Next SC city to hit 100,000

[krazeeboi]

It seems as though N. Chuck is a shoo-in to hit the six-figure population mark next in SC, possibly by the next census. At this point, we only have Columbia and Charleston above 100K. So excluding the olde north city, which city will be the next to do it?

[sonofaque86]

Rock Hill (due to mad crazy annexations) with Mount Pleasant close behind

[MikesLogic]

Rock Hill, would have been Mt. P based on growth rates but they put in a growth cap.

[monsoon]

I would say Myrtle Beach based on the construction of condos being built there.

In regards to Rock Hill, unfortunately the growing part is the area between Rock Hill and Charlotte which is not part of Rock Hill city.

[UrbanSoutherner]

Without a city-county consolidation of some sort, I do not see any of these cities reaching 100,000 without taking a long time to do it. They are just to too small and restricted by SC's laws. The largest of these would have to nearly double in size to reach 100,000. The only two that could have any chance I agree are Rock Hill or Mount Pleasant. Myrtle Beach would have to grow by 75,000 people. That is unlikely to happen for decades if ever unless there is some sort of consolidation effort. Augusta GA is instructive there. The city has only 40,000 or so even though the urgan and metro areas are much larger. The city was having trouble annexing anything. Plus, once you allow your city to get that small relative to the urban or metro area, it is very difficult to ever catch up so to speak by piecemeal annexations. So, they did the city-county consolidation deal with Richmond County.

[sonofaque86]

Rock Hill City's population grew from 43k to nearly 50k in 90s-00...Now, the census estimates it to be 57,902 which was only 2004! 8,000 ppl in 4 years....So the next census it'll be around 67-70k...I don't think any city with the same amount of population grew that fast besides Mt. Pleasant. The only way Greenville would possibly catch up again is if they did more aggressive annexations or city-county conslidation

[The_sandlapper]

Yeah I'd probablly say the Hill, then Mt. Pleasant, followed by Myrtle if it aggressively annexed I would think it would come around sooner.

[g-man430]

Greenville will reach 100,000 first i think. Also, Greenville really shouldn't be on this poll seeing how the metro area has over 1 million people. The only reason Greenville has 56,000 people is because the city area is 16 square miles. If Greenville was the size of Columbia or Charleston is Square Miles, Greenville would be larger in population than Charleston or Columbia.

[teshadoh]

g-man, all of us SCers know the story of Greenville, so no need to defend her

In my humble view - this is a tough pick to make, because besides N Charleston it will most likely be several decades before we have another 100k city. But as for the picks:

Myrtle Beach - not anytime that I can see, the city does seem to be a dud. Because the city has been expected to peak 25k for 15 years, but so far Greenwood has a better shot than Myrtle Beach. I kid. But despite all the swamp fill development, the city hasn't been able to annex anything much. In fact where the real growth is - between MB & Conway, Conway has the upper hand in annexing the land where the actual 12 month residents live. Most of the condos along MB will not be filled with people filling out census forms, those people will be filling them out in Gastonia, Toledo, or whever else people that like MB live.

Mt Pleasant - not a bad possibility, though the town may be running out of room to the northeast the suburb will likely remain a prime suburban location. So perhaps additional infill will occur, in that case Mt Pleasant looks to have a good shot.

Greenville - I don't think so. Not because development isn't occuring, but because like larger cities - the new residents will be mostly singles & young couples. Greenville would need to annex additional land, which appears unlikely.

Spartanburg - similar story to Greenville, but the big question will be if or whenever the town can hit 50k.

Rock Hill - I think Mt Pleasant has a better shot, but RH is still a consideration - in a few decades. Much of the growth in York Co has been in Fort Mill, but has mainly attracted a specific demographic group. RH will remain the affordable lower / middle income exurb for years, which is why much of the growth is occuring directly surrounding RH. But as Charlotte grows larger - the sattelite towns will boom, & RH might be a surprise, especially as it annexes land to the south, east & west before development occurs.

