496,973

[Newnan]

why?

[nick]

The last estimates were at around 420,000-430,000 as of 2004. There's no way that Atlanta has added 80,000 people in a year and a half.

[Kardon]

The last estimates were at around 420,000-430,000 as of 2004. There's no way that Atlanta has added 80,000 people in a year and a half.

How do we know the last estimates were fairly low. Ive always the city had more than 425,000. May not be quite 500,000...but folks...city is adding by the thousands. If it hasnt happened. Its only a matter of time.

[nick]

I'm telling you, it's not possible. Yeah the city is growing, but not at 80,000 people in 2 years. Look I want the city to be huge like everyone else, but think about this logically.

[Andrea]

Look I want the city to be huge like everyone else....

Perhaps this is slightly beside the point, but I don't have any particular interest in seeing Atlanta become huge.

I'd much rather see it become excellent, and to set the standard in the metro area for education, sustainability, greeenspace, transportation, good governance, livability and overall quality of life.

[nick]

Perhaps this is slightly beside the point, but I don't have any particular interest in seeing Atlanta become huge.

I'd much rather see it become excellent, and to set the standard in the metro area for education, sustainability, greeenspace, transportation, good governance, livability and overall quality of life.

I meant huge as in a denser Atlanta with its urban areas filled in as they should be, which would mean a big increase in population, which means what everyone is talking about with a 500,000+ population. I think you get what I mean.

[Lady Celeste]

Out of curiosity, I went to the website of the Atlanta Regional Commission. I went to the section devoted to the city of Atlanta and I added up it's population count for 2005. Per this site, the population of Atlanta in 2005 was 447,321. I will provide the site so anyone can double check my addition.

Population Count for the City of Atlanta -2005

I add this because in the South Carolina forum (see here), I was told by CorgiMatt that Atlanta's population for 2005 is 399,000 per the Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide 2006 edition. He says he got these numbers from the 2006 edition at the local library. I am amazed at how there can be so many different numbers for the City of Atlanta. These days I don't know what to think. Who is right? How many people live in the city limits? Many people want to throw out the fact that alot of lower income hosuing was removed from downtown. What about all the "suburban" parts of the city that have experienced growth in the single residential level? There is a mass exodus of lower income residents from the city center but I would not think that in 2005 is would equate to 48,000 worth. That is the difference between the ARC figure and the one provided by CorgiMatt in the South Carolina forum.

[atlrvr]

Well the US Census projection should be released by the end of the month....though they don't have the best projections IMO.

For what it's worth, ESRI (which I find to be a bit more accurate) has the 2005 population at 433,448. What is interesting is that they actually show a decline in the absolute number of Whites in the city limits. There were 7,000 less whites living in the city in 2005 than 2000. Now all projections are based somewhat on historic trends, but ESRI usually does a decent job in detecting changes in trends.

[Lady Celeste]

Thank you Atlrvr. I had my suspicioins about the 399,321 number. Idecided to leave the cnversation until July 1. That's whne he said the new numbers will be released. As far as the drop in numbers of whites in the city, I am surprised. I would have thought it to be the opposite.

[waltand07]

Another question to add to this thread: When we do reach the peak population in the next, say five years then what momentum is behind those numbers. Do we start climbing even fast? With this said when does the city hit the 500,000 and 1,000,000 marks?

My vote for peak is five years (more like six in my mind)

My vote for 500,000 is seven years.

My vote for 1,000,000 is 12 years.

Just taking a stab. No numbers to back me up it's just a gut thing.

i think you are very close with your estimates. people are coming to the city left and right. the rate of northeners moving to big cities in the south is way higher than the rate of people moving north. you see how fast the METRO population is growing in 04-05 with over 200 thousand people a year, and atlanta's regular population will gradually move with it. Why? its in a perfect spot as far as weather. no dessert, not too cold, no mud slides, no earthquakes, and definately no hurricanes. heat in the summer is bearable.

[verge]

According to Atlanta's new planning commissioner the city's population is NOW around 500,000

and could reach 800,000 by 2030...

This was a comment at a public meeting by the Atlanta Commissioner...

He noted that the census bureau's numbers for Atlanta were incorrect as

they proved to be for Fulton County...

