Growth Rate of Northwest Arkansas

[Mith242]

I think many people know that the NWA metro was one of the fastest growing in the country in the 90's. I believe we were 6th. What do you guys think we'll be for the first decade of the 21st century? Obviously it's hard to keep up that kind of growth. Also considering we weren't that big to begin with so those impressive numbers were in some ways a bit easier. As NWA gets larger it will be much harder to come even close to those percentages. We might keep growing at a good pace but I'm not predicting us to be the next Las Vegas in terms of population growth. Anyway what do you guys think we'll be at for this decade?

[mcheiss]

Growth rates will continue as they are for the next few years. Then, Infastructure will not be able to keep up with the growth, and growth will start to dissipate little by little over the next few years. Within 15 years, we should be growing at about the rate Little Rock is.

[Mith242]

Growth rates will continue as they are for the next few years. Then, Infastructure will not be able to keep up with the growth, and growth will start to dissipate little by little over the next few years. Within 15 years, we should be growing at about the rate Little Rock is.

But do you think there's any way we could actually make top ten again? I'm guessing that growth simply isn't going to be as great because our metro has added people and now it will take increased growth just to hit the top ten again.

[mcheiss]

^With the way road projects and other infastructure, not to mention job growth outlook, I can't see NWA growing at the rate it is right now for the next 15 years.

[Mith242]

^With the way road projects and other infastructure, not to mention job growth outlook, I can't see NWA growing at the rate it is right now for the next 15 years.

What about for the 2000-2010 decade period? Think there's any chance we could possibly be top ten like we were for the 90's? If not, any guess where we'll be ranked?

[masons_dad1]

^

My vote is that Northwest Arkansas will be in the Top Ten Fastest Growing Regions due to the fact that, although there are many cities growing faster, when you look at the metro that city is attached to the growth is much lower. The growth rate for a metro is based on an average of growth for each city in the metro and since all of Northwest Arkansas is growing fast and not just some parts I'd say it'll top the list.

[Mith242]

^

My vote is that Northwest Arkansas will be in the Top Ten Fastest Growing Regions due to the fact that, although there are many cities growing faster, when you look at the metro that city is attached to the growth is much lower. The growth rate for a metro is based on an average of growth for each city in the metro and since all of Northwest Arkansas is growing fast and not just some parts I'd say it'll top the list.

You have some valid points. I just wish I could have a better feel for if there's about the same amount of people moving in as there were in the 90's. But if we just had the same amount moving in the percentage still drops because you have a larger base population. I think that really helped NWA vault into the top ten. But to stay in the top ten means you'd have to have more people move in to counterbalance the larger base population. I'm not sure if population growth is greater now than it was back in the 90's.

[masons_dad1]

You have some valid points. I just wish I could have a better feel for if there's about the same amount of people moving in as there were in the 90's. But if we just had the same amount moving in the percentage still drops because you have a larger base population. I think that really helped NWA vault into the top ten. But to stay in the top ten means you'd have to have more people move in to counterbalance the larger base population. I'm not sure if population growth is greater now than it was back in the 90's.

I guess it would depend on the reasons people were moving to NWA in the 90's versus this decade. In the 90's Tyson and the University were bringing in the most people, and this decade I believe will show that Wal-Mart is bringing in a lot of people. Added to the fact that Tyson and the University are still bringing in a lot of people.

[Mith242]

This doesn't quite fit here but I really don't know where to put this and figured I might as well just try to revive an older topic than to start a new one for just a small bit of info. Some rankings came out and it sounds like NWA is ranked 319th in car theft. I heard this on KNWA and they didn't offer a lot of details. The only other thing mentioned was that Little Rock was 34th.

[Aporkalypse]

Growth rates will continue as they are for the next few years. Then, Infastructure will not be able to keep up with the growth, and growth will start to dissipate little by little over the next few years. Within 15 years, we should be growing at about the rate Little Rock is.

I think you're probably right but the wild card is diversification of employers.

I can tell you this much, population growth will continue to substantially exceed the national average as long as jobs are being created to keep that unemployment number one of the nation's lowest. People are moving to NWA for the jobs, if the job market slows the population growth will.

