Housing Market in NWA

[masons_dad1]

No way. I figure they will move to China.

The UK is WAY too expensive for Wal-Mart. I'm sure China has more windowless, cavernous warehouses in which they can assemble their cubicle-army, and at everyday lower prices.

Plus it makes sense that they move closer to their manufacturing base.

Wal-Mart already has operations in the UK with their ASDA Helpdesk. Doubtful they would move to London, but the UK in general is fairly affordable, at least compared to the US.

[masons_dad1]

I think the vendors would be thrilled to move their operations to a more accessible place where it's easier to find quality employees to staff their satellite offices.

It would also be harder for vendors to keep those quality employees in a larger market that has more higher paying jobs out there.

On the other hand, the talent pool of people WM could find to work for it would be much deeper and broader in a major metro and I assure even Dallas or Chicago would offer a massive incentive package to encourage a move like that.

Wal-Mart wouldn't want to pay the higher salaries of a major metro. In Bentonville, wages are only half as much as major metros.

When Boeiing left Seattle recently there was a bidding war between these two for their corporate relocation. I also disagree that NWA is on its way to becoming a major metro, at best it will become a LR, Wichita, or Tulsa - it will never be "major".

When the growth starts to slow down and the talks about the future multi-billion dollar technology industry coming to NWA and the countless opportunites NWA has starts to slow down then I'd agree. As it stands though NWA is more likely to become a major metro than LR, Wichita or Tulsa.

Again, I don't think anything will happen anytime soon. I just think when the company hits a few bumps down the road and Sam's legacy isn't so fresh they might follow the same road most other large corporations have and move to a larger market.

Wal-Mart isn't most other large corporations... it's the only Fortune 1 corporation on the planet. Besides, no matter what happens Wal-Mart will always be in business... everyone needs to eat and shoes on their feet.

Talk about moving to UK or China is ridiculous. It would hurt them tremendously in the domestic market where almost all of its profits derive and impose new restrictions and taxation on it. Do you know anything about British corporate taxes?

I'm not sure about British corporate taxes, but I have heard of the National Healthcare in the UK... the one that is paid for by employee taxes and not the corporations. Wal-Mart would save a lot with a National Healthcare.

[Aporkalypse]

Dick, sorry about the literal interpretations. I'm a skimmer, not a reader, so I do need the sarcasm tag sometimes.

masonsdad, you might be surprised to find out that that wages and average home price are lower in DFW than NWA. Unemployment is about twice the number it is in NWA, meaning more people are actively seeking out jobs. None of these things were probably true a decade or two ago but NWA has definitely changed. This is why it is very difficult for NWA to lure new companies and diversify its economy.

Don't get me started on NHS, I lived in the UK.

[masons_dad1]

Looks like the housing boom in Northwest Arkansas may have just popped... or is it one of those slow leaks that is just hissing away. A year ago the media was ablaze with development news and how huge the housing market is in Northwest Arkansas and now that the weather is starting to warm up this year the media is talking down the housing market and showing how home prices are about to start coming down in NWA.

It's too bad... A lot of the new houses and subdivisions were built on the outskirts of town and now that there won't be many more houses built for a while there's going to be a lot of undeveloped land between the commercial areas and the residential areas which will really feed traffic congestion and what about the roads... road improvements depend on developments and now we're going to see a lot of roads that go from good to bad intermittently between undeveloped and developed areas.

Just when I was beginning to hope maps of NWA were going to start looking like other developed cities it looks like NWA maps will still have a shotgun pattern of developed areas all over it.

http://www.thehometownchannel.com/news/8232037/detail.html

[Mith242]

Yeah first the Skyline Report said that home sales had slowed down, although a lot of that was due to the fact that developers had focused so much on more expensive homes. But this does follow the overall national trend. I guess it remains to be seen now if this is just a temporary slowdown or a growing trend. I know some of us might like to see the outrageous growth continue but it's really not such a bad thing if things slow down a bit. It gives infrastructure a chance to try to catch up a bit. Although I still doubt things are going to slow down too much in overall growth.

[masons_dad1]

Yeah first the Skyline Report said that home sales had slowed down, although a lot of that was due to the fact that developers had focused so much on more expensive homes. But this does follow the overall national trend. I guess it remains to be seen now if this is just a temporary slowdown or a growing trend. I know some of us might like to see the outrageous growth continue but it's really not such a bad thing if things slow down a bit. It gives infrastructure a chance to try to catch up a bit. Although I still doubt things are going to slow down too much in overall growth.

The only problem is that if the building stops so will infrastructure improvements. I can hear the mayors now saying "the city just can't afford infrastructure improvements especially when noone is building anymore." The cities that have impact fees depend on developers to pay the cost of infrastructure improvements. I can't see the city coming up with the money to cover for improvements in undeveloped areas.

