NWA will become the next megapolis of the South

[mcheiss]

Can anyone provide info on the Fayetteville South Tech Park?

I've never heard of this and it interests me.

[Aporkalypse]

There are some really smart observations on this thread and I thought it was an interesting read. I'd like to comment on a couple of them.

The only reason growth in Northwest Arkansas is even noticable is because this area has never had anything more than a middleweight university and a couple Fortune 500 companies. So yeah, it's easier for people in bigger cities that already have everything to notice these little towns in NWA growing so fast.

One thing to keep in mind is that many of the growth projections for NWA are based on rates of growth remaining constant as opposed to absolute numbers. In other words, when a city goes from 25k to 50k that means 25k people were willing to move there for a growth rate of 100% in a finite time period. To maintain that another 50k would have to be willing to move to the same place and jobs would have to exist for them. The problem is this logarithmic growth rarely happens. There are a set number of people willing to pull up stakes and move to a relatively remote area in Arkansas because of cost of living, quality of life, etc. The other issue is job availability but we'll get to that. Some would make the case that as it grows NWA will be more appealing but I think it's a wash as the reasons many people move to NWA (small town feel, low cost of living, paucity of crime, etc) will be diluted.

Everybody brought up infrastructure. It's already a big problem in NWA and it will only get worse. There's a lot of talk about widening I-540 to 6 lanes, which need to be done, and light rail, which doesn't. However, the big problem in NWA is going to be the need for widening existing routes and creating new arterials. The biggest priority for NWA should be to create a parallel trans-metro highway to ease traffic on 540 and US 71. US 71 needs a complete redo.

Unless NWA gets another Fortune 500 company or a massive Tech boom comes, I can't see us getting that big. If we were to become the size of the Atlanta area, we'd have to grow by literally 5 Million people considering how big the Atlanta MSA area is. I can see us continuing a steady small growth rate, and reaching the size of Little Rock area, but definately not to the ranks of the megalopolisis of Atlanta, Dallas, or Miami.

I think this is the biggest issue. Places like Atlanta and DFW have many Fortune 500 companies and a host of smaller but sizable ones. Wal-Mart will only support growth to a point. It will continue to grow but not in a way to support a million people in NWA by itself. At some point, NWA needs to diversify its economy and become less dependent on Wal-Mart as at some point, whether it's in 2 yrs or 25, Wal-Mart will struggle some. The first thing that will happen if that happens is the new leadership will think about moving at least some operations out of state. The Catch 22 is the very low unemployment in NWA, especially amongst executives, makes it a tough place for corporate relocation. Plus, a lot of execs really don't want to move outside of a handful of the nation's most popular places for corporate relocation.

[Mith242]

There are some really smart observations on this thread and I thought it was an interesting read. I'd like to comment on a couple of them.

One thing to keep in mind is that many of the growth projections for NWA are based on rates of growth remaining constant as opposed to absolute numbers. In other words, when a city goes from 25k to 50k that means 25k people were willing to move there for a growth rate of 100% in a finite time period. To maintain that another 50k would have to be willing to move to the same place and jobs would have to exist for them. The problem is this logarithmic growth rarely happens. There are a set number of people willing to pull up stakes and move to a relatively remote area in Arkansas because of cost of living, quality of life, etc. The other issue is job availability but we'll get to that. Some would make the case that as it grows NWA will be more appealing but I think it's a wash as the reasons many people move to NWA (small town feel, low cost of living, paucity of crime, etc) will be diluted.

Everybody brought up infrastructure. It's already a big problem in NWA and it will only get worse. There's a lot of talk about widening I-540 to 6 lanes, which need to be done, and light rail, which doesn't. However, the big problem in NWA is going to be the need for widening existing routes and creating new arterials. The biggest priority for NWA should be to create a parallel trans-metro highway to ease traffic on 540 and US 71. US 71 needs a complete redo.