[strmchsr77]

This doesn't quite fit here but I really don't know where to put this and figured I might as well just try to revive an older topic than to start a new one for just a small bit of info. Some rankings came out and it sounds like NWA is ranked 319th in car theft. I heard this on KNWA and they didn't offer a lot of details. The only other thing mentioned was that Little Rock was 34th.

That is one category that I don't mind being ranked in the 300s on. Although my uncle's car was stolen 2 weeks ago....but then returned a few minutes later because of OnStar...lol.

[Mith242]

That is one category that I don't mind being ranked in the 300s on. Although my uncle's car was stolen 2 weeks ago....but then returned a few minutes later because of OnStar...lol.

Sorry to hear that happened to him. Just out of curiousity where exactly did this happen at?

[masons_dad1]

This doesn't quite fit here but I really don't know where to put this and figured I might as well just try to revive an older topic than to start a new one for just a small bit of info. Some rankings came out and it sounds like NWA is ranked 319th in car theft. I heard this on KNWA and they didn't offer a lot of details. The only other thing mentioned was that Little Rock was 34th.

I wonder where NWA ranks for drive-by shootings? Used to be it just didn't happen here, but with tremendous growth comes tremendous problems. I do know that there are certain apartment complexes in Rogers that have weekly break-ins into cars and apartments. NWA isn't a place you can leave you doors unlocked anymore.

[strmchsr77]

Sorry to hear that happened to him. Just out of curiousity where exactly did this happen at?

Siloam Springs, believe it or not.

[mcheiss]

I wonder where NWA ranks for drive-by shootings? Used to be it just didn't happen here, but with tremendous growth comes tremendous problems. I do know that there are certain apartment complexes in Rogers that have weekly break-ins into cars and apartments. NWA isn't a place you can leave you doors unlocked anymore.

NWA isn't a Los Angeles by any chance, I think we only average about 5 homicides up here a year. I do know that one apartment complex in northeast Rogers averages atleast 1 police call a day.

[masons_dad1]

NWA isn't a Los Angeles by any chance, I think we only average about 5 homicides up here a year. I do know that one apartment complex in northeast Rogers averages atleast 1 police call a day.

Yes, but I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing double digit homicides in NWA within the next 10 years. Especially, with all the illegal immigrants that keep coming here. Many of them have prison records in their country.

[Aporkalypse]

Yes, but I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing double digit homicides in NWA within the next 10 years. Especially, with all the illegal immigrants that keep coming here. Many of them have prison records in their country.

I agree, that's the biggest threat in NWA. I think you'll see a handful of apartment complexes become notorious for crime. I kind of worry about where Lindsay's plain-jane apts will be in a decade or two, I kind of think they'll all be slummish. Of course, there are nice apartments in Benton Co and Fayetteville. I still don't see the crime rate in NWA approaching that in LR, though.

[mcheiss]

The NWA Metro area will lead population growth among other areas in Arkansas through 2020, according to a state economic forecast by Greg Hamilton, director of research for the University of Arkansas at Little Rock's Institute for Economic Advancement.

According to Hamilton's report, that the metro will reach a population of about 600,000 by 2020, up 84 percent from about 325,000 in 2000. That equals an annualized growth rate of about 3.1 percent.

The Little Rock-North Little Rock metropolitan area is expected to see an annualized growth rate of only about 1.5 percent, to reach a population of about 815,000 in 2020, up from 610,000 in 2000.

[Mith242]

The NWA Metro area will lead population growth among other areas in Arkansas through 2020, according to a state economic forecast by Greg Hamilton, director of research for the University of Arkansas at Little Rock's Institute for Economic Advancement.

According to Hamilton's report, that the metro will reach a population of about 600,000 by 2020, up 84 percent from about 325,000 in 2000. That equals an annualized growth rate of about 3.1 percent.

The Little Rock-North Little Rock metropolitan area is expected to see an annualized growth rate of only about 1.5 percent, to reach a population of about 815,000 in 2020, up from 610,000 in 2000.

Beat me to it. Yeah it looks like 1.7% is the highest percentage predicted outside of NWA.