The census admitted recently to an undercount of 80,000 in unincorporated

Fulton county alone-- note how the county estimate jumped last year--

NOT because of a sudden rush in growth...

[teshadoh]

This was a comment at a public meeting by the Atlanta Commissioner...

He noted that the census bureau's numbers for Atlanta were incorrect as

they proved to be for Fulton County...

The census admitted recently to an undercount of 80,000 in unincorporated

Fulton county alone-- note how the county estimate jumped last year--

NOT because of a sudden rush in growth...

Who is the Atlanta Commissioner?

I also don't think the population has hit 500k, but is likely nearing or around 450k - there is too much gentrification / lower incom exodus going on.

[AubieTurtle]

i think you are very close with your estimates. people are coming to the city left and right. the rate of northeners moving to big cities in the south is way higher than the rate of people moving north. you see how fast the METRO population is growing in 04-05 with over 200 thousand people a year, and atlanta's regular population will gradually move with it. Why? its in a perfect spot as far as weather. no dessert, not too cold, no mud slides, no earthquakes, and definately no hurricanes. heat in the summer is bearable.

Unfortunately, what we don't have is a lot of water. The 'Hooch is already over used. It surprises me how much focus there is on fighting other states to allow us to suck out more water rather than building reservors that could take in water during the periods of the year when there is too much flow. If Alabama has one thing over Georgia, it is water resources.

On the other hand, with the way the metro has sprawled out in low density development, it might be impossible to find an appropriate valley to flood without displacing people who would tie the whole thing up in court forever.

The thought of building desalination plants to bring in water from the ocean so that people can waste it watering lawns made up of non-native plants is mind blowing.

[teshadoh]

I wanted to post this before anyone gets too carried away:

The Census Bureau reports the population estimate at 470,688 for July 1, 2005. But keep in mind - that the Census Bureau estimates are very faulty & that this population reconfiguration from the previous estimates since 2000, includes Fulton County's dubious population complaint to the Census. That complaint resulted in a roughly 100,000 increase to the county's population estimate. Therefore, what has resulted is the Census Bureau was stuck with an extra 100k & has had to figure out how to apply those extra people - resulting in Atlanta's now explosive growth.

April 1, 2000 / July 1, 2005 / July 1, 2004 / July 1, 2003 / July 1, 2002 / July 1, 2001 / July 1, 2000 / Estimates base Census

Atlanta city Georgia

470,688 / 465,621 / 456,412 / 443,492 / 433,253 / 417,020 / 416,425 / 416,474

http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/SUB-EST2005.html

Now I'm done with the pessimism - because nonetheless, even if the numbers themselves are sketchy - Atlanta is experiencing a great gain in population. Though it is likely at least 20k off, when considering that household sizes are decreasing - that rather than naturally decreasing in population due to gentrification, there is enough infill & condo development that is providing a sizable gain in population.

And there are those that still insist that the city is stagnant due to the city having not annexed any sizable parcel since the 1950's....

[Andrea]

Therefore, what has resulted is the Census Bureau was stuck with an extra 100k & has had to figure out how to apply those extra people - resulting in Atlanta's now explosive growth.

Brad, you're saying the 470,688 estimate (which would indicate growth of about 54,000 between 2000-2005) is probably too high or too low? Or that we simply can't tell? Sorry to be so dense.

[teshadoh]

Brad, you're saying the 470,688 estimate (which would indicate growth of about 54,000 between 2000-2005) is probably too high or too low? Or that we simply can't tell? Sorry to be so dense.

Too high. When you consider all the neighborhoods since 2000 that are experiencing great amounts of gentrification - Cabbagetown, Reynoldstown, Edgewood, East Atlanta, Ormewood Park, Boulevard Heights, Pittsburgh, West End & a few other south side neighborhoods - then imagine the houses there being home to a childless couple rather than a low income family of 5 to 10. The average household size is shrinking in the city - therefore gentrification causes a population loss.

On the other hand of course - the developments causing population gains, we know of several 1000 units having been built in Midtown, Downtown & scattered throughout the city (Glenwood Park, Inman Park Village, etc.) & also a number of single family homes being sandwiched in the few remaining lots in the city as well as a few new housing developments. There obviously will be a population gain - no one is contesting that. But 470k is just too high - yet. I have no doubt the city will hit that mark by 2010. But 450k is probalby a safer number - which still indicates a huge increase.

