The Triad In 2020

[sax184]

Im not ready to believe the suburbs are going to go downhill for a while. THe trend we are in now, if it continues to worsen for years and years and years then yes, i will then believe the flip flop of the suburbs will turn into decay and the central city will then become the choice for many americans to live in under the best attempt to conserve fuel that we are still using, oil. However, as i keep stressing from before, not everybody wants to live in a high dense area so it will take a while for Americans to go from green lawn backyards with a driveway to an high rise apartment or townhome with little to no space.

I am aware of the oil price/production flacuations and like it matters who i vote for to bring real change. Politicians are bought/influenced by corporate greed and persuaded by special interest so my vote is pointless and is still gonna cost me $30+ to fill my tank.

I am comfortable and happy with suburban/small town living and i fully support urban development in the cities so people are given even more choice to live wherever they really want. This may not be the solution to cheap oil again but if we stop pissing off the middle east by being the world police and stressing american-like democracy and as soon as possible finish the wars we started and pull out once Iraq and Afghanistan are on their two feet again, perhaps, our oil prices will go down and productivity will go up once there is more peace in the OPEC participating nations again. The war and other costs (tax returns just to begin with) are costing america a ton of money and how are we paying it? Sure we are taking out loans, bonds whatever needs to be done but dont you think our price of oil may have something to do with it? Instead of that $15 for a full tank, its $30 and my $15 is going to the damn US Government to pay for anytime Bush beleives a billion, trillion, gazillion dollars needs to be spent on whatever is needed, whether it is legitimate or not. America is known for its suburban living of housing tracts and shopping centers and im fine with it, thats how we evolved as the nation we live in. Maybe Canada is the only other country that comes close to our way of life. They are dealing with even higher gas prices than we are!

Lets not worry and think what will happen outside of the beltway but is the time to clean up government, run it as efficient as possible, pay off our debts and find ways to supply a reliable renewable source of energy to fuel our economy at reasonable prices; NOT to continue to use oil AND import it and let the middle east control us. Sustainability needs to be the top priority for the next president in office, republican or democrat.

You say that "Sustainability needs to be the top priority for the next president in office" but you also state that: "America is known for its suburban living of housing tracts and shopping centers and im fine with it, thats how we evolved as the nation we live in."

This contradiction is common to many suburban dwellers to profess an interest in reducing America's dependence on foreign oil until it actually requires them to make any personal lifestyle changes, however modest, to reach that goal. The idea of "suburbs or condo towers" is also a false one. Creating more mixed-use neighborhoods like Winston-Salem's West End would go a long way to solving this problem, but those are turned down by NIMBY groups as "too dense."

The price of oil is not severely impacted by the war right now. Most experts place the "uncertainty premium" of the war at about $5/barrel. The real determinant of the price of oil is supply and demand, and as oil is a FINITE RESOURCE, as we get to a period of declining supply in face of rising demand, prices will continue up and up. Assuming we ever get out of Iraq in 5-8 years, the price of oil will keep climbing steadily.

Also-- America did not evolve as a suburban nation. For the first 300 years of its history after pilgrims landed on Plymouth Rock, America was an urban nation marked by traditional forms of blocks, public squares, buildings that touch the sidewalk, and so on. We've only been screwing up massively for the last 60 or so years.

The idea that we will replace liquid fossil fuels is a fantasy. Each gallon of gasoline in your car represents approximately 196,000 pounds of prehistoric buried plant material. We are buring the stuff much, much faster than the earth replaces it.

Biodiesel, ethanol, and other such fuels take more energy to grow than we get out of them because we farm them with machinery fueled by (you guessed it) fossil fuels.

Again, I strongly recommend renting "The End of Suburbia," which explains all the issues of suburban development and declining energy supplies in a breezy, quick hour and 15 minutes. Of course, if the case is simply that "Im not ready to believe the suburbs are going to go downhill for a while," then I simply wish you a lot of luck.

[Jerseyman4]

Again, I strongly recommend renting "The End of Suburbia," which explains all the issues of suburban development and declining energy supplies in a breezy, quick hour and 15 minutes. Of course, if the case is simply that "Im not ready to believe the suburbs are going to go downhill for a while," then I simply wish you a lot of luck.

