Huntsville Metro Population Growth

[PortofBama]

Interesting information but yet a little off nooffense the metro population of Birmingham which is Jefferson county proper is alittle over 600,000 . The Mobile metro population was is correct over 401,000 in population . montgomery county is at 221,000 and madison county poipulation is correstand growing rapidly as i'm typing now Lol.

Ihe Birmingham CSA which is combined stitisctical area which is a combonation of of 7 or 8 different counties and it is better known as the Birmingham-Cullman CSA population that is where the population surpasses 1 million . The Mobile CSA is Mobile and Baldwin County and combined the population is over 567,000. Montgomery CSA is combined with 3 or 4 different counties and it's CSA is over 367,000 which was first mintioned. Huntsville CSA includes 4 to 5 different counties as well and is right behind Mobile in terms of CSA population . Huntsville CSA population is over 508,000 and Huntsville CSA is better known as Huntsville-Decatur CSA.

There was a discussion about a year ago about includding other counties into Mobile's CSA Mobile's CSA only includes just 1 county and that is Baldwin. Tuscaloosa County may be included in Birminhams 7 to 8 county CSA and there has been talk about including Lee county into Huntsville CSA. The Mobile CSA in the near future will include neighboring Gulf Coast Mississipi counties which is over 300,000 in population to Pensacola,Fl whose CSA as of now is over 500,000 as well but city population is only over 50,000. If neghboring Mississipi counties and Pensacola,Fl was already added in the Mobile CSA it would be called the Mobile-Pensacola CSA which will include 6 counties with a population of over 1.6 Million . Just like counties in Kentucky was included in Cincinatti,Oh CSA the same was talked about for Mobile's.

Mayor Sam Jones of Mobile,Al has an annexation plan for the city which will be presented some time this year .It will be a about annexing un incorporaed west,norhtwest,and southwest prtions of the county that are very close to the city which is an addition of over 85,,000 people if this is succesful the Mobile city population will be greater then 150,000 which is pridicted for the future and i dought that it ever git that low any way.If not succsessful the way that God has been blessing the city of mobile ,the county and Baldwin county with such economic properity the two would still experience population increase just as the Huntsville-Decatur CSA has experienced .Only time will tell Population increase is a positive but with increase there is crime I rather live in a city with 150,000 than to have a city thats 300,000 with an annual murder rate of 180 lives . people want growth but with it comes problems just have to be well prepared.

[jmanhsv]

This thread shouldn't be here. It's already in the Alabama forum.

[Huntsville_secede]

This thread shouldn't be here. It's already in the Alabama forum.

[Huntsville_secede]

Leaders lower BRAC estimates

Saturday, February 24, 2007

By SHELBY G. SPIRES

Times Aerospace Writer [email protected]

30% now expected to follow jobs here;money still needed

Even though fewer people may relocate to this area with military work moves, money is still needed to improve roads, expand schools and build new offices in North Alabama, local officials said Friday.

http://www.al.com/news/huntsvilletimes/ind....xml&coll=1

[HSVTiger]

the jobs will still have to be filled I believe, It just means they will be filled by people frome somewhere else.

[jmanhsv]

I'm not worried. The 10000 jobs are still coming; they just won't be filled by the same people. The anticipated residential and commercial boom will still happen. However, the region might need a bigger marketing campaign to get the word out about these jobs.

[kayman]

^^^I think a simple solution to this would be a nationwide promotional campaign by the Alabama Industrial Development Board like the State of Michigan's governmental division similiar to ours is doing toward recruiting high technology there.

[HSVTiger]

I'm not worried. The 10000 jobs are still coming; they just won't be filled by the same people. The anticipated residential and commercial boom will still happen. However, the region might need a bigger marketing campaign to get the word out about these jobs.

[Huntsville_secede]

In addition most of the growth happening now is non Brac related

[rnc]

'

Only 33 of the SMDC people came here.. they are going to have to recruit for the other 147 jobs, thats a pretty low percentage, maybe they realized Huntsville is too small and as long as its in a state like Alabama that doesnt want to do anything progressive, it will continue to be held back from its growth.

