Tennessee Population Growth Accelerating

[Hankster]

The Census Bureau has released new estimates for state populations in 2005. These new estimates indicate that population increases thruoghout Tennessee are beginning to accelerate to higher growth rates. Here are the figures:

April 1, 2000 Census.....5,689,283

July 1, 2000 Estimate....5,703,052

July 1, 2001 Estimate....5,746,831....43,779 Increase over 2000....0.8% Increase

July 1, 2002 Estimate....5,790,312....43,481 Increase over 2001....0.8% Increase

July 1, 2003 Estimate....5,841,585....51,273 Increase over 2002....0.9% Increase

July 1, 2004 Estimate....5,893,298....51,713 Increase over 2003....0.9% Increase

July 1, 2005 Estimate....5,962,959....69,661 Increase over 2004....1.2% Increase

This means that estimated population growth in many of Tennessee's counties and cities will be up substantially when the next figures are released.

[cheeriokid61]

For comparison's sake, what are the numbers for the other Southern states?

[Hankster]

For comparison's sake, what are the numbers for the other Southern states?

Here are the numbers in 2004 & 2005 for the other Southern states as well as Tennessee for comparison:

Alabama.......4,525,375 (2004)....4,557,808 (2005)....32,433 Increase....Up 0.7%

Arkansas......2,750,000 (2004)....2,779,154 (2005)....29,154 Increase....Up 1.1%

Florida........17,385,430 (2004)..17,789,864 (2005)..404,434 Increase....Up 2.3%

Georgia........8,918,129 (2004)....9,072,576 (2005)..154,447 Increase....Up 1.7%

Kentucky......4,141,835 (2004)....4,173,405 (2005)....31,570 Increase....Up 0.8%

Louisiana......4,506,685 (2004)....4,523,628 (2005)....16,943 Increase....Up 0.4% Still Pre-Katrina

Mississippi....2,900,768 (2004)....2,921,088 (2005)....20,320 Increase....Up 0.7%

N. Carolina...8,540,468 (2004)....8,683,242 (2005)..142,774 Increase....Up 1.7%

Oklahoma....3,523.546 (2004)....3,547,884 (2005)....24,338 Increase....Up 0.7%

S. Carolina...4,197,892 (2004)....4,255,083 (2005)....57,191 Increase....Up 1.4%

Tennessee....5,893,298 (2004)....5,962,959 (2005)....69,661 Increase....Up 1.2%

Texas.........22,471,549 (2004)..22,859,968 (2005)..388,419 Increase....Up 1.7%

Virginia........7,481,332 (2004)....7,567,465 (2005)....86,133 Increase....Up 1.2%

W. Virginia...1,812,548 (2004)....1,816,856 (2005)......4,308 Increase....Up 0.2%

Florida and Texas led the nation in most residents added during the past year. Georgia and North Carolina were among the fastest growing states as well. I think that it is interesting to note that Tennessee posted the 9th largest numerical population increase in the nation during the past year. Besides the four shown above, the only other states in the nation to post a higher numerical increase than Tennessee were California, Arizona, Washington and Nevada.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Here are the numbers in 2004 & 2005 for the other Southern states as well as Tennessee for comparison:

Kentucky......4,141,835 (2004)....4,173,405 (2005)....31,570 Increase....Up 0.8%

Louisiana......4,506,685 (2004)....4,523,628 (2005)....16,943 Increase....Up 0.4% Still Pre-Katrina

S. Carolina...4,197,892 (2004)....4,255,083 (2005)....57,191 Increase....Up 1.4%

Tennessee....5,893,298 (2004)....5,962,959 (2005)....69,661 Increase....Up 1.2%

Removing some of the other states for comparison, it's probably safe to say that LA's population may have dropped by 200-300k, probably one of the most dramatic drops in population in a brief period of time in U.S. history. It's probably on par or equal to KY or SC's 4.2 million (and likely to lose that 7th Congressional district, too -- both SC and KY have 6 seats each) at the moment.

[Hankster]

Removing some of the other states for comparison, it's probably safe to say that LA's population may have dropped by 200-300k, probably one of the most dramatic drops in population in a brief period of time in U.S. history. It's probably on par or equal to KY or SC's 4.2 million (and likely to lose that 7th Congressional district, too -- both SC and KY have 6 seats each) at the moment.

I agree. It will be most interesting to see 2006 population estimates for Louisiana, New Orleans, and Baton Rouge when they're released. There should be a large drop in Louisiana and New Orleans populations, but a large increase in Baton Rouge.

[ATLBrain]

These new estimates indicate that population increases thruoghout Tennessee are beginning to accelerate to higher growth rates.

Yes, I believe it. You guys are getting discovered now. I hope you just do a better job of managing the rapid growth than your predecessors.

Keep up the good work you guys. It's a beautiful state indeed.

[ATLBrain]

Just one more thing about this. The population of TN always seems to be so much greater than the mid census estimates by the time the actual decenniel census figures.

Plus, these estimates here don't even include the growth for Davidson (which still show 0 growth). Most people don't doubt that the current population stands around 610K.

