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Tre 4

The Triad In 2020

Where Do You See The Triad In 2020?  

83 members have voted

  1. 1. The Largest Triad City ?

    • Greensboro
      51
    • Winston-Salem
      30
    • High-Point
      0
    • Burlington
      1
    • Other Cities
      1
  2. 2. The Largest Triad County?

    • Guilford
      63
    • Forsyth
      18
    • Davidson
      1
    • Alamance
      1
    • Rockingham
      0
    • Yadkin
      0
    • Davie
      0
    • Stokes
      0
    • Surry
      0
    • Randolph
      0
  3. 3. Most Developed City

    • Greensboro
      33
    • Winston-Salem
      46
    • High-Point
      1
    • Burlington
      2
    • Other Cities
      1
  4. 4. Most Developed County

    • Guilford
      43
    • Forsyth
      33
    • Davidson
      2
    • Alamance
      4
    • Rockingham
      0
    • Yadkin
      0
    • Davie
      1
    • Stokes
      0
    • Surry
      0
    • Randolph
      0
    • Other Counties
      0


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I think we are going to see major growth in all the Triad cities but i think with the upcoming interstates/urban loop, the airport and FedEx, Greensboro will see the most growth/development in the next 20 years. Those factors will give Greensboro the edge over any o fthe other cities.

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I picked Greensboro/Guilford County on all except the last one, i picked Alamance County. Guilford does not apply to me on the last question because most of the county has been developed already (dont forget HP too). Alamance will continue to grow (eventually miles off the I-85 corridor) and will likely see spillover sprawl from Durham and Chapel Hill.

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actually most of Guilford isnt developed. There is plenty of land on the eastern half of the county. Greensboro and Guilford County have had problems luring companies like Dell because they didnt have land prepared fo companies like Dell. Its crazy, here we have a city thats getting a FedEx hub and are not even prepared for the growth. High Point is running out of land becasue its sandwhich between two county lines and Greensboro. but Alamance County may see a surge in development and job growth in the up coming years.

On another note, Guilford County seems to get more national and international exposure with the home furnishings market in High Point and events such as the ACC tournament and PGA tournament in Greensboro. That kind of exposure help attract jobs to the area.

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I think Guilford will be the largest, most developed county. I think its a toss up between GSO and W-S on who will be the largest city. Fedex will do to H-P/Greensboro what Dell is doing to Winston-Salem/Kernesville. for the past 2 years W-S has grown at slightly faster rate than GSO....the same for Forsyth county. That trend could end soon or continue. All i know is, right now, W-S has the best job market in the Triad and probably will stay that way (according to the latest 50 hottest list) for a little while until FedEx opens.

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I would like to see what you think the triad will be like in 2020.

You should probably define what you mean by "most developed." To some people, it can mean the most sprawl (highways, subdivisions, WalMarts, etc), to others it might mean the densest (ie. the least amount of vacant land, most urban, etc).

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I wonder what Greensboro's and Winston-Salem's skyline will look like by 2020?

Improved, no doubt. But I would hope to see an even greater improvement in the streetscape. Downtown surface lots gone by '20! :thumbsup:

Not gonna happen... without a miracle :whistling:

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I agree I want to see a denser skyline with less surface parking lots. the streetscape on Elm Street in downtown Greensboro is nice but I'd like to see nice streetscape on all the downtown streets. Some streets look kinda crappy.

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I remember seeing an article in the GBO News & Record about what the PTI Airport area would look like in the year 2022. The diagram showed a map and a picture of what Interstate 40 would look like. It was very futuristic with commuter rails, Painter Blvd, huge laned Interstate, commuter tubes, etc. It looked like a scene from the Jetsons.

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I remember seeing an article in the GBO News & Record about what the PTI Airport area would look like in the year 2022. The diagram showed a map and a picture of what Interstate 40 would look like. It was very futuristic with commuter rails, Painter Blvd, huge laned Interstate, commuter tubes, etc. It looked like a scene from the Jetsons.

Is there any chance we could find it (the article)? That would be very awesome to see!

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In 2020 I see Winston-Salem Pop about 230,000 and Forsyth Country about 500,500.Also I see Greensboro Pop about 300,000 and High-Point 110,000 With Guilford County Having A pop of 650,000.

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I remember seeing an article in the GBO News & Record about what the PTI Airport area would look like in the year 2022. The diagram showed a map and a picture of what Interstate 40 would look like. It was very futuristic with commuter rails, Painter Blvd, huge laned Interstate, commuter tubes, etc. It looked like a scene from the Jetsons.

I truely believe thats the kind of scene we will see in the Triad 40 or 50 years from now. Ill be close 80 years old by then.

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Within 5 years, High Point will lose the title of "America's Biggest Furniture Market" to Las Vegas because High Point has been sitting on its hands and ignoring this threat for years.

