Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, St. Louis, Kansas City and...Rogers?

[KJW]

Interesting article in yesterday's paper.

They had a side by side comparison of the people coming into the markets. I didn't realize that Jos. A. Bank was coming to NWA.

Interesting article in yesterday's paper.

They had a side by side comparison of the people coming into the markets. I didn't realize that Jos. A. Bank was coming to NWA.

MODERATORS, could you please move this...I meant to place it in the Northwest Arkansas board.

BTW, here's the Pleasant Crossing web site...hadn't seen it yet.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Interesting article in yesterday's paper.

They had a side by side comparison of the people coming into the markets. I didn't realize that Jos. A. Bank was coming to NWA.

MODERATORS, could you please move this...I meant to place it in the Northwest Arkansas board.

BTW, here's the Pleasant Crossing web site...hadn't seen it yet.

I think those comparisons to the larger metro areas as shopping destinations is quite blustery on the part of the developers.

Yes, NWA is getting more and more retailers that are only found in larger metro areas. Its likely that NWA will soon see some retailers that may not even be represented in LR.

I haven't seen any announced retailer for Rogers that isn't already represented at least ten or more times in DFW in various shopping malls.

NWA will become, or to be more accurate, has already become a regional shopping destination. It may eventually pull people from a quite larger area.

For it to truly compete directly with Dallas, Houston, or Las Vegas as a premier shopping destination is going to require an incredibly HUGE infusion of wealth and population, much bigger than its currently seeing and is projected for the foreseeable future.

When there are Gucci, Prada, Armani stores et al, heck, even an Urban Outfitters, I'll agree that the area has become a special regional shopping destination.

The growth in retail is phenomenal and quite rapid, but lets keep it in proper perspective.

[Mith242]

I will agree NWA is undersrved at the moment although I think that the retailers will catch up eventually. But I don't think NWA is going to be competing with some of those cities mentioned in a very long time. It may be possible one day but I'm really curious to see if the population growth is going to slow down at some point. I just have a hard time seeing infrastructure catching up let alone keeping pace with the growth.

[masons_dad1]

Is Northwest Arkansas seeing all these new retail options because of our tremendous growth or is it because Northwest Arkansas has been underserved by the retail market for many years even before all this growth? My understanding is that it's not because we're getting bigger and better, but because this area has always lacked a competitive retail market. So, it's safe to say we're not even challenging retail markets in any of the major cities and in fact may not even be challenging retail markets in many much smaller retail markets.

[mcheiss]

I think it's a little bit of underdevelopment and a bit of growth. We surely wouldn't see a Million Square foot mall being constructed in Benton County 10 years ago, but now we actuely have two.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Is Northwest Arkansas seeing all these new retail options because of our tremendous growth or is it because Northwest Arkansas has been underserved by the retail market for many years even before all this growth? My understanding is that it's not because we're getting bigger and better, but because this area has always lacked a competitive retail market. So, it's safe to say we're not even challenging retail markets in any of the major cities and in fact may not even be challenging retail markets in many much smaller retail markets.

Retail traditionally lags behind residential and there is a lot of catching up to do with the recent residential boom in NWA.

Thats only part of the equation.

As a small, largely rural state, Arkansas is low on the list of states and markets to be built-out by many companies. I know my retailers would target regions and more specifically states with a priority list. Texas was high, as was California. After that, expansion generally followed population centers and their outlying areas. I have developed a few deals in NWA for retailers and compared to most other markets across the U.S., NWA has not had the overall population or density that is found in so many other markets around the country. It really doesn't attract a priority status on its own when compared to many other larger metros, AND it is in a low priority state for expansion. Thus, it is a "double-whammy" lower priority.

For example, Starbucks is just starting to enter the market in Arkansas, wheras in Texas, many markets and towns smaller than Fayetteville and the NWA metro in general have had Starbucks for a few years. NWA has had larger numbers, but Arkansas has been placed lower on the priority list of markets in which to expand.

