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Population Growth

According to populations by the University of Florida's Brueau of Economic and Business Research, Tallahassee's population increased by 6,826 people in 2004, and by 5,643 people in 2005. Population growth trends are presented in the Following table.

Year----------Tallahassee------------Unincorporated------------Leon County

2000-------------150,624--------------------88,828--------------------239,452

2003-------------162,310--------------------93,190--------------------255,500

2004-------------169,136--------------------94,760--------------------263,896

2005-------------174,781--------------------96,330--------------------271,111

We really are experiencing strong growth right now!! :yahoo:

-tj

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I hate to err on the negative side, but you have to take those figures with a grain of salt. Population predictions are often times overestimated. For example, I remember before the 2000 Census, the population estimates for the city of Miami for 2000 were at 376,000. However, the real numbers showed 362,470. In 1990, the city had 358,548 people, so the increase was very very small.

Current estimates for Miami for 2004 were 379,724. Time will tell if these estimates are true. Ditto with COT/Leon population estimates.

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You are right jpl02 about population estimates being wrong sometimes. These estimates come from UF's BEBR and they use a different formula than the census bureau. BEBR does say that their method is more accurate for a transient population like Florida's and I tend to believe that. The Census Bureau uses a more conservative estimate process and the same w/their hard final findings. I believe like many things that the real true lies between the two.

But I do think that these numbers do indicate there is growth in numbers happening and I think some of this is that now retirees are finding their way here. They come to places like Southwood and for many of them it's to be closer to their adult children that already live in Tally. I'd much rather have my senior citizen parents driving around Tally than on the freeways in South Florida..wouldn't you guys?

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I would, indeed Poonther.

That said, the opposite has been the case with Tallahassee's relationship to these estimates (opposite referring to JPL's Miami case). In 1999, no one could have imagined that the Census Bureau would retrun 239,452 as our county population. The University of Florida estimate was well below that. I think it had us somewhere around 225,000. They calculate their estimates based on Utility Customers, Local School enrollment, Hospital and Medical Office records and so on. I'm not saying I'm investing a great amount of faith in the accuracy of these numbers, but it does give me comfort to know that this same group that has historically under scored our population in the past, now has it growing so strongly. This is only a 5 year increase!!

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I dont doubt the grwoth one bit... quantifying it is sucha tedious task. Just take a drive, there is development everywhere. This is not the same town it was when i was 10, nor will it be when i am 30! I would hate to live in a stag town!

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Your right TJ! I had forgotten about the underestimate that BEBR made for Leon prior to the 2000 census. If anything, I think these number show a trend.

Do you have a link for these new numbers for all of Florida?

Sometimes it's just hard to believe anything is accurate that comes out of Gainesville. :rofl:

That oughta get GG in here for sure.

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Sometimes it's just hard to believe anything is accurate that comes out of Gainesville. :rofl:

That oughta get GG in here for sure.

Last time I tried to lure someone in like this I got myself in trouble! :D

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I'm proud of your city's strong growth, but one has to ask how much of that growth is attributed to retirees.

I'd say a great percentage of it is attributed to retirees, which is a great thing for Tallahassee considering we need more age balance being Florida's youngest city (median age of 26.3). The Oldie Goldies are more than welcome.

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I'm proud of your city's strong growth, but one has to ask how much of that growth is attributed to retirees.

There really isn't too many places for retirees to go here as there is in South Florida. Though I except that will be changing with the new developments aimed at retired alumni and the abundance of hurricanes down south.

I don't see as many retirees as I see college students that stay in town for whatever reason (married a local, can't find a job in thier feild, found a local job in their feild, etc). Also, it's not like the people of Tallahassee haven't been busy making new residents themselves. :lol: From what I have seen, most of the people here have larger than the usual family sizes (3 or more).

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I welcome retirees, up to a certain point, that point being..........native retirees.

I have seen the effects that retirees have bought upon South Florida. They do nothing to contribute to the local economy and place a burden on health care and other services. And, more often than not, they oppose any tax increase to fund schools, for obvious reasons.

A retiree haven also creates many minimum-wage service jobs that cater to that population. We need some low wage jobs, but our entire economy can't be based on it. Think of places like Naples, Fort Myers. EVERYTHING is geared to retirees. A co-worker of mine grew up in Fort Myers and left, simply because there is nothing for the young people to do or anywhere for them to work (other than McDonalds or a convalacent home).