Perhaps i will on a rainy/snowy day if you feel this will enlighten me about the US energy crisis and suburbia. Im just making conversation but by any means, not starting a fight here! Economics is not my strong point so you make good points though i dont fully agree with everything you said but im leaving it at that.

[Tre 4]

I think Winston-Salem's Downtown will look like this in 2010.

[cityboi]

I dont think that was the point he was trying to make. I think he meant PTRP could give W-S an edge in high-paying job growth, which would lead to population growth, retail and so on.

Only Charlotte and Raleigh have secured their positions. Greensboro's 3rd positon is very shaky. i wouldnt be suprised if Durham jumped up to 3rd...which is very likely with the popultion explosion in the Triangle. Same goes for Winston-Salem.

Greensboro - 240,000

Durham - 203,000

Winston-Salem - 193,000 - possible 210,000+ after annexation

If Greensboro stopped annexing then yes Durham would pass Greensboro. But with the jobs and FedEx headed here I dont see that happening at least not in the foreseeable future.

[Tre 4]

I see The population For the top 5 North Carloina Cities as this in 2010.

1. Charlotte 950,000

2. Raleigh 425,000

3. Greensboro 279,000

4.Winston-Salem 250,001

5.Durham 250,000

[Hotlanta]

I see The population For the top 5 North Carloina Cities as this in 2010.

1. Charlotte 850,000

2. Raleigh 425,000

3. Winston-Salem 270,000

4. Greensboro 269,000

5.Durham 260,000

There is NO way that Winston could add almosy seventy or sixty thousand people in four years! Now I don't know if you meant 2020 but still even that is a longshot. I know by 2010 Charlotte will be pushing very close to 1,000,000 residents but it will probably be around your prediction.

[cityboi]

Also I dont see WInston-Salem passing Greensboro anytime soon. Even if the city annexed to the max thats allowed Winston-Salem would not pass Greensboro in population because Greensboro has a higher density in population. In order for W-S to pass Greensboro in the near future, thousands and thousands of people would have to move to Winston-Salem over night. You dont even see that kind of growth in major cities.

[twincity]

^ what does population densitiy have to do with population growth? all im saying that the bottom three in the top five are between 200,000 and 250,000. anybody could take the lead and anybody could fall to 5th. there are no signs of a population jump in Greensboro, yet...but there are some signs here in Winston-Salem and Durham IMO.

if W-S's mass annexation takes place that would bring 18,000 people into the city limits. that was the population 2 years ago and its more than likely greater now. so if W-S brings in 20,000 we will be about 25,000 behind greensboro. thats nothing.

[Hotlanta]

^ what does population densitiy have to do with population growth? all im saying that the bottom three in the top five are between 200,000 and 250,000. anybody could take the lead and anybody could fall to 5th. there are no signs of a population jump in Greensboro, yet...but there are some signs here in Winston-Salem and Durham IMO.

if W-S's mass annexation takes place that would bring 18,000 people into the city limits. that was the population 2 years ago and its more than likely greater now. so if W-S brings in 20,000 we will be about 25,000 behind greensboro. thats nothing.

when is that annexation supposed to go through?

[Tre 4]

^ what does population densitiy have to do with population growth? all im saying that the bottom three in the top five are between 200,000 and 250,000. anybody could take the lead and anybody could fall to 5th. there are no signs of a population jump in Greensboro, yet...but there are some signs here in Winston-Salem and Durham IMO.

if W-S's mass annexation takes place that would bring 18,000 people into the city limits. that was the population 2 years ago and its more than likely greater now. so if W-S brings in 20,000 we will be about 25,000 behind greensboro. thats nothing.

Thank You Twin City

[Tre 4]

I

[blburton]

Raleigh's pop will probably be even higher than that based on current trends (prob pushing 450K). I think it's crazy to see how fast some of the past "small" towns have grown in Wake County... Morrisville and Holly Springs have grown from populations less than 1000 in 1990 to over 15000 residents today. Apex has more than doubled its population in that time. Then you have Cary which has gone from a small-town suburb of Raleigh to currently, the 7th most populous city in NC. Fayetteville's population actually isn't too far behind Winston-Salem since their annexation in July brought in over 40,000 residents. I think it now stands around 183,000 as the 6th most populous city in NC. Doesn't have much to do with the posting, but I thought the information was pretty interesting and "post worthy"!