For one company I worked with, we had a targeted 3-mile population density of 50k or greater. In cities like Houston and Dallas, you can find areas with 300k people within a three mile ring of a given intersection or address. EVERYWHERE I pinpointed in Fayetteville, from the east side, to the north, to the university area had 3-mile population densities in the 30-37k range. That is pretty low on the scale for most major brands, yet we looked at the trend in population upward, the larger service area, and decided to locate anyway.

Usually this is much more true for younger brands or smaller companies. They choose the lowest risk markets first in order to get a foothold and expand their presence nationwide. States like Arkansas are, unfortuantely, in-fill that only completes the regional and national map for many comapanies.

If it seems like Arkansas is the last to get a lot of things, its probably for the reasons stated above. I think thats slowly changing, however.

[Mith242]

Yeah I've certainly noticed Arkansas being on the bottom of the list for quite a while now. It's great to see Joplin, a metro a lot smaller than use, not too far away from us get a lot of stuff long before we do. But as you said Arkansas isn't too high up on the list yet and our low density probably isn't helping either. I'm still hoping we can eventually get our density up. I'm not saying we have to try to get it to levels like a big city or anything. But there are certainly some nice smaller cities that are very nice areas that have some nice densities compared to NWA. Maybe something like Savannah or some areas of Charleston.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Yeah I've certainly noticed Arkansas being on the bottom of the list for quite a while now. It's great to see Joplin, a metro a lot smaller than use, not too far away from us get a lot of stuff long before we do. But as you said Arkansas isn't too high up on the list yet and our low density probably isn't helping either. I'm still hoping we can eventually get our density up. I'm not saying we have to try to get it to levels like a big city or anything. But there are certainly some nice smaller cities that are very nice areas that have some nice densities compared to NWA. Maybe something like Savannah or some areas of Charleston.

Starbucks is overrated.

Of course, this comes from a former Starbucks addict.

In any case, I'm the type of person much more inclined to patronize locally owned start-ups as opposed to national chains.

A friend of mine who I went to school with at UA who now lives in Chicago lamented to me the other day that on his last trip to Fayetteville it seemed like it was "becoming just like anywhere else in the country." His point being that it was the local, groovy, out of bounds joints that gave Fayetteville much of its personality and uniqueness and that the proliferation of THE CHAINS is altering the character of the city we used to know.

I'm glad we have the Small Business Development Center at UA to spur local entrepreneurship. I just wish more of the development focus was on locally owned joints as opposed to the corporationy corporations.

That being said, I have directly contributed to bringing a chain or two to NWA............

I can't wait to say goodbye to the corporate machinery. I will sleep much better at night.

[Mith242]

Starbucks is overrated.

Of course, this comes from a former Starbucks addict.

In any case, I'm the type of person much more inclined to patronize locally owned start-ups as opposed to national chains.

A friend of mine who I went to school with at UA who now lives in Chicago lamented to me the other day that on his last trip to Fayetteville it seemed like it was "becoming just like anywhere else in the country." His point being that it was the local, groovy, out of bounds joints that gave Fayetteville much of its personality and uniqueness and that the proliferation of THE CHAINS is altering the character of the city we used to know.

I'm glad we have the Small Business Development Center at UA to spur local entrepreneurship. I just wish more of the development focus was on locally owned joints as opposed to the corporationy corporations.

That being said, I have directly contributed to bringing a chain or two to NWA............

I can't wait to say goodbye to the corporate machinery. I will sleep much better at night.

At least you are honest about it. I do agree with you. I don't have any problems with a chain like Starbucks coming in but I don't expect to frequent them very often. I think I'd just assume sticking to the local places. As I mentioned before I think one thing really fueling the chains in this are will be all the new people coming in. People who won't know what local places are great places to check out. Many of them will stick to chains because they already know what to expect. I'm just hoping that as people live here longer they'll come to know the great local places and eventually start giving them more of a chance.

