Signature Tower

[jcoop]

Well sorry guy, but I believe I did too. After all if it wasn't called drawing a conclusion then there wouldn't be any question about it and we would all just be telling you that you were right.

Sorry if I'm taking offense to you saying that, but let people make their point without tearing it down. You have a valid point, and it concerned you. Fair enough. My point was that based on how many holes the article seemed to contain it is hard for me to side with your conclusion from what was written.

While you say you think we would have heard from William or the project team if some sales had happened, I say I believe we would have heard from William if in fact he had gone 0 for 500 or whatever the number is. It seems absurd to me to be having a debate or what we are trying to infer from a small little written piece that seemed nothing more than coverage of the opening and a little insight into what the sales center has to offer and what kind of traffic it has seen.

I still believe that there is a good chance it wasn't something that William was concerned with writing about or possibly Tony G. was not wanting to share at that time. Yes, those possibilities could be good or bad, so all I'm saying is let's wait and see. No one was trying to tell you that you were specifically wrong Jeeper, we were simply offering the other side.

[Jeeper12]

Well sorry guy, but I believe I did too. After all if it wasn't called drawing a conclusion then there wouldn't be any question about it and we would all just be telling you that you were right.

Sorry if I'm taking offense to you saying that, but let people make their point without tearing it down. You have a valid point, and it concerned you. Fair enough. My point was that based on how many holes the article seemed to contain it is hard for me to side with your conclusion from what was written.

While you say you think we would have heard from William or the project team if some sales had happened, I say I believe we would have heard from William if in fact he had gone 0 for 500 or whatever the number is. It seems absurd to me to be having a debate or what we are trying to infer from a small little written piece that seemed nothing more than coverage of the opening and a little insight into what the sales center has to offer and what kind of traffic it has seen.

I still believe that there is a good chance it wasn't something that William was concerned with writing about or possibly Tony G. was not wanting to share at that time. Yes, those possibilities could be good or bad, so all I'm saying is let's wait and see. No one was trying to tell you that you were specifically wrong Jeeper, we were simply offering the other side.

Fair enough. Just be kind if WW eventually confirms that the res count was about 150 after the first week.

[jcoop]

Fair enough. Just be kind if WW eventually confirms that the res count was about 150 after the first week.

No problem Thanks for understanding the clarification.

[Hankster]

I just finished checking the Signature Tower site for reservations and noticed that there has been an update. The total number of reservations has increased by 5 from the last time I checked about a week ago. Most of the new reservations are on floors 40-54. The number of reservations on floors 13 -27 actually dropped by 2. This is pretty much in line with what Jeeper has suggested, if this tally is actually up to date. I plan to find out more for myself soon as I plan to visit the Sales Center with the forum group this coming Saturday.

[Plasticman]

I just finished checking the Signature Tower site for reservations and noticed that there has been an update. The total number of reservations has increased by 5 from the last time I checked about a week ago. Most of the new reservations are on floors 40-54. The number of reservations on floors 13 -27 actually dropped by 2. This is pretty much in line with what Jeeper has suggested, if this tally is actually up to date. I plan to find out more for myself soon as I plan to visit the Sales Center with the forum group this coming Saturday.

I saw the same thing. I'm still not clear why the top floors are not being listed with reservations at this time. To me it would seem like a net 3 is positive. The big question is about actual sales. Are these new ones actual sales or just more reservations?

[monsoon]

I believe the wording of the the reservation form that was in place when all of the excitement about this tower sprung up, stated the reservations would be void after March 31. Has that now changed?

[Jeeper12]

I believe the wording of the the reservation form that was in place when all of the excitement about this tower sprung up, stated the reservations would be void after March 31. Has that now changed?

Last I heard a week or so ago they planned to begin converting reservations to contract this week.

[Hankster]

I saw the same thing. I'm still not clear why the top floors are not being listed with reservations at this time. To me it would seem like a net 3 is positive. The big question is about actual sales. Are these new ones actual sales or just more reservations?

Actually, it is a net 5. It is (-2) on floors 13 - 27, (+3) on floors 28 - 39, (+4) on floors 40 - 54, and no change on floors 55 - 63. As you stated, the top floors are not being listed. The last info I had on those were 7 of 10 were reserved.