I think this is the biggest issue. Places like Atlanta and DFW have many Fortune 500 companies and a host of smaller but sizable ones. Wal-Mart will only support growth to a point. It will continue to grow but not in a way to support a million people in NWA by itself. At some point, NWA needs to diversify its economy and become less dependent on Wal-Mart as at some point, whether it's in 2 yrs or 25, Wal-Mart will struggle some. The first thing that will happen if that happens is the new leadership will think about moving at least some operations out of state. The Catch 22 is the very low unemployment in NWA, especially amongst executives, makes it a tough place for corporate relocation. Plus, a lot of execs really don't want to move outside of a handful of the nation's most popular places for corporate relocation.

Some good observations. I think NWA could be reaching a point where it's becoming more of larger metro and has more to offer and such. But as Aporkalypse stated this doesn't appeal to everyone and we could become less appealing to those wanting some conveniences but didn't want to live in something bigger than a small metro. It would seem that we could hit a barrier there. To continue growth and to make the area more attractive to some people to move into the area we risk losing people who didn't come here to live in a metro that big. I guess you end up possibly running into the problem of having an urban center then the suburbia for those wanting to distance themselves from the more urban environment. From my personal standpoint I think we need to keep growing and bring in a more diverse populace into the metro. Even if that means losing some people. I don't necessaily want NWA to be just like any other larger metro but I certainly would like it to be more cosmopolitan and such. I think a larger more diverse metro could help bring in the people to increase the workforce and help take care of some of this ridiculously low unemployment. I think the first way to start this is to find ways to create jobs to help keep some of our college graduates. Too many of our graduates have to go elsewhere to find jobs even if they were interested in staying in the area.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Some good observations. I think NWA could be reaching a point where it's becoming more of larger metro and has more to offer and such. But as Aporkalypse stated this doesn't appeal to everyone and we could become less appealing to those wanting some conveniences but didn't want to live in something bigger than a small metro. It would seem that we could hit a barrier there. To continue growth and to make the area more attractive to some people to move into the area we risk losing people who didn't come here to live in a metro that big. I guess you end up possibly running into the problem of having an urban center then the suburbia for those wanting to distance themselves from the more urban environment. From my personal standpoint I think we need to keep growing and bring in a more diverse populace into the metro. Even if that means losing some people. I don't necessaily want NWA to be just like any other larger metro but I certainly would like it to be more cosmopolitan and such. I think a larger more diverse metro could help bring in the people to increase the workforce and help take care of some of this ridiculously low unemployment. I think the first way to start this is to find ways to create jobs to help keep some of our college graduates. Too many of our graduates have to go elsewhere to find jobs even if they were interested in staying in the area.

I hope NWA does not fall victim to the short-sighted mentality that drove growth in Springdale for the past 15 or so years, which was to grow at all costs. Its got the worst planning of any of the cities up there, and will rapidly decline IMHO. Look at Garland, Texas and you will see the future of Springdale.

NWA overall is in the enviable position of having strong growth right now. The city and county leaders need to think about the future, and leverage that demand for growth into smarter planning and stricter requirements for all of the retailers and residential developers who want a piece of the pie. In doing so, they will create an even more desireable metropolitan area, improve the quality of life all around, which will enhance the chances of landing companies who pay better than 8 bucks an hour.

The focus needs to be on sustainable, quality development that improves the metropolitan area and each city, not on trying to scoreboard each other on the population signs, or other metros for that matter.

Quality over quantity. Egos be damned.

[Mith242]

I hope NWA does not fall victim to the short-sighted mentality that drove growth in Springdale for the past 15 or so years, which was to grow at all costs. Its got the worst planning of any of the cities up there, and will rapidly decline IMHO. Look at Garland, Texas and you will see the future of Springdale.

NWA overall is in the enviable position of having strong growth right now. The city and county leaders need to think about the future, and leverage that demand for growth into smarter planning and stricter requirements for all of the retailers and residential developers who want a piece of the pie. In doing so, they will create an even more desireable metropolitan area, improve the quality of life all around, which will enhance the chances of landing companies who pay better than 8 bucks an hour.

The focus needs to be on sustainable, quality development that improves the metropolitan area and each city, not on trying to scoreboard each other on the population signs, or other metros for that matter.

Quality over quantity. Egos be damned.

