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fieldmarshaldj

Census Underestimates Nashville Population

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I see the Census Bureau released its 2005 County Estimates today and Davidson County got shortchanged again, take a look: (Source: http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tabl...T2005-01-47.xls )

Davidson County

2000: 569,891

7/2001: 571,178

7/2002: 569,016

7/2003: 569,731

7/2004: 571,948

7/2005: 575,261

Anyone here believe that we've gained a paltry 5,370 people since 2000 ? I believe we are at or around 625,000 at least.

The same estimates show Knox County having gained 22k from 2000-05, from 382k to 404k and Shelby County gaining 12k from 897k to 909k.

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I totally agree that they're grossly understated. At least the Census Bureau has the population starting to move up a little faster than in 2000-2004. There right that the population growth is accelerating. But it's not accelerating from practically zero growth. It's accelerating from a steady and moderate growth rate that was at least 6,000 per year.

I'm a little less agressive with my estimate of 2005 Davidson County population. I'm accepting Metro Nashville's estimate of 595,714 in 2004 as being accurate. I'm adding 10,000 to that for 2005 (accelerating growth which I alluded to earlier) to predict 2005 population at 605,714 and current 2006 population at 615,714.

Metro Nashville Population Estimate

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^ The nashville numbers are pie-in-the-sky, but close. There just hasn't been any 'significant' growth in any area of Davidson Co. But there are three areas that should add some significant numbers between now and 2010. DT, West, and Brentioch

I still lean toward the Census numbers as correct for the legal population. Maybe I'll get out Saturday and do a quick head count...

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I still lean toward the Census numbers as correct for the legal population. Maybe I'll get out Saturday and do a quick head count...

Heh...

In any event, as a follower of census figures for many years now, I well remember their grotesquely underestimated numbers for Davidson County throughout the '90s, when the estimates seem to point to a total gain of perhaps only around 20,000 people from '90 to '00 (from 510 to 530k), so needless to say when the final figures showed we were at 570k, my jaw dropped (because I presumed their initial estimates to be correct). It seems that they are back to form showing an improbable population decline and slow-growth rebound which doesn't seem to fit with what we see and read about from day to day. Even if I'm estimating a tad high at 625k, I'll bet I'm not off by more than 10 or 15k.

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I think the Census tends to be conservative in their estimates. It's no secret that big cities have complained for years that they undercount, especially the homeless, aliens, etc. The sad thing is that even when the "real" count is done in four years, due to the ridiculous restraints put on Census's methodology by Congress, these groups will still be undercounted in urban areas.

Regardless, the growth rates here don't jive with the very high rental occupancy rates we have seen in Nashville.

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The nashville numbers are pie-in-the-sky, but close. There just hasn't been any 'significant' growth in any area of Davidson Co. But there are three areas that should add some significant numbers between now and 2010. DT, West, and Brentioch

I read an article in the Tennessean about two years ago in which it was said that (at the time) 14,000 housing units had been built in the 2000-2003 time frame. Granted everything in the Tennessean is of questionable accuracy, but I seem to remember somebody on this forum provided links to the annual residential permits for the same period and they lined up.

Assuming the figure was correct, and assuming a conservative 2 residents per unit (this number has declined in recent years due to demographic changes across the USA), then you have apx. 28K more residents in Davidson County a/o 2004 (giving 598K). So assuming that the growth has held steady (once again conservative), then the increase from spring 2004 is about 14K-15K, thus giving apx. 612K-613K now.

The target for 2010 is apx. 640K, but this is a conservative figure.

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We had a link here in the past to a City Paper article that detailed the record year Nashville has had for permits. This lead one to believe that Davidson Co. numbers are going up; but the permits pulled will not be filled with people (roughly) until this year and MDHA has gone on an apartment demolishing spree which has shifted people around (and I'm not 100% sure of the result). This said, looking at the real estate market, etc. leads me to believe that we have held our ground population-wise. But I still expect a reasonable net gain over the next few years based on new developments underway. Not enough me left tonight for details, but I don't expect to add 70K to reach 640K by 2010. If I had to make an educated guess, I'd probably pick a number around 615K - but that's just me.

Sig Tower is large enough to make an impact, but I really think it will involve more local relocation vs. out-of-county influx. I think it's obvious that Viridian, Adelicia, and possibly Encore are pulling some people in. I really think the 2010 census will be important in telling us where people are coming from.

My opinion, but I see Davidson Co. adding more singles and married couples (young and old) while losing families (3+). This being said, now I'll revert to the new developments West and in Brentioch areas: if they can get momentum, they will make a significant impact on the 2010 numbers

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