Jump to content

2010 urbanized area figures


krazeeboi

Recommended Posts


  • Replies 130
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Some important things to remember when posting these rates. The UA for Chas also now includes Summerville in Dorchester County, which had a significant growth rate.

Also, what everybody seems to forget about Chas when comparing these rates in the 90s is that Chas experienced several major problems. One was the hurricane, and the other, which is far more important, was the closure of the naval base. This was a huge loss to the Chas economy...around 18,000 jobs. YET, Chas still had a strong growth rate!

I didn't know that Charleston had already absorbed Summerville, but it makes perfect sense. I wonder if the sprawl will ever reach St. George?

But I think that Charleston bounced back relatively quickly from the base closure. Hugo wasn't small potatoes either. Charleston is certainly a resilient city; it's been around a long time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Myrtle Beach stands a good chance to pass Spartanburg to become the 4th largest SC UA. Perhaps in 30 to 40 years, Myrtle Beach will really challenge the big three.

I think it's almost certain that Myrtle Beach will surpass Spartanburg in the 2010 census--which means that it could also become SC's 4th largest metro area, possibly picking up a NC county. Speaking of which, besides construction, what's really driving the growth in Horry County?

For the big three, Charleston could very pass Columbia. As someone else pointed out, Charleston's figures from the 1990s were held back by the base closing, which really was quite a large blow in the short term. Greenville will remain behind Columbia and Charleston unless the various UA and urban cluster nodes of the Upstate start to connect. However, I would say that such a sprawling and "stringy" streaming of cities and towns is not quite the same as a fairly focused urban mass like Charlotte. I do not consider a long, narrow extended arm like the Aiken projection coming out of Augusta's UA to really be fully a part of the central core of the UA.

Well Charleston's UA is already larger than Columbia's, although only slightly so (according to 2000 figures). I think that the Big Three will remain in their same positions. Here are my estimates:

1) Charleston: 485,000

2) Columbia: 480,000

3) Greenville: 460,000

4) Myrtle Beach: 200,000

5) Spartanburg: 185,000

6) Rock Hill: 93,000

7) Anderson: 83,000

8) Florence: 76,000

9) Sumter: 71,000

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, MB will not be the 4th largest Metro. Spartanburg still has more people in that category, and will retain it for some time.

The growth in MB is fueled by its tourist economy, and the fact that people want to live and retire at the beach. People come there from everywhere and they think it will be a great palce to retire. I'd wager than most of its growth is not by the professional age people, but by the extremely wealthy. The service economy is pulling in a lot of low wage employees to serve everyone.

There was an article in the Sun not long ago that said that MB was becoming too expensive for its primary employees in the service sector.

MB may become the next largest city (UA) in terms of population, but I take issue with the way that it and its economy is structured. A city that forces its workers to live outside of it is not necessarily in an ideal situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the Myrtle Beach metro surpassing Spartanburg's by 2010 is a bit of a stretch, but at the rate Horry's been growing lately, I expect it to happen in the near future (within 20 years).

Myrtle Beach needs a more diversified economy in order to truly become a metropolis. Construction and tourism aren't sectors that a city should capitalize on in order to build a strong local economy. We'll see how long the trend continues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem with ever expanding urbanized areas is that without considering population density, they don't really give a barameter of what is going on in the area. A growing UA, but little change in population density is a good indication that really bad sprawl is taking place. If the UA of these cities are expanding to include every backwash, pig path, and cross roads, I would bet my money that most of it is being connected by big box retail, and low density cul de sac development.

If you really want to see how well these areas are doing, then you have to look at the UA vs MSA size. If the UA is expanding slowly while the MSA is growing fast, you have healthy growth. On the otherhand, the UA is growing just as fast or close to the MSA then you have the classic symptions of bad sprawl and with the exception of Myrtle Beach due to it being an island, I suspect that most of it in SC fits this second category. Considering that most of the discussion here has been, "Oh, so and so town will be absorbed in the next census", that is probably a good guess.

What would be interesting would be to see the change in population density of the UAs over the last 15 years. I think that will tell a much more interesting, yet sad, tale of what is going on in SC's major cities.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

spartan - but lower income workers can live in Conway, which is part of Myrtle Beach's growing UA. Also, coastal areas such as Horry Co will boom with the coming onset of retirees. This will be the case with Beaufort & Hilton Head which will likely expand beyond the island into Blufton.