SMDC to recruit 147 after moving here

Thursday, March 08, 2007By SHELBY G. SPIRESTimes Aerospace Writer [email protected]

Agency brings 33 people from Virginia in BRAC

The Army Space & Missile Defense Command will complete its BRAC-mandated move to Huntsville from Arlington, Va., in mid-June, bringing 33 people out of 180 jobs, Lt. Gen. Kevin T. Campbell, SMDC commander, said Wednesday.

"There will be 33 faces, as we say, but we will have to recruit the balance, the 147 people," Campbell said. "It will be a worldwide search

[HSVTiger]

I imagine many long term residents of Huntsville wouldn't move to DC if their jobs did.

[HSVTiger]

"According to the general in charge, BRAC is on schedule, budget questions won't affect Redstone Arsenal, and that the Rocket City better get ready because everything is on target.

With dump trucks moving, shovels digging, and hard hats on, a pre-BRAC building is almost open.

It's the new home to part of the missile defense agency.

"We're on track. We're on schedule with what we're doing," says Lt. General Henry Obering.

What they're doing is moving onto Redstone Arsenal completely, bringing 2,240 jobs to Huntsville, 60 already moved to town."

http://www.waff.com/Global/story.asp?S=6200306

[Huntsville_secede]

New figures released this week by the U.S. Bureau of the Census found that the Huntsville metropolitan area, which includes Madison and Limestone counties, was the fastest-growing in the state between 2000 and 2006. The growth rate of 9.6 percent was not only the strongest in the state, but no other area came even close.

http://www.al.com/opinion/huntsvilletimes/....xml&coll=1

[Huntsville_secede]

New figures released this week by the U.S. Bureau of the Census found that the Huntsville metropolitan area, which includes Madison and Limestone counties, was the fastest-growing in the state between 2000 and 2006. The growth rate of 9.6 percent was not only the strongest in the state, but no other area came even close.

http://www.al.com/opinion/huntsvilletimes/....xml&coll=1

[Huntsville_secede]

I don't know if anybody has been keeping up with population growth but Huntsville metro grew about 10% between 2000 and 2006. I'm expecting to seeing higher percentages in the coming years. The fastest growing larger metro areas in American are growing between 20% and more. I'd like to see Huntsville approach that 20% mark with BRAC. Atlanta gained almost 1 million residents between 2000 and 2006. How big do you think we can become over the next 5 years? Possibly the Decatur/Huntsville metro combined will have 700K residents since likely Lincoln country and possibly even Marshall will be added. Any chance montgomery will change our tags to be the #3 county as this should already have been done?

[Shawn35816]

Any chance montgomery will change our tags to be the #3 county as this should already have been done?

[Alabadrock]

I do like being able to tell what county a driver is from. Don't know why, I just do. Anyways, I'm not sure what the system is now, but, if we stick to the old system, Madison County will always be 47. They've already dealt with this problem. Cause, Madison County has been larger than Montgomery County for a looooong time. Back in the day, the started using the numbere 83? I think, I can't remember. But, the state changed the numbering for the tags and all was resolved and every MadCo tag has 47.

As for the Huntsville-Decatur CSA having 700K in the future. It's definitely possible. That's a lot of growing to do on both Huntsville and Decatur's part. The way I see it, by 2020 to 2025, the Huntsville Metro Area will have around 500,000 to 550,000, and the Decatur Metro Area will be about 200,000 to 250,000. I'm expecting Decatur's growth to speed up. Unfortunately for Huntsville, I'm thinking that this growth will be too fast for the HSV metro to get a big enough foothold on Decatur to absorb them. In a post in one of the Decatur threads, I told about the Decatur Metro being number 2 in the state for housing cost increases. Usually, you see this going up when quality of education increases, of course more people and just so many houses, and higher paying jobs. Decatur's cost increase out paced Huntsville Metro's oddly enough.

As for cities, I think it goes like this

2010:

1) Huntsville 183,000

Huntsville is way too predictable, all these new job announcements are just keeping up enough to insure that growth doesn't start slacking.

