The Triad In 2020

[gso27]

Winston-Salem might have more land area, but Greensboro will continue to be more dense. Hopefully by then the Triad will have a central planning agency with teeth that will cap sprawl and oversee an efficent mass transit system with a main hub somewhere near the airport.

[cityboi]

Winston-Salem might have more land area, but Greensboro will continue to be more dense. Hopefully by then the Triad will have a central planning agency with teeth that will cap sprawl and oversee an efficent mass transit system with a main hub somewhere near the airport.

[blburton]

I think you are on target with the "counties to watch". Being from western Alamance County and living here my whole life, I'm very interested in seeing what the 2010 census results say. I wouldn't be surprised to see the population of the county exceeding 150,000 by then.

Some projections - these are from the NC state demographics units, whose estimates are supervised by the state demographer and are based on yearly rates of increase (in percentages) at state and county levels - the 1st # is 2000 population, with estimates at 5-year intervals thereafter. I've listed the Triad counties at the top, with various major urban and suburban counties afterwards, as points of comparison:

County April 2000 July 2005 April 2010 July 2015 April 2020 July 2025 April 2030

ALAMANCE --- 130,794 --- 138,578 --- 147,988 --- 157,896 --- 168,839 --- 179,573 --- 191,145

DAVIDSON --- 147,250 --- 154,304 --- 162,201 --- 170,108 --- 178,407 --- 186,360 --- 194,452

DAVIE ---------- 34,835 ---- 38,937 ---- 42,744 ---- 46,384 ---- 50,215 ---- 53,968 ----- 57,830

FORSYTH ----- 306,063 ---- 326,346 ---347,470 --- 368,087 --- 389,843 --- 411,472 --- 433,828

GUILFORD --- 421,048 ---- 441,439 --- 471,832 --- 500,512 --- 530,927 --- 560,602 --- 591,403

RANDOLPH --- 130,471 ---- 137,286 --- 146,561 --- 155,507 -- 165,457 --- 174,709 --- 184,773

ROCKINGHAM 91,928 ---- 91,813 ---- 92,779 ------ 93,479 --- 94,561 ---- 95,091 ----- 95,922

STOKES -------- 44,711 ---- 46,236 ---- 48,590 ------ 50,685 --- 52,999 ---- 54,957 ----- 57,062

SURRY ---------- 71,216 ---- 73,046 ---- 76,501 ------ 79,139 --- 82,470 ---- 85,298 ----- 88,715

YADKIN --------- 36,348 ---- 37,405 ---- 39,538 ------ 41,346 --- 43,643 ---- 45,549 ----- 47,863

__________

BRUNSWICK ....73,141 .....89,469 .....102,799 .....115,517 .....127,265 .....139,212 .....150,050

BUNCOMBE ....206,289 ....216,731 .....229,358 .....242,280 .....255,572 .....268,059 .....280,693

CABARRUS ....131,063 .....150,437 .....168,850 .....188,603 .....209,424 .....231,127 .....253,660

CATAWBA ......141,677 .....149,040 .....158,132 .....167,303 ......177,080 .....186,510 .....196,477

CHATHAM ........49,329 ......56,090 .......61,635 .......67,678 ..........73,617 .....79,850 ......85,877

CUMBERLAND ..302,967 ...305,178 .....312,107 .....322,416 .....331,234 ......340,302 ......347,947

DURHAM ..........223,314 ...242,207 .....258,398 ......276,980 .....294,240 .....313,428 .......331,275

EDGECOMBE .....55,606 .....53,033 .......51,329 ........49,579 .......47,937 ......46,054 ........44,278

GASTON .........190,316 ....193,890 ......199,534 ......203,900 ....208,062 ......211,741 .....214,920

GRANVILLE .......48,498 ......53,360 .......57,592 ........62,357 .......67,165 ......71,859 .......76,503

HARNETT ..........91,025 .....101,612 .....112,581 .......124,474 .....136,566 ....149,027 .....161,345

HOKE ...............33,646 ........40,697..... 47,609 .........54,606 .......61,839 ......69,598 .......77,464

IREDELL ..........122,660 ......139,732 ....155,652 .......172,112 ....189,406 ......206,894 ....224,705

JOHNSTON .......121,900 ......146,319 ....169,143 .......193,694 ....218,868 ......245,702 ....272,744

LEE ...................49,208 ........53,786 ......58,196 ........62,501 ........67,180 ......71,693 .....76,573

LINCOLN ...........63,780 ........69,532 ......75,837 ........81,731 .........88,275 ......94,175 ....100,598

MECKLENBURG ..695,370 ....796,245 .....900,146 .....1,005,338 ....1,111,435 ..1,223,194 ...1,335,182

MOORE ..............74,762 .......80,863 .......87,434 ..........93,568 ......100,093 ...106,153 ......112,493

NASH ................87,385 .......91,548 .......96,007 ..........100,271 ......104,736 ...108,822 .....112,922

NEW HANOVER ..160,327 .....180,359 .....200,213 .........218,418 ......235,778 ...253,092 .....269,305

ONSLOW ...........150,355 .....157,738 ......159,528 ........163,646 ......164,682 ...168,012 .....168,479

ORANGE ............115,537 .....121,992 ......130,375 ........138,272 ......146,458 ....153,626 ....161,118

PITT ..................133,719 .....143,212 ......153,411 ........163,258 .......173,193 ...182,890 .....192,493

ROWAN .............130,340 ......133,344 ......139,427 ........145,974 .......153,310 ...160,078 ....167,457

UNION ...............123,772 .....161,338 ......191,434 ........222,909 ......254,953 ....289,789 .....324,271

WAKE ...............627,866 ......755,053 ......876,643 .....1,004,055 ....1,133,110 ..1,269,111 ...1,404,751

WAYNE .............113,329 .......115,718 ......119,222 .......122,290 .......125,701 ....128,444 ....131,533

WILSON .............73,811 ........76,834 ........80,080 .........82,934 .........86,222 .......89,006 .......92,146