I had made some maps yesterday, but I felt were too large to post. Here are some links: http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/B..._HiltonHead.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/Charleston.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/Clemson.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/Columbia.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/Florence.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/G...in_Anderson.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/MyrtleBeach.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/RockHill.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/Spartanburg.jpg

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/Sumter.jpg

Legend:

http://www.oliviadrab.com/bradblog/SC_UA/legend.jpg

Urbansoutherner - you are of course correct, 'Urbanized Area' doesn't neccessarily mean an actual urban area. But the fact that the definition is so 'loose' that census blocks can be selected by 'piggy backing' & the abstract determination if a city has enough 'identity' to be merged into another one - makes these number games so entertaining :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the Myrtle Beach metro surpassing Spartanburg's by 2010 is a bit of a stretch, but at the rate Horry's been growing lately, I expect it to happen in the near future (within 20 years).

Myrtle Beach needs a more diversified economy in order to truly become a metropolis. Construction and tourism aren't sectors that a city should capitalize on in order to build a strong local economy. We'll see how long the trend continues.

MB may not pass Spartanburg by 2010, but I think it could. Just look at the numbers that are available:

2000 Census:

Spartanburg UA has 145,000

Myrtle Beach UA has 122,000

That is a gap of 23,000 more or less.

2000-2004 County Population (from the U.S. Census Bureau):

Spartanburg County went from 253,000 to 264,000

Horry County (Myrtle Beach) went from 196,000 to 217,000

That means Spartanburg's county gained around 11,000 and Myrtle Beach's county gained around 21,000. In other words, Myrtle Beach's county gained 10,000 more people than Spartanburg's county in those four years. If you figure that means that Horry County is gaining an average of 2,500 people more than Spartanburg County is gaining per year and extend that over an entire decade, then Horry County should have added 25,000 more residents than Spartanburg County between 2000 and 2010.

Now, we are looking at county growth since UA populations are not estimated annually and the boundaries are in theory constantly changing unlike counties. But I think it is highly unlikely that many of the 25,000 new residents in Horry County are living outside what will be within the Myrtle Beach UA in 2010. I mean, virtually everything along the beach in the county and inland to Conway was in the UA as of 1990. The only other areas in the county are basically rural. I do not think the 25,000 new residents are moving to Loris or Aynor.

So, I think it is not as far fetched as it may seem that Myrtle Beach could equal or surpass Spartanburg in terms of their UA populations as soon as 2010. Also as was pointed out before by other postings, the Myrtle Beach UA could pull in nearby beach towns in NC to the north or even Pawley's Island and Georgetown to the south at some point in the not so distant future as well.

Now, I realize that my number crunching was rough and crude, but it is about the best you can do since the Census Bureau does not redefine boundaries and reestimate populations for UAs every year.

I also agree absolutely with Krazeeboi and Spartan that MB is not creating a lot of great jobs for young people. But that is to some degree beside the point for the current conversation since population is what matters in terms of these UA numbers--not jobs. There are huge swaths of a place called Florida which no newly minted college grad would dream of moving too, but these swaths are large and fast growing thanks to retirees. MB as far as I know has a economy mostly built on tourism and retirees, but those forces are enough to propel significant population growth (again, take much of Florida as the ultimate example). Our society is aging and retirement destinations could see dramatic population growth in the years to come. These folks do not have to move where there are good jobs. They can focus on other amenities like one of the best strips of beach in the eastern US (especially if Florida is getting to crowded for you).

I wonder if Orlando is a good model of what might ultimately happen with MB (way down the road of course). The place really boomed first because of a massive tourism industry and retirees, but it has in more recent years diversified more economically.

I do not mean to put down any other SC cities. I would move to Columbia, Charleston, Greenville, or Spartanburg in a minute before I would move to Myrtle Beach. I am not a fan of the place. But I do think that Myrtle Beach is the real boomtown in SC and its potential for population growth is rather large and undeniable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^agreed, I lived there for a year and it was great at first but then I just got sick of the place and loned to be in a "real city". Myrtle was a great place to visit but with the transient population things just got to be too much of a hassal. I love to party but even I was partied out after living there for a year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What about not having an expressway? Doesn't that limit Myrtle Beach's growth potential?

