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Nashville Homes Sales Set Record In 2005

smeagolsfree

By smeagolsfree,
in Nashville

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Hankster

Hankster 6

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Hmmmm. Let's see. Home sales are up 6.5% for the year, up 9.3% for the 4th Qtr, and up a whopping 16.5% for December. Sounds like the Nashville market is actually improving while many other home sales markets around the country are in decline.

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ATLBrain

ATLBrain 1

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According to figures from a friend who has been very accurate in the past. Estimates for 2010 are:

Nashville/Davidson Co.: 640,000

Eight County (old) MSA: 1,570,000

Thirteen County (new) MSA: 1,720,000

Thirteen County and Maury and Montgomery: 1,970,000

This guy is a great man, but he's so weird that his hobby is looking up building permits from year to year and keeping running estimates for the whole state. He does not work for the Dept. of Commerce either (I said weird)!

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AceMentor

AceMentor 0

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Over the 2,000,000 mark? Whew! Thats pushing it. That would be amazing though.

With the current numbers, it may be possible. All I really want is for the Nashville MSA to get bigger tha Charlotte's so I can stick it in some of my N.C. friends faces. (They always brag about how Charlotte is the next atlanta and nashville will always be some redneck town). <_<

According to figures from a friend who has been very accurate in the past. Estimates for 2010 are:

Nashville/Davidson Co.: 640,000

Eight County (old) MSA: 1,570,000

Thirteen County (new) MSA: 1,720,000

Thirteen County and Maury and Montgomery: 1,970,000

This guy is a great man, but he's so weird that his hobby is looking up building permits from year to year and keeping running estimates for the whole state. He does not work for the Dept. of Commerce either (I said weird)!

Has he included the Clarksville estimates or are those just present estimates (If I'm not mistaken, the present montgomery county MSA is 250,000 or something in that range. It doesn't look as though those #'s have changed much.

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Hankster

Hankster 6

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According to figures from a friend who has been very accurate in the past. Estimates for 2010 are:

Nashville/Davidson Co.: 640,000

Eight County (old) MSA: 1,570,000

Thirteen County (new) MSA: 1,720,000

Thirteen County and Maury and Montgomery: 1,970,000

This guy is a great man, but he's so weird that his hobby is looking up building permits from year to year and keeping running estimates for the whole state. He does not work for the Dept. of Commerce either (I said weird)!

He's my kind of a weird guy. Since there may be evidence that the growth in the area may be accelerating, has he taken that into account, or has he projected based on current growth trends? With accelerating growth, that 2 Million mark really is not too far in the future. That's a figure that pretty well boggles my mind. Once we reach that number, growth will really NEED to start concentrating more in the central core (Davidson Co.) or we will find ourselves more and more in the same predicament as Atlanta...a sprawling sea of seemingly endless suburbia. That's my big worry.

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it's just dave

it's just dave 8

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At least it's happening now and not when Atlanta's big spread began. We'll continue to sprawl, but the mindset of the people and the city leaders is different, more centrically focused than in recent decades. So, even with the 'burbs spreading out far and wide, downtown is assured more attention than in the past.

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AceMentor

AceMentor 0

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Also, nashville is an older city in the sense that it has been medium sized city longer than atlanta and it has I guess you could say "more experience". If things go as plan, We will establisha a strong central core while also greatly increasing our metro. Anyone think with this growth will come with some airport expansion, introduction of a lrt/brt and although we have enough already, more national attention?

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ATLBrain

ATLBrain 1

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He's my kind of a weird guy. Since there may be evidence that the growth in the area may be accelerating, has he taken that into account, or has he projected based on current growth trends? With accelerating growth, that 2 Million mark really is not too far in the future. That's a figure that pretty well boggles my mind. Once we reach that number, growth will really NEED to start concentrating more in the central core (Davidson Co.) or we will find ourselves more and more in the same predicament as Atlanta...a sprawling sea of seemingly endless suburbia. That's my big worry.