So, it's a safe bet that the state has passed the 6 million mark already.

[ATLBrain]

Here are the numbers in 2004 & 2005 for the other Southern states as well as Tennessee for comparison:

Florida........17,385,430 (2004)..17,789,864 (2005)..404,434 Increase....Up 2.3%

Georgia........8,918,129 (2004)....9,072,576 (2005)..154,447 Increase....Up 1.7%

Of course, I can see how much my state has grown in the last 20 years.

But at the rate above, FL will pass NY by the next census (woo-hoo)... and GA will probably pass up NJ.

[Hankster]

Just one more thing about this. The population of TN always seems to be so much greater than the mid census estimates by the time the actual decenniel census figures.

Plus, these estimates here don't even include the growth for Davidson (which still show 0 growth). Most people don't doubt that the current population stands around 610K.

So, it's a safe bet that the state has passed the 6 million mark already.

That's exactly what I'm thinking. I don't know why the Census bureau always seems to underestimate Davidson County, but they usually do. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that they're at least 30,000 low on Davidson already, so I agree that Tennessee has already exceeded 6 million. As for Georgia and Florida, I would be hoping in a slowdown in growth if I lived there. As far as I am concerned, Atlanta is already as big as it ever needs to get (as long as it continues to grow outward as opposed to growing denser). At the rate Florida is growing, it will have 40 Million people by 2040. Yes, that's 40 Million! I'd get the hell out of dodge before I'd catch myself living in a zoo like that.

[Brian]

Of course, I can see how much my state has grown in the last 20 years.

But at the rate above, FL will pass NY by the next census (woo-hoo)... and GA will probably pass up NJ.

Georgia has passed New Jersey about two years ago. The current population for NJ is 8,717,925.

[ATLBrain]

Georgia has passed New Jersey about two years ago. The current population for NJ is 8,717,925.

You're right. I was thinking of the 2010 census and reapportionment. No doubt, GA will continue to get additional representation at the expense of the Northern states.

[ricky_the_great]

That's exactly what I'm thinking. I don't know why the Census bureau always seems to underestimate Davidson County, but they usually do. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that they're at least 30,000 low on Davidson already, so I agree that Tennessee has already exceeded 6 million. As for Georgia and Florida, I would be hoping in a slowdown in growth if I lived there. As far as I am concerned, Atlanta is already as big as it ever needs to get (as long as it continues to grow outward as opposed to growing denser). At the rate Florida is growing, it will have 40 Million people by 2040. Yes, that's 40 Million! I'd get the hell out of dodge before I'd catch myself living in a zoo like that.

i dont htink the state will maintain that growth rate for 40 more years... i can see it getting to 20 million or so and then slowing down.

[HABANERO7]

I am totaly suprised that the state is still growing at the clip it is growing at considering the havoc that was witnessed there during the summers of 2004 and 2005.

I think tennessee will suprise many across the state with 2010 rolls around. Theres just a couple of places in the whole state thats witnessing shrinking numbers.

[Hankster]

i dont htink the state will maintain that growth rate for 40 more years... i can see it getting to 20 million or so and then slowing down.

Surely Florida's population growth will slow down considerably in the future, but so far there are absolutely no signs of that happening, desite the fact that is has recently become hurricane central. What if it doesn't slow down? The possibility of that is absolutely mind-boggling. Humanity is perfectly capable of living in fantastically crowded conditions. Look at Hong Kong (Population 6,855,125 - Area 402 Sq Mi most of which are so mountainous as to be uninhabitable) or Bangledesh (Population 144,319,628 - Area 55,599 Sq Mi or roughly the size of Florida). It IS possible.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Surely Florida's population growth will slow down considerably in the future, but so far there are absolutely no signs of that happening, desite the fact that is has recently become hurricane central. What if it doesn't slow down? The possibility of that is absolutely mind-boggling. Humanity is perfectly capable of living in fantastically crowded conditions. Look at Hong Kong (Population 6,855,125 - Area 402 Sq Mi most of which are so mountainous as to be uninhabitable) or Bangledesh (Population 144,319,628 - Area 55,599 Sq Mi or roughly the size of Florida). It IS possible.

Lord Almighty, I hope I don't live long enough to see any of our states end up like some third-world hellhole like Bangladesh.

[smeagolsfree]

It's interesting how a lot of the Counties or Cities are doing a special census. I know there was one done in Spring Hill. I just found out Ashland City is doing one now and Hickman county is doing one. I am sure there are others out there I don't know about.

[ATLBrain]

It's interesting how a lot of the Counties or Cities are doing a special census. I know there was one done in Spring Hill. I just found out Ashland City is doing one now and Hickman county is doing one. I am sure there are others out there I don't know about.

There's money to be made with a greater population. Federal handouts (oops, I mean grants) are often based on population. They can add up to about $100 per person. Most of the time, smaller to middle sized cities will do these especially if there's good reason to believe they've grown a lot in the interim. In contrast, larger cities usually can't justify the cost of conducting a special census for the expected return.

The city leaders of Metro Nashville apparently don't even care about having up-to-date estimates.

