Richmond off-topic postings

[Wahoo 07]

Book recommendation for the board:  "The Life and Death of Great American Cities" by Jane Jacobs.  Fascinating read.  It makes me think that neighborhoods like Monroe Ward are well positioned for the future and others will continue to stay at a high level.  It certainly gives the reader a lot to consider vis-a-vis the Navy Hill redevelopment plan.

[wrldcoupe4]

Yep, an oldie but a goodie.  Really got me passionate about urban planning and development.  She would have been adamantly against the city center project of the 60s and 70s that created the wasteland north of broad which includes city hall and the coliseum. She’d probably be disappointed in the new plan (not organic enough), but it’s a big improvement over what the planners envisioned back then. 

[Shakman]

Definitely a great book.  It was one of our must reads while in college.  

[RiverYuppy]

Is anybody else excited for the census? 

 

RTD had an article about population growth in the RVA region. 

 

Quote

While statewide growth begins to slow, Chesterfield, Henrico and Hanover counties and the city of Richmond will continue to grow, exemplifying an expanding urban-rural divide, according to new population projections for 2020 to 2040 from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

...

Chesterfield County is projected to grow 22.5% over the next two decades, moving from about 350,000 residents in 2020 to 430,000 in 2040. Henrico County is projected to grow 17.2%, moving from around 330,000 residents to 390,000. Hanover County’s population is projected to grow 16.9%, from about 109,000 people in 2020 to nearly 128,000 by 2040.

The city of Richmond’s population is projected to grow 9.7% over the next 20 years, going from 230,000 to 255,000 residents.

Getting to 255,000 in 20 years is good growth ... but it just seems a bit lackluster. 

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by RiverYuppy

[vaceltic]

32 minutes ago, RiverYuppy said:

Is anybody else excited for the census? 

 

RTD had an article about population growth in the RVA region. 

 

Getting to 255,000 in 20 years is good growth ... but it just seems a bit lackluster. 

 

Their population projections for the City (2010 -2020) after the 2010 Census were that Richmond would slightly lose population, so I would take these estimates with a grain of salt.

[RiverYuppy]

It looks like that area of between Chamberlayne and Lombardy next to VUU is getting rezoned as part of the neighborhood plan.  They have signs up about the rezoning so I called.  They said they were changing it to allow for higher density apartments and professional businesses. 

 

Hopefully they can start knocking down those motels and building some of those apartments I have been hearing about. 

Edited July 3, 2019 by RiverYuppy

[RiverYuppy]

Some news regarding Petersburg.

Petersburg warehouse buildings to be converted into artist lofts, workforce housing.

Pretty big news for Petersburg.  Also there seems to be a lot of work going on along Sycamore street, which is the main drag.  I'll try to snap some pictures next time I'm there. 

 

Last year I believe Petersburg was one of the only localities in the region to lose residents and have home prices drop.  I wonder if it finally hit bottom and a rise is coming?

[Shakman]

During the BRAC realignment, Fort Lee was expanded.  Back then I thought Petersburg would turn around.

[eandslee]

Couldn’t find a good place to paste this link, but this Webcam has an AWESOME view!  I just discovered it:

https://public.workzonecam.com/projects/purcell/2525mainst/time-lapse/archive?archiveId=Home

Edited July 16, 2019 by eandslee

[Shakman]

Great find.  Four tower cranes from this webcam view.

[Brent114]

That is a great vantage point. 

[Henrico Weather]

Not Richmond related, but I know some of you guys like big cranes. Enjoy!  Big one

Twitter me - @HenricoWxGeek 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Henrico Weather

[eandslee]

Does anyone know anything about this building?  Looks like a building that was planned for Richmond back in 1929, but was never built (I think?).  Really looks cool.  Check it out:

https://www.stcroixarchitecture.com/products/american-bank-and-trust-company-building-richmond-va-1929-original-plan-marcellus-f-wright

[wrldcoupe4]

Must have been axed due to the Great Depression. Interesting. I’ve never seen it before. 

[RVA-Is-The-Best]

If it interests anybody else, and you haven't seen it yet; Google Street View has updated with May 2019 imagery for the area. First thing I did was check some of the major developments I've been following, like Main2323

[RiverYuppy]

I can't find where, but I remember reading over some commercial real estate leasing notices and saw the census was getting some office space downtown. 