[itk]

Yeah I've certainly noticed Arkansas being on the bottom of the list for quite a while now. It's great to see Joplin, a metro a lot smaller than use, not too far away from us get a lot of stuff long before we do. But as you said Arkansas isn't too high up on the list yet and our low density probably isn't helping either. I'm still hoping we can eventually get our density up. I'm not saying we have to try to get it to levels like a big city or anything. But there are certainly some nice smaller cities that are very nice areas that have some nice densities compared to NWA. Maybe something like Savannah or some areas of Charleston.

Joplin get's a lot of stuff long before NWA does? We are talking about Joplin, MO, right? I think they got a Garfield's cafeteria at their mall before NWA mall got one.... oh, and the Shake's (Shakey's) in Joplin was there first before the one in Fayetteville opened. Those durn sophisticated Joplinites. At least we got the first Wal-Mart way back when.

[Mith242]

Joplin get's a lot of stuff long before NWA does? We are talking about Joplin, MO, right? I think they got a Garfield's cafeteria at their mall before NWA mall got one.... oh, and the Shake's (Shakey's) in Joplin was there first before the one in Fayetteville opened. Those durn sophisticated Joplinites. At least we got the first Wal-Mart way back when.

They also had Olive Garden long before we had one, they had Starbucks long before we did. I can't say I think we need to have all the chains here per se. But it is odd that Joplin seems to get quite a few things before NWA has considering the size of the city and it's metro compared to the NWA metro.

[tim2462]

When local coffee shops are frequented, they gain more profit, build more stores...and yes, you guessed it, they become a chain. Sometimes they will even go nationwide. Starbucks was just a local coffee shop not too long ago. They were just good at what they did. Does this sound familiar? Of course. People give wal-mart the same hell...they're driving the local stores out. I say BS. They're bringing in competition...you compete, or you go out of business. Just because a business is "local" doesn't mean it's better and doesn't mean you should have to pay outrageous amounts for something you can get for a better price elsewhere.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

When local coffee shops are frequented, they gain more profit, build more stores...and yes, you guessed it, they become a chain. Sometimes they will even go nationwide. Starbucks was just a local coffee shop not too long ago. They were just good at what they did. Does this sound familiar? Of course. People give wal-mart the same hell...they're driving the local stores out. I say BS. They're bringing in competition...you compete, or you go out of business. Just because a business is "local" doesn't mean it's better and doesn't mean you should have to pay outrageous amounts for something you can get for a better price elsewhere.

No, just because a business is local doesn't mean its better.

People go to chains for familiarity and a standardized experience. Thats the basic tenet of franchising.

I prefer local businesses, the ones that do offer good service, over their nationwide counterparts because of the uniqueness of the experience and because I know the majority of the revenue will stay in the local economy.

I'll give you an example. Where I currently live, I could go to any number of places to get a haircut. I live within five miles of virtually every regional or national chain of salons or haircutters. I go to the local barbershop on the corner. The haircut is the same, but the experience is much more personal. At Supercuts or SportClips, I get a person who is following a manual and who has gone through a franchise training program. At the local barber shop, I get a business owner, a personality, and a mounted plaque of Texas with the history of barbed wire on the wall, discussion about the local high school sports teams, and better than anything else, I know I am directly supporting a local entrepreneur.

Local doesn't MEAN better. To me, it feels better.

And most importantly and most relevant to this discussion, supporting local business helps maintain a vibrant unique city. Imagine a Dickson Street with a Domino's instead of U.S. Pizza, a Starbucks in place of CG, a TGIFridays in place of Hog Haus and an On The Border in place of Jose's.

I live in a place as bland currently and I can't wait to get back to Fayetteville.

[itk]

They also had Olive Garden long before we had one, they had Starbucks long before we did. I can't say I think we need to have all the chains here per se. But it is odd that Joplin seems to get quite a few things before NWA has considering the size of the city and it's metro compared to the NWA metro.

Oh yeah, I forgot about the Olive Garden. I remember waiting what seemed like forever for an Olive Garden to open in NWA ever since I discovered it in other towns as a kid.

[KJW]

Oh yeah, I forgot about the Olive Garden. I remember waiting what seemed like forever for an Olive Garden to open in NWA ever since I discovered it in other towns as a kid.

