What NWA City will be the first to reach 100,000?

[mcheiss]

Well guys, NWA is growing at an astounding rate. It won't be for a while before a city reaches 100,000, but what city do you guys think will reach it first?

Rogers?

Fayetteville?

Springdale?

Each city has an equal opportunity to reach 100,000, but the question is, which will reach 100,000 first.

[Mith242]

Hard to say. While Fayetteville is the closest I also think it's the slowest growing city in the metro. So much population growth is taking place in Benton County and for that matter Springdale in Washington County. I like to think of Fayetteville being the most 'city-like' of all the NWA cities. But the stricter building codes and such are done not just to ensure a nice looking city but I think it's also done to help slow growth and make it more manageable. Springdale seems to be growing at a very fast pace but I have to think it's got to slow down there at some point. While it has some of the cheaper housing in the area there just isn't a lot of amenities in the cities compared to other NWA cities. So much is going on in Benton County in particular in Rogers. To be honest I think in a lot of ways Rogers seems best prepared for the growth. It had a very aggressive plan that seems to be working very well for it. But much of it is still in the early stages so it's hard to judge just how well it will work and if Rogers could catch up and pass some of the other NWA cities.

[mcheiss]

I did say Rogers, because there are dozens of nice subdivisions currently under construction in the City. The City is going through quite a boom, but Real Estate is getting harder and harder to come by in Rogers, so Rogers is going to have to annex some land to the west and south of it to survive. If Bentonville and Lowell weren't booming right now, the city would probably reach 100,000 within 10 years. Even though Fayetteville is much higher up, I do see Rogers surpassing them in the future. Although Springdale could easily reach 100,000 a lot faster than Rogers, Springdale doesn't have much other than residential development going for them, and their housing market should taper off within the next 5-8 years.

[Mith242]

I haven't voted yet for now as I think about it some more but I think at the moment I'd have to lean to Rogers. I just could really see a lot more happening after this first big wave of developments get built. I also think that Springdale is going to slow down at some point. And I just don't think Fayetteville wants to hit 100,000 anytime soon. I'm sure people aren't necessarily opposed to it but they're going to want to have controlled growth. That just makes me think there's a good chance that someone will eventually pass up Fayetteville permanently in the population category.

[mcheiss]

Fayetteville has a lot going for it, and in my opinion, is planning a lot better than Rogers or any other NWA city. Take a look at the Condo market there, and the downtown, and the rest of the city.

[Mith242]

Fayetteville has a lot going for it, and in my opinion, is planning a lot better than Rogers or any other NWA city. Take a look at the Condo market there, and the downtown, and the rest of the city.

I certainly agree, but that also comes from more controlled growth which usually also means slower growth. At least compared to the other NWA cities. I suppose to other areas, Fayetteville could still be considered to be growing at a pretty fast pace.

[razorbackfan]

I think Fayetteville will hit 100,000 first....although the growth there is not as great as Rogers or Springdale, when the speical census is announced they are saying Fay. will be around 72,000. With the growth the UofA is going through (2010 they want to have 22,500 students, compared to the 17,000) I don't see that Rogers or Springdale will pass Fayetteville anytime soon unless some of the smaller cities merge with Rogers or Springdale, or if either of the cities plan to Annex.

[Mith242]

I think Fayetteville will hit 100,000 first....although the growth there is not as great as Rogers or Springdale, when the speical census is announced they are saying Fay. will be around 72,000. With the growth the UofA is going through (2010 they want to have 22,500 students, compared to the 17,000) I don't see that Rogers or Springdale will pass Fayetteville anytime soon unless some of the smaller cities merge with Rogers or Springdale, or if either of the cities plan to Annex.

Yeah if we could count students then Fayetteville would certainly hit 100,000 first. But the students aren't classified as full time residents so they aren't counted. Unless they were already from the city. I wonder if some students get missed in the census because their students but were already living here. I guess a more logical decision can be reached after the special census numbers come out later this year. I'm not going with Springdale but I wouldn't count them out either. Look at the surge in population they've had even since the 2000 census. But I am curious to see the numbers from the other cities.