2) Decatur 60,000

I'm expecting growth to increase ever so slightly. It has slacked in recent years, but, there are a lot of vacant homes and empty lots that are expected to be filled.

3) Madison 40,000

Madison is just odd.

4) Athens 23,000

Athens has shown signs of a potential boom in the near future. I haven't seen any evidence of it actually occuring, but, I have hope. I'm worried about what the county is going to do without Delphi. But, my guess is that the spin off from Huntsville and Madison will be enough to over compensate for the losses.

5) Hartselle 15,000

I'm looking at Hartselle's growth to be a bit of the spin off from Decatur that the metro is finally starting to experience. It's been a long time coming, but, a few subdivisions have been announced in certain areas that are closer to Decatur that are hinting at Hartselle becoming the next Madison, just on a smaller scale.

2015:

1) Huntsville 191,000

Obvious steady, predictable growth.

2) Decatur 65,000

Continued increase in growth. The current growth is about 600-700 per year, but, I think it's going to pick up to 1,000 or a little bit less than that per year.

3) Madison 46,000

Same as Huntsville. Just a little less predictable.

4) Athens 27,000

Not growing as fast, but, still moving along with the spin off.

5) Hartselle 19,000

Same situation it was in last time.

2020:

1) Huntsville 196,000

Same... gah, they're boring

2) Decatur 69,000

Growth slacking a bit, but, still pushing along.

3) Madison 50,000

Still growing, aimlessly.

4) Athens 28,500

Starting to slack a bit, a slump in all the "boom" growth that it had. Starting to lose its flare because of natural processes that aging cities go through.

5) Hartselle 22,000

People aren't wanting to live in Decatur as much because the commute is so much longer inside of the town.

2025:

1) Huntsville 199,000

Boring... will it ever change?! Maybe a slight slump, it has to happen at some time.

2) Decatur 71,000

Decatur hits a slump because there's more growth being spun off to smaller bed towns like Hartselle, Priceville, and Moulton.

3) Madison 55,000

The slight slump that occured with Huntsville aids Madison in their efforts.

4) Hartselle 26,000

Decatur hits the slump as Huntsville does. The two largest cities are starting to lag behind. Decatur is in the process of dealing with improvements in the city that should have been dealt with long ago.

5) Athens 25,500

Athens is slumping, and feeds Madison some of their old growth.

6) Priceville 10,000

Spin off growth from Huntsville and Decatur. They grabbed a bit from bleeding Athens too.

2030:

The one we're all wondering about

1) Huntsville 210,000

Huntsville's out of the slump and most of the growth has shifted east again.

2) Decatur 75,000

Growth in the city has remained stagnant, but, hey, it was only a matter of time before the city annexed Trinity and Moulton Heights.

3) Madison 56,000

What!? Madison ran out of room!?

4) Hartselle 28,000

Growth keeps chugging along after Athens bleeds all it can and Huntsville's wound has heeled. People still like living close to Decatur but not in it, which adds a bit to the growth.

5) Athens 27,000

The bleeding has stopped, but, it wasn't enough to bring it back to where it was. Madison has almost stopped growing because of a lack of room. All the excess has to go somewhere. Athens is the natural choice, yet, it hasn't really caught on yet.

6) Priceville 13,000

The last bit of Athens bleeding fell here. Madison countinues to have no room, therefore, people that commute to Huntsville want to live close to the interstate, so, they choose Priceville.

So, I think I might be underestimating Huntsville. I dunno, it's a modest guess. I'm thinking I have Decatur right on the nose. Same with Athens and Madison. Priceville may be a bit over rated, but, hey, it's really close to the interstate.

So, I think by 2030, the Huntsville metro will be at 850,000.

I also think that by 2030 the Decatur metro will be at 350,000.

I calculated this by the rough proportions of population in the metro that the largest cities contain. Huntsville Metro, Huntsville is about .5 to .75. And Decatur Metro, Decatur is about .25 to .3

Combined in one CSA, I think that the Huntsville-Decatur Combined Statistical Area would form a region with about 1.2 Million. That's a lot of people. Wow. But, it would only be enough for the second largest metro in the state. By this point in time, Birmingham-Hoover-Cullman will probably be at 1.4 to 1.5 Million.