[elguapo731]

I believe in Tony G.'s last interview he mentioned that a number of the penthouses were already purchased while a certain number were resereved and I believe there were only 3 still left for reserve / purchase.

I don't remember the exact number purchased, but I believe it was three, because I remember thinking, "well there's 20 million toward the project"

[Duke32]

*REMOVED*

[Plasticman]

**POST REMOVED**

Really? Do you have a link to this information or something that would substantiate this claim?

[Skyscrapergeek]

Are you sure this means it is getting shorter? Do you have a new official height? We heard about some alterations to the actual number of floors but that the actual height will remain the same.

[Duke32]

*REMOVED*

[Plasticman]

Are you sure this means it is getting shorter? Do you have a new official height? We heard about some alterations to the actual number of floors but that the actual height will remain the same.

The first approved design was at 65 floors , 1,047 feet. If it goes back to that then no harm no foul.

[elguapo731]

I agree, dropping down to 65 from 70 is no biggy. It will still be freaking huge. I'd rather see it dropped a few floors than never built. Wish I could have made the meeting this week. Sounds like Tony G. was preped for the visitors.

Did anyone get any info of actual sales / conversions????

[Jeeper12]

*REMOVED*

Sounds like someone on the project team had his wings clipped. I've enjoyed Duke32's insights but this is understandable if the developer hadn't yet had a chance to "manage" this change and the obvious negative implication (we offered too many units) to the public.

Given all the premature publicity on ST, an apparent lack of sales (I still contend that 75-80% of soft reservations generally washout when it comes time to convert to hard contracts) and no apparent momentum (sounds like it's still 150 reservations afterall), I think this project team is going to become ever more cloaked in secrecy and damage control internally and with the media. And to be sure lopping off 3 floors is no magic bullet; I've given Tony a fair rash but I never doubted that he was smart enough NOT to make the project (most thought was too big) any bigger than was necessary in order for it to be financially viable. Obviously, the haircut will add more pressure to margins that probably aren't holding up to lender/partner scrutiny anyway.

Please don't bother bashing me for my observations or opinions on this one, ok ? If the ST ever gets lift off in anything close to it's current form, by this developer, I'll arrange to eat a plate of crow at a place and at a time of the board's choosing.

[Kheldane]

I just wish they had left it at 55 stories and kept the prices lower, they could have sold all the units by now. Perhaps the older design would have been more profitable? Look at how narrow the tower is now, it doesn't even take up the whole lot, and that's a relatively small lot. They should have designed the building to get maximum utility out of the lot, put the pool on top like viridian (seriously, who wants to swim in a pool only 3 or 4 stories removed from the street? "Hey look a view of a parking garage!"). They should have made the units smaller and cheaper.

What are they asking? $479,000 for 900sqft ? That's $532 per sqft. But who's going to pay almost $500k - that's a limited population. They should have droped the per-unit sqft down to 450 total, and jacked up the price per sqft to $600, resulting in a unit price of $270,000 for a cracker-box-in-the-sky. There is a much larger of population of urban hipsters/young professionals that need no more room than a common hotel room with a kitchen. They could have sold every unit by now...for more profit!!

[Plasticman]

And this may be much ado about nothing.

[Rural King]

I just wish they had left it at 55 stories and kept the prices lower, they could have sold all the units by now. Perhaps the older design would have been more profitable? Look at how narrow the tower is now, it doesn't even take up the whole lot, and that's a relatively small lot. They should have designed the building to get maximum utility out of the lot, put the pool on top like viridian (seriously, who wants to swim in a pool only 3 or 4 stories removed from the street? "Hey look a view of a parking garage!"). They should have made the units smaller and cheaper.

What are they asking? $479,000 for 900sqft ? That's $532 per sqft. But who's going to pay almost $500k - that's a limited population. They should have droped the per-unit sqft down to 450 total, and jacked up the price per sqft to $600, resulting in a unit price of $270,000 for a cracker-box-in-the-sky. There is a much larger of population of urban hipsters/young professionals that need no more room than a common hotel room with a kitchen. They could have sold every unit by now...for more profit!!

I have to say that makes a lot of sense and I agree with pretty much everything you said. I'd rather have a good solid project at 55 stories get built then a "dream project" that may languish indefinitely and never materialize. I still hope this can go forward, as it is a very bold project that would be great for the city, but it may just not be feasible at this point in time. On the other hand, we have waited for years on WES and finally appears close to moving forward.