It got me thinking about the 2020 census.

The census bureau said we had 204,214 people in 2010.  It estimates 228,783 in 2018.  

However, if we look year to year the estimates seem to indicate that growth started to slow around 2016.

What do y'all think about the slowdown in population growth compared to that earlier in the decade?

What do you think the official count will be in 2020?  Any other statistics you're interested in?  Jobs, age, income, units of housing, etc?

[wrldcoupe4]

I have to be honest, it sure feels like the city’s population has been growing at a faster rate since 2016 than before. There is new development is virtually every neighborhood with thousands of units always delivering and in the pipeline. 

[Brent114]

I agree with coupe.  The rate definitely seems to be increasing.  There are a lot of large projects that will be completed by 2020.  I’m guessing there will be around 235,000 people in 2020. 

[vaceltic]

The census and Weldon Cooper center we’re wrong about 2010 projections. They assumed a continued population loss for Richmond when we actually gained after the count was in. I’m hopeful the same will happen - that the census is undercounting, not capturing the magnitude the shift of millennials moving from suburbs to urban areas is having on Richmond. 

[RiverYuppy]

16 hours ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

I have to be honest, it sure feels like the city’s population has been growing at a faster rate since 2016 than before. There is new development is virtually every neighborhood with thousands of units always delivering and in the pipeline. 

I agree it feels like it has picked up.

I wonder what is causing their lower estimates.  I looked up the methodology and they said it is essentially 2010 base + births + migration - deaths, where migration is mainly determined by tax filings. 

I wonder if gentrification bringing in all the empty nesters is pushing down the birth rate and impacting the statistic somehow?

Also, maybe students distort the stats because many don't have tax filings.  We do have 4 universities with a combined enrollment between 35-40k.

 

I would love to see 235k+ in the 2020 census.  

They also estimate Norfolk to have gone from 242k in 2010 to 244k in 2018. However, visiting there it feels a lot smaller than RVA.  I was honestly surprised to look up their population and see a higher number than ours.

[rjp212]

We might have hit a temporary slow down as housing inventory catches up.  If you think about it, not a lot of large projects opened between 2016 - 2018 and most of the existing housing is being replaced from large households to smaller households.  The construction we see now, should be open in the next year or so and that could lead to another boost.  While I admit, I have only lived here since 2017,  the city definitely feels to be building at the quickest rate in recent history.

Edit:  I've been in Real Estate and Property Management for years.  When I used to show rentals here in town, I would be astonished with how many people would show up to the Open House and how quickly they would rent out.  My apartment complex in Scotts Addition had a waiting list this time last year. 

Edited August 22, 2019 by rjp212

[Icetera]

9 minutes ago, rjp212 said:

We might have hit a temporary slow down as housing inventory catches up.  If you think about it, not a lot of large projects opened between 2016 - 2018 and most of the existing housing is being replaced from large households to smaller households.  The construction we see now, should be open in the next year or so and that could lead to another boost.  While I admit, I have only lived here since 2017,  the city definitely feels to be building at the quickest rate in recent history.

This is exactly what I was thinking.  In the past couple years they have not been able to build them fast enough to fill the demand.  Quite a few large projects opened this year with more coming on next year so we may see a bump again.

[RiverYuppy]

There is a sign in front of the abandoned hotel building in petersburg now. Not sure how serious it is considering there isn't a named hotel lined up to fill it. 

[Icetera]

22 minutes ago, Hike said:

we looked at part of the project in February/March and at the time, which looks like the image here, it was a Cambria Hotel - the link is here for the hotel brand.  https://www.choicehotels.com/cambria

Weren't they talking about removing the top two floors in prior plans?  This rendering suggests otherwise

[RiverYuppy]

22 minutes ago, Hike said:

we looked at part of the project in February/March and at the time, which looks like the image here, it was a Cambria Hotel - the link is here for the hotel brand.  https://www.choicehotels.com/cambria

Nice!  I figured there wasn't one considering the sign on the building just says "HOTEL."

It would be great for Petersburg if they follow through.