We're gonna have retirees as part of our natural local population, and I say, let's not go out and attract them. I may sound biases and mean, but we don't need any more old geezers than what we have. From the ones I've seen in South Florida, most of them are rude, abnoxious and demanding. The fact that they cannot drive puts the icing on the cake. Let's not go out of our way to attract retirees. :unsure:

If we do indeed attract them, at least let's attract the wealthy ones, who are big $$$ spenders and will at least contribute some to the economy!

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I welcome retirees, up to a certain point, that point being..........native retirees.

I have seen the effects that retirees have bought upon South Florida. They do nothing to contribute to the local economy and place a burden on health care and other services. And, more often than not, they oppose any tax increase to fund schools, for obvious reasons.

I agree w/you about retirees jpl02. As I'm sure you know AARP is one of the most powerful lobby groups in the State. I don't think Tally is being overwhelmed w/too many retirees yet. I also think many of our retirees are those from other parts of the state that in their retirement years want to escape all that is South Florida. I also think it helps that many of them have married children here that have kids in school which could help w/taxes and support of schools and such.

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Chuuuuuch! :lol: The oldie goldies here in Tallahassee can't drive either. They act like they're sightseeing, going 10 mph below the speed limit, when there's NO traffic. I simply go around them. Granted, some old people can drive with the best of them, but not many.

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May 2006 Update

Year----------Tallahassee------------Unincorporated------------Leon County

2000-------------150,624--------------------88,828--------------------239,452

2003-------------162,310--------------------93,190--------------------255,500

2004-------------169,136--------------------94,760--------------------263,896

2005-------------174,781--------------------96,330--------------------271,111

2006-------------178,000--------------------98,200--------------------276,200

Not Bad for Mid-Year!

:thumbsup:

Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Tallahassee Leon County Planning Department.

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A retiree haven also creates many minimum-wage service jobs that cater to that population. We need some low wage jobs, but our entire economy can't be based on it. Think of places like Naples, Fort Myers. EVERYTHING is geared to retirees. A co-worker of mine grew up in Fort Myers and left, simply because there is nothing for the young people to do or anywhere for them to work (other than McDonalds or a convalacent home).

We're gonna have retirees as part of our natural local population, and I say, let's not go out and attract them. I may sound biases and mean, but we don't need any more old geezers than what we have. From the ones I've seen in South Florida, most of them are rude, abnoxious and demanding. The fact that they cannot drive puts the icing on the cake. Let's not go out of our way to attract retirees. :unsure:

If we do indeed attract them, at least let's attract the wealthy ones, who are big $$$ spenders and will at least contribute some to the economy!

In Naples, they have a big problem with the influx of wealthy retirees increasing the cost of housing. The min.wage earners can't afford to live in the city, and gas makes it to expensive to commute, so local businesses have trouble finding employees.

The article from Naples Daily News is kind of long, but retiree growth looks like a big problem down there.

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May 2006 Update

Year----------Tallahassee------------Unincorporated------------Leon County

2000-------------150,624--------------------88,828--------------------239,452

2003-------------162,310--------------------93,190--------------------255,500

2004-------------169,136--------------------94,760--------------------263,896

2005-------------174,781--------------------96,330--------------------271,111

2006-------------178,000--------------------98,200--------------------276,200

Not Bad for Mid-Year!

:thumbsup:

Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Tallahassee Leon County Planning Department.

We should hit 180,000 to mid 180s this year. If this rate continues.....dare I say 190,000 by 2008.

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What defines a city as second tier according to the U. S. Census Bureau? Are we anywhere near that seeing as we will hit 200k by 2010?

It depends on who is doing the defining. It's kind of a moving target but in general, think of it as being bigger than 350K and less than 2M. Acutally a pop of around 1M is a good goalpost. Other factors than population also come into play. These include transportation investment, distribution facilities, bandwidth, etc.

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As GotS stated 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier city definitions are highly subjective and it depends on what you are defining and how you are defining it. IMO we are definitely a 3rd tier city, but a lovely one at that and will continue to be for a long time. In FL IMO only Miami/South FL is a 1st tier city while Tampa, Orlando and Jax(just recently arrived in this tier) are 2nd tier cities. All the rest to me are 3rd tier and below cities.