[Mith242]

I still haven't voted yet. But apparently most people think Fayetteville will be the one to do it. Matt were you the one Rogers vote?

[NCB]

I don't live up there, so I am not very familiar with the growth going on, but I chose Fayetteville just because of the current population and the growth rate. Though from looking at growth rates in that area, it looks like by the time Fayetteville reaches 100K, some of the other NWA cities wouldn't be far behind.

[mcheiss]

I still haven't voted yet. But apparently most people think Fayetteville will be the one to do it. Matt were you the one Rogers vote?

Yeah, I voted Rogers, but this could be 30+ years down the line, I think Rogers is going to continue to grow at exponential rates.

[Mith242]

Yeah, I voted Rogers, but this could be 30+ years down the line, I think Rogers is going to continue to grow at exponential rates.

At the way things are going I think whichever city does it will do it sooner than that. Unless there's some sort of unforseen downturn in the economy here.

[mcheiss]

At the way things are going I think whichever city does it will do it sooner than that. Unless there's some sort of unforseen downturn in the economy here.

With talks of an IT Boom consisting of 10,000+ jobs, Continued Growth in Wal-Mart, Possible Disney Park, I think NWA will be good for the future.

[Mith242]

With talks of an IT Boom consisting of 10,000+ jobs, Continued Growth in Wal-Mart, Possible Disney Park, I think NWA will be good for the future.

I don't guess I realized the IT boom could possibly be that big.

[mcheiss]

I don't guess I realized the IT boom could possibly be that big.

I'm hoping it does.

But of course, none of these are set in stone yet. It would be great if all of those continued to hapen, as it would make NWA's job economy very diversified.

[Aporkalypse]

I don't think that any of the cities will reach the milestone as quickly as most people here think but I think ultimately it will be Fayetteville. Even if growth slows there it will continue to have steady growth because of its role as a major college town. I still think we'll see a shift to the smaller communities in NWA and I think Springdale will have big growth issues and experience a decline after another decade of growth. Rogers and Bentonville will continue at good pace but they just have to far to go to get to six figures.

I don't see IT meaning more than a few jobs targeted specifically at a couple of large NWA companies. NWA doesn't have the people needed to fill the jobs and right now IT is struggling across the country. There are thousands of unemployed IT people down here in Dallas that would work for modest wages. NWA's real job growth will continue to be Wal-Mart, its vendors, and industries catering to them.

[masons_dad1]

I don't think that any of the cities will reach the milestone as quickly as most people here think but I think ultimately it will be Fayetteville. Even if growth slows there it will continue to have steady growth because of its role as a major college town. I still think we'll see a shift to the smaller communities in NWA and I think Springdale will have big growth issues and experience a decline after another decade of growth. Rogers and Bentonville will continue at good pace but they just have to far to go to get to six figures.

I don't see IT meaning more than a few jobs targeted specifically at a couple of large NWA companies. NWA doesn't have the people needed to fill the jobs and right now IT is struggling across the country. There are thousands of unemployed IT people down here in Dallas that would work for modest wages. NWA's real job growth will continue to be Wal-Mart, its vendors, and industries catering to them.

A couple big companies just shut down their Call Centers in St. Pete Florida recently... 2,000 jobs lost. Another big company down there is trying to make up 600 of those jobs in their Call Center but if the Call Center capitol is laying off Call Center jobs that's pretty much how it is across the country.

[masons_dad1]

Here's the stats for the biggest cities in NWA:

Fayetteville

Population (year 2000): 58,047, Est. population in July 2004: 64,190 (+10.6% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +15,034 (+35.0%).

Could reach 100,000 population in 18 years.

Bentonville

Population (year 2000): 19,730, Est. population in July 2004: 27,765 (+40.7% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +7,709 (+64.1%).

Could reach 100,000 Population in 14 years.