[das450]

In response to the law enforcement comments consider this:

In NW AR the majority of stolen vehicles are unlocked vehicles with keys left in the vehicle or ignition. Go to any convenience store and you will see it. Some cars are reported stolen originally and then cleared because they are found. In these cases the cars are repossed or are actually Unauthorized Use of a Vehicle and are reported incorrectly by law enforcement. Unauthorized use would be if I let my uncle borrow my car and he doesn't return it. It isn't really stolen (long term deprivation of property) just inconsiderate and rude but in order to get it back sometimes it is entered into the database as stolen so when other law enforcement run across it it is recovered faster. Bottom line - sometiems reporting skews the numbers. It is very uncommon in NW AR for a car to be stolen by forced entry and the ignition altered as is very popular in major cities. Auto insurance premiums are very low in NW AR and the low theft and the kind of thefts are the reasons.

Drive By Shootings are rare in NW AR. Don't let the media sensationalize your viewpoints.

Apartment complexes grow with the times and law enforcement is working with area apartment complexes to head off future problems before they start.

[masons_dad1]

In response to the law enforcement comments consider this:

In NW AR the majority of stolen vehicles are unlocked vehicles with keys left in the vehicle or ignition. Go to any convenience store and you will see it. Some cars are reported stolen originally and then cleared because they are found. In these cases the cars are repossed or are actually Unauthorized Use of a Vehicle and are reported incorrectly by law enforcement. Unauthorized use would be if I let my uncle borrow my car and he doesn't return it. It isn't really stolen (long term deprivation of property) just inconsiderate and rude but in order to get it back sometimes it is entered into the database as stolen so when other law enforcement run across it it is recovered faster. Bottom line - sometiems reporting skews the numbers. It is very uncommon in NW AR for a car to be stolen by forced entry and the ignition altered as is very popular in major cities. Auto insurance premiums are very low in NW AR and the low theft and the kind of thefts are the reasons.

Drive By Shootings are rare in NW AR. Don't let the media sensationalize your viewpoints.

Apartment complexes grow with the times and law enforcement is working with area apartment complexes to head off future problems before they start.

I agree that a lot of crimes are reported that aren't actually turn out to be misunderstandings but they still go on the record books as a crime. And the media does sensationalize homicide by calling a random murder a drive-by shooting which makes it sound gang related. I do find it curious that many people still don't lock up their bikes in the apartments I live in and even though my apartment complex is much nicer and seems safer than most of the nearby complexes it's still not a good idea to leave doors and bikes unlocked. While it used to be common practice to leave doors and property unlocked today it's just common sense to protect your property. Although some people might say locking your car doors only forces a criminal to break the window to steal the car or property inside it so sometimes it's better to just leave car doors unlocked.

Law enforcement agencies in NWA have a list of suspect apartment communities and seedier neighborhoods that are routinely patrolled to prevent crimes which is a good idea. When I lived at Sunset Apartments in Springdale there were police cars with their lights flashing in the parking lot every night. Should that have made me feel safer? How about when two undercover police officers showed up at my door to find out if I was the felon who lived in that apartment before I moved in. That was weird, especially when I had to convince them I wasn't the felon they were looking for. They said my perfect english was a clue that I wasn't the guy they were looking for. How do you think I slept at night thinking this felon was going to show up one night to recover the drugs or weapon he hid somewhere in the apartment?

[mcheiss]

Law enforcement agencies in NWA have a list of suspect apartment communities and seedier neighborhoods that are routinely patrolled to prevent crimes which is a good idea.

The Doubletree Apartments in Rogers is one of them.

[bobhazor]

new numbers from the census bureau show, from 2000 to 2005, centerton was the fastest growing town in arkansas with a 138% increase. Bentonville had the highest growth rate among cities with ten-thousand or more residents with a 48% increase to 29,538. Elkins was also in the top three.

the rest were Cabot, Maumelle, Bryant, Springdale, Siloam

Springs, Rogers, Conway, Fayetteville and Benton.

[RAK]

Well, preliminary numbers for Rogers are in. Nearly 48,500. Not bad, even if not the magic 50,000. Seems everyone of the main four went up around 9000 except for overachiever Springdale!

That's about 216,000 people just for the four locations.

[masons_dad1]

Well, preliminary numbers for Rogers are in. Nearly 48,500. Not bad, even if not the magic 50,000. Seems everyone of the main four went up around 9000 except for overachiever Springdale!

That's about 216,000 people just for the four locations.

Hopefully Rogers can pull in another 1,500 before the official US Census in 2010. I'd start planning on some incorporations pretty soon.