I see The population For the top 5 North Carloina Cities as this in 2010.

1. Charlotte 950,000

2. Raleigh 425,000

3. Greensboro 279,000

4.Winston-Salem 250,001

5.Durham 250,000

[Hotlanta]

I think Wnston's Skyline will look like this 2010 or 2015.

Look like what?

[Tre 4]

Look like what?

I could not get it on the web page for some reason.

[bdp]

Winston-Salem already has more concentrated jobs in its downtown than Greensboro. But population is usully the benchmarck for being "first city". having a research economy doesnt mean its the first city. One good example is the Triangle. Durham's economy is more tied to research than Raleigh but Raleigh is the "1st city". Both Greensboro and Winston-Salem will see alot of jobs. We'll likely see more RF Micro Devices type companies in Greensboro along with more distribution centers.

I wont say its impossible Winston will pass Greensboro in population but its not likely any time soon because both cities continue to annex. Just about every month Greensboro annexes but its usually 25 acres here or 100 acres there. I think Winston-Salem and Durham will keep shifting populational ranks because the two cities are alot closer in population than any of the 5 big cities.

just sticking my nose in here... Raleigh is 'first city' in the triangle because it is the largest, yes, and the state capital, but also because most of the people working in the research jobs in Durham (rtp is mostly in durham county but parts are in wake too) actually RESIDE in Raleigh, and that's where they spend their money.

[Raleighsfinest]

How can Charlotte grow by 300,000 people in 4 years? I see Charlotte's population growing by 100,000 to 750,000, by 2010. That's a more realistic estimate. Remember the only reason Charlotte got a big pop. boost last time, was because of the massive annexation. Other than that Charlotte's growth has been pretty moderate. Raleigh on the other hand has been naturally explosive.

[cityboi]

^ what does population densitiy have to do with population growth? all im saying that the bottom three in the top five are between 200,000 and 250,000. anybody could take the lead and anybody could fall to 5th. there are no signs of a population jump in Greensboro, yet...but there are some signs here in Winston-Salem and Durham IMO.

if W-S's mass annexation takes place that would bring 18,000 people into the city limits. that was the population 2 years ago and its more than likely greater now. so if W-S brings in 20,000 we will be about 25,000 behind greensboro. thats nothing.

Once Winston-Salem goes through with its annexation there wont be a heck of alot of land left to annex with exception to the southeast part of town near Dell. but thats mainly farm land now and not alot of people live there. There are a number of communities around Winston that have incorporated which kinda locks Winston-Salem in. Greensboro on the other had has alot of land to annex especially east of the current city limits. The loop will help increase population in those areas. But there is enough land to annex to double the geographic size of Greensboro. As long as Greensboro has land to annex, Greensboro will keep its postition as being 3rd largest city in the state.

[Tre 4]

Winston-Salem cannot annex that much more land because of Clemmons, and other small towns IN Forsyth County. But there's lot's of room for Greensboro to annex.

[Jerseyman4]

NW Guilford is seeing a housing boom along NC 68 and US 220 in the Oak Ridge area.

[DigitalSky]

NW Guilford is seeing a housing boom along NC 68 and US 220 in the Oak Ridge area.

Yeah a big sprawly boom.

[Oatmill]

A New Mall is need by this time.

[cityboi]

That new mall will likely be built near the I-840/I-73 - Bryan Blvd interchange. There definately is a big residential boom in that area of town.

But the flood gates are opening to eastern Guilford County and we are seeing alot of residential development there as well.

[Creasy336]

By 2020 Burlington will have a population of atleast 35,000 in Guilford County. Whitsett will either become an island in the middle of West Burlington or will be annexed as part of Burlington. Maybe Alamance county's municapalities will realize that merging into 1 city maybe named "Alamance City" leaving only Mebane, Woodlawn and Ossipee the only other incorporated muncipalities makes sense. I'll save that for a future topic because right now I don't know who on urbanplanet can relate with me on that right now.