[Aporkalypse]

The only problem is that if the building stops so will infrastructure improvements. I can hear the mayors now saying "the city just can't afford infrastructure improvements especially when noone is building anymore." The cities that have impact fees depend on developers to pay the cost of infrastructure improvements. I can't see the city coming up with the money to cover for improvements in undeveloped areas.

The biggest problem I see is a lack of cooperation between the different cities and two counties. There really needs to be a centralized authority in NWA regulating things rather than each city haphazardly doing its own thing.

[masons_dad1]

The biggest problem I see is a lack of cooperation between the different cities and two counties. There really needs to be a centralized authority in NWA regulating things rather than each city haphazardly doing its own thing.

I agree... but the cities don't seem to be getting along too well right now and it's all about money. Rogers wants Bentonville's money and Bentonville wants Fayetteville's downtown and Fayetteville just wants to be left alone. What we need is a Governor of Northwest Arkansas. When's the last time a region of a state seceded from the state? West Virginia?

[itk]

The biggest problem I see is a lack of cooperation between the different cities and two counties. There really needs to be a centralized authority in NWA regulating things rather than each city haphazardly doing its own thing.

In a way, there is. That is the NWA Regional Planning Commission, or NWARPC (see www.nwarpc.com). There are the federally desiginated metropolitan planning organization, or MPO. Every metro area of a certain size has one. MPO's have some authority (mostly all in regards to transportation), but not all. Their influence and authority will grow as NWA grows.

But the NWARPC can't make a city do anything. So if a city conducts bad planning (or lack of planning period), no one has the authority to punish them or anything. As I just posted in the Fayetteville thread, a city can elect not to participate in a regional forum (such as NWARPC). In that case, they can miss out and be left out of the loop. In a sense they will be haphazardly doing their own thing by not actively particpating in these regional forums.

However, having said all that NWA is acting much more "togetherly" (that's probably not a word) than before, and are more cooperative and willing to subjugate their own interests for the greater good. Really.

[itk]

I agree... but the cities don't seem to be getting along too well right now and it's all about money. Rogers wants Bentonville's money and Bentonville wants Fayetteville's downtown and Fayetteville just wants to be left alone. What we need is a Governor of Northwest Arkansas. When's the last time a region of a state seceded from the state? West Virginia?

Some do, some don't. Some both.

I've watched and listend as one NWA City agreed to lower a transportation improvement priority (like building a bridge or major widening of a highway) in their City to free up possible money for another priority in another City... all because they recognize what is in the greater interest of NWA.

Some processes, like the one I purposely vaguely described, are suprisingly well done, as they represent how nicely different jurisdictions can get along... without, here's the key, politics involved. Now when it comes down to the bottom line, where a lot of money is involved, a lot of politics will be involved. If decisions can be made as much as possible without politics getting into the mix, by staff level people who know what they are doing, then good things can happen. That is one of the major intents I believe of an MPO-- trying to take politics out of the planning decisions making process as possible.

[Mith242]

It is good to hear that at least in some ways the cities are working better together. Like itk said I think NWARPC will end up playing a bigger role in the future. Perhaps because circumstances will make it, but it will happen.

[Aporkalypse]

It is good to hear that at least in some ways the cities are working better together. Like itk said I think NWARPC will end up playing a bigger role in the future. Perhaps because circumstances will make it, but it will happen.

That would be great for NWA but the cities would have to agree to grant that authority, which I doubt they would do.

[itk]

That would be great for NWA but the cities would have to agree to grant that authority, which I doubt they would do.

Well yeah, but in this case about MPO's and transportation, they don't have a choice if it involves federal dollars. Which is in a lot of cases.

For example, Razorback Transit and Ozark Regional Transit both are in a way under the "authority" of the NWARPC-- not the cities. This is because NWARPC is a federal institution (for lack of a better term) overseeing the dispense of federal transit dollars.

If a city wants to build a highway or widen one with federal dollars... then it has to go through the State and in some cases the MPO.

If a city is just spending local dollars to do something in spite of another city (like contrary to another cities' master street plan), then really the MPO can't do anything since it's city dollars. In that case, it may be bad planning not in the best interest of the region... which I think all the MPO can do is represent a neatural party where two or more cities can try to reach a fair agreement (which is rare to be honest I think).

[MDEM]

I agree... but the cities don't seem to be getting along too well right now and it's all about money. Rogers wants Bentonville's money and Bentonville wants Fayetteville's downtown and Fayetteville just wants to be left alone.

Oh, did you ever just nail that one. All you forgot was Springdale's city council wanting Fayetteville's city revenue, and anyone's but their own reputation for intolerance. They won't live that down in any of our lifetimes, and rightfully so.