Mith,

I think the answer is "We're a major metro area who doesn't yet UNDERSTAND that we are one." Same with most of the world. We are turning old ways of doing things upside down in NWA.

Look, for example, at media markets...now I think they're only using the Nielsen DMA (designated market area...dividing up America into geographic areas based upon where they're getting most of their news from).

The Joplin/Pittsburg DMA, for instance (last I heard), has a DMA that stretches from Vernon County, Missouri (Nevada, just about halfway to Kansas City) to McDonald County, Missouri (for now, if they don't eventually add it to NWA/Fort Smith), then to Ottawa County, OK (Miami, practically a suburb, and the county does almost butt up against the Joplin city limits). Then there's a huge chunk of southeastern Kansas as well that gets its news from (and subsequently trades with) Joplin.

I've got a funny story for you...after college and moving to Arkansas, I worked at KFSM Channel 5 in the mid-80s. The big thing TV affiliates in Fort Smith were working to do circa 1986 was to bring Benton County into the Fort Smith/Fayetteville DMA. At the time, it was in the Joplin DMA (and obviously, we here in Benton County still get all the Joplin stations. Cracks me up that in Washington County the cable gets SPRINGFIELD (KOLR-TV) TV...). Boy, what Joplin wouldn't do to have Benton County now...I think it's possible they could eventually lose McDonald County.

But that further underscores what's going on here. Back in the 80s and 90s (even today) this has been the Fort Smith/Fayetteville DMA. Remember the stink when KNWA changed its focus a couple years ago away from Fort Smith. And counties which border Benton, and are in large or partial part beginning to become bedroom communities for NWA (McDonald, MO, already mentioned, in the Joplin DMA, classified by Rand McNally in the Kansas City major trading area (MTA); Carroll, AR and Barry, MO, in the Springfield, MO DMA, Barry classified in the St. Louis MTA; Delaware, OK, in the Tulsa DMA and MTA) are currently in other markets but could someday face eventual pressure into the NWA/Fort Smith DMA.

Thanks to a semi-unique geographic location, population inflow, growth, and changing trade areas we're seeing things happen here that America has rarely if ever seen elsewhere...

[johnnydr87]

very interesting...

[Mith242]

When local coffee shops are frequented, they gain more profit, build more stores...and yes, you guessed it, they become a chain. Sometimes they will even go nationwide. Starbucks was just a local coffee shop not too long ago. They were just good at what they did. Does this sound familiar? Of course. People give wal-mart the same hell...they're driving the local stores out. I say BS. They're bringing in competition...you compete, or you go out of business. Just because a business is "local" doesn't mean it's better and doesn't mean you should have to pay outrageous amounts for something you can get for a better price elsewhere.

You are certainly right in that local places shouldn't because they're local and not good. A bad local restaurant or whatever obviously isn't do us a lot of good. Although it is a shame to see good places go belly up because they can't compete with a major chain. I also did notice the irony of this discussion living in Wal-mart country. But I do still agree with DickSonstreetDFW in that it's nice to see local places and not just have the area seem like it could be any other city or metro in the country with all the chains. Although I don't mean to make it sounds like they aren't some pretty good chains out there.

[Mith242]

Mith,

I think the answer is "We're a major metro area who doesn't yet UNDERSTAND that we are one." Same with most of the world. We are turning old ways of doing things upside down in NWA.

Look, for example, at media markets...now I think they're only using the Nielsen DMA (designated market area...dividing up America into geographic areas based upon where they're getting most of their news from).

The Joplin/Pittsburg DMA, for instance (last I heard), has a DMA that stretches from Vernon County, Missouri (Nevada, just about halfway to Kansas City) to McDonald County, Missouri (for now, if they don't eventually add it to NWA/Fort Smith), then to Ottawa County, OK (Miami, practically a suburb, and the county does almost butt up against the Joplin city limits). Then there's a huge chunk of southeastern Kansas as well that gets its news from (and subsequently trades with) Joplin.

