Huntsville Metro Population Growth

[jmanhsv]

I bet everyone's seen this, but if you haven't, here it is.

Census Bureau 2005 Population Estimates

County/July 1 2005/July 1 2004/Change/%Change

.Autauga County,"48,612","47,458","1,154",2.4

.Baldwin County,"162,586","156,688","5,898",3.8

.Barbour County,"28,414","28,545",-131,-0.5

.Bibb County,"21,516","21,290",226,1.1,

.Blount County,"55,725","54,973",752,1.4

.Bullock County,"11,055","11,199",-144,-1.3

.Butler County,"20,766","20,686",80,0.4

.Calhoun County,"112,141","111,982",159,0.1

.Chambers County,"35,460","35,557",-97,-0.3

.Cherokee County,"24,522","24,456",66,0.3

.Chilton County,"41,744","41,377",367,0.9

.Choctaw County,"14,807","15,138",-331,-2.2

.Clarke County,"27,269","27,371",-102,-0.4

.Clay County,"13,964","14,056",-92,-0.7

.Cleburne County,"14,460","14,471",-11,-0.1

.Coffee County,"45,567","45,077",490,1.1

.Colbert County,"54,660","54,728",-68,-0.1

.Conecuh County,"13,257","13,413",-156,-1.2

.Coosa County,"11,162","11,306",-144,-1.3

.Covington County,"37,003","36,836",167,0.5

.Crenshaw County,"13,727","13,649",78,0.6

.Cullman County,"79,886","79,092",794,1.0

.Dale County,"48,748","49,021",-273,-0.6

.Dallas County,"44,366","44,715",-349,-0.8

.DeKalb County,"67,271","66,928",343,0.5

.Elmore County,"73,937","71,829","2,108",2.9

.Escambia County,"38,082","38,256",-174,-0.5

.Etowah County,"103,189","103,096",93,0.1

.Fayette County,"18,228","18,185",43,0.2

.Franklin County,"30,737","30,685",52,0.2

.Geneva County,"25,735","25,562",173,0.7

.Greene County,"9,661","9,697",-36,-0.4

.Hale County,"18,316","18,228",88,0.5

.Henry County,"16,610","16,535",75,0.5

.Houston County,"94,249","92,914","1,335",1.4

.Jackson County,"53,650","53,747",-97,-0.2

.Jefferson County,"657,229","658,468","-1,239",-0.2

.Lamar County,"14,962","15,017",-55,-0.4

.Lauderdale County,"87,691","87,466",225,0.3

.Lawrence County,"34,605","34,470",135,0.4

.Lee County,"123,254","120,537","2,717",2.3

.Limestone County,"70,469","69,202","1,267",1.8

.Lowndes County,"13,076","13,154",-78,-0.6

.Macon County,"22,810","23,164",-354,-1.5

.Madison County,"298,192","293,598","4,594",1.6,

.Marengo County,"21,879","22,026",-147,-0.7

.Marion County,"30,154","30,159",-5,0.0

.Marshall County,"85,634","84,767",867,1.0

.Mobile County,"401,427","400,107","1,320",0.3

.Monroe County,"23,733","23,698",35,0.1

.Montgomery County,"221,619","221,802",-183,-0.1

.Morgan County,"113,740","112,930",810,0.7

.Perry County,"11,371","11,521",-150,-1.3

.Pickens County,"20,178","20,345",-167,-0.8

.Pike County,"29,639","29,423",216,0.7

.Randolph County,"22,717","22,576",141,0.6

.Russell County,"49,326","49,164",162,0.3

.St. Clair County,"72,330","70,275","2,055",2.9

.Shelby County,"171,465","165,463","6,002",3.6

.Sumter County,"13,819","14,078",-259,-1.8

.Talladega County,"80,457","80,157",300,0.4

.Tallapoosa County,"40,717","40,774",-57,-0.1

.Tuscaloosa County,"168,908","167,178","1,730"

.Walker County,"70,117","69,876",241,0.3

.Washington County,"17,773","17,820",-47,-0.3

.Wilcox County,"12,937","12,927",10,0.1

.Winston County,"24,498","24,487",11,0.0

Thoughts? Concerns? Wonder why 25 counties are losing population?

