Lansing, MI Population Prediction for 2010

[RustTown]

There is an interesting subject being discussed in the Grand Rapids forum concerning population. I'd like all of your guys opinions on what Lansing's population will be in 2010. Below, I'll provide some population trends and estimates courtesy of the United States Census. Though their estimates are not always accurate, and sometimes flat wrong, they are all we have to go on right now. Some information:

# Loss

1970: 131,403 (peak population)

1980: 130,414

1990: 127,321

2000: 119,128

2004: 116,941

% Loss

1970-1980: -0.7%

1980-1990: -2.4%

1990-2000: -6.4%

2000-2004: -1.8%

It seems barring some unforseen factor, that the population loss has slowed considerably, but I'm not sure if we will be able to reverse it. I predict anywhere from 112,000 to 120,000. I'm just not sure. If places like East Village start selling better, I'll be more optimistic.

[woodsstephene]

It seems to me like the population loss in the city proper has (or at least will be) levelled out. I think Lansing is likely to gain a bit of ground in the next couple years, or stay about even, but there's just not a way to attract a real influx of people until towers etc. start going up. The lofts and townhouses downtown may be enough to counteract the loss of people elsewhere in Lansing to suburbs and new developments in EL etc., but I really don't see them being enough on their own to bring people back to Lansing in terms of net numbers.

Having said that, I think the metropolitan area is both more important and much healthier in terms of population growth. City population isn't as important to a region's perception and image as metro area is. Grand Rapids, for instance, is hovering only around 200,000 but has a metro area of 1 million. Even though its city size itself is relatively small, only in a league slightly above Lansing, its metro area pop. puts it on par with cities like Oklahoma City etc., who have large city populations and relatively small metro areas.

To tie the two ideas together, I think towers and large developments depend more on a metro area size than a city's population, and as such the concern should be not only for Lansing proper but the entire area. When we add to the metro we add to the likelihood of downtown getting some more towers, and Lansing itself starting to boom in terms of population.

Having said all that, I think the real key is to draw people to both Lansing and East Lansing, and develop a core within and between those two areas. I think once the metro area passes 500,000 things will really take off, and Lansing will start to get noticed on a wider scale.

[hood]

I'm guessing about 108,000 to 112,000 people, but I'm leaning towards thee 108. I do agree though that the size of the metro is more important than the size of the city, however if the city continues to lose population it can only mean one thing: abandoned buildings. Abandoned buildings hurt a city in a limitless number of ways, from making more people want to leave, added crime and poorer image. Also, the metro is hovering around 500,000 right now, I'd say there is even a slight chance that it could hit that mark in 2010.

[woodsstephene]

I see what you mean about abandoned buildings, but even if Lansing does continue to lose (to a certain extent) I think most of those buildings can be filled by retail and office space as long as the metro keeps growing. As long as there is a growing workforce, commercial business and retail can move in to fill any vacant housing. I don't want it to sound like I'm totally fine with Lansing losing population--I just don't think it would be the end of the world if the city's population doesn't rebound right away. As long as the big picture is positive I think the city is in good shape.

[hood]

I don't think Lansing would face any serious problems related to population loss unless it dips below 100,000, then I could see some serious problems arising.

[GR8scott]

I would guess somewhere between 115-120K, there seems to be somewhat of an urban renewal going on and it may expand with more developments in the next couple years.

I've always though that Lansing was kind of shafted being wedged in the corner of the county bordering with 2 others, and why it doesnt include patches on the west side and northside inside Ingham county, that would add some population and make sense to be Lansing city limit.

[hood]

There were pushes to annex the remaining portions of Lansing Township in the 50's I think, they were sho down though. I think that would add 20,000-30,000 residents, but I'm not sure.

[RustTown]

Lansing Township (all of its parts) is only a bit over 8,000 and shrinking. Annexing Lansing Township is no longer an option seeing as how they are holding on to their retail strips on the eastside like there is no tomorrow. It's really unfortunate they have so much of the land around Frandor, because you can instantly tell that it is township by it having little sidewalks, terrible curbs...it just looks decrepit.