Rogers

Population (year 2000): 38,829, Est. population in July 2004: 44,885 (+15.6% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +13,155 (+51.2%).

Could reach 100,000 population in 22 years.

Springdale

Population (year 2000): 45,798, Est. population in July 2004: 55,971 (+22.2% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +15,317 (+50.3%).

Could reach 100,000 population in 15 years.

These calculations are based on current trends, although Bentonville has Centerton, Highfill and Bella Vista as possible annexations, which are among the 3 fastest growing cities in the country.

[Aporkalypse]

Here's the stats for the biggest cities in NWA:

Fayetteville

Population (year 2000): 58,047, Est. population in July 2004: 64,190 (+10.6% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +15,034 (+35.0%).

Could reach 100,000 population in 18 years.

Bentonville

Population (year 2000): 19,730, Est. population in July 2004: 27,765 (+40.7% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +7,709 (+64.1%).

Could reach 100,000 Population in 14 years.

Rogers

Population (year 2000): 38,829, Est. population in July 2004: 44,885 (+15.6% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +13,155 (+51.2%).

Could reach 100,000 population in 22 years.

Springdale

Population (year 2000): 45,798, Est. population in July 2004: 55,971 (+22.2% change)

Population change in the 1990s: +15,317 (+50.3%).

Could reach 100,000 population in 15 years.

These calculations are based on current trends, although Bentonville has Centerton, Highfill and Bella Vista as possible annexations, which are among the 3 fastest growing cities in the country.

Bella Vista won't allow itself to be annexed though if all 3 of those communities actually were annexed I would change my vote to Bentonville as well. Aren't all 3 of those incorporated?

[masons_dad1]

Bella Vista won't allow itself to be annexed though if all 3 of those communities actually were annexed I would change my vote to Bentonville as well. Aren't all 3 of those incorporated?

Bella Vista isn't incorporated into Bentonville but I believe Centerton is... not sure about Highfill... although Centerton and Highfill are considered to be West Bentonville.

[Mith242]

Bella Vista isn't incorporated into Bentonville but I believe Centerton is... not sure about Highfill... although Centerton and Highfill are considered to be West Bentonville.

What about Lowell and Rogers? Although I'm not sure if these towns will be so willing to be annexed. I think they will have to do it earlier on than later. The longer their independant and on their own the less I would think they'd want to be annexed by another city.

[mcheiss]

What about Lowell and Rogers? Although I'm not sure if these towns will be so willing to be annexed. I think they will have to do it earlier on than later. The longer their independant and on their own the less I would think they'd want to be annexed by another city.

I could possibly see Lowell annexing into Rogers simply because Lowell is losing Sales Tax and Revenue to Rogers. Also, the residents of Lowell may want to be annexed into Rogers for better Municipal Services.

[masons_dad1]

I could possibly see Lowell annexing into Rogers simply because Lowell is losing Sales Tax and Revenue to Rogers. Also, the residents of Lowell may want to be annexed into Rogers for better Municipal Services.

Lowell may as well be annexed by Rogers... they already share the same Chamber of Commerce. I live a few inches inside Little Flock city limits and I'm not considered a Rogers resident so I think it's time for Little Flock to get annexed by Rogers.

[mcheiss]

Lowell may as well be annexed by Rogers... they already share the same Chamber of Commerce. I live a few inches inside Little Flock city limits and I'm not considered a Rogers resident so I think it's time for Little Flock to get annexed by Rogers.

I agree.

Wasn't there a controversy last year concerning a Little Flock Resident being zoned into Rogers City Limits and the whole town got erupted?

[Aporkalypse]

I agree.

Wasn't there a controversy last year concerning a Little Flock Resident being zoned into Rogers City Limits and the whole town got erupted?

I remember that, it was a huge deal.

I don't think Lowell will allows itself to be annexed. In the long run I think its central location and abundance of land will help give it a leg up on its neighbors for developments and I think in a decade it will be a more upscale haven than Springdale and Rogers.