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Signature Tower

NewTowner

By NewTowner
in Nashville

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Shuzilla Whistle-Stop

Shuzilla

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Obviously they don't think it is reasonable or the investment would be there. It's hard not to notice when a developer says he is going to build one of the tallest buildings in the world and if foreign investment was going to happen it would have happened by now. Building investors are more interested in what is going on in Dubai, Europe, and cities in Asia.

In regards to the dollar falling (its in free fall) one has to look at the reasons behind it. It's a combination of excessive spending, borrowing, and living beyond our means. (it doesn't help that we also purchase huge amounts, including oil from overseas now) This isn't going to change until some tough decisions are made in this country to substantially curtail some of this activity and a lot of people won't be happy about it. Will it happen in 3 years, I don't know. This is why the investment isn't here. Nobody knows.

I don't think you can say that foreign investors have seen this project and passed on it in legion. The US RE market has been red hot up to two years ago, BUT primarily in places near coasts in cities and states with internationally recognised places. Looking at the US RE market in 2004, Nashville was not so much on the radar. Nashville's RE appreciation has been an also-ran... until now. Now the coastal/desert/rockies annual double-digit appreciations that foreign money has gone into have turned into disasters, while in Nashville prices have plateaued just at the time subprime lending lost favor, keeping this market from boiling over. And I don't think we have overbuilt the downtown condo market like in so many other cities, but what do I know? Nobody really knows Nashville's capacity to absorb condos.

My guess is that residents of Signature Tower would be wealthy enough to live within their means. However, folks who would buy into ST are most likely to need equity from a property they are selling wherever they are moving from. Selling your $500k home to move into ST means your prospective buyer is in need to sell his $250K home to move up into your old diggs, and so on. The current illiquidity of RE is a major problem with selling high-end RE at this time, even if the ability for the buyer to make the mortgage is beyond questioning. Hopefully, the 2 to 4 year ST construction time may well see a RE turnaround.

Tony should be actively courting foreigners who may be looking at the US because of the dollar's slide. Even moreso than any past attempts. This year may well see both RE and the dollar bottom, so the potential upswing for both thereafter would be a major selling point to investors. Add to that pitch that our RE is not overheated, money previously going to Vegas or Miami may look here. I'm just saying taylor a sales pitch to an interested audience and some will buy it.

The world is changing. There are housing bubbles popping in Spain and Australlia, and others will follow. The Euro is falling almost with the dollar. Europe and China also import most of their oil; in fact, a greater percentage of consumption than we import. Will China de-peg, and what consequences await? The liquidity crisis is a challenge to most of the world's central banks; that being said, many folks don't want their money sitting in banks losing value from inflation. There will be investors in any climate in need to buy something to hold, and there's not enough gold for all the money that needs to be sheltered. RE investment in America isn't shooting fish in a barrel anymore, but it can provide a decent return for investors attuned to that game.

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Flowers Unincorporated Area

Flowers

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sorry but i don't see foreign investors or middle east lenders coming to st's rescue. and frankly, i think we should probably be asking ourselves if that would be a good thing anyway. in the face of weak demand for this project why should we hope for some unsuspecting debt or equity source to come to the rescue ? wouldn't that just be trading a little more skyline for the potential of a financial disaster in 3-4 years if st collapsed as a failure ? i'd only like to see it built if the developer can reasonably demonstrate there is demand for it. betting wrecklessly on future buyers or exchange rates to line up seems irresponsible and wreaks of wanton desperation for a tower that seems obviously outsized and ill-suited for this market given what we've seen here over they last few years.

and remember, if demand is ultimately insufficient the sponsors will lose their invested capital regardless of what exchange rates do. also, betting on what the dollar will do in the future is not the sure thing that some of you suggest. Many respected economist think we're in for a long period of dollar deterioration due to our weakening economy preventing the fed from raising rates (which generally helps the dollar). remember when rates were almost 0% ? it could take a few years of adjustment before the fed stops cutting them and every drop will most likely continue to punish the dollar.

as to the whims of foreign capital, i think any looking to make real estate bets in the us will focus on the hardest hit large markets like miami. because of all the insane speculation that occurred in these areas this capital will have attractive buying/investing opportunities in places that are poised to bounce back much more quickly from the bottom of the trough, wherever that ultimately proves itself to be.

