2010 urbanized area figures

[krazeeboi]

Here are SC's urbanized area figures from 2000:

1) Charleston--North Charleston: 423,410

2) Columbia: 420,537

3) Greenville: 302,194

4) Spartanburg: 145,058

5) Myrtle Beach: 122,984

6) Mauldin-Simpsonville: 77,831

7) Anderson: 70,436

8) Rock Hill: 70,007

9) Florence: 67,314

10) Sumter: 64,320

What are your predictions for the 2010 Census?

By the way, are there any GIS images or anything for the urbanized areas in 2000?

*Meant to put this in the SC forum. Can a moderator help me out here?*

[teshadoh]

You should have posted this on a day I was at work!

I might have something worthwhile to say on Tuesday, Monday is a holiday where I work

But Columbia & Greenville (especially with Mauldin) will post the biggest increases with incorporating nearby urban clusters into their respective urban area. Since we can assume Mauldin won't be around in 2010 - most likely Rock Hill will enjoy it's last decade as a solo Urbanized Area.

I'm not going to bother posting my projections - but just guessing at the ranking for 2010:

1) Columbia

2) Greenville:

3) Charleston--North Charleston:

4) Myrtle Beach:

5) Spartanburg:

6) Rock Hill:

7) Anderson:

8) Florence:

9) Sumter:

10) Hilton Head, Clemson, or Beaufort?

Census.gov does have pdf's of all urbanized areas - just search the site.

[krazeeboi]

It sucks that eventually Rock Hill will get sucked into Charlotte's UA. I'm actually surprised that Concord's UA was still independent in 2000. I expect that to change in 2010.

Greenville will most certainly add Mauldin-Simpsonville, so that will boost its figure quite a bit.

I'll dig around on census.gov and try to find something. I would specifically like to know how much of their counties the principal cities of the urbanized areas take up.

[The_sandlapper]

You should have posted this on a day I was at work!

I might have something worthwhile to say on Tuesday, Monday is a holiday where I work

But Columbia & Greenville (especially with Mauldin) will post the biggest increases with incorporating nearby urban clusters into their respective urban area. Since we can assume Mauldin won't be around in 2010 - most likely Rock Hill will enjoy it's last decade as a solo Urbanized Area.

I'm not going to bother posting my projections - but just guessing at the ranking for 2010:

1) Columbia

2) Greenville:

3) Charleston--North Charleston:

4) Myrtle Beach:

5) Spartanburg:

6) Rock Hill:

7) Anderson:

8) Florence:

9) Sumter:

10) Hilton Head, Clemson, or Beaufort?

Census.gov does have pdf's of all urbanized areas - just search the site.

Just out of curiosity what outlying areas do you predict to be added to Columbia's UA by 2010 (Camden, Lexington, Newberry, Sumter????).

[krazeeboi]

For reference, here are the 1990 figures:

1) Charleston: 393,956

2) Columbia: 328,349

3) Greenville: 248,173

4) Spartanburg: 104,801

5) Rock Hill: 58,757

6) Myrtle Beach: 58,384

7) Sumter: 57,632

8) Florence: 54,659

9) Anderson: 52,492

Wow, the '90's was really Columbia's decade in SC, wasn't it? The urbanized area added almost 100,000 people, which is pretty good for a mid-sized Southern city. Myrtle Beach more than doubled its UA.

For fun, I'll throw in Charlotte, Raleigh, and Atlanta:

Charlotte

1990: 455,597

2000: 758,927

Raleigh

1990: 305,925

2000: 541,527

Atlanta

1990: 2,157,806

2000: 3,499,840

[monsoon]

If Myrtle Beach maintains/ed its 1990's growth rate through the 2000's it will come close to passing Greenville to become the #3 urbanized area in the state. I would not be surprised if Georgetown and Conway will now be included given the continuous development down 501 and on Hwy 17 that did not exist in 2000. The difference in the last 5 years has been staggering. I also expect the urbanized area to stretch from Little River to Georgetown. That is about 50 miles.

I am not so sure about Rock Hill joing the Charlotte UA. It seems to me that once you pass the Tega Key/Ft Mill area near the NC/SC border, the amount of development drops off dramatically until you get to the Cherry Rd exit in Rockhill.

[krazeeboi]

I am not so sure about Rock Hill joing the Charlotte UA. It seems to me that once you pass the Tega Key/Ft Mill area near the NC/SC border, the amount of development drops off dramatically until you get to the Cherry Rd exit in Rockhill.