From that moment on, High Point will fall into decline for decades to come as local talent agglomerates in Winston and Greensboro, the two cities with cultural, educational, and economic capital that High Point lacks.

In 2020, Winston-Salem will be the first city of the Triad because it will have a greater concentration of jobs and workers in its downtown, and because its economy will be tied to research. Greensboro, hanging its hat on logistics and shipping made currently easy by interstate access and the FedEx hub, will fall on harder times when the lifeblood of its economic development strategy, cheap oil- goes away.

Overinvestment in highways in Greensboro will come back to haunt the city, while Winston's more focused city planning will bear fruit, particularly if the streetcar system is developed and expanded.

If PTI has not closed, it will be a marginal airport with connections to Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta, and a few other nearby bigger airports in the mid-Atlantic to southeast.

In 2020, downtown neighborhoods in both Greensboro and Winston will be thriving, and urban villages will be springing up along the inter-city rail between both cities and along Winston streetcar lines. History will show that delaying the beltway was the best thing that happened to Winston, while Greensboro homeowners along the loop in extremely auto-dependent neighborhoods will watch their property values plummet.

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Within 5 years, High Point will lose the title of "America's Biggest Furniture Market" to Las Vegas because High Point has been sitting on its hands and ignoring this threat for years.

From that moment on, High Point will fall into decline for decades to come as local talent agglomerates in Winston and Greensboro, the two cities with cultural, educational, and economic capital that High Point lacks.

In 2020, Winston-Salem will be the first city of the Triad because it will have a greater concentration of jobs and workers in its downtown, and because its economy will be tied to research. Greensboro, hanging its hat on logistics and shipping made currently easy by interstate access and the FedEx hub, will fall on harder times when the lifeblood of its economic development strategy, cheap oil- goes away.

Overinvestment in highways in Greensboro will come back to haunt the city, while Winston's more focused city planning will bear fruit, particularly if the streetcar system is developed and expanded.

If PTI has not closed, it will be a marginal airport with connections to Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta, and a few other nearby bigger airports in the mid-Atlantic to southeast.

In 2020, downtown neighborhoods in both Greensboro and Winston will be thriving, and urban villages will be springing up along the inter-city rail between both cities and along Winston streetcar lines. History will show that delaying the beltway was the best thing that happened to Winston, while Greensboro homeowners along the loop in extremely auto-dependent neighborhoods will watch their property values plummet.

Winston-Salem already has more concentrated jobs in its downtown than Greensboro. But population is usully the benchmarck for being "first city". having a research economy doesnt mean its the first city. One good example is the Triangle. Durham's economy is more tied to research than Raleigh but Raleigh is the "1st city". Both Greensboro and Winston-Salem will see alot of jobs. We'll likely see more RF Micro Devices type companies in Greensboro along with more distribution centers.

I wont say its impossible Winston will pass Greensboro in population but its not likely any time soon because both cities continue to annex. Just about every month Greensboro annexes but its usually 25 acres here or 100 acres there. I think Winston-Salem and Durham will keep shifting populational ranks because the two cities are alot closer in population than any of the 5 big cities.

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In 2020, downtown neighborhoods in both Greensboro and Winston will be thriving, and urban villages will be springing up along the inter-city rail between both cities and along Winston streetcar lines. History will show that delaying the beltway was the best thing that happened to Winston, while Greensboro homeowners along the loop in extremely auto-dependent neighborhoods will watch their property values plummet.

I dont think that will happen because not everyone will want to live in high density neighborhoods thus suburbia will continue. If this were to happen to Greensboro, it would happen nationwide and i dont think our government is that stupid enough to let that happen in the long run.

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I dont think that will happen because not everyone will want to live in high density neighborhoods thus suburbia will continue. If this were to happen to Greensboro, it would happen nationwide and i dont think our government is that stupid enough to let that happen in the long run.

You misunderstand me. You think I am suggesting that people will move to downtowns because they want to. While I believe there is a large, untapped demand for living in urban downtowns, that is only part of the people who will move there.

The other group will be people who can no longer afford to live in suburbia because of the high transportation costs brought on by $100-$300/barrel oil.

If you're really interested in grappling with this question, read the following two articles.

Peak Oil Primer

The Long Emergency-The Implications of Peak Oil

You might also think of getting "The End of Suburbia" from Netflix.

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If everyone wanted to live in downtown b/c the price of oil made driving long distances cost prohibitive then wouldn't that demand cause the price of living in or near downtown skyrocket while causing home prices in the suburbs to plummet? Seems as if the cost of living downtown where everyone wants or needs to live would become so expensive that the cost of driving would almost even out because noone would want to drive 10-15 miles to work, so the suburbs would, in theory become more affordable. Dare we say they might become suburban/exurban ghettos....shadows of their former selves....?

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Winston-Salem already has more concentrated jobs in its downtown than Greensboro. But population is usully the benchmarck for being "first city". having a research economy doesnt mean its the first city. One good example is the Triangle. Durham's economy is more tied to research than Raleigh but Raleigh is the "1st city".