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titanhog Metropolitan Area

titanhog

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He should have stayed with 700 feet and 55 stories as a mixed use project with hotel, condos, office, retail, and apartments. 1057 feet and 70 stories is bold for any American city now let alone Nashville. NYC and Chicago are the only exceptions. Had he stayed with the original plan he announced in 2004, this project would be finished and open now.

I will feel a little sick if he has to go back to the 700 foot model, but it would be better than nothing at all.

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Plasticman Hamlet

Plasticman

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I will feel a little sick if he has to go back to the 700 foot model, but it would be better than nothing at all.

He really can't do that now because it would drastically shorten the building, diminish any uniqueness it had outside of Nashville, and ultimately the penthouses and other high-end, upper floor units would not be worth nearly as much. This would void the contracts because essentially it is a totally different building with totally different units.

Either he has to sell them as-is or the hotel idea may work. With the hotel idea, the top floors don't change at all thus the contracts are likely still valid. And he would obviously bump up any lower floor buyers who have signed on.

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Otenyuda Unincorporated Area

Otenyuda

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and there's not enough gold for all the money that needs to be sheltered.

^LOL! Gold will just re-value so that it can shelter all the money that people want to shelter in it. If there is a mass exodus from dollars into gold/silver you would see the price-per-ounce climb to $5,000 or something rediculous. But remember investors, panics ofting have sharp peaks, so you will know it's time to sell when the gold panic is the #1 news story. Eventually people will have to dump their gold for currency to make purchases and investments - and you don't want to be holding gold when that happens.

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FromParkAveToTN Hamlet

FromParkAveToTN

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I have to agree that a 55 story building would look much nicer in Nashville than a 70 story building. There's just something about this building at 70 stories that just doesn't do it for me in the middle of the other buildings downtown. I think GT would be more successful if he had stuck to his original plan of 55 stories. This building would probably be under construction by now. I think greed has lead this project down the wrong path.

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jcoop Whistle-Stop

jcoop

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maybe I am not remembering correctly, but wasn't the 55 story proposal going to be only residential? I know that there was a very early idea of having office space as well, but I didn't think that ever really got very far. Obviously neither did a 55 story version that was just residential...

anyways, my point being that with it being scaled back as I remember, he still would have had around the same number of units. My memory is leading me to think that the addition of the hotel was the primary reason it was bumped up to the 70 stories. but someone please correct me if that is wrong

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Plasticman Hamlet

Plasticman

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THat was correct. The original design had no crown and was exactly 55 / 700 feet with a mix of everything. Then the design was changed (thankfully) and the crown was added brining the height to about 850' with as many as 750 condos (per some reports). Then the decision was made to add a ten floor hotel to the bottom bringing it to 65 floors and 1,047'. Then the latest and most lasting is somehow it got to 70 floors and 1,057'. The last word I heard was 70 / 1,030'.

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Plasticman Hamlet

Plasticman

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That's not the original design. The actual original design had no spire (flat top) and was 700' to the roof. THe next design had the spire but was 55 floors and roughly 850' tall. The picture you posted is the first desing of the 1,047' / 65 floor version. The changes since then have been with the walls and with the fins on the crown plus an extra 10 feet and extra 5 floors.

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elvigy Whistle-Stop

elvigy

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Hmm, the original is not bad, imho. Not great, but I definitely wouldn't call it unattractive. Why all the revisions though? And I hesitate to even call them revisions-the current design is totally different than the original. More a complete overhaul than a revision. Was it done to try and attract more buyers, assuming the original wasn't sparking as much interest as hoped? Or was it revised for other reasons?

If this has been addressed somewhere in the previous 126 pages of this thread, my apologies.

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Nashville_maestro Whistle-Stop

Nashville_maestro

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Hmm, the original is not bad, imho. Not great, but I definitely wouldn't call it unattractive. Why all the revisions though? And I hesitate to even call them revisions-the current design is totally different than the original. More a complete overhaul than a revision. Was it done to try and attract more buyers, assuming the original wasn't sparking as much interest as hoped? Or was it revised for other reasons?