[rnc]

I don't know if anybody has been keeping up with population growth but Huntsville metro grew about 10% between 2000 and 2006. I'm expecting to seeing higher percentages in the coming years. The fastest growing larger metro areas in American are growing between 20% and more. I'd like to see Huntsville approach that 20% mark with BRAC. Atlanta gained almost 1 million residents between 2000 and 2006. How big do you think we can become over the next 5 years? Possibly the Decatur/Huntsville metro combined will have 700K residents since likely Lincoln country and possibly even Marshall will be added. Any chance montgomery will change our tags to be the #3 county as this should already have been done?

[Huntsville_secede]

I can't figure out why growing like Atlanta would be a good thing. If this city's goal is to become the next Atlanta, I'm putting my house on the market and finding somewhere else to live. 20% growth is essentially impossible to keep up with. Expect awful traffic, overcrowded schools, understaffed police and fire departments... Every city that grows too much too fast has these problems. Huntsville would be no different. Watch what you wish for. Slow, steady growth over the long term is a good thing IMO. Short term, explosive growth is not.

[Huntsville_secede]

.

[Huntsville_secede]

Actually i'm not sure if when a county is added to a metro area that population is counted as a percentage increase or not or if just part of it is, but marshall county has approximately 80,000 residents, Lincoln County TN, 31K, Giles 31K, and Jackson County, approximately 54K. That's appoximately 195,000 people that can be added to the future because of counties added to the metro. Giles County, TN and Marshall county are the most likely to be added anytime soon.

[HSVTiger]

as of this fall the city of Madison's population passed 40,000.

[Alabadrock]

Actually i'm not sure if when a county is added to a metro area that population is counted as a percentage increase or not or if just part of it is, but marshall county has approximately 80,000 residents, Lincoln County TN, 31K, Giles 31K, and Jackson County, approximately 54K. That's appoximately 195,000 people that can be added to the future because of counties added to the metro. Giles County, TN and Marshall county are the most likely to be added anytime soon.

[jmanhsv]

Actually i'm not sure if when a county is added to a metro area that population is counted as a percentage increase or not or if just part of it is, but marshall county has approximately 80,000 residents, Lincoln County TN, 31K, Giles 31K, and Jackson County, approximately 54K. That's appoximately 195,000 people that can be added to the future because of counties added to the metro. Giles County, TN and Marshall county are the most likely to be added anytime soon.

[Huntsville_secede]

I REALLY doubt that Giles is even close to becoming part of the Huntsville metro, about 2.5% of the workforce commuted to Madison County as of 2000. Here's how counties become parts of MSAs: They must have 25% of their workforce commute to the MSA. They've been trying to get that down to 15% for years now, but who knows when that'll happen. As of 2004, here's the top 5 workforce percentages commuting to Madison County:

Limestone: 31% (30% in 2000)

Lincoln, TN: 20% in 2000, TN commuters to AL data unavailable after 2000

Morgan: 17.5% (13% in 2000)

Marshall: 13.6% (12% in 2000)

Jackson: 10.2% (7% in 2000)

Source: US Census LEHD

On the topic that started this thread: It doesn't really matter how much we grow, it's if we can sustain it. And right now, the area isn't doing a good job, especially Madison and the unincorporated areas of Madison County. East Limestone's about to get the same way. New schools, better roads, a sewer system, something resembling public transit, etc. are all needed, and there is little help coming from the state. Home rule and higher property taxes would only solve part of the problem. But even with these problems, I like how Huntsville's growing right now; we're starting to embrace the urban area, though there is still a lot of sprawl.

If we can keep the same growth rate we have now (~9-10% annually), chances are the Huntsville-Decatur area (whatever you want to call it) will hit 1 million sometime in the 2030s. Madison County will have a population in the 600,000s; Limestone will hit 100,000; Morgan will be around 150,000.