And did you notice anything different? Baldwin's (supposedly) the fastest growing county in the state.

[Blazer85]

Interesting. Jefferson Co. is the only BHM Metro county with a decline in population (and that's only a slight decline). I dont, however, put a whole lot of faith in these things. These "estimates" are even less reliable traditionally than the Census. Shelby Co. likely fell behind Baldwin because people are getting serious about slowing development in Shelby Co. so it doesnt get out of hand. Also, people arent as willing to live down there with all the traffic problems. Once I-65 is widened, you're likely to see the Shelby Co. numbers grow again. St. Clair Co. is also inching up there towards earning the top % gain in the state.

[nitek_of_mobile]

Perhaps the negative population growth in Jefferson and Montgomery Counties is the result of abject perceptions held by suburbanites towards the respective core cities. The shear size of Mobile County helps to counter any potential populaton loss to suburban sprawl. Baldwin County's growth can be attributed to the burgeoning development of the suburban eastern shore suburbs along Mobile Bay and the continued evolution of Orange Beach/Gulf Shores as an extenstive vacation destination in the southern part of the county.

In a couple of years, I expect Lee and possibly Macon counties to benefit from the economic effects of Columbus, GA's potentially phenomenal growth.

[DruidCity]

Perhaps the negative population growth in Jefferson and Montgomery Counties is the result of abject perceptions held by suburbanites towards the respective core cities.

That's possible, but it could also be that the core cities aren't producing the jobs.

Birmingham's job market was hit pretty hard by deals like Wachovia.

Outlying employers like Mercedes and Honda, which have been adding jobs, are about as convenient a commute from Shelby County as from Jefferson.

Baldwin County really has a "Florida Panhandle" growth pattern going on, as

retirees and vacationers play significant roles.

It's really the only part of the state that has any significant tourism.

[elb401]

Yea, a lot of the people that are moving into baldwin county are retirees and people from Florida. Its becoming a shared suburb between Mobile and Pensacola. They expect Foley to be the 2nd largest city in baldwin county to tie with daphne in 2010. Fairhope is expected to surpass daphne to become the largest in 2010. I"m not sure if baldwin really passed shelby county as the fastest growing. The numbers aren't really concret. The post office lthis month came out and said that 9,000 perminate addresses were changed by home owners to Mobile from hurricane Katrina damaged areas. I bet there will be more developement in south Mobile county as soon as bayou la batre is converted to the resort town. a lot of developers have bought land near the Mississippi sound in anticipation that the area will become a new eastern shore since that area it is becoming overcrowded. I think ya'll are right about Mobile county having a population increase because of its size.

[nitek_of_mobile]

I bet there will be more developement in south Mobile county as soon as bayou la batre is converted to the resort town. a lot of developers have bought land near the Mississippi sound in anticipation that the area will become a new eastern shore since that area it is becoming overcrowded. I think ya'll are right about Mobile county having a population increase because of its size.

There needs to be a more direct (possibly limited access) connection between I-10 and Dauphin Island. I would also like to see a superregional open air retail center in the vicinity of Bayou La Batre and Dauphin Island.

[DruidCity]

open air retail center in the vicinity of Bayou La Batre and Dauphin Island.

Is that area susceptible to flooding ?

They expect Foley to be the 2nd largest city in Baldwin county

Cool. My father's uncle was mayor of Foley many decades before, so I've always kind of liked the town.

Mobile county having a population increase because of its size.

Right. Physical size is a positive factor for Baldwin, Tuscaloosa, and Mobile counties, as they are the three largest counties in the state, in terms of land area.

[nitek_of_mobile]

Is that area susceptible to flooding ?