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New Census Estimates Show 13 Florida Cities Gain, 4 Lose

By Taurean J. Lewis

UP{sodEmoji.{sodEmoji.|}}Tallahassee -- The United States Census Bureau today released its updated Population figures for Incorporated Places over 100,000. These figures were based on the July 1, 2006 estimations. Among the most interesting findings in the report are the numbers of large cities in the U.S. now seeing their central city populations decline. Among those cities, the most drastic change has occurred in New Orleans, LA which saw its population plummet from 484,674 in the year 2000 to 223,388 in July of 2006, resulting in a net loss of 261,286 or 53.9% in its population since the Hurricane Katrina disaster.

Among the states with large gains were Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and California.

Florida Focus

Port St. Lucie, a city with whom Tallahassee has been competing for jobs saw Florida’s most dramatic gain with a net increase of 54,990 people or 61.9% of its former self. Miramar increased 48.7% to 108,072 an increase of 35,412. Cape Coral, a city in South Florida increased 47.8% (48,930). Cape Coral is now said to be at near capacity.

Orlando Florida ranked #42 in the nation for growth, coming in with an additional 27,827 residents since 2000, making its new population 220,186. Miami gained 11.5% (41,612) now up to 404,048. Tampa rose 9.7% (29,440) its new population is 332,888. Pembroke Pines and Coral City, Florida each saw a 9.1% increase in their populations up 12,570, and 10,861 respectively. Fort Lauderdale is growing at 8.9% up from 170,693 just 7 years ago to 185,804. Jacksonville comes in at 794,555, having seen a net increase of 58,949 since the 2000 census. Broward county’s Hollywood, home to one of Florida’s few Casino Gambling resorts, increased 4.6% from 139,443 to 145,794.

Of the 258 cities in the study, Tallahassee’s growth was ranked at 115, with the Census bureau reporting an increase of 4.4% in our population. Tallahassee in 2000 had a base population of 152,913. This population increased by 6,693 residents to 159,012 in July of last year.

Pompano Beach, fell in just behind Tallahassee with a 4.2% increase in population, from 100,205 to 104,402.

Michigan Sliding

Other major cities on the decline include Detroit, Michigan’s largest city with a heavy manufacturing sector. This city’s decline is not unique to Michigan, as it appears most major cities in that state have seen a decline in recent years. In 2000 the population in the City of Detroit was 951,291, as of the latest estimate it is 871,121. Flint, MI in 2000 had 124,943, new estimate is 117,068. Lansing, MI saw a 4.3% decline in population from 119,373 to 114,276. Warren City, MI lost 2.6%, falling from 138,247 to 134,589. Grand Rapids fell 2.4% from 197,800 to 193,083, and Michigan’s college town fell 1% from 114,394 to 113,206.

Michigan wasn’t the only state to see its core-city population’s fall. California saw drops in 7 of its cities, the sharpest decline occurring in San Francisco, a city whose population fell 4.2% over the reporting period by 32,692 people. 4 Ohio cities made the losers list with a 6.9% decline in Cleveland, losing 33,159 people.

Florida, despite its strong growth, also saw 4 cities lose in numbers over the study period. Among those Hialeah, a city in the Miami area lost 4.1% of its population (9,299), Gainesville, known mainly as Florida’s college town, lost 2.5% (2,808), Clearwater a city on the Southwest Coast of Florida lost 1.6% (1,705), and St. Petersburg is down a very modest 243 people from 2000.

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Good report TJ! I hadn't seen that release from the Census and now thanks to you I don't have to! :)

Something for folks to keep in mind: these are city population numbers, not County or Metro populations thus it's easier for some cities adjacent to large open parcels to grow faster than those older "land-locked" cities. Port St. Lucie to the west is surrounded by open land, so their fast growth doesn't surprise me at all. Nor do the Miramar numbers which had vacant land to its west and got a huge boost from those "fleeing" Dade but still wanted to be near it. It also explains the loses of people in places like Clearwater where the city is locked in and has no room to grow.

Also these are census numbers which historically always under-estimate FL populations. The better growth numbers for FL always come from the BEBR at U of F. But these are fun to look at.

Interesting to note that FL doesn't have a city w/ one million in population even w/Jax combining w/Duval County. The big 3 (CA, TX and NY) all have at least one city over a million.

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I've been in deep thought today about a few things relating to Tallahassee's growth. What do you think of us using Jacksonville as a model for growing our city? It makes no sense for us to ignore the Largest city in our state, located in North Florida, the closest city to Tallahassee that's bigger than us. We share many common characteristics in geography, and culture. A better relationship between the two cities, would also seem to be mutually beneficial.

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