I think many areas of the metro are beginning to feel this way. I think at first Benton County also was wanting growth and development although they didn't go the Springdale route. But I think you're seeing a sign in Benton County for more quality and not quantity. But I think it was only natural after being in the shadow of Fayetteville for so much restaurants and retail and such that they get what they can at first then realize they can be more selective. I even hear signs of things changing in Springdale believe it or not. It's a good sign but it will still take a lot to help change everything that's been done.

[itk]

Aporkalypse brings a good point about growth projections-- it depends if you assume the same growth "rate" or just a linear trend. Makes a big difference when making future projections.

The NWARPC and AHTD definitely recognize the need to make good parallel arterials to I-540 (please trust me on this). In fact, when the NARTS 2030 Long Range Plan is done and released to the media/public, you'll see a huge emphasis on creating an actual arterial network throughout NWA (including ones parallel to I-540). A major contrast to the last long range plan (which was released 5 years ago), which did not consider network connectivity at all. However, since many of the arterials we're talking about are under local jurisdictions (i.e., not a state or US hwy), and since federal funds are so tight, well, same song and dance.

In about 5 years (2011-2012 I think), NWA will get a huge boost of federal funding at the disposal of the NWA MPO (the NWARPC). These are special funds reserved for metro areas greater than 200,000 population according to the latest census. The only problem is, is that according to the 2000 Census, NWA was just slightly less than 200,000, making them ineligable for this pot of funds until the 2010 Census is done. Not much consolation now I know, but something to look forward to in the future.

Can anyone provide info on the Fayetteville South Tech Park?

I've never heard of this and it interests me.

The Center for Business and Economic Research at the UA did a report about that tech park a few years ago:

http://cber.uark.edu/data/artp.pdf

Here's the main webpage: http://www.uark.edu/ua/artp/

The stuff in blue is what's out there right now. The ENRC/Hidec/Gensis complex building is a huge maze inside. Part of the main complex, which was recently remodeled, is for UA research strictly, and the rest is for businesses and maybe cooperative stuff. I used to have lots of lab classes there as a UA student. The N-S rd on the east is 71B, and the E-W on the south is Cato Springs Rd.

[strmchsr77]

Hey Itk,

Thanks for getting back to Mcheiss...on the Tech Park in Fayetteville.

I had mentioned it a day or two ago.

Anyway, where did you get your numbers for NWA Metro population for 2000. I thought it was closer to 375,000+ then. Here is a link that ranks metros in population order:

http://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/index.php?showtopic=8400

The Fayetteville Metro is #126 on the list @ over 426,000.

[masons_dad1]

^

It would be nice if the population estimates would make more sense. My source at Wikipedia.com places Northwest Arkansas population at 438,000. I believe the population estimates that NWARPC and AHTD use are based on Urban Population and not Total Population.

itk seems to be the most knowledgable as far as transportation issues so maybe he would be willing to enlighten us.

[Mith242]

Oops sorry strmchsr77 I guess I missed your post with your question. Anyway I going to take a stab at the numbers although itk probably can answer it better than I can. I think the larger numbers are referring to the 4 county metro area. While the lower numbers are referring to basically the more urban center of the metro; Fayetteville, Springdale, Rogers and Bentonville. I ironic thing is when we are able to get more money because of our size we also end up losing money for our bus service I believe. Anyway thanks for keeping us up to date itk.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

^

It would be nice if the population estimates would make more sense. My source at Wikipedia.com places Northwest Arkansas population at 438,000. I believe the population estimates that NWARPC and AHTD use are based on Urban Population and not Total Population.

itk seems to be the most knowledgable as far as transportation issues so maybe he would be willing to enlighten us.

There are some confusing differences in the way metros are ranked or listed for population statistics.

Some models used incoroporated areas as parts of the metro, and only count population within incorporated areas. Others use county boundaries.

AND FYI, Wikipedia isn't the most reliable source around.

I can look up tons of demographic information from very scientific sources drawing from many different data mines that give projections out five years, but as Apork pointed out, these are trend based and the projections can vary wildly from year to year. If anyone is interested I can pull some of that stuff out later and post it. Its part of my job.

[Mith242]

There are some confusing differences in the way metros are ranked or listed for population statistics.

Some models used incoroporated areas as parts of the metro, and only count population within incorporated areas. Others use county boundaries.

AND FYI, Wikipedia isn't the most reliable source around.