As I understand it, there are several options being proposed to remedy that situation by extended an interstate into the city. I think the lack of interstate would eventually hinder tourists more than retirees. At any rate, I think interstates are more critical in attracting industry and business operations, and again, I do not sense that those areas are where Myrtle Beach is really growing. And once the region gets big enough, the state WILL find a way to get an interstate extended to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^agreed, I lived there for a year and it was great at first but then I just got sick of the place and loned to be in a "real city". Myrtle was a great place to visit but with the transient population things just got to be too much of a hassal. I love to party but even I was partied out after living there for a year.

I agree with you. But after visiting some areas of Florida where retirees are moving in droves, that atmosphere apparently works for some people.

They said by 2040 the US will actually start losing population because of the baby boomers...That's gonna be something else

Then it becomes important to see if Myrtle Beach can start building a more diversified economy to pick up any slack. But at any rate, that is quite a ways off in the future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

spartan - but lower income workers can live in Conway, which is part of Myrtle Beach's growing UA. Also, coastal areas such as Horry Co will boom with the coming onset of retirees. This will be the case with Beaufort & Hilton Head which will likely expand beyond the island into Blufton.

Yes, I know. My comment was perhaps a bit off topic. I take issue wiht how things work down there economically when compared to other cities in this state. Its kind of like comparing apples to oranges.

MB may not pass Spartanburg by 2010, but I think it could. Just look at the numbers that are available:

2000 Census:

Spartanburg UA has 145,000

Myrtle Beach UA has 122,000

That is a gap of 23,000 more or less.

2000-2004 County Population (from the U.S. Census Bureau):

Spartanburg County went from 253,000 to 264,000

Horry County (Myrtle Beach) went from 196,000 to 217,000

That means Spartanburg's county gained around 11,000 and Myrtle Beach's county gained around 21,000. In other words, Myrtle Beach's county gained 10,000 more people than Spartanburg's county in those four years. If you figure that means that Horry County is gaining an average of 2,500 people more than Spartanburg County is gaining per year and extend that over an entire decade, then Horry County should have added 25,000 more residents than Spartanburg County between 2000 and 2010.

Now, we are looking at county growth since UA populations are not estimated annually and the boundaries are in theory constantly changing unlike counties. But I think it is highly unlikely that many of the 25,000 new residents in Horry County are living outside what will be within the Myrtle Beach UA in 2010. I mean, virtually everything along the beach in the county and inland to Conway was in the UA as of 1990. The only other areas in the county are basically rural. I do not think the 25,000 new residents are moving to Loris or Aynor.

So, I think it is not as far fetched as it may seem that Myrtle Beach could equal or surpass Spartanburg in terms of their UA populations as soon as 2010. Also as was pointed out before by other postings, the Myrtle Beach UA could pull in nearby beach towns in NC to the north or even Pawley's Island and Georgetown to the south at some point in the not so distant future as well.

Now, I realize that my number crunching was rough and crude, but it is about the best you can do since the Census Bureau does not redefine boundaries and reestimate populations for UAs every year.

That is what I like to call 'fuzzy math' :) You assume constant growth trends, when in reality they fluctuate from year to year. The population estimates by the State indicate that Horry County won't surpass Spartanburg County until 2030. I don't think that Myrtle Beach's UA will surpass Spartanburg's personally. I do agree that they will be very close, regardless which is larger.

I think a good Model for Myrtle Beach's future is something like Daytona, minus the racing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I also agree absolutely with Krazeeboi and Spartan that MB is not creating a lot of great jobs for young people. But that is to some degree beside the point for the current conversation since population is what matters in terms of these UA numbers--not jobs.

Actually, there are probably more jobs for people under 30 in Myrtle Beach, than anywhere else in the state. Remember in the last 4 years, Myrtle Beach added more jobs to its economy than any other city in the Carolinas with the exception of Charlotte, and Charlotte was not that far ahead. You don't have the economy that Myrtle Beach does by only employing the middle aged.

Young people headed to SC for jobs are not going to Columbia or the Upstate, they are headed to the coast, Myrtle Beach included. With billions of dollars flowing through Myrtle Beach the opportunities there, especially for someone wanting to start a business, are better there than anywhere else in SC. IMO. There are also big demands for construction jobs, they are crying for people with medical degrees (nurses to doctors), professional chefs, bankers, insurance people, etc etc. Even people with no education can do well in Myrtle Beach because there simply isn't enough labor to satisfy the demand. Can you imagine how many maids it takes to service 50,000 hotel rooms/day? As a result you have maids coming in on buses from as far away as Darlington, (90 miles) because the wages for them are much higher than anything they can get in that county.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Young people headed to SC for jobs are not going to Columbia or the Upstate, they are headed to the coast, Myrtle Beach included. With billions of dollars flowing through Myrtle Beach the opportunities there, especially for someone wanting to start a business, are better there than anywhere else in SC. IMO.