[alexr15]

Too high. When you consider all the neighborhoods since 2000 that are experiencing great amounts of gentrification - Cabbagetown, Reynoldstown, Edgewood, East Atlanta, Ormewood Park, Boulevard Heights, Pittsburgh, West End & a few other south side neighborhoods - then imagine the houses there being home to a childless couple rather than a low income family of 5 to 10. The average household size is shrinking in the city - therefore gentrification causes a population loss.

On the other hand of course - the developments causing population gains, we know of several 1000 units having been built in Midtown, Downtown & scattered throughout the city (Glenwood Park, Inman Park Village, etc.) & also a number of single family homes being sandwiched in the few remaining lots in the city as well as a few new housing developments. There obviously will be a population gain - no one is contesting that. But 470k is just too high - yet. I have no doubt the city will hit that mark by 2010. But 450k is probalby a safer number - which still indicates a huge increase.

But you also have to take into the account the explosion of growth in South Fulton. A lot of those homes along Camp Creek, Cascade and South Fulton are within the city limits of Atlanta. I would imagine that those areas are booming with families.

[teshadoh]

But you also have to take into the account the explosion of growth in South Fulton. A lot of those homes along Camp Creek, Cascade and South Fulton are within the city limits of Atlanta. I would imagine that those areas are booming with families.

There is a small area in Ben Hill @ Cascade west of 285 that covers the area you are talking about. But this is a small area that is largely built out already, I don't think Camp Creek is in the city anyways.

[alexr15]

There is a small area in Ben Hill @ Cascade west of 285 that covers the area you are talking about. But this is a small area that is largely built out already, I don't think Camp Creek is in the city anyways.

Does an Atlanta address not necessarily mean resident? I ask because I know a few people that live in Walden Park which is not in that area (Ben Hill) but they have an Atlanta address and pay prop taxes to Atlanta. The same thing with a few other large neighboords that have sprouted in S. Fulton.

[Newnan]

Dunwoody has an Atlanta address too. I doubt people there are considered citizens of Atlanta

[teshadoh]

^ Bingo - that is a big problem in our metro area, due to the crooked annexation laws it is very typical for people to have a city address despite being in unincorporated county. Marietta is a good example - all of northeast Cobb has a Marietta address. Atlanta city addresses range from the Cumberland Mall area in Cobb County through much of north Dekalb County. Sandy Springs had a city address, I would only assume they now have a Sandy Springs address.

Regarding Walden Park, I hope your friends there aren't paying city taxes - because they are far out of the city limits. Maybe they are paying water / sewer bills to the city?

[alexr15]

^ Bingo - that is a big problem in our metro area, due to the crooked annexation laws it is very typical for people to have a city address despite being in unincorporated county. Marietta is a good example - all of northeast Cobb has a Marietta address. Atlanta city addresses range from the Cumberland Mall area in Cobb County through much of north Dekalb County. Sandy Springs had a city address, I would only assume they now have a Sandy Springs address.

Regarding Walden Park, I hope your friends there aren't paying city taxes - because they are far out of the city limits. Maybe they are paying water / sewer bills to the city?

Well, that is dumb. Seems as though that would take away some precision when actually figuring out populations by making it easier to miscount people. And about Walden Park, I'll have to ask them again but you're probably right. If anything, it seems like they would be a part of East Point (CC Marketplace is in EP).

[teshadoh]

Census Bureau primarily uses zip codes for geocoding, not city - regarding estimates.

[Martinman]

The address thing is common in GA where people in unincorporated areas will often have a county seat address. I don't think you can address mail to ______ county, GA.

[teshadoh]

^ What would be interesting is a evaluation of unincorporated place names & promote some type of identity. As example - for the zip codes in northeast Cobb, "Johnsons Ferry" could be a viable name. Otherwise, Dunwoody, Redan, Mableton should all be used as post office names. But the problem is - & I don't understand this, the Census Bureau doesn't accept a large number of suburban areas as Census Designated Places - especially northeastern Cobb. Of course the problem is lack of identity, but any 'developed' area should not be uniformally ignored as if it is rural or doesn't exist.