I can look up tons of demographic information from very scientific sources drawing from many different data mines that give projections out five years, but as Apork pointed out, these are trend based and the projections can vary wildly from year to year. If anyone is interested I can pull some of that stuff out later and post it. Its part of my job.

That would be interesting to see if it's not any trouble.

[mcheiss]

Hey Itk,

Thanks for getting back to Mcheiss...on the Tech Park in Fayetteville.

I had mentioned it a day or two ago.

Anyway, where did you get your numbers for NWA Metro population for 2000. I thought it was closer to 375,000+ then. Here is a link that ranks metros in population order:

http://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/index.php?showtopic=8400

The Fayetteville Metro is #126 on the list @ over 426,000.

Thanks for the info. I was expecting something much smaller, it's great to see Fayetteville diversifiying it's economy.

I've always heard the NWA metro is around 385,000.

[itk]

Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear on that earlier. That 200,000 mark is based on the "urbanized" area of the metro area, which is different than the MSA or whatever other categories. I think that "urbanized" designation is stictly an FHWA category though. Which is different from their "urban" area category, and I think there are other categories which I'm still trying to learn and remember. I think the federal government just makes all these complex categories for funding just to give everyone headaches. I htink it works. The "urban" and "urbanized" areas are smaller than the MSA.

Maybe DickSonstreetDFW or someone eles knows, but we were having a discussion in our office today where someone was saying that the way the US Census Bureau makes population estimates of counties is kind of weird, so that because the city populations in NWA has been growing so fast that according to the Bureau, the city population totals may end up not matching the county totals (i.e., maybe higher). I think he might have been facetious though, they would have to 'adjust' their estimates if that was the case I would imagine... not knowing anything about that though.

strmchsr77-- I guess I didn't see that, sorry to be repetitive-- man, sometimes there are so many posts in one day (which is awsome) that it's hard to find time to go back and read them all.

[mcheiss]

Let's see.

Springdale is around 65,000, Fayetteville is 70,000, Rogers 48,000 and Bentonville 29,000. That adds to around 200,000 urbanized people in the NWA MSA.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear on that earlier. That 200,000 mark is based on the "urbanized" area of the metro area, which is different than the MSA or whatever other categories. I think that "urbanized" designation is stictly an FHWA category though. Which is different from their "urban" area category, and I think there are other categories which I'm still trying to learn and remember. I think the federal government just makes all these complex categories for funding just to give everyone headaches. I htink it works. The "urban" and "urbanized" areas are smaller than the MSA.

Maybe DickSonstreetDFW or someone eles knows, but we were having a discussion in our office today where someone was saying that the way the US Census Bureau makes population estimates of counties is kind of weird, so that because the city populations in NWA has been growing so fast that according to the Bureau, the city population totals may end up not matching the county totals (i.e., maybe higher). I think he might have been facetious though, they would have to 'adjust' their estimates if that was the case I would imagine... not knowing anything about that though.

strmchsr77-- I guess I didn't see that, sorry to be repetitive-- man, sometimes there are so many posts in one day (which is awsome) that it's hard to find time to go back and read them all.

Working on the national retailer side of real estate development, we have to use the most up to date information we can get to determine where to place our stores. The data sources that we use are compilations of many different resources such as actual census counts, housing occupancy rates, housing units, utility usage, social security and welfare payments, etc, etc. They are sold as subscription services and update bi-annually.

Still, the most accurate estimates or projections are flawed. Anything that is done between actual headcounts at census time are just guesses. Actual year estimates tend to be more accurate, but when you start projecting out figures five or ten years into the future, all you can rely is the current situation and the current trend in expansion or retraction.

An example: A city may one year be projected to gain 20,000 residents within five years based on 2004 trends. When 2005 trends are factored into projections the next year, that gain shrinks to 5,000, or becomes negligible. The truth is, growth could, theoretically grind to a halt in one month, or rapidly increase, depending on different unknown variables.

I will pull some recent figures and put them up, projections and all, but remember its all just educated guessing until someone starts going door to door and counting folks.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Working on the national retailer side of real estate development, we have to use the most up to date information we can get to determine where to place our stores. The data sources that we use are compilations of many different resources such as actual census counts, housing occupancy rates, housing units, utility usage, social security and welfare payments, etc, etc. They are sold as subscription services and update bi-annually.