That doesn't seem to be stopping the re-development of a town center for Bayou La Batre.

[DruidCity]

Do you have a link for that project ?

[elb401]

There isn't a real link to the project yet.....i think. I'm not sure but I know that a major chunk of the town has been bought up but the negotiations continue. there are some newspaper articles from the Mobile Press Register. Its gonna be neat. I can't wait. I just hope Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Heron Bay have controled developement. they can learn from the mistakes that were made on the eastern shore.

[codyg1985]

Those counties that have lost population seem to either be outlying counties far away from any opportunities or counties that harbor the core city of a growing metro area (Jefferson, Montgomery). In the latter case, it is probably a result of cheaper costs and better opportunities in neighboring suburban areas. I would expect to see Jefferson and Mobile counties turn their negative trends (Mobile already has) as more areas are opened up for development due to improved highway access.

I wonder if any of these numbers take into account any Katrina evacuees?

[elb401]

I don't think they do since the post office said that 9,000 perminent residential addresses were changed to Mobile over the past few months from Katrina destroyed areas.

[jmanhsv]

I wonder if any of these numbers take into account any Katrina evacuees?

Nope. These estimates were taken on July 1, about 2 months before Katrina.

[jmanhsv]

Here are the MSA/CSA numbers for the Big 4 cities. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm guessing that Mobile's CSA includes Mobile and Baldwin, and Montgomery's MSA includes Montgomery, Elmore, Autauga, and Lowndes.

Birmingham/Hoover-Cullman CSA- 1,170,012 (oops)

Mobile CSA- 564,013

Huntsville/Decatur CSA- 517,006

Montgomery- 357,244

[Blazer85]

Here are the MSA/CSA numbers for the Big 4 cities. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm guessing that Mobile's CSA includes Mobile and Baldwin, and Montgomery's MSA includes Montgomery, Elmore, Autauga, and Lowndes.

Birmingham/Hoover-Cullman CSA- 1,128,268

Mobile CSA- 564,013

Huntsville/Decatur CSA- 517,006

Montgomery- 357,244

This was my calculation for the Birmingham/Hoover-Cullman CSA: 1,170,012

[jmanhsv]

^I forgot Chilton County!

[ATLman1]

Perhaps the negative population growth in Jefferson and Montgomery Counties is the result of abject perceptions held by suburbanites towards the respective core cities. The shear size of Mobile County helps to counter any potential populaton loss to suburban sprawl. Baldwin County's growth can be attributed to the burgeoning development of the suburban eastern shore suburbs along Mobile Bay and the continued evolution of Orange Beach/Gulf Shores as an extenstive vacation destination in the southern part of the county.

In a couple of years, I expect Lee and possibly Macon counties to benefit from the economic effects of Columbus, GA's potentially phenomenal growth.

East Alabama will benefit greatly from Columbus's massive growth. There are thousands of new jobs being created in Columbus with Fort Bennings expansion. Also, AFLAC, TSYS, and Synovus in Columbus are expanding creating thousands of new jobs. The Kia plant that is being built in West Point (northern suburb of Columbus) is creating around 6,000 new jobs (with suppliers that locate near the plant). Lee County (Auburn/Opelika) is expected to grow 10% over the next 4 years. Hopefully, Lee County will finally be included in Columbus's MSA population.

[AlabamaGuy2007]

The "mayor" of the arsenal doesn't think that Huntsville can go it alone. It seems like most Huntsvillians believe that they themselves (the city of Huntsville) can simply absorb this new infulx of people and just sprawl into this huge metropolis like Atlanta. Well, here's the reality check:

Colonel says Huntsville can't go it alone

Check please!!

(sorry, it was bad pun)

But, the article discusses how Huntsville isn't the only town that has a lot of available current office space. The Lurleen Wallace Center was renovated for the Decatur City Schools Magnet Program while new schools were being built. Now, the newly renovated space is sitting there, just waiting for someone to use it. I'm sure there's also office space in the Amsouth Tower in downtwon Decatur, there's a lot to be used.