[hood]

I never thought Lansing Twp. was that small. I wasn't thinking so much of the eastern part of Lansing Twp, I was thinking of the western portion, which is much larger and has no shortage of nice neighborhoods and well maintained streets. It will certainly grow, especially with the 3,000 units planned for Eastwood and the possiblity of two large golf courses being redeveloped.

[RustTown]

I'm pretty sure the western half (the largest half) is shrinking, as well, though much slower than the east. Hopefully, they can fill up the area around Eastwood sooner rather than later. As for Red Cedar, it is a possibility that the city will keep this land and seek a developer, themselves.

[hood]

I wouldn't complain if the city were to seek their own developer, it may be a good idea. All I want for that land is that it either be relatively high density, lwo to mid rise apartments (3-6 floors) and townhouses/rowhouses or that it be high end houses, also that it have a gaslight village style mixed use building along Michigan. As for Waverly I think that it should be developed into just about anything, but if it is houses, they should be built densely, like Hawks Nest, and with some retail, even if it is strip mall style.

[GR8scott]

I don't really understand how a township like that, which is choped up and probably heavly depends on Lansing for services and might not have much of a sense of its own community, how Lansing would not be able to annex it. Kalamazoo has a simular situation but the devided K-township is a lot larger and has some of its own services like police and fire. Lmichigan, you kind of explained why its hard for a city to annex other cities but wouldn't it be much easier in this case to anex the township?

[hood]

I know the city has tried before to annex it, but that failed and there has been no talk as long as I've paid attention. Lansing Twp also has a lot of it's own services, it has police, fire, recycling, trash(I think), road crews and sewer.

[RustTown]

Scott, the 1963 Michigan Constitution has made it nearly impossible for cities to annex townships by creating "charter townships" which pretty much function as cities, but without having to incorporate. Most townships around major Michigan cities chartered themselves to heavily discourage annexation. Municipalities can now only deal in "landsharring agreements," which amount to annexation, really.

Lansing Township will be almost impossible to "land share" with, now, seeing as how they are developing their own "downtown" around the new Eastwood Town Center, and the west side of the township holds most of the residential tax base, and the township hall, so that's out of the question. Giving up any part of the township, in fact, would damage Lansing Township, and their leaders and citizens will never do that. Plus, like all townships, they pay for lower taxes because of the limited services they provide which they simply pay Lansing to do. If I was a leader of the township, I wouldn't want any of my land annexed either. Our state government has really done alot to give townships leverage, and for worse, IMO.

[RustTown]

I was just surfing the net and came across an interesting page on the Lansing Regional Chamber of Commerce that has some population predictions done by the Tri-County Regional Planning Commission:

http://www.lansingchamber.org/econ_dev/econ_rp.php#1

They seem to predict that the city will actually reverse the loss, and be at 123,223 in 2010. They are awfully optimistic, but I probably trust them more than I do the census seeing as how they are local and take into account things a huge, national government body would probably overlook. I'm still predicting anywhere from 112,000 to 120,000, though. It still waits to be seen if this current housing boom will produce a sustainable movement within the city. IMO, that will have to include more than just what can happen downtown. We're going to need to see some more East Village-type developments (in size) if we hope to offset the population loss in the other neighborhoods.

Some other predictions for 2010 by the Tri-County Regional Planning Commission (2000 increase/decrease):

Region: 458,599 (+2.4%)

1. Lansing: 123,223 (+3.4%)

2. East Lansing: 52,380 (+12.6%)

3. Meridian Township: 40,751 (+4.2%)

4. Delta Township: 34,897 (+17.6%)

5. Delhi Township: 25,250 (+11.9%)

One thing I'm unsure of is exactly when were these numbers drafted. I think it may have been just a year after the 2000 Census which may make these numbers less meaningful. For instance, just above that category, Tri-County gives a population estimate of their own of 2004 of around 456,000 which seems to match up with the current census numbers.

[hood]

The reason I doubt Lansing will increase in population anytime soon is because when I drive through neighborhoods there seems to be more and more empty houses. The last drive I notices some serious problems on was North St. There are just numerous abandoned buildings and quite a few houses along or just off that stretch, if your ever bored I think a photo collection of that area would be cool. One thing I noticed were two large houses tightly boarded up just west of Turner Dodge, I wonder what happened there.