I would have to say that it depends entirely on what type of business someone wants to start. You won't find most of the high tech entrepreneurs heading to Myrtle Beach just to start their businesses.

That being said, I agree with you that the Coastal regions are currently experiencing an influx of growth unlike the rest of the state. But until the corporations start to locate in the Myrtle Beach area, I wouldn't plan on setting up shop there yet. The higher incomes will allow more technology-based small businesses to find long-term success. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can you give some examples of high tech entrepreneurs elsewhere in SC? My guess there are not many people under 30 that would fit into a category like this as it is very difficult to make money in high tech.

However as I mentioned above, for the vast number of people who do make money in business, Myrtle Beach offers a huge opportunity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you suggesting SC doesn't have young high-tech entrepreneurs other than in Myrtle Beach? I seriously disagree with that statement. I know of many in Greenville, and I would most likely be able to find the same for other areas in the Upstate and Midlands. I'll try to get a list of some of them locally for you. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even people with no education can do well in Myrtle Beach because there simply isn't enough labor to satisfy the demand. Can you imagine how many maids it takes to service 50,000 hotel rooms/day? As a result you have maids coming in on buses from as far away as Darlington, (90 miles) because the wages for them are much higher than anything they can get in that county.

I think that statement says it all! There are sevearl jobs for anyone under or over 21 at the coast (ie MB) but the majority are low wage service jobs that can be filled by practically anyone with little too no education. That is not what places like Columbia, Greenville, and Charleston are trying to attract. For lack of a better example they are trying to attract the same crowd that made places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Raliegh, & Austin succesful. Not the same type of demographic that made places like Vegas, Orlando, & Atlantic City and succesful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, there are probably more jobs for people under 30 in Myrtle Beach, than anywhere else in the state. Remember in the last 4 years, Myrtle Beach added more jobs to its economy than any other city in the Carolinas with the exception of Charlotte, and Charlotte was not that far ahead. You don't have the economy that Myrtle Beach does by only employing the middle aged.

Young people headed to SC for jobs are not going to Columbia or the Upstate, they are headed to the coast, Myrtle Beach included. With billions of dollars flowing through Myrtle Beach the opportunities there, especially for someone wanting to start a business, are better there than anywhere else in SC. IMO. There are also big demands for construction jobs, they are crying for people with medical degrees (nurses to doctors), professional chefs, bankers, insurance people, etc etc. Even people with no education can do well in Myrtle Beach because there simply isn't enough labor to satisfy the demand. Can you imagine how many maids it takes to service 50,000 hotel rooms/day? As a result you have maids coming in on buses from as far away as Darlington, (90 miles) because the wages for them are much higher than anything they can get in that county.

There is some truth to that, but not entirely. Yeah you have banks, but the majority of employers are tellers and low level employees. Not that many mid-level folks. Insurance is the same way. I can go on. The doctors & nurses point is by far the most valid.. but how many of those can be accomodated? McLeod in Florence has a significant regional presence too.

Nobody is saying that middle aged folks cant get jobs. Because they can. Or that jobs are unavailable, because that is obviously false. But its that professional class that is missing. Low wage, low-level service or construction jobs abound, and they are by far the major source of employment in that area. Lets not forget that many of those employees are seasonal employees that are bussed in, and I'd argue its not because the wages are higher in MB, but because there are no jobs in Darlington. However, I will say kusdos to MB for being able to hire more of them permanently.

Myrtle Beach is great if you are in real estate or development though. No question about that :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is some truth to that, but not entirely. Yeah you have banks, but the majority of employers are tellers and low level employees. Not that many mid-level folks. Insurance is the same way.

I am not so sure about that. Two of SC's largest home grown banks are HQ'd there, and Wachovia & BofA have significant operations in Myrtle Beach (based on the size of their office buildings) due to the amount of money that flows into the area. There is a huge amount of money needed to build multi-million dollar condo developments, and related work, and my guess is that this isn't being decided and handled by tellers and low level employees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.