If this has been addressed somewhere in the previous 126 pages of this thread, my apologies.

It was panned by the metro building council and therefore wasn't approved.

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Plasticman Hamlet

Plasticman

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That looks pretty awesome. The building reminds me of something out of Gotham city.I just stumbled upon this forum a few minutes ago and I am curious to the likelyness of this actually being built in Nashville. Would anybody mind summarizing what's happening with this project?

It has hotel on the bottom 14 floors (Hotel Palomar which is under the Kimpton Hotel umbrella - a very upscale hotel) and from floors 15 to the 70th floor penthouse are all condo units ranging in price from $400,000 to the 6 million dollar penthouse which takes up a whole floor. The developer is a Mr. Tony Giarratana who also brought the 30 story Veridian to fruition in Nashville.

The financing and the marketing methods are the problems. The developer has said he must sell roughly half the units to acquire financing. He has sold a little over 1/4 of the units so far which isn't bad but isn't good for having nearly two years to acquire them. And with the real estate bubble bursting it has had negative impact not just on this project but nationally. The lenders aren't taking any risks so the developers have to prove the project now more than ever.

In addition to the lending woes, in the pasts nearly two years since the basic final design was unveiled (May 2006) we've seen very gimmicky marketing instead of the type of marketing that a ultra-high end and completely groundbreaking project of this magnitude deserves. Everything from balloon rides to show the view from the tower to free cars with purchase, almost IMO the type of things you'd see with a mobile home lot trying to sell mobile homes. I mean...what's next...dancing clowns and face painting? The cars are Lexus which are super nice and these type of things may draw a few buyers who were on the fence and needed just a nudge. But I'm just not sure this will translate to the sales he needs. But I'm not the expert that we all hope the Mr. Giarratana is and has historically proven himself to be.

So as of right now, the developer realizes the clock is ticking on the existing contracts and is now considering reducing the number of condo units and adding more hotel floors. From what some have said, the current groundbreaking is set for May?

Someone correct me in all this if I'm wrong.

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barakat Burg

barakat

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That's not the original design. The actual original design had no spire (flat top) and was 700' to the roof. THe next design had the spire but was 55 floors and roughly 850' tall. The picture you posted is the first desing of the 1,047' / 65 floor version. The changes since then have been with the walls and with the fins on the crown plus an extra 10 feet and extra 5 floors.

I didn't say it was the original design. I just posted a rendering of the new design I hadn't seen before since this is the Sig Tower thread.

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Plasticman Hamlet

Plasticman

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Thanks plastic man! Yeah I would say 56 stories of condominiums is quite a challenge in this market.

Welcome to the site (forgot to say that).

Mr. G. has several things going for him:

1. He did bring the Veridian in as mentioned so he has a recent record of success on highrise projects.

2. The downtown condo market in Nashville is just now being tapped and is in no way saturated. This means that the city still has potential even now.

3. The customers for such high-end units would be those who are somewhat immune to the current situations. In other the words anyone who would spend several mill on a condo isn't someone who is sitting around waiting for his other home to sell. While that might be true for the 400,000 dollar units, I would think it isn't true for the million plus ones.

4. A determination that is admirable.

5. Groundbreaking will likely breed many more sales.

So I am still trying to be optomistic with the knowledge that IMO he should do the following:

A. Stop the gimmicks and focus on selling units to those who are looking for units. Running ads on the screens at Hockey games won't cut it and are a waste of money.

B. A more national and international publicity campaign.

C. Offer more incentives nationwide to the upper class real estate brokers.

D. Find more investors who realize once the project is under construction, the sales will ramp up. I believe many people don't believe it will be built or can't comprehend Nashville getting such a structure so they aren't willing to sign on the dotted line until concrete pours.

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hotshoe Unincorporated Area

hotshoe

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The developer is a Mr. Tony Giarratana who also brought the 30 story Veridian to fruition in Nashville.

Sorry, I thought Novare had developed the Veridian and the other project in Nashville that is similar to the Avenue here in Charlotte. Am I mistaken ?

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