I wont say its impossible Winston will pass Greensboro in population but its not likely any time soon because both cities continue to annex. Just about every month Greensboro annexes but its usually 25 acres here or 100 acres there. I think Winston-Salem and Durham will keep shifting populational ranks because the two cities are alot closer in population than any of the 5 big cities.

I dont think that was the point he was trying to make. I think he meant PTRP could give W-S an edge in high-paying job growth, which would lead to population growth, retail and so on.

Only Charlotte and Raleigh have secured their positions. Greensboro's 3rd positon is very shaky. i wouldnt be suprised if Durham jumped up to 3rd...which is very likely with the popultion explosion in the Triangle. Same goes for Winston-Salem.

Greensboro - 240,000

Durham - 203,000

Winston-Salem - 193,000 - possible 210,000+ after annexation

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If everyone wanted to live in downtown b/c the price of oil made driving long distances cost prohibitive then wouldn't that demand cause the price of living in or near downtown skyrocket while causing home prices in the suburbs to plummet? Seems as if the cost of living downtown where everyone wants or needs to live would become so expensive that the cost of driving would almost even out because noone would want to drive 10-15 miles to work, so the suburbs would, in theory become more affordable. Dare we say they might become suburban/exurban ghettos....shadows of their former selves....?

BINGO! NCMike1981 gets it. Pressure for greater density would develop on land near ground transportation hubs, and in more walkable neighborhoods. To the extent that this density could be accomodated through teardowns and redevelopment, it would help to alleviate intense pressure on downtown housing markets.

If you look at the link to Long Emergency article I posted previously, the author does believe that the suburbs could become ghettos. I don't know if I'd go that far. It is possible that housing values will simply stagnate or significantly decline.

Another way to think about this is to contemplate the big winners in a scenario like this- small towns such as Salisbury and Kannapolis. Both have an excellent rail connection to local and national markets for passengers and freight. Both have walkable older districts. These places could perhaps densify and flourish.

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I dont think that will happen because not everyone will want to live in high density neighborhoods thus suburban will continue. If this were to happen to Greensboro, it would happen nationwide and i dont think our government is that stupid enough to let that happen in the long run.

Obviously you are not aware that we have reached our peak fuel production and its all downhill from here. Gas prices will continue to rise and all those who live in suburban areas will no longer be able to afford to live there. Those who are moving to urban areas now will only continue to see property values increase because urban living is going to be in high demand within the next 25 to 50 years. Suburban real estate values will continue to decrease.

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Obviously you are not aware that we have reached our peak fuel production and its all downhill from here. Gas prices will continue to rise and all those who live in suburban areas will no longer be able to afford to live there. Those who are moving to urban areas now will only continue to see property values increase because urban living is going to be in high demand within the next 25 to 50 years. Suburban real estate values will continue to decrease.

Im not ready to believe the suburbs are going to go downhill for a while. THe trend we are in now, if it continues to worsen for years and years and years then yes, i will then believe the flip flop of the suburbs will turn into decay and the central city will then become the choice for many americans to live in under the best attempt to conserve fuel that we are still using, oil. However, as i keep stressing from before, not everybody wants to live in a high dense area so it will take a while for Americans to go from green lawn backyards with a driveway to an high rise apartment or townhome with little to no space.

I am aware of the oil price/production flacuations and like it matters who i vote for to bring real change. Politicians are bought/influenced by corporate greed and persuaded by special interest so my vote is pointless and is still gonna cost me $30+ to fill my tank.

I am comfortable and happy with suburban/small town living and i fully support urban development in the cities so people are given even more choice to live wherever they really want. This may not be the solution to cheap oil again but if we stop pissing off the middle east by being the world police and stressing american-like democracy and as soon as possible finish the wars we started and pull out once Iraq and Afghanistan are on their two feet again, perhaps, our oil prices will go down and productivity will go up once there is more peace in the OPEC participating nations again. The war and other costs (tax returns just to begin with) are costing america a ton of money and how are we paying it? Sure we are taking out loans, bonds whatever needs to be done but dont you think our price of oil may have something to do with it? Instead of that $15 for a full tank, its $30 and my $15 is going to the damn US Government to pay for anytime Bush beleives a billion, trillion, gazillion dollars needs to be spent on whatever is needed, whether it is legitimate or not. America is known for its suburban living of housing tracts and shopping centers and im fine with it, thats how we evolved as the nation we live in. Maybe Canada is the only other country that comes close to our way of life. They are dealing with even higher gas prices than we are!

Lets not worry and think what will happen outside of the beltway but is the time to clean up government, run it as efficient as possible, pay off our debts and find ways to supply a reliable renewable source of energy to fuel our economy at reasonable prices; NOT to continue to use oil AND import it and let the middle east control us. Sustainability needs to be the top priority for the next president in office, republican or democrat.

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