I've got a funny story for you...after college and moving to Arkansas, I worked at KFSM Channel 5 in the mid-80s. The big thing TV affiliates in Fort Smith were working to do circa 1986 was to bring Benton County into the Fort Smith/Fayetteville DMA. At the time, it was in the Joplin DMA (and obviously, we here in Benton County still get all the Joplin stations. Cracks me up that in Washington County the cable gets SPRINGFIELD (KOLR-TV) TV...). Boy, what Joplin wouldn't do to have Benton County now...I think it's possible they could eventually lose McDonald County.

But that further underscores what's going on here. Back in the 80s and 90s (even today) this has been the Fort Smith/Fayetteville DMA. Remember the stink when KNWA changed its focus a couple years ago away from Fort Smith. And counties which border Benton, and are in large or partial part beginning to become bedroom communities for NWA (McDonald, MO, already mentioned, in the Joplin DMA, classified by Rand McNally in the Kansas City major trading area (MTA); Carroll, AR and Barry, MO, in the Springfield, MO DMA, Barry classified in the St. Louis MTA; Delaware, OK, in the Tulsa DMA and MTA) are currently in other markets but could someday face eventual pressure into the NWA/Fort Smith DMA.

Thanks to a semi-unique geographic location, population inflow, growth, and changing trade areas we're seeing things happen here that America has rarely if ever seen elsewhere...

Was there a big stink about KNWA? I guess I didn't hear about that. To be honest I think another station needs to make more of a move to the NWA area. Nothing against the Ft Smith area but most of the population is here in NWA and it just seems odd to have most of the news come from another smaller metro instead of where the majority of the people are. Just my personal opinion. I never watched NBC local news, even before they took the news off because of that lawsuit. But I watch KNWA now because they are located here in NWA and mainly just cover NWA news. As NWA grows we will become more of a regional draw and such but I guess it takes time when other cities are already established as regional centers and such.

[KJW]

Was there a big stink about KNWA? I guess I didn't hear about that. To be honest I think another station needs to make more of a move to the NWA area. Nothing against the Ft Smith area but most of the population is here in NWA and it just seems odd to have most of the news come from another smaller metro instead of where the majority of the people are. Just my personal opinion. I never watched NBC local news, even before they took the news off because of that lawsuit. But I watch KNWA now because they are located here in NWA and mainly just cover NWA news. As NWA grows we will become more of a regional draw and such but I guess it takes time when other cities are already established as regional centers and such.

Mith, there was. I remember the Ft. Smith cable provider threatening to pull KPOM (the Ft. Smith affiliate, whose sister station KFAA is now KNWA) off of their selection.

I realized that I didn't make that good of a point in my last paragraph...this market used to be owned by Fort Smith. That city was (and currently is still, I think) the second largest city in Arkansas...now it is becoming part of the Fayetteville/Rogers/Fort Smith DMA.

The situation we have now, though, would almost be like Pine Bluff growing so big that its DMA became the Pine Bluff/Little Rock DMA with the main TV station being in Little Rock.

Back to Joplin, NWA, DMAs and why Joplin got an Olive Garden long ago...their trading area was, I think, around 14 counties (5 Missouri, 1 Oklahoma, 8 Kansas).

Right now I think the Fort Smith/NWA Designated (TV) market ara combined is: Benton, Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Madison, Scott, Sebastian, Washington in Arkansas, LeFlore and Sequoyah in Oklahoma...geographically smaller (though some counties like LeFlore are BIG) and same with population. In the 80s the DMA was much closer to 200 than top 100 in rank, now the reverse is true (and it will be interesting to see how the next census shapes up the DMA numbers...those mean more $ for advertising). McDonald, MO is now in the Bentonville/Fayetteville metro area so it will be interesting if they join. Johnson County Arkansas may be in this as well...but again, the Crawford-Franklin-LeFlore-Logan-Scott-Sebastian-Sequoyah dollars usually headed off to Fort Smith, so you had THREE DMA trading counties for NWA for the longest time (and that was after Benton got shuffled off from Joplin).

Sorry to use such complexity in repeating the obvious...lotsa changes going on around here.

[KJW]

One thing more about KNWA...I remember a year or two ago when on their Sunday news that ran NOTHING but station and community promos during news breaks...the sign of unhealthy advertising dollars (and probably low ratings).

This past Sunday, I was flat amazed at all the diverse ads they had on their 10:00 pm 'cast...all this new promotion for them may be paying off.

I'm working like heck to find a way to promote our business on air and in the papers before the two new Rogers shopping centers open up...my ad rep for the Bentonville News said his company has split the territory down their with the anticipated customer volume from those two centers...

[Mith242]

One thing more about KNWA...I remember a year or two ago when on their Sunday news that ran NOTHING but station and community promos during news breaks...the sign of unhealthy advertising dollars (and probably low ratings).

This past Sunday, I was flat amazed at all the diverse ads they had on their 10:00 pm 'cast...all this new promotion for them may be paying off.

I'm working like heck to find a way to promote our business on air and in the papers before the two new Rogers shopping centers open up...my ad rep for the Bentonville News said his company has split the territory down their with the anticipated customer volume from those two centers...

I think it did take KNWA a little time to get their news program going again after the hiatus of being gone however many years that was after the lawsuit against them. But I do think there are people like me who watch it now instead because it's totally NWA. I'm still waiting to see if another station eventually makes the move and leaves Ft Smith or at least moves most of their offices and studios up to NWA.

[itk]

Interesting stuff KJW. But I have a question-- who determines the DMA's? Nielson I'm assuming? I always wondered why counties in SE Oklahoma would be included in the Channel 5 or 40/29 news area. I would think they would have more in common with Texarkana and Dallas, rather than Fort Smith/NWA.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

Interesting stuff KJW. But I have a question-- who determines the DMA's? Nielson I'm assuming? I always wondered why counties in SE Oklahoma would be included in the Channel 5 or 40/29 news area. I would think they would have more in common with Texarkana and Dallas, rather than Fort Smith/NWA.

I believe it is Neilsen.

DMAs can at times seem somewhat arbitrary.

They shrink and expand and metros essentially act as magnets pulling in their share of any given area into their DMA.

I think they rely or relied in the past primarily on free television broadcast signals and how far they reached. SE Oklahoma is pretty remote so its likely the closest broadcast repeater tower is for the Fort Smith area stations. Its no closer to OKC, Tulsa, or DFW. FSM/FAY is the closest media market and thats why they are included.

[KJW]

I believe it is Neilsen.

DMAs can at times seem somewhat arbitrary.

They shrink and expand and metros essentially act as magnets pulling in their share of any given area into their DMA.

I think they rely or relied in the past primarily on free television broadcast signals and how far they reached. SE Oklahoma is pretty remote so its likely the closest broadcast repeater tower is for the Fort Smith area stations. Its no closer to OKC, Tulsa, or DFW. FSM/FAY is the closest media market and thats why they are included.

itk, DickSonstreetDFW is pretty much right.

In the mid-80s, there also used to be the firm Arbitron (talk about a name that dropped completely off the horizon) which created similar measures called ADIs (Areas of Dominant Influence). Usually their ADIs and Nielsen's DMAs overlapped, but there were occasional discrepancies, usually involving counties at the edge of a DMA/ADI nearly equidistant between two media markets (as in the case of Johnson County and sometimes Polk County (Mena) in Arkansas.

However, in a big spread out county like LeFlore, they look at the population and attempt to calculate "All right, where are the majority of these folks getting their news from?" Most of the population in LeFlore is in the northern half, near Ft. Smith, so that makes it a bit easier.

McCurtain (the farthest southeast county, bordering Bowie (Texarkana) County, Texas) is in the Shreveport DMA, but Fort Smith TV signals beam down there...at Channel 5 we'd get letters from viewers there (this was before e-mail). KHBS/KHOG includes that (as well as McDonald County) in their extended viewing area.