Most of these look reasonable to me (I'm no demographer). To make a random look around the state, there are a few counties (Granville, Gaston, Chatham, perhaps Iredell & Alamance) where I'm thinking the estimates may be a little low, but I really think they are on target mostly. Of course, with any projections, there are always unknowable variables, from shifts in development trends (urbanism becoming popular!), to the unexpected success/failure of things like Carolina North/PTRP/etc, infrastructure improvements and failures, migrations from elsewhere, global warming, future wars or the lack thereof (especially in Wayne, Cumberland, Onslow), etc etc...

Sooo...I couldn't find city estimates (with annexations and incorporations, they'd be wildly inaccurate anyway). But by 2020, our estimated largest counties would be:

Wake - 1,133,110

Mecklenburg - 1,111,435

Guilford - 530,927

Forsyth - 389,843

Cumberland - 331,234

Durham - 294,240

New Hanover - 235,778

Buncombe - 255,572

Union - 254,953

Johnston - 218,868

Cabarrus - 209,424

Gaston - 208,062

A few more (edit) thoughts and notes:

Meck, Wake, Forsyth and New Hanover - by the way - are projected to be the most dense; I would guess due to geographical constraints, annexation "spheres of influence" and how growth is being focused within those areas, county boundaires, or unknown (to me) local trends.

On looking back over this, a few numbers that I think are accurate are attention getters: Pitt Co/Greenville, at the center of several counties projected to lose population, is projected to gain big, perhaps due to a combination of ECU's economic stimulus and a brain drain/labor drain out of rural counties. The other big gainers (like Union and Johnston especially) are no surprise; though I kinda shudder at what they may end up looking like. Alamance will be interesting - it is perfectly situated to grow smart, or to grow ugly and sprawly, between the Triad and Triangle. S Alamance is fairly rugged, which I think will be protected (I hope), and I would guess that the growth will be focused down the W-E central Alamance core, but I think that will densify a good bit, gradually.

[cityboi]

The NHL failed in Greensboro. Only when teams like the NY Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins or Philadelphia Flyers would come into town, they would get sell outs most of the time. A lot of people from Raleigh & Charlotte would drive out to see the opposing team play.

NHL Attendance:

----------------------------------1997-98 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1998-99 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 1999-00 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2000-01 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2001-02 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 2002-03

Carolina Hurricanes (GBO)-----9086---{sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}}--8188

Carolina Hurricanes (RAL)--------------------------{sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}}-12401----{sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 13346 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 15052 {sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}} 15682

[Skyline49er]

true. The big reason for the team failing in Greensboro was becasue it was Raleigh's team playing in Greensboro. for two seasons. Attendance would have been much higher if the team actually came to Greensboro. Greensboro sold out its AHL team (Carolina Monarchs) for two seasons of having the NHL. The AHL is one level under the NHL. Its like AAA baseball.

Some of the NHL Play Station games from 1998 and 1999 actually had Greensboro Coliseum and its logo spelled out on the floor on the game for the Hurricanes home arena.

[sax184]

I think we might have light rail, but only between two of the cities like Winston or Greensboro. That might go a different way and be G-boro and H-Point. With the Stratford Road corridor being a light rail corridor too. There will probley be a commuter rail or at least intercity rail connecting all three cities and a line probley still being constructed to bring traffic down threw Mocksville and to Charlotte. Amtrak(or whats ever left) might have trains running from Ronaoke down threw Winston and to Charlotte(via. Lexington). Bus transit will be all over the triad. 74/73 will be complete and sprawl will make 85 from t-ville to orange county a dense looking suburb. 311 between H-point and winston will probley be some sort of office park with lots and lots of sprawl. A new mall type thing like that of the failed Universtiy Place will probley reside in this area. There still will be some rual pockets even in the "Heart of the Triad" but overall the Triad cities will be much more developed. High Point will probley just getting it's downtown to Greensboro's level and G-boro and Winston will be at the point Charlotte is today. Just a lil more street retail tho.

[DigitalSky]

yeah it seems like high point itself is dying

[RALNATIVE]

The Carolina Hurricans were in Greensboro?

[TheDash]

In 2020 i see Winston-Salem having the same population as Greensboro, But i think Winston-Salem will feel bigger because of our downtown and they might have a streetcar system.