[blburton]

I have lived in the eastern part of Gibsonville pretty much my whole life, so I know exactly what you are talking about. With respect to Burlington, I am very interested to see how Whitsett, Gibsonville, and Elon will grow. Gibsonville can grow to the north, west, and southwest, but not anywhere else because of Elon and Burlington. Elon can't grow anywhere but north because of Gibsonville to the west and Burlington to the east and south. Then for Whitsett, you have Brightwood Farms, which once completed, will likely at least double the town's current population of ~600 residents.

So by 2020, I think that Burlington will have a population of around 70,000 residents and grow as far west as Whitsett or Stoney Creek... and Greensboro will grow as far east as near Sedalia with a pop around 275,000-300,000. The drive from Greensboro to Burlington on Hwy 70 will feature all kinds of residential stuff with shopping centers, restaurants, suburbia, etc. Much more traffic. Much less in the way of a quiet country drive Hwy 70 used to be and still is in some parts. There is now a blinking light at Birch Creek Rd. and Hwy 70 prob in response to traffic issues coming from the 2 new large developments that connect mcleansville rd and birch creek..... signs of Greensboro's eastward progress. I thnk it will be similar to riding on I-85 from the Spencer/Concord area to Charlotte where now suburbia has connected the 2 areas and there is civilization area where back 15 years ago, there was some quiet time between the 2 cities.

By 2020 Burlington will have a population of atleast 35,000 in Guilford County. Whitsett will either become an island in the middle of West Burlington or will be annexed as part of Burlington. Maybe Alamance county's municapalities will realize that merging into 1 city maybe named "Alamance City" leaving only Mebane, Woodlawn and Ossipee the only other incorporated muncipalities makes sense. I'll save that for a future topic because right now I don't know who on urbanplanet can relate with me on that right now.

[Creasy336]

I have lived in the eastern part of Gibsonville pretty much my whole life, so I know exactly what you are talking about. With respect to Burlington, I am very interested to see how Whitsett, Gibsonville, and Elon will grow. Gibsonville can grow to the north, west, and southwest, but not anywhere else because of Elon and Burlington. Elon can't grow anywhere but north because of Gibsonville to the west and Burlington to the east and south. Then for Whitsett, you have Brightwood Farms, which once completed, will likely at least double the town's current population of ~600 residents.

So by 2020, I think that Burlington will have a population of around 70,000 residents and grow as far west as Whitsett or Stoney Creek... and Greensboro will grow as far east as near Sedalia with a pop around 275,000-300,000. The drive from Greensboro to Burlington on Hwy 70 will feature all kinds of residential stuff with shopping centers, restaurants, suburbia, etc. Much more traffic. Much less in the way of a quiet country drive Hwy 70 used to be and still is in some parts. There is now a blinking light at Birch Creek Rd. and Hwy 70 prob in response to traffic issues coming from the 2 new large developments that connect mcleansville rd and birch creek..... signs of Greensboro's eastward progress. I thnk it will be similar to riding on I-85 from the Spencer/Concord area to Charlotte where now suburbia has connected the 2 areas and there is civilization area where back 15 years ago, there was some quiet time between the 2 cities.

Gibsonville's population is set to double by 2010. A recent land swap between Burlington and gibsonville now has Gibsonville from US 70 to the north and Burlington to the south of US 70. Exit 138 is now within Burlington city limits. ( 3 miles from Stoney Creek exit 138 ) Also Brightwood Farms and the Ridge creek townhome community are slated to become Burlington eventhough Whitsett is in the way. This will make whitsett an island with Burlington and Gibsonville surrounding it. Here is some info on Brightwood...

Brightwood farms 1 Here is another link, notice the left side The article is back from 2004 I believe that most of those project either completed or underway. The annexation line they speak of is the one between Greensboro and Burlington that roughly divides Stoney Creek between the 2. By 2020 I'm sure Elon will become a destination of some sorts. It is already a beautiful college town growing by leaps and bounds every year since gaining university status. Does anyone when the widen 70 if it will be 4 lanes with a grassy median or 5 lanes (4 lanes plus center lane)? I hope its 4 lanes with a grassy median because Church Street does not need to meet Wendover Avenue in that fashion. This would only be an opening for bad development.