But a surprise not many may consider - Blufton. It has been slated for major retirement communities, not to mention it has become a popular second choice home to Hilton Head. As the baby boom generation retires, towns like Blufton will boom with low cost developments that provide a hint of the ocean for those unable to afford living on the beach. For that matter, Conway could also be a consideration - in fact I think Conway will likely hit 100k sooner than Myrtle Beach, just because like most coastal tourist towns - the population is far from permenant.

[upstate29650]

teshadoh stole my thunder!

Bluffton is the dark horse. About 5 or so years ago, they annexed a huge tract of land that was primarily forests. This annexation made Bluffton the 5th largest city in SC (in land area). The strip of US 278 between Hardeeville & Hilton Head (which is Bluffton) is growing like wildfire, and has been for 5 years at least. Even up & down SC 170, growth is booming. Also, Sun City Hilton Head is located here.

I wouldn't be shocked at all to see one continuous "city" from Beaufort to Savannah one day.

[monsoon]

Most of the condos along MB will not be filled with people filling out census forms, those people will be filling them out in Gastonia, Toledo, or whever else people that like MB live.

True and I have said this before. If Myrtle Beach were allowed to count transient residents, it would be, by far, the most populous city in the state.

[motonenterprises]

Everyone here knows that Greenville is realistically over the 100k mark. So all of these cities that think that they are close to or larger than Greenville know the truth if they have visited here. Until SC fixes these annexation laws perhaps the question should be "which SC urban area will be next to hit 100k?"

[monsoon]

Well you make a good point as it's never good to try and compare "cities" as what comprises a city from a legal perspective differs in every locality.

[motonenterprises]

agreed! These laws have definetly hurt Greenville worst.

[Charleston native]

After reading teshadoh's post, I'm going to go out on a limb here and vote for Conway. I've visited the area several times lately, and housing developments are sprouting all over in Conway, Socastee, and western parts of MB. If Conway would get on the ball, it could annex many areas and become the major city of the Grand Strand (it should be, after all it is the county seat!) with a population of 100K.

[sonofaque86]

Columbia's and Charleston's population is skewed just as Greenville's is...Columbia and Charleston are really around the 250k-300k mark

[vicupstate]

teshadoh stole my thunder!

Bluffton is the dark horse. About 5 or so years ago, they annexed a huge tract of land that was primarily forests. This annexation made Bluffton the 5th largest city in SC (in land area). The strip of US 278 between Hardeeville & Hilton Head (which is Bluffton) is growing like wildfire, and has been for 5 years at least. Even up & down SC 170, growth is booming. Also, Sun City Hilton Head is located here.

I wouldn't be shocked at all to see one continuous "city" from Beaufort to Savannah one day.

Hardeeville, just recently did the same thing. I drove through it on I-95 recently. The town limits stretch from mile mark 1 or 2 to about 12 now. However, I don't see either Bluffton or Hardeeville being the next 100,000. I would give Rock Hill the edge over Mt. Pleasant. Mainly because Mt. Pleasant caps it's growth and it looks like growth will stop once M.P. reaches the Francis Marion National Forest.

P.S. Spartanburg is not really a viable candidate, as it has been losing population for several decades, and Greenville has only recently stopped that trend. [City Limits ONLY, of course]

[krazeeboi]

Well, first of all, I think it's crazy that the next SC city to hit 100,000 will be a SUBURB and not a major/mid-major city.

Secondly, I do think that it will be Rock Hill. The city has really made progress in annexations and infill within the past few years. I'm hoping that the population of the city will exceed Concord's soon so that it can reclaim its rightful place in the Charlotte MSA designation.

[monsoon]

After reading teshadoh's post, I'm going to go out on a limb here and vote for Conway. I've visited the area several times lately, and housing developments are sprouting all over in Conway, Socastee, and western parts of MB. If Conway would get on the ball, it could annex many areas and become the major city of the Grand Strand (it should be, after all it is the county seat!) with a population of 100K.

