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Hybrid0NE

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109 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Atlanta ever top it's peak population?

    • No.
      10
    • Yes, within 5 yrs.
      52
    • Yes, within 10 yrs.
      33
    • Yes, within 20 yrs. or longer
      15


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Well I am not surprised because for one thing almost no homes are selling, so you can't move into the city, and no homes or condo towers are being built, so it's like we are all stuck with Super Glue where we are.

On the good side, this has pretty much put a halt to Atlanta's horrendous suburban sprawl.

Maybe things will get better in the housing, lending, and construction industries, I hope.:huh:

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Last time I spoke with city hall personnel, they are contesting these numbers with the census. 2006 estimates had the city at 540k, so this is way off. Plus, Ive been here for two years and have seem sooo many people moving INTO the city. So 10k in ten years is not very accurate.

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On ‎3‎/‎19‎/‎2016 at 3:22 PM, Hybrid0NE said:

I just realized I made this thread a decade ago thinking this would've happened by 2010 Census. Maybe 2020 will be the "magic" year?

Given how dead these forums are these days, did you think you would get a response?? Well, you got one! LOL! (I do wish the forums would come alive.)

The 2010 census was a shock. The estimates didn't take into account the number of black residents and others who moved OUT. There was a loss of 31,000 blacks during the decade. There is now a black-flight phenomenon. The foreclosure crisis also affected the numbers. It's up in the air but at least maybe it can approach 500,000.

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I think some people in the city are still shocked about the census numbers because of all the growth in some parts of the city.   You are right Unifour and I've seen data that shows how some of the depressed areas lost population that offset the growth elsewhere. Fortunately, it appears that this decade will build on and exceed the growth that happened in the aughts.  Even more neighborhoods are growing again and experiencing investment that has not been seen probably since long before most of us were born. 

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From the way I remember it, I was expecting Atlanta to show a slight population decrease for the 2010 census. If you were anywhere near the City of Atlanta before the last census, you remember that the housing authority basically shuttered every housing project in the city (the exception being the facilities for the elderly and disabled). The sheer number of people displaced was staggering. I heard of numbers as high as 10 to 20,000. Had this not happened Atlanta's population could now be well above 500k.

I also remember that the response level to the census in the city of Atlanta was very low. At the time, I had several real estate clients who were buying up properties in economically challenged areas of the city. I would oftentimes ask locals would they be participating in.the census. I can't tell you how many times I was told "no". Many just didn't see the value in filling out the census. Some were suspicious of what the government would do with the information. Some would have multi-generations in one apartment or house. They were afraid that they would get evicted if their landlord found out that people not on the lease was living in the property. Of course there was the language barrier of some. Even with my reassurances, there was a high level of suspicion or an attitude of being nonchalant.

Many of those challenged neighborhoods probably reached rock bottom 3-4 years ago. I expect to see a greater population increase in the 2020 census. It would behoove the city to get the word out at lease a year before the next census. Also, educating the communities with the most vulnerable populations would be helpful. Hopefully the next census will show greater participation and less suspicion than the last census.

As Martinman said previously, the city is in the midst of a great growth spurt. This is even more promising because it's happening in almost all sectors of the city. Things like the Beltline, the redevelopment of South Atlanta, the redevelopment of Turner Field property...and with the popularity of Buckhead, Midtown, West Midtown and East Atlanta...things are really looking up. Instead of the population number, I am most excited about the increase in quality of life offerings that is taking place in the city.

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Thank you Martinman and LadyCeleste. I also wonder if the census was totally accurate. Mayor Reed didn't think it was but it has not been revised up so the census is sticking with it. The demolition of public housing was a huge part of it. I've heard anecdotally that many of the displaced residents went to the suburbs. The foreclosure crisis hit other areas badly. Some areas were over 60% vacant afterword. So many areas still have entire abandoned blocks. Census estimates can go either way. During the 1990's, they UNDERCOUNTED the metro and the city. The 1999 estimate had the metro at 3.8 million and about 100,000 in growth every year. The 2000 census found 4.1 million in the old 20 county metro. I won't make the mistake again of thinking these estimates are written in blood.

There is a lot of construction going on in the city. However, they are being filled with a lot of single people. We'll just have to wait and see to be honest.

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Just from my own firsthand experience, I agreed with Mayor Reed's challenge . There was only one problem with his argument. It's not that the Census "undercounted" per se but rather they (the Census) met with resistance to their counters on the ground. Also, many people just neglected or refuse to fill out the census form. The places that lost the most people due to displacement (southern and western portions of the city) also had the largest family units per household...at least in my estimation. I remember seeing an article a year or so after the 2010 Census that listed the City of Atlanta as one of the cities with the least census response. For whatever reason people don't understand that there are federal funding implications to filling out the form.

I just hope that the city limits don't grow much larger in order to have a higher population number. I would much rather keep the city limits at 133 square miles and increase the density beyond the current 3400 people per square mile. There are thousands of apartments under construction inside the city limits so we should see a decent bump in the next census. There seems to be a nice amount of suburb-to-city migration. When you have a metropolitan area that is almost 6 million people, just a small fraction of that population moving intown can make a huge difference. Couple that with the 95,000+ new residents to the metro area last year and it's easy to see that the City of Atlanta is poised to grow in numbers and density to historical levels by the 2020 census.    

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City of Atlanta now outgrowing suburbs!

The article is behind the firewall so I will give a few out the main pointers here:

 

In 2015, the city of Atlanta issued 6,028 residential building permits, substantially more than either Gwinnett, Forsyth or Cobb individually. For all of 2015, Gwinnett issued 3,636 residential building permits; Forsyth, 3,270; and Cobb, 2,017, according to the data. In the first two months of this year alone, the city issued 2,023 residential building permits, which is more than the combined total of 1,992 for Gwinnett (612), Forsyth (523) and Cobb (857).

Still, the data shows that since the recession ended, the residential development boom has been far more concentrated inside the city. That point is driven home by the large number of cranes dotting the skyline for new apartment buildings, especially in Buckhead and Midtown. I have said many times that it appears that some of Atlanta's sizable metropolitan populace is moving to close in communities. While there will ALWAYS be suburban growth, we are seeing intown communities grow in density, amenities and popularity. Last year the metro area grew by 95,000. If just 10% chose the city, that will more than fill the newly permitted dwellings.

What is even more remarkable about the permit numbers is that the City of Atlanta only comprises 133 square miles of the metro area. While 133 square miles is still sizable, it shows that the city is now reaping the benefits of smart growth and development. Perhaps this will show up in the 2020 census.


The boom is so concentrated that some intown neighborhoods are running out of vacant land. Consider the Buckhead Village, where existing buildings are being demolished to make way for new apartments.   

 

Source: City growth outpacing suburban growth.

Edited by Lady Celeste
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Wow LadyCeleste, those numbers are amazing. Few cities are undergoing such fundamental change. Midtown is essentially one big construction zone. The new buildings are having little trouble filling up. The lowest lease rate I've seen was over 60% for one. Most of the rest are at 90% or above. It should still be enough to show a sizable increase in population.

Edited by Unifour

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To make things even more exciting, the city is planning for growth and density.  Tim Keane, the city's planning commissioner by way of Charleston, is planning for the city's population to triple over the next 30 years and for the growth to occur in the core areas and corridors.  That might sound ambitious but it is based on Census population projections for the region combined with the percentage of people that want to live in an urban area. The darker gold areas are highest density.

 

ATLdesign-corridors.jpg

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