[producer2]

I just wish they had left it at 55 stories and kept the prices lower, they could have sold all the units by now. Perhaps the older design would have been more profitable? Look at how narrow the tower is now, it doesn't even take up the whole lot, and that's a relatively small lot. They should have designed the building to get maximum utility out of the lot, put the pool on top like viridian (seriously, who wants to swim in a pool only 3 or 4 stories removed from the street? "Hey look a view of a parking garage!"). They should have made the units smaller and cheaper.

What are they asking? $479,000 for 900sqft ? That's $532 per sqft. But who's going to pay almost $500k - that's a limited population. They should have droped the per-unit sqft down to 450 total, and jacked up the price per sqft to $600, resulting in a unit price of $270,000 for a cracker-box-in-the-sky. There is a much larger of population of urban hipsters/young professionals that need no more room than a common hotel room with a kitchen. They could have sold every unit by now...for more profit!!

You are totally missing the point of who the market is for this building. Yes it is a limited market but this is the ONLY building that caters to that market. The Hotel product does not want to be in a building of young "hipsters" they want mature people with MONEY. I have been fortunate enough to stay at the Palomar in San Fransisco and believe me you don't go to the restaraunt for a casual dinner. This is Mortons on steroids. People used to scoff at the Hermitage hotel and their pricing as well but they have a nice market and they stay pretty full. This will take a little time because it is not an easy decision to spend that kind of money, but then you don't get the ammentities with the Viridian or Adelicia that you get with the Siggy either. There is a market and they will come, one buyer at a time. It was never going to sell like the Icon but then when it does, there also won't be 40% of the units back on the market when it opens.

[Plasticman]

You are totally missing the point of who the market is for this building. Yes it is a limited market but this is the ONLY building that caters to that market. The Hotel product does not want to be in a building of young "hipsters" they want mature people with MONEY. I have been fortunate enough to stay at the Palomar in San Fransisco and believe me you don't go to the restaraunt for a casual dinner. This is Mortons on steroids. People used to scoff at the Hermitage hotel and their pricing as well but they have a nice market and they stay pretty full. This will take a little time because it is not an easy decision to spend that kind of money, but then you don't get the ammentities with the Viridian or Adelicia that you get with the Siggy either. There is a market and they will come, one buyer at a time. It was never going to sell like the Icon but then when it does, there also won't be 40% of the units back on the market when it opens.

Actually those are very good points and an angle that makes sense. This building is a Mercedes to Rolls Royce product and is mainly targeting those with mega-bucks vs. other condo projects which are aimed at the middle class urban professionals with more of a Lincoln to Lexus financial ability. Less expensive products have a much wider market thus naturally sell quicker.

If any floors are removed, I would still place my bets on this project just returning closer to its original floor count and 1,047' height.

[monsoon]

^Well maybe that is the reason it apparently has not been doing well in terms of attracting serious buyers. In most cities, where skyscrapers are a necessity, the most expensive, exclusive places are the low rise places with few units. Day to day living in a highrise is not particulary convenient and that is why you don't see that many residential towers taller than 20-30 stories.

It's going to be difficult to impossible to build a buidling of this size and only target it towards the Rolls Royce crowd. And I don't think the developer is doing that anyway. If those units shown in the photos above are representative of what is going to be built then I think he is missing the mark. They are nice, but that stuff looks like stock higher end stuff from a Lowes Home Improvement store and is targeted to the middle class professionals. The mega rich don't bother with stuff such as this and instead buy a shell and have a designer come in and build it out from scratch. Obviously the signature tower isn't going after this market except for possibly the penthouses. The problem is there are not that many in the middle class willing or able to pay for $500+ sq/ft to live.

Which brings us to the investors. Many of these condo projects around the country have in fact been fueled by investors and that is why the market is starting to sour. Eventually this money comes back out of the market and goes elsewhere.

[Plasticman]

^Well maybe that is the reason it apparently has not been doing well in terms of attracting serious buyers. In most cities, where skyscrapers are a necessity, the most expensive, exclusive places are the low rise places with few units. Day to day living in a highrise is not particulary convenient and that is why you don't see that many residential towers taller than 20-30 stories.