Well I used to live in Conway and I have friends and relatives living there today, and its major problem in this regard is that almost 100% of the development is very low density stuff. Also the problem with the idea of living in Conway to work in Myrtle Beach, is that if you decide to do this, there is no easy way to commute into Myrtle Beach to get to that job. There are only 3 bridges across the intercoastal waterway between Georgetown and Little River (50 miles) and they are hopelessly jammed with traffic. (Myrtle Beach is an island)

Thus most people who work in Myrtle Beach either tend to live on the Myrtle Beach side, or they are bussed in from much further away than Conway from depressed areas of SC. I would say that Conway has a good ways to go before it even reaches the level of Florence.

[Charleston native]

Well I used to live in Conway and I have friends and relatives living there today, and its major problem in this regard is that almost 100% of the development is very low density stuff. Also the problem with the idea of living in Conway to work in Myrtle Beach, is that if you decide to do this, there is no easy way to commute into Myrtle Beach to get to that job. There are only 3 bridges across the intercoastal waterway between Georgetown and Little River (50 miles) and they are hopelessly jammed with traffic. (Myrtle Beach is an island)

Thus most people who work in Myrtle Beach either tend to live on the Myrtle Beach side, or they are bussed in from much further away than Conway from depressed areas of SC. I would say that Conway has a good ways to go before it even reaches the level of Florence.

What about the other highway projects being currently built in MB such as the Carolina Parkway and the future I-73? Won't those increase accessibility to MB and encourage development in and around Conway?

[teshadoh]

I also think much of Conway's future development will be retirement communities. It will be cheaper to build / live in the interior of Horry Co but provide access to what many retirees like about the area - outlet shopping & golf courses. And most importantly the sun & heat.

We will have a better idea in 10 years what will happen, but there coastal areas will experience massive population gains. Particularly coastal GA & SC will be innundated with similar developments that are occuring in central & north Florida. Just a example - near my wife's grandparents is a retirement village called The Villages in Florida. In roughly 10 years, it has grown to over 50,000 people with plans to fully develop over 100,000. These are the unexpected projects that will totally transfrom the political & economic infrastructure of small states like SC.

[monsoon]

What about the other highway projects being currently built in MB such as the Carolina Parkway and the future I-73? Won't those increase accessibility to MB and encourage development in and around Conway?

The Carolina Parkway does not cross the Intercoastal. You have to get onto Veteran's highway for that which is one of the 3 bridges that I was referring to. The Veterans bridge was the first one built into Myrtle Beach since 1960 and that road is already overloaded at places. It should be also noted the Veteran's highway completely by passes Conway. Hwy 73 may help, but it is a long ways off and I get the idea it is designed to deliver tourists to Myrtle Beach.

I also think much of Conway's future development will be retirement communities. It will be cheaper to build / live in the interior of Horry Co but provide access to what many retirees like about the area - outlet shopping & golf courses. And most importantly the sun & heat

The vast majority of Horry around Conway is swamp and difficult to build on. I realize they have drained some of it, but my guess is most of the growth is coming from normal local growth not related to Myrtle Beach. Most retirees that retire to the area want to be in Myrtle Beach and not Conway because of the huge number of programs devoted to retirement that simply don't exist in the center part of the county. The Myrtle Beach senior center for example has over 6500 members vs about 300 or so for Conway/Aynor.

[motonenterprises]

Columbia's and Charleston's population is skewed just as Greenville's is...Columbia and Charleston are really around the 250k-300k mark

But not by nearly as much. Greenville is really around 300k too, so don't try that one.

[sonofaque86]

But not by nearly as much. Greenville is really around 300k too, so don't try that one.

[Skyliner]

Columbia's and Charleston's population is skewed just as Greenville's is...Columbia and Charleston are really around the 250k-300k mark

Why not just consolidate the whole county (Greenville, Richland, Charleston) then? That's the only way we (SC) can reach these numbers today.