[RustTown]

Actually, there are three or four houses back there that are boarded up, I think. It looks really creepy. The small court/street is Dodge River Drive, I believe. But, other than those near the intersection with Grand River, there isn't much abandonement along the small North Street.

Again, I don't expect any population gain, either, but it will be a nice surprise if the loss only turns out to be a thousand or two instead of another 8,000+ loss over the 90's. What I find comfort in about Lansing's loss is that it almost seems to be directly connected to the loss of blue-collar GM jobs that are pretty much all bled out of the city meaning that we probably won't be seeing any more mass migrations out of the city.

[hood]

Actually, there are three or four houses back there that are boarded up, I think. It looks really creepy. The small court/street is Dodge River Drive, I believe. But, other than those near the intersection with Grand River, there isn't much abandonement along the small North Street.

While looking down some of those side streets to the north I noticed a few boarded up houses, I'll bet there are plenty of other empty ones, that area was the worst in the city for MANY years and it has a long way to go.

I think that there will be a harsh population loss in 2010, maybe as many as 8,000. But after that I expect population to even out or gain. If it doesen't then we have to start worrying, but I don't think another loss of 8,000 would hurt too bad.

[RustTown]

Which neighborhood are you talking about?

[hood]

I don't know, but when I was driving I could see several boarded up houses within a couple blocks of North St on the north side of it. It was either just north or just east of Turner Dodge. When I get a chance I want to drive through there and get a better look.

[hood]

After looking at a map I guess it must be down James St or Washington. I already know of a few severely dilapidated houses that were fixed up this area. Here are a few examples:

217 e Dwight (fixed-up now)

209 Reasoner

214 Reasoner

223 E North

300 W North (my favorite lol)

There are plenty more, but the city just updated its assessors site software so I can't get anymore images than what I already had on my computer.

[RustTown]

I've been through the area directly north of the Turner-Dodge, and the area is literally under 10-blocks in size, and pretty industrial, as well. From everything I know, it's not all that crime-ridden, and not incredibly dilapidated, rather, it's more old and poor than anything else. At its worst it's simply become an irrelevant neighbohood. I assume the area (more likely a subdivision) originally existed to service the heavily industrial areas around Northtown/Old Town. Now that the industrial aspect of the neighborhood has declined, or moved up Grand River, there really isn't much there.

[hood]

I think it does have pretty high crime by lansing standards, roughly the same as the Center St and Liberty/Pearl St areas nearby, it's basically just behind the Eighth/Hosmer neighborhood when it comes to crime. And from what I've seen its in pretty rough shape, largely due to fact that it is post-industrial. One building that is really nice to see get fixed up is the one ACD.net is doing, I don't know if you've seen it recently but it was looking really, really nasty when I went by it a few weeks ago. Here are another couple of pics, as with the ones above they are all within that small 8 or 9 block neighborhood.

1603 Turner

1701 Turner (the blue house in the background is tha same as the one above on Dwight St.)

[Phizzy]

1. Lansing: 123,223 (+3.4%)

2. East Lansing: 52,380 (+12.6%)

3. Meridian Township: 40,751 (+4.2%)

4. Delta Township: 34,897 (+17.6%)

5. Delhi Township: 25,250 (+11.9%)

Those numbers (except for Delhi Twp) do seem optimistic compared to the Census Bureau estimates:

                              Census  Estimate     Change

2000 2004 # %

1 Lansing city 119,378 116,941 -2,437 -2.0%

2 East Lansing city 46,606 46,678 72 0.2%

3 Meridian charter township 39,107 38,674 -433 -1.1%

4 Delta charter township 29,590 30,877 1,287 4.3%

5 Delhi charter township 22,496 24,822 2,326 10.3%

EDIT: Fixed Lansing's population.

[hood]

Those numbers aren't very realistic. Lansing had over 119,000 in the 2000 census, not 114,000. I can almost guarantee that Meridian will not lose population and with the massive development in the northern tier EL will almost certainly gain a lot by 2010, even the Chamber of Commerces' estimates may be conservative. Delta will almost certainly gain more than what the census bureau predicts. Overall I agree with the Chamber of Commerces estimates, excet for Lansing, I really don't see it gaining by 2010.

I found a "rendering" of the building ACD.net is fixing up on Signature Associates: