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Predictions for the Future of Grand Rapids

localtalent

By localtalent
in Grand Rapids

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Rizzo City

Rizzo

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I think the Census should use your models... Flawed as hell too but hey I like it. I have no idea what would gnereate so much population growth in such a small window of time.

If your models are correct there will be hard times for the social service community here in GR.

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localtalent Hamlet

localtalent

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I think the Census should use your models... Flawed as hell too but hey I like it. I have no idea what would gnereate so much population growth in such a small window of time.

If your models are correct there will be hard times for the social service community here in GR.

I'm talking a 25 year time horizon. Plenty of time....

What was GR like 25 years ago?

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tringr Whistle-Stop

tringr

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The growth models of 1.2 million people in 20years for GR are funny. Not gonna happen in 20 years. Just look for examples anywhere. Forget the "models". Upgrading the infrastructure is not that fast. The only way is if the new project includes mfg. the Hydrogen energy Cell that Bush alluded to recently; AND GR is the first test area. LT is correct in the move towards more urbanization in the demographic shift, though. Just can't happen that fast.

I will admit that Kent county can Double in size to just over 1 million in 20 yrs., though.

Just two examples of the city not being able to handle growth. ONE.. I bought a new house five years ago in a new neighborhood. for five years, GR couldn't plow our streets within 3-4 days of a decent snow. They can't handle the addition of one neighborhood. TWO, I sold a house in GR just before that. The sidewalk tax for homesellers was paid. It took almost a year for them to fix one sidewalk square.

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tringr Whistle-Stop

tringr

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http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/14/real_estat...owing_counties/

Using recent numbers of the fastest growing counties, 10% seems to be a top number. IF Kent County did this for twenty years, it would double twice over, thus equaling two million plus. If it were one of the top growing counties for twenty years. Again, counties are easier to grow fast compared to cities.

I just don't know what models, or any examples, would find GR proper at over 1million population in 20 years. I wouldn't want to be here during that growth. Growing pains galore.

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Phizzy Hamlet

Phizzy

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I don't know localtalent. From 1970 to 2000, we didn't even double in population. You're saying we'll quadruple in the next 25? :huh:

I agree. McKenna Associates put together a strategic plan for Allendale Township, and they predict population growth of 13,042 in 2000 to 38,149 in 2020 for the township. That seems a bit of a stretch, and that is just a tripling of population for a township that is currently the fastest growing place in the area.

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localtalent Hamlet

localtalent

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I fully understand my numbers are a bit crazy.

But what if there was an element of the local economy which was:

1) Unique to the country, if not the world

2) A massive driver of economic growth

3) an almost insatiable model to attract new people to the city

Think Vegas-style growth. What would it look like in GR?

Of course, I'm sure I don't need to tell you guys that the MSA includes a Greenville-Hastings-Grand Haven-Muskegon box....it's a lot of territory.

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GaryP Burg

GaryP

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I fully understand my numbers are a bit crazy.

But what if there was an element of the local economy which was:

1) Unique to the country, if not the world

2) A massive driver of economic growth

3) an almost insatiable model to attract new people to the city

Think Vegas-style growth. What would it look like in GR?

Of course, I'm sure I don't need to tell you guys that the MSA includes a Greenville-Hastings-Grand Haven-Muskegon box....it's a lot of territory.

I can't think of anything that would have that type of effect on our city other than some local company curing cancer or something on that level.

And if something like that did happen, my guess is we'd end up looking a lot more like LA than SF. Sprawl does well with fast growth, urban deals take a lot longer (as you know apparently working on one for the last two years).

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snoogit Town

snoogit

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I can't think of anything that would have that type of effect on our city other than some local company curing cancer or something on that level.

And if something like that did happen, my guess is we'd end up looking a lot more like LA than SF. Sprawl does well with fast growth, urban deals take a lot longer (as you know apparently working on one for the last two years).

GR could only move north, or annex the southern suburbs if it wanted to grow.

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Phizzy Hamlet

Phizzy

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Of course, I'm sure I don't need to tell you guys that the MSA includes a Greenville-Hastings-Grand Haven-Muskegon box....it's a lot of territory.

Actually, it doesn't include Greenville, according to the Office of Management and Budget.

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tringr Whistle-Stop

tringr

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The OMB has made changes to the MSA's, apparently. There are more of them with a minimum number of people of only 50k. Muskegon and Ottawa counties now each have their own. Kent County MSA is called Grand Rapids-Wyomin which includes Ionia county now. "Economic Homogeneity" is one of the major deciding factors in drawing boundaries. GR used to be in the KOMA region, (Kent,Ottawa,Muskegon,Allegan). Greenville is in Montcalm county. MSA designation used to matter to the federal govt. for various budget allocations; don't know if they still do.

Large file of USA's MSA's

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/maps/msa_map...s_wall_1104.htm

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Phizzy Hamlet

Phizzy

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The OMB has made changes to the MSA's, apparently. There are more of them with a minimum number of people of only 50k. Muskegon and Ottawa counties now each have their own. Kent County MSA is called Grand Rapids-Wyomin which includes Ionia county now. "Economic Homogeneity" is one of the major deciding factors in drawing boundaries. GR used to be in the KOMA region, (Kent,Ottawa,Muskegon,Allegan). Greenville is in Montcalm county. MSA designation used to matter to the federal govt. for various budget allocations; don't know if they still do.

Large file of USA's MSA's

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/maps/msa_map...s_wall_1104.htm

Additionally, though, there is the Grand Rapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI Combined Statistical Area, which includes Grand Rapids-Wyoming MSA, Holland-Grand Haven MSA, Muskegon-Norton Shores MSA, and Allegan Micropolitan Statistical Area. This does not include Greenville (Montcalm County), either.

Map

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localtalent Hamlet

localtalent

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Additionally, though, there is the Grand Rapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI Combined Statistical Area, which includes Grand Rapids-Wyoming MSA, Holland-Grand Haven MSA, Muskegon-Norton Shores MSA, and Allegan Micropolitan Statistical Area. This does not include Greenville (Montcalm County), either.

Map

Evidently, I'm not up on all the governmental details. :blush:

Suffice to say that my predictions (other than the city of GR ones) were for the broad "West Michigan" market.

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GRguy Hamlet

GRguy

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I lived in Atlanta for 16 years during a period of unbelieveable growth.It went 2.1 M to over 4M. The infrastructure was in no way able to handle that growth and caused many unintended consequenses. My 11 mile commute to work would take 1 hour on a good day, 2 hours on a bad day, each way. From late May thru September, forget about blue skies, just a grey smog that obscures the new towers.

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grcitydog Whistle-Stop

grcitydog

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MSA's drive me absolutly nuts! I hear some that include Holland, some that include Muskegon, some that don't. I don't really get it. It seems to me that whoever is compiling the statistics will add or subtract what cities they want to get the stats to show the desired results (my cynical side coming through). When I look at GR, I see GR, EGR, Wyoming, Kentwood, Walker...just the immediate area. I don't see why they include some cities that are 30 miles or more away. If anyone can help answer this, please enlighten me. :blink:

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