I think by the time the 2020 census rolls around, there's a good chance that the small stretch of relatively undeveloped land will be developed by that time, thus linking the Charlotte and Rock Hill UA's (or pretty darn close). We already see signs of this happening now, with Citi Financial and Baxter Village. The new hospital in Ft. Mill will probably be located somewhere along/close to that stretch as well, and that has the potential to spur even more development, thus narrowing the gaps.

[teshadoh]

sandlapper - definitely Lexington, but there are some other small urban clusters also. Camden is also a possibility...

I agree 2020 Rock Hill's UA will definitely be absorbed into Charlotte. Growth is very high in that York Co corner & Charlotte had already 'stolen' Ft Mill from Rock Hill's UA in 2000 (it was part of Rock Hill's UA in 1990). The UA definitions are already quite liberal & sprawling low dense areas are able to expand across wide areas. Which is why Ft Mill is part of Charlotte, though there are gaps between them both.

[monsoon]

Hmm, somehow we managed to jump from a discussion of what will happen in 2010 to 2020. By then, I predict that Charleston and Myrtle Beach will be the #1 & #2 urbanized areas in the state. There will be little growth in Greenville, Spartanburg and Columbia due to the constant loss of manufacturing jobs to overseas locations. And yes I agree that Rock Hill will disappear into Charlotte by then.

If the Bush administration manages to sell off the Francis Marion national forest to private developers, we might eventually see one huge urbanized area, albiet a very linear one, running from Charleston all the way on the coast to the NC border. Fortunately NC has a little better development restrictions there so hopefully the sprawl won't be as bad on the other side of the line.

[krazeeboi]

I disagree concerning Columbia's growth slowing due to manufacturing losses, as much of the losses the metro area has recently experienced is primarily due to state government downsizing. USC, Palmetto Health, and Fort Jackson constitute the other major players in the local economy, so any decrease in growth there won't be due to offshoring.

I also think that USC's research campus, as well as the International Center for Automotive Research in Greenville, would have established themselves by that time and cushioned any blows due to manufacturing losses.

[teshadoh]

I don't know how we got to discussing 2020, I only mentioned that date to suggest Rock Hill wouldn't merge into Charlotte's UA until then. Besides that, who knows but it would be expected that Charleston & Columbia would still be at the top, but Greenville & Spartanburg might combine by that point. It depends on how long each city retains their 'identity', as the Census Bureau loosely defines how neighboring Urbanized Areas are merged / kept seperate.

Another interesting question to post for 2010 would be what new Urbanized Areas will be started?

Beaufort most likely will be upgraded from an Urban Cluster (Beaufort & Port Royal). Hilton Head will likely also, due to growth in Blufton. The question mark would be if Clemson is merged into Greenville's UA, if not Clemson would also be a new UA. Otherwise, growth isn't happening enough for Greenwood, Orangeburg & Gafney to develop into UA's. Gafney may eventually be combined into Spartanburg over the coming decades anyways.

[The_sandlapper]

Hmm, somehow we managed to jump from a discussion of what will happen in 2010 to 2020. By then, I predict that Charleston and Myrtle Beach will be the #1 & #2 urbanized areas in the state. There will be little growth in Greenville, Spartanburg and Columbia due to the constant loss of manufacturing jobs to overseas locations. And yes I agree that Rock Hill will disappear into Charlotte by then.

If the Bush administration manages to sell off the Francis Marion national forest to private developers, we might eventually see one huge urbanized area, albiet a very linear one, running from Charleston all the way on the coast to the NC border. Fortunately NC has a little better development restrictions there so hopefully the sprawl won't be as bad on the other side of the line.

Yeah, Columbia has never been a heavy manufactoring town. State Govt., Education, & healthcare are pretty much the hat hangers there. I do believe consistant growth will be the case in the next 10 years with the development of venues like Innovista, and ICAR. Maybe not as fast as the coast but that area is one of the fastest growing in the country. The south as a whole has a ton of potential to grow. Cheap land an a very low cost of living when relatively compared with the rest of the country will ensure that trend I think.

[sonofaque86]

By 2010 Columbia may gain Camden with growth in the NE continuing into Kershaw County. Lexington may def be added....But Columbia isn't really a manufacturing center anyways so loss really won't affect the region.

[monsoon]

Keep in mind we are talking about urbanized area and not MSA or CSA size.

[GvilleSC]

Greenville will definitely not fall below third. There's no way when you add Mauldin-Simpsonville to the UA in addition to the occuring growth that any other place in SC could pass us.

I would predict the Greenville UA to be over 400,000.

For those of you who think Greenville isn't growing or isn't growing fast enough, you need to take a closer look. I forsee no slowdown before 2020, much less 2010.