I know he accounts for some kind of acceleration, but I don't know what/how. He mentioned that he uses charts from previous periods and has some kind of algorithm (yep, that's right). Sorry, I didn't follow him more closely. He knows his stuff... he's been doing it for about 50 years. His notes for various states over that period are so close to the actual contemporaneous census figures. If it had been allowed by the Constitution, the Census Bureau could have had him do all the states and they couldn't have been more accurate. Plus, they would have saved a lot of money. But they gotta count. On that note, he said that some states are still way over what they should be according to their raw statistics. Sometimes they're caught in the next cycle. Most of the time, they're not (as they're used as the baseline for the next).

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Rural King

Rural King 2

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^^ Just Montgomery County @ around 160,000 (not the MSA which includes a couple of other counties ... 1 in KY I think)... and Maury @ 90,000 (but I think he may be underestimating that with Spring Hill).

Clarskville's MSA consists of four counties, two in Tennessee and two in Kentucky. They are Montgomery (Clarksville) and Stewart (Dover) in Tennessee, and Christian (Hopkinsville) and Trigg (Cadiz) in Kentucky. I usually see it listed as the Clarksville-Hopkinsville MSA, as Hopkinsville is a significant city, being roughly the same size as Paducah.

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Hankster

Hankster 6

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I know he accounts for some kind of acceleration, but I don't know what/how. He mentioned that he uses charts from previous periods and has some kind of algorithm (yep, that's right). Sorry, I didn't follow him more closely. He knows his stuff... he's been doing it for about 50 years. His notes for various states over that period are so close to the actual contemporaneous census figures. If it had been allowed by the Constitution, the Census Bureau could have had him do all the states and they couldn't have been more accurate. Plus, they would have saved a lot of money. But they gotta count. On that note, he said that some states are still way over what they should be according to their raw statistics. Sometimes they're caught in the next cycle. Most of the time, they're not (as they're used as the baseline for the next).

What you're describing is absolutely fascinating to me. So you're telling me that this one guy for the past 50 years is far more accurate than the census bureau with all their manpower and fancy computers and monsterous budget on pretty much all the population estimates. I would love to have a copy of all of his latest estimates. He may be weird, but if what you're telling me is true, he's an absolute genius.

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ATLBrain

ATLBrain 1

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^^ He's definitely a genius. He's an actuary by training/trade and never had kids. So he and his wife just travel around the country in their retirement. He does have his formulae on computer now and ownloads stats regularly. I guess you can call the census trend thing his hobby.

You're right about the Census Bureau and their equipment and staff. But even with the best intentions, the population count can (and does) get politicized. After all, how many states literally fought over getting the 2 reapportioned congressional seats after 2000 came out? There is a lot of oversight, and my friend has said that they're very good there. He said that you should always be skeptical of mid-census estimates.

I wish I knew more about how he gets his figures. He's even pointed out some discrepancies between county numbers and total state populations that were based on different assumptions (e.g. members per household). I'll try to see what else I can glean from him next time I'm up in Chattanooga.

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Hankster

Hankster 6

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I wish I knew more about how he gets his figures. He's even pointed out some discrepancies between county numbers and total state populations that were based on different assumptions (e.g. members per household). I'll try to see what else I can glean from him next time I'm up in Chattanooga.

Is he from Chattanooga? So am I. I'd love to have a chat with him some day about his "hobby".

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HABANERO7

HABANERO7 0

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According to figures from a friend who has been very accurate in the past. Estimates for 2010 are:

Nashville/Davidson Co.: 640,000

Eight County (old) MSA: 1,570,000

Thirteen County (new) MSA: 1,720,000

Thirteen County and Maury and Montgomery: 1,970,000

This guy is a great man, but he's so weird that his hobby is looking up building permits from year to year and keeping running estimates for the whole state. He does not work for the Dept. of Commerce either (I said weird)!

Hey I said 630,000-650,000... wooo hooo

Not to get off subject with the Nashville growth thing, but you are saying this guy is really good at calculating these figures and giving good accurate estimates... with this said, would you be able to find out his opinion on whether Madison and Bradley counties will indeed cross the 100,000 mark by 2010? They are after all the 2 closest counties to the mark with Wilson County already there now by most estimates.

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