Fayetteville is the heart of NWA. Always has been, and will be into the future. Wal-Mart has always been a good neighbor, but they can go away if they want to, and Fayetteville will keep rocking right on.

None of us want to see NWA become a true metro area. Too many people = none of us can stand to live there anymore.

[Mith242]

I'm not sure if I'd say none of us want it to be a 'true' metro area. I think it's more a question of how and what happens along the way. Although I do agree that there are probably many people who would agree with you, just not everybody.

[DickSonstreetDFW]

None of us want to see NWA become a true metro area. Too many people = none of us can stand to live there anymore.

I'm in that camp. I think a better way of saying it we don't want NWA to become like every other large city.

Big cities have big city problems. I have family from NWA for at least four generations. I call dibs.

Seriously, its a matter of not being able to have your cake and eat it too.

NWA becoming a metro of 1,000,000 or more is going to come with a lot of trade-offs in the quality of life department.

Here's to smart growth, and long live Newton County.

[tim2462]

I'm in that camp. I think a better way of saying it we don't want NWA to become like every other large city.

Big cities have big city problems. I have family from NWA for at least four generations. I call dibs.

Seriously, its a matter of not being able to have your cake and eat it too.

NWA becoming a metro of 1,000,000 or more is going to come with a lot of trade-offs in the quality of life department.

Here's to smart growth, and long live Newton County.

LOL I don't think we have to worry about Newton County being developed.

[Mith242]

I certainly hope Newton County never has to worry about being developed. I'd still feel a lot better if they'd actually set aside some land and just make an area an outright National Park. The Buffalo National River is nice but I guess I'd like a little more land and having the status of it being an actual park.

But anyway as NWA continues to grow so will the problems I do admit that. I don't have any problems with some more growth. I'm not saying I'm wanting NWA to become Dallas-Ft Worth or anything. But if were a bit larger maybe we could have some more amenities.

[Aporkalypse]

Oh, did you ever just nail that one. All you forgot was Springdale's city council wanting Fayetteville's city revenue, and anyone's but their own reputation for intolerance. They won't live that down in any of our lifetimes, and rightfully so.

Fayetteville is the heart of NWA. Always has been, and will be into the future. Wal-Mart has always been a good neighbor, but they can go away if they want to, and Fayetteville will keep rocking right on.

None of us want to see NWA become a true metro area. Too many people = none of us can stand to live there anymore.

You're here now, too.

There goes the neighborhood.

I agree with your post wholeheartedly, though.

[MDEM]

You're here now, too.

There goes the neighborhood.

I agree with your post wholeheartedly, though.

I thought the same thing when I saw you were here. Stumbled across this site googling around one night. This is a good forum.

[Mith242]

Yeah I think quite a few people stumble across us. A lot of times in the afternoon you can see a lot of guests on over here. Most are probably searching for something and came across us. I imagine some of them come back to check up on things. We just have to get some of them to participate a little more. I think Matt and I were on here once and we had 20 guests. Of course that was when we were on the old server and things were slow as molasses here.

[masons_dad1]

A new report from the Northwest Arkansas Business Journal shows the future of the housing market loooks pretty bad even though the current demand is keeping up with the supply.

"With the recent release of new census data, the 2005 population in Benton and Washington counties increased by more than 56,000 from the 2000 census. This reflects a net monthly increase for the time period between 2000 and 2005 of nearly 936 people.

Using this data to project household demand, the supply of available housing in the area appears to exceed the possible number new home buyers.

Also, the number of lots currently available for single-family home development significantly exceeds the number of homes needed for the immediate future."

Read the full story HERE.

[Mith242]

Yeah it sounds like overall things are slowing down just a little bit at least. But the biggest question is this the beginning of a bigger slowdown in the future. I have my doubts that the economy up here is going to cool off anytime soon but that doesn't mean things will keep going at the pace that they have been.

[masons_dad1]

Yeah it sounds like overall things are slowing down just a little bit at least. But the biggest question is this the beginning of a bigger slowdown in the future. I have my doubts that the economy up here is going to cool off anytime soon but that doesn't mean things will keep going at the pace that they have been.

Right now the demand for houses hasn't been slowing down and there are plenty enough new houses to meet the current demand. The problem is that, without including current houses under construction, developers are constructing around 20,000 plats to build houses on. Even if the housing demand lasts a couple more years there's could be several thousand vacant houses on the market by that time. Once those houses are built and there's no more demand that could crush the housing market in NWA. Noone at all would be able to sell their house for any price. The economic development of the region won't have anything at all to do with the housing market. What good is having a great paying job if you already own a house, but you're stuck with it if you decide to move.