It's going to be difficult to impossible to build a buidling of this size and only target it towards the Rolls Royce crowd. And I don't think the developer is doing that anyway. If those units shown in the photos above are representative of what is going to be built then I think he is missing the mark. They are nice, but that stuff looks like stock higher end stuff from a Lowes Home Improvement store and is targeted to the middle class professionals. The mega rich don't bother with stuff such as this and instead buy a shell and have a designer come in and build it out from scratch. Obviously the signature tower isn't going after this market except for possibly the penthouses. The problem is there are not that many in the middle class willing or able to pay for $500+ sq/ft to live.

Which brings us to the investors. Many of these condo projects around the country have in fact been fueled by investors and that is why the market is starting to sour. Eventually this money comes back out of the market and goes elsewhere.

Maybe, but what we don't know about this project far outweighs what we do. In other words, we can make assertions based upon the existing data but there is a lot of proceedings that are not being released. We don't really know if things are going well or not. The website isn't showing much change but that could just be their not updating it or not being willing to release new data at this time.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Jeeper12]

This building is a Mercedes to Rolls Royce product and is mainly targeting those with mega-bucks vs. other condo projects which are aimed at the middle class urban professionals with more of a Lincoln to Lexus financial ability. Less expensive products have a much wider market thus naturally sell quicker.

I think you're simply parroting what Tony must be telling everyone now to justify his meager reservation count. What else can he say three weeks after his grand opening and on the heals of a year of great local and national coverage ? I know Tony's is quite the salesman but I think he's kind of run out of magic tricks to hold the public's attention.

Believe it or not even those with megabucks (sans a few eccentrics here and there) demand value for their purchase dollars. And I don't believe the "tallest building" angle resonates with these folks to the exclusion of all other considerations. The top of the food chain in condo buyers typically doesn't venture into a submarket early to pay enormous premiums until that market is much more established. Currently, I'll bet you could count the $1 million plus units in downtown on one hand. And from what I hear Tony's $1,250,000 Cumberland PH continues to languish after well over a year on the market; remember the well publicized "project penthouse" features a year ago ? I've also heard from realtors that several of the Viridian PH's have either not sold well or are back on the market. See my point ? Church Street in Nashville is not yet an established playground for the Rolls Royce crowd. I think Tony was both naive and arrogant to think he could transform it instantly with one project.

And relative to your contention that he is only pursuing the uber rich I think you only have to look at the bulk of the units he is offering to see that the overwhelming majority of his floorplans are clearly not suitable for this demograghic as a primary residence. So, if you're theory were true then he'd have to count on a huge volume of the Rolls Royce crowd plopping down $550/sf plus an HOA fee of at least double the $.30 to $.35/sf/mo. rate of all the Terrazo's, Adelcia's, Viridian's, etc. for what essentially will be a crash pad for occasional evenings out to TPAC or the Symphony. And how many times will these folks be willing to go to the Palm or Morton's ? Remember, we're not talking about a Jack's, Rippy's, or even a Merchant's kind of crowd. Do the math, they'd be much better off taking down the Presidetial Suite at the Hermitage whenever they needed it. The only way to get this kind of crowd to look past these economics would be the allure or big appreciation over the duration of their ownership. And considering all the bad national buzz and the fact that his preconstruction prices are already nearly double the value of most of this crowd's primary residence, I just have a hard time believing he'll be able to get enough of them excited to get started.

[Jeeper12]

Maybe, but what we don't know about this project far outweighs what we do.

This sounds like more of a defense of religion than that of some condo project More seriously to your point, the developer can only hold back info so long. At some point the lack of answers to the most significant fundamental questions (partner, lender, and sales updates) become as meaningful in assessing a project's prospects as hard information. Developers can't have it both ways and use the media at every turn for even the most trivial events and then take the quiet route relative to anything of substance. It's great that this developer was so apparently open about his secret plans with all the forum visitors but if his plans were so persuasive and made so many of you confident of a positive outcome I see no reason for him not to share the same reassurances with the public that he's trying to reach out to. Of course, one reason not to do this might be that he would face more difficult lines of questioning outside the polite setting of your tour than perhaps he'd experience elsewhere or in the media (except for CP, of course).