[HSVTiger]

The "mayor" of the arsenal doesn't think that Huntsville can go it alone. It seems like most Huntsvillians believe that they themselves (the city of Huntsville) can simply absorb this new infulx of people and just sprawl into this huge metropolis like Atlanta. Well, here's the reality check:

Colonel says Huntsville can't go it alone

Check please!!

(sorry, it was bad pun)

But, the article discusses how Huntsville isn't the only town that has a lot of available current office space. The Lurleen Wallace Center was renovated for the Decatur City Schools Magnet Program while new schools were being built. Now, the newly renovated space is sitting there, just waiting for someone to use it. I'm sure there's also office space in the Amsouth Tower in downtwon Decatur, there's a lot to be used.

no one said they could, Mayor Spencer and other officials have said all along that this will benefit the entire region. They also said they would like to have as many transplants as possible which means doing all they can do to help in that process. The other "mayor " is giving a pep talk to surrounding communities to get off their rear ends.

[kayman]

Yeah, that is basically what he is saying, "The region will be gain a lot of outsiders and there needs to be more regional cooperation." I beg you guys please cooperate together on this, PLEASE! I don't want you guys stick on stupid like most government officials are Greater Birmingham has been for the last 3 decades. You see how much catching up we have to do, and Huntsville-Decatur shouldn't have to suffer through this.

[jmanhsv]

The "mayor" of the arsenal doesn't think that Huntsville can go it alone. It seems like most Huntsvillians believe that they themselves (the city of Huntsville) can simply absorb this new infulx of people and just sprawl into this huge metropolis like Atlanta.

I don't know where he got the mentality that the city of Huntsville wanted to "go it alone". The whole region will benefit from BRAC. Besides, Huntsville cannot accomodate people who want a rural, small town, or lakeside lifestyle. That's where cities like Guntersville, Fayetteville and Scottsboro, etc will come in. Huntsville doesn't have an IB program in their schools. Thats where Decatur comes in.

And if Huntsville were going it alone, the area chambers of commerce wouldn't have made this site: www.tennessee-valley.org/

[AlabamaGuy2007]

Ok, it was just my point of view. I agree this shouldn't and isn't going to be turned into some kinda "unhappy" discussion. From the people in Decatur's point of view, a lot of people in Huntsville seem to have a big ego. Operative word being SEEM. I probably shouldn't have used that broad of a statement to say everyone thought that the city could do it on its own, I apologize. I do know quite a few people in the Huntsville area that are really nice and friendly.

Plus, I don't get much info about what Huntsville's doin. Doesn't mean they're not doin anything, I know they are, I just don't hear about it. Maybe I should start reading the Huntsville Times too.

Hehe, I do rather strongly support the mayor in quotations HSVTiger.

[kayman]

City continues to expands; building permits on the rise

The City of Madison is now home to some 35,000 residents, but expects to be max out at 63,000. The number of building permits in 2006 has been projected to outnumber the ones issued in 2005, and this is even before the arrival of BRAC realignment employees from VA. The city is anticipating more major growth the expectation this future residents.

[Huntsville_secede]

I was bored, so I decided to try to predict how the biggest cities in Alabama'll turn out over time in terms of population if recent growth rates stay constant (of course they won't, so this is unlikely)...

However, in the unlikely situation that they do, apparently:

A. City population

Huntsville will pass Mobile in population before 2015, becoming the third-largest city in the state, then surpassing Montgomery in population before 2020, becoming the second-largest city at about 200,000 population (Montgomery will decline slightly). Inner-city Birmingham will continue to decline, falling behind Huntsville in population around 2021-22 or so to become the second-largest city and then meeting Montgomery at around 190,000 population and becoming the third-largest city around 2030.