Which city do you guys think will get a Major League sport team first???

[Comet]

In 2020 i see Winston-Salem having the same population as Greensboro, But i think Winston-Salem will feel bigger because of our downtown and they might have a streetcar system.

Which city do you guys think will get a Major League sport team first???

[CSP]

"Which city do you guys think will get a Major League sport team first???"

I've always seen GBoro with a Major league team.

[blburton]

By 2020, I say neither city will have a team.

[roningreensboro]

"Which city do you guys think will get a Major League sport team first???"

I've always seen GBoro with a Major league team.

[roningreensboro]

I think we are going to see major growth in all the Triad cities but i think with the upcoming interstates/urban loop, the airport and FedEx, Greensboro will see the most growth/development in the next 20 years. Those factors will give Greensboro the edge over any o fthe other cities.

[winston's finest]

i think Winston-Salem could be the largest city by 2020 if it uses its recent high rankings and increased job growth as a way to set itself apart from gboro and grasp the companies and jobs before they get to greensboro because thanks to the annexation Winston-Salem is only a few thousand people less than Gboro.

Also because if things continue like they are the new FedEx hub at the airport could lead to a continued burst in commercial construction and new companies to Kernersville over Gboro.

I'm from Winston and I am partial so I want the best for it, but we will see in the future

I just want both cities to grow and use all of their full potential

[Bosox28]

I can see GSO getting a major league baseball team with the First Horizon Park here and the Marlines owning the Grasshoppers.

[roningreensboro]

no way GSO gets a big league team...especially downtown. where would people park????

[Bosox28]

Hopefully by that time GSO would have matured somewhat to a walking city. Look at Wrigley Field. No parking but people find a way. Also the stadium can be built on south elm past lee street.

[cityboi]

certainly I see the Triad in a very good position by 2020 based on whats happening today. In the next few years Greensboro's population is going to increase by 15,000 because of continued growth around the city which Greensboro will annex. Greensboro should be at 255,000 by then, past the quarter of a million threshold. FedEx is attracing jobs nad companies and Honda Jet and Dell are just the start of what I see as a prosperous future for the Triad.

[blburton]

I agree. The Triad as a whole is on the brink of a population boom. The 2010-2020 decade will see changes that may transform the whole region. The growth and maturity of PTRP and GURP, continued expansion and national attention/populatiry of Triad universities, multiple major downtown revitalization projects, the completion of a new network of freeways, and Dell, FedEx, and HondaJet will be completed by 2015 if not earlier. Plus you have cheaper living costs compared to the other large NC metros. The populations posted for Guilford, Forsyth, and Alamance counties on the state demographer's page are definitely underestimated.

certainly I see the Triad in a very good position by 2020 based on whats happening today. In the next few years Greensboro's population is going to increase by 15,000 because of continued growth around the city which Greensboro will annex. Greensboro should be at 255,000 by then, past the quarter of a million threshold. FedEx is attracing jobs nad companies and Honda Jet and Dell are just the start of what I see as a prosperous future for the Triad.

[krazeeboi]

OK, let me be devil's advocate for a moment, if I may.

These days, it appears as though every other midsized metro area in the South is involved in all that was mentioned in the previous post (creating/nurturing research campuses, investment in higher education, downtown revitalization, infrastructure upgrades, etc.). And the South as a whole is pretty cheap to live in. So does all of this guarantee a population boom, or will it just keep the Triad in the game and ensure that it will at least experience modest, steady growth over the next few years?

[cityboi]

OK, let me be devil's advocate for a moment, if I may.

These days, it appears as though every other midsized metro area in the South is involved in all that was mentioned in the previous post (creating/nurturing research campuses, investment in higher education, downtown revitalization, infrastructure upgrades, etc.). And the South as a whole is pretty cheap to live in. So does all of this guarantee a population boom, or will it just keep the Triad in the game and ensure that it will at least experience modest, steady growth over the next few years?

[nowensone]

It reeks of homerism and while I typically think cityboi is optimistic almost to the point of naivety, I have to agree with him here - the Triad does have a better case for boom growth than most other locations like it. But that doesn't mean that it will boom, just that it could, it would appear to have some history of avoiding or missing growth opportunities (depending on one's point of view).

[RALNATIVE]

It reeks of homerism and while I typically think cityboi is optimistic almost to the point of naivety, I have to agree with him here - the Triad does have a better case for boom growth than most other locations like it. But that doesn't mean that it will boom, just that it could, it would appear to have some history of avoiding or missing growth opportunities (depending on one's point of view).

[cityboi]

I will also play devil's advocate here and use FedEx as an example. Just because FedEx is opening a hub in the Triad, that does not necessarily mean that a boatload of companies will be lining up to relocate businesses there. The only businesses that this will appeal to are businesses that use a company like FedEx for the bulk of their express shipping needs. What does a company gain by being located near a FedEx hub, when FedEx will virtually ship express shipments anywhere in the country overnight? I think that a FedEx ground shipping hub would be more beneficial than the express air shipping hub.

If you're expecting FedEx to be the main draw for most major companies, that's definitely naive.