[HABANERO7]

Cleveland did a special census count back in 1997 to try and get that $100 per person out of the system for the last couple of years of the decade. Well when they did the count they only come up with about 2,800 folks. The count ended up costing more than it was worth to the City. The 2000 census placed the city at 37,192 which means those the city planned to pick up magically appeared.

Cleveland and Bradley county is again experiencing strong growth, but I don

[Unifour]

Actually, Tennessee has been one of the fastest growing states for some time. For the most part, the southern states are the only ones experiencing significant growth. The West is growing at a faster speed, however. Numerically, the south is the fastest growing. I think the majority of the fastest growing counties are in the south. Tennessee is actually accelerating in growth because of the same reason the rest of the nation is, Hispanic immigration. The higher immigrants and thier higher birth rate is pushing up the numbers. It won't be long that the majority of the biggest states will be in the southern part of the nation. Both NC and GA are projected to hit 12,000,000 before too much longer. That's as big as Pennsylvania and Illinois today.

[HABANERO7]

So when Tennessee Rolls into the official count April 1, 2010 where will the State stand as a whole?

Would a population of 6,400,000 be a stretch?

Counties listed below should be at 100,000 if not already by 2010

County Rank * 2000 population * 2010 population estimate

1. Shelby * 897,472 (2000) * ~980,000 (2010)

2. Davidson * 569,891 (2000) * ~621,000 (2010)

3. Knox * 382,032 (2000) * ~428,000 (2010)

4. Hamilton * 307,896 (2000) * ~324,000 (2010)

5. Rutherford * 182,023 (2000) * ~231,000 (2010)

6. Sullivan * 153,048 (2000) * ~159,000 (2010)

7. Montgomery * 134,768 (2000) * ~166,000 (2010)

8. Sumner * 130,449 (2000) * ~162,000 (2010)

9. Williamson * 126,638 (2000) * ~174,000 (2010)

10. Washington * 107,198 (2000) * ~120,000 (2010)

11. Blount * 105,823 (2010) * ~121,000 (2010)

12. Wilson * 88,809 (2000) * ~110,000 (2010)

13. Madison * 91,837 (2000) * ~105,000 (2010)

14. Bradley * 87,965 (2000) * ~104,000 (2010)

Change in County rank if growth predictions turns out to be correct: (+-1) shows movement in the list

1. Shelby

2. Davidson

3. Knox

4. Hamilton

5. Rutherford

6. Williamson (+3)

7. Montgomery

8. Sumner

9. Sullivan (-3)

10. Blount (+1)

11. Washington (-1)

12. Wilson

13. Madison

14. Bradley

[Rural King]

^Interesting question on how big TN may be by the time the 2010 Census comes around. Thanks for the estimated possible county population breakdown as well.

I wonder when we might pick up a Congressional seat. Of course several other states are growing quite a bit faster than us (FL, GA, NC) but I wonder how much bigger we will have to get to pick one up, which would put us back at 10, which has been awhile since we had that many.

[rbhriuthbu1234]

I agree. It will be most interesting to see 2006 population estimates for Louisiana, New Orleans, and Baton Rouge when they're released. There should be a large drop in Louisiana and New Orleans populations, but a large increase in Baton Rouge.

Yea no telling how much, It would be funny if it grew a million people, It could happend because of New Orleans.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I wonder when we might pick up a Congressional seat. Of course several other states are growing quite a bit faster than us (FL, GA, NC) but I wonder how much bigger we will have to get to pick one up, which would put us back at 10, which has been awhile since we had that many.

For 100 years, from 1853-1953, we had 10 seats, and dropped as low as 8 from 1973-83, before rapid growth during that period regained us our 9th. We're still a bit too far behind in growth to regain a 10th. For example, Massachusetts has 10 seats, and had 6.3 million people in 2000, but has gained only a paltry 49,000 people in 5 years (and probably, as a result, will drop to 9 seats, the fewest number of seats it will have held since the 8 it had from 1789-93). We were still 600,000 down from MA at 5.7 million in 2000, and are still 400,000 behind at just under 6 million now. Indiana, which lost its 10th seat in 2003, would be more likely to regain their 10th (at the moment), since they are also 300,000 ahead of us at 6.3 million (and will probably overtake MA within the next year or so). More likely than either IN or TN in gaining a 10th seat is the fast-growing Washington state, which now ties Indiana with 6.3 million, up from 5.9 million in 2000. It grew by a full million people from 1990 to 2000, and that STILL wasn't enough for it to gain a Congressional seat (9 seats since 1993).

If I took a guestimate at what would be required to get us a 10th seat, we'd probably have to add perhaps 600,000 more people from where we were last year (and then we'd have to retain that level of growth as a percentage of all the rest of the states that have above the Constitutionally-required 1 member in order to keep that 10th member). Unless we really catch on fire, I think we'll probably stay at 9 seats for at least the forseeable future.

I'm probably one of the few people who advocates raising the number of Congressional members to an even 500 (or 501, since that would avoid a potential problem with a tie vote), which would assure that virtually every state would gain an additional seat.