So we have:

2005

Birmingham around 230,000

Montgomery around 200,000

Mobile around 195,000

Huntsville around 165,000-170,000

to

2030

Huntsville~ 220,000

Montgomery~ 190,000

Birmingham ~ 190,000

Mobile ~ 150,000

Of course, it's not going to turn out exactly like this because growth rates change. Birmingham might get its act together and prolong, or even make relatively permanent, its status as the state's largest city but they'll need better leadership than they have now. Huntsville's growth rate slowing as it gets bigger would also prolong Birmingham's "reign..."

B. Metropolitan Areas

Although Birmingham will likely fall behind Montgomery & Huntsville in terms of city population at some point, Birmingham should remain the dominant urban/population center in the state into the forseeable future. Going by 1990-2000 growth rates (not really accurate),

Huntsville metro would surpass Mobile's in population at about 580,000 around 2035. No shifts to the status quo other than that...

It would look like:

2005

Birmingham- 1,090,126

Mobile- 401,427

Huntsville - 368,681

Montgomery-- 357,244

2045 (long time from now)

Birmingham - 1,572,965

Huntsville - 686,154

Mobile - 661,495

Montgomery - 601,256

I have no idea why I posted this, as it is completely irrelevant to anything. But it'd be interesting to see whether these predictions work out.

Another thing... the obvious inaccuracies that result from making predictions this way are shown by applying the "method" to Hoover... if you continue Hoover's explosive 50% per 10 years growth rate indefinitely, then the prediction is that it'll be in competition with Huntsville for "biggest city in the state" by 2030, which seems highly unlikely.

These stats do not include Huntsville/Decatur metro so what do you think it would be?

[PortofBama]

I was bored, so I decided to try to predict how the biggest cities in Alabama'll turn out over time in terms of population if recent growth rates stay constant (of course they won't, so this is unlikely)...

However, in the unlikely situation that they do, apparently:

A. City population

Huntsville will pass Mobile in population before 2015, becoming the third-largest city in the state, then surpassing Montgomery in population before 2020, becoming the second-largest city at about 200,000 population (Montgomery will decline slightly). Inner-city Birmingham will continue to decline, falling behind Huntsville in population around 2021-22 or so to become the second-largest city and then meeting Montgomery at around 190,000 population and becoming the third-largest city around 2030.

So we have:

2005

Birmingham around 230,000

Montgomery around 200,000

Mobile around 195,000

Huntsville around 165,000-170,000

to

2030

Huntsville~ 220,000

Montgomery~ 190,000

Birmingham ~ 190,000

Mobile ~ 150,000

Of course, it's not going to turn out exactly like this because growth rates change. Birmingham might get its act together and prolong, or even make relatively permanent, its status as the state's largest city but they'll need better leadership than they have now. Huntsville's growth rate slowing as it gets bigger would also prolong Birmingham's "reign..."

B. Metropolitan Areas

Although Birmingham will likely fall behind Montgomery & Huntsville in terms of city population at some point, Birmingham should remain the dominant urban/population center in the state into the forseeable future. Going by 1990-2000 growth rates (not really accurate),

Huntsville metro would surpass Mobile's in population at about 580,000 around 2035. No shifts to the status quo other than that...

It would look like:

2005

Birmingham- 1,090,126

Mobile- 401,427

Huntsville - 368,681

Montgomery-- 357,244

2045 (long time from now)

Birmingham - 1,572,965

Huntsville - 686,154

Mobile - 661,495

Montgomery - 601,256

I have no idea why I posted this, as it is completely irrelevant to anything. But it'd be interesting to see whether these predictions work out.

Another thing... the obvious inaccuracies that result from making predictions this way are shown by applying the "method" to Hoover... if you continue Hoover's explosive 50% per 10 years growth rate indefinitely, then the prediction is that it'll be in competition with Huntsville for "biggest city in the state" by 2030, which seems highly unlikely.

These stats do not include Huntsville/Decatur metro so what do you think it would be?