Still, the most accurate estimates or projections are flawed. Anything that is done between actual headcounts at census time are just guesses. Actual year estimates tend to be more accurate, but when you start projecting out figures five or ten years into the future, all you can rely is the current situation and the current trend in expansion or retraction.

An example: A city may one year be projected to gain 20,000 residents within five years based on 2004 trends. When 2005 trends are factored into projections the next year, that gain shrinks to 5,000, or becomes negligible. The truth is, growth could, theoretically grind to a halt in one month, or rapidly increase, depending on different unknown variables.

I will pull some recent figures and put them up, projections and all, but remember its all just educated guessing until someone starts going door to door and counting folks.

Well I pulled the best numbers I could get and I know they are way off.

Springdale only estimates in 2005 at 51,178 using the subscription (expensive I might add) that we use.

The numbers shown as projections for 2010 are much closer to what has recently been found for 2005 in the special census.

Given how far off just the Springdale number is, I'd wager that NWA is at or above 400k in the MSA right now and will be between 450k and 500k by 2010. Our software is sophisticated and not cheap, but there's a ghost in the machine there.

It might have to do with the accuracy of housing unit counts or occupancy reporting, or any number of other factors. This is from one of the big two data warehouses most retailers buy from. Little wonder the area is under-retailed.

[Mith242]

Well I pulled the best numbers I could get and I know they are way off.

Springdale only estimates in 2005 at 51,178 using the subscription (expensive I might add) that we use.

The numbers shown as projections for 2010 are much closer to what has recently been found for 2005 in the special census.

Given how far off just the Springdale number is, I'd wager that NWA is at or above 400k in the MSA right now and will be between 450k and 500k by 2010. Our software is sophisticated and not cheap, but there's a ghost in the machine there.

It might have to do with the accuracy of housing unit counts or occupancy reporting, or any number of other factors. This is from one of the big two data warehouses most retailers buy from. Little wonder the area is under-retailed.

Thanks for the info. Although I'm not sure if Springdale is more of an anomaly or what. I don't think anyone would have predicted them to jump that high up in population that quickly. I'm not sure if anywhere else in the metro has 'overperformed' to those type of figures. But I do think it's a good guess the metro is above 350,000 mark and perhaps closer to the 400,000 mark.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Thanks for the info. Although I'm not sure if Springdale is more of an anomaly or what. I don't think anyone would have predicted them to jump that high up in population that quickly. I'm not sure if anywhere else in the metro has 'overperformed' to those type of figures. But I do think it's a good guess the metro is above 350,000 mark and perhaps closer to the 400,000 mark.

Every figure I pulled for the big four cities seemed low to me based on what I've seen and read concerning the special census.

These numbers are generally pretty spot-on so there is a gap in the information somewhere. Could be that smaller metros housing info is not as scrutinized or reported as efficiently as larger metros.

[Mith242]

Every figure I pulled for the big four cities seemed low to me based on what I've seen and read concerning the special census.

These numbers are generally pretty spot-on so there is a gap in the information somewhere. Could be that smaller metros housing info is not as scrutinized or reported as efficiently as larger metros.

None the less it's still interesting to hear.

[masons_dad1]

Like I've said before it makes me wonder why our taxes pay the government to take a census when it's just a bunch of guessing anyway. It's not a Federal crime to doctor the census flyer they send out anyway. Who wants to put in what their household income really is anyway. The only real way for there to be an accurate census is to implant a bio-chip in everyone that automatically updates the census. It might seem a bit Orwellian but if it works for Wal-Mart Distribution Centers it could work in every aspect of daily life.

[Mith242]

Like I've said before it makes me wonder why our taxes pay the government to take a census when it's just a bunch of guessing anyway. It's not a Federal crime to doctor the census flyer they send out anyway. Who wants to put in what their household income really is anyway. The only real way for there to be an accurate census is to implant a bio-chip in everyone that automatically updates the census. It might seem a bit Orwellian but if it works for Wal-Mart Distribution Centers it could work in every aspect of daily life.

That seems a bit over the top just to get better census data.