[teshadoh]

^ Greenville should easily hit 450k, which is weird to think that was roughly the size of Charlotte in 1990. But those aren't that comparable as Charlotte had developed as an economic center for various other small cities in the 1980's. Still - the population center in my mind will always be around Greenville / Spartanburg, once those two urban areas combine - at that point you will have an UA of at least 750k to 1 million in a few decades.

[waccamatt]

Columbia: 537,000

Charleston 525,000

Greenville: 419,000

[GvilleSC]

Columbia: 537,000

Charleston 525,000

Greenville: 419,000

How do you justify these? Just curious how Columbia and Charleston will jump over 100,000+...

[sonofaque86]

How do you justify these? Just curious how Columbia and Charleston will jump over 100,000+...

Columbia jumped nearly 100k in the 90s...It's growing much faster now, so why not

[The_sandlapper]

I often think people don't think Columbia is growing fast. But Yeah in the 90"s it was the fastest grwoing large metro in the state, with only 13th ranked (nationally) Myrtle Beach, Rock Hill, & Hilton Head-Beaufort growing faster. And I believe your right Columbia is growing at a faster rate now than it was back then. So yeah why not?

[monsoon]

Columbia jumped nearly 100k in the 90s...It's growing much faster now, so why not

This is why.....

Change in Metro Employment 2001 - 2004

Metro, Jobs in 2001, Jobs in 2004, Change, Percentage

1. Myrtle Beach, 102.4, 116.5, 14,090, 13.75%
   
2. Florence, 66.1, 70.1, 4,000, 6.06%
   
3. Charleston, 255.9, 266.4, 10,510, 4.11%
   
4. Sumter, 42.3, 42.6, 230, 0.63%
   
5. Columbia, 311.7, 304.7, -6,950,-2.23%
   
6. Greenville, 488.8, 470.0, -29,840,-5.97%
   

[goodbye]

^ Greenville should easily hit 450k, which is weird to think that was roughly the size of Charlotte in 1990. But those aren't that comparable as Charlotte had developed as an economic center for various other small cities in the 1980's. Still - the population center in my mind will always be around Greenville / Spartanburg, once those two urban areas combine - at that point you will have an UA of at least 750k to 1 million in a few decades.

If we're talking sheer population numbers, the Upstate will continue to keep pace with the rest of the state, even though the other major centers of growth will continue to strengthen as well. You have to consider that the cities in the Upstate have lost numbers to the suburbs for the past couple of decades (latest estimate was 6 years ago), while the suburbs have steadily exploded over that same period of time. With the renaissance of downtown and the city as the true urban core (heart) of the region, it cannot be denied that Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson (the Upstate) will continue to remain equally as powerful, if not continue to retain its status as the top economic powerhouse in the state of South Carolina.

Another regional factor is the growth of Asheville just north of Greenville and Spartanburg. The alliance between Greenville and Asheville has been growing recently, and this will continue to be the case throughout the progression of time. It is legitimate to imagine a possible megalopolis that includes Greenville, Spartanburg, Anderson, Clemson, Hendersonville, and Asheville. It is not as far off as some of you would want to say it is.

[waccamatt]

This is why.....

Change in Metro Employment 2001 - 2004

Metro, Jobs in 2001, Jobs in 2004, Change, Percentage

1. Myrtle Beach, 102.4, 116.5, 14,090, 13.75%
   
2. Florence, 66.1, 70.1, 4,000, 6.06%
   
3. Charleston, 255.9, 266.4, 10,510, 4.11%
   
4. Sumter, 42.3, 42.6, 230, 0.63%
   
5. Columbia, 311.7, 304.7, -6,950,-2.23%
   
6. Greenville, 488.8, 470.0, -29,840,-5.97%
   

I've seen those figures before, but I find them dubious for both Columbia and Greenville. If the numbers employed have decreased so significantly, how have the populations increased so precipitously?

How do you justify these? Just curious how Columbia and Charleston will jump over 100,000+...

Because both cities are seeing significant growth. I know anyone that lives in Columbia will tell you that the growth in the last five years is as great or greater than it was in the previous 10 years.

[GvilleSC]

I've seen those figures before, but I find them dubious for both Columbia and Greenville. If the numbers employed have decreased so significantly, how have the populations increased so precipitously?

I question these numbers too. I mean how can Greenville County grow in sheer number more than any other in the state and keep such a low unemployment, yet it has lost so many jobs??? I just don't see Columbia and Greenville in this situation.

[goodbye]

I too find these numbers somewhat amusing, but not too serious. I can't speak for Columbia (I'm sure someone else can do so), but I do know that Greenville County has the 2nd lowest unemployment rate in the entire state despite having the highest population. On top of that, a recent survey indicated that Greenville County will have a job growth rate well above both the state and national averages in 2006 (this year). This certainly puts things into perspective.