Return to Number One

[northernbizzkit1]

It's been a few years since Memphis held the title of Tennessee's largest city and metro area (we currently only have the former)...but do you think this title could come back our way? Tunica seems to have a bright future along with Desoto and Fayette county. Now, I realize that the two counties are flourishing due to some white flight from Shelby County, but still...they're getting more out-of-towners moving in as well...could all of these factors play into a Memphis MSA upsurge?

[sleepy]

I doubt it. Memphis grows at about half the rate of Nashville. Last census bore that out--Memphis grew at 12 something % while Nashville grew at about 25%. And the latest estimates show Nashville gaining 120,000 from 2000-2005 while Memphis gained 60,000.

Although from what I've read, you wouldn't know where all those people are coming from in DeSoto and Fayette counties. I think there's too many of them to be all coming from Shelby. Too, east Shelby county is apparently full of new home development.

I could see Tunica perhaps taking off as a resort type area with homes for Yankee retirees. I suspect that could lead to a lot of growth.

Also, since a very significant portion of most metros' growth is occuring through international immigration--I would suspect that all the construction about to take place in Tunica will lead to many more Mexicans coming to the area. I read somewhere that Mexicans half built Tunica back in the early 90's.

Also, in the Daily News there was an article that 7500 Katrina evacuees are living in Memphis, so I guess they're in for the long haul. I suspect as well that there are several thousand evacuees in DeSoto.

So, I don't really see anything on the horizon that would make the Memphis metro larger than Nashville, with the exception of adding more counties--Coahoma, Lafayette in MS and Haywood in TN.

Memphis will most likely just toddle along at the national growth rate.

[SoundScan]

The U.S Census Bureau recently released its 2005 figures for the 100 fastest growing counties in the U.S. Three Tennessee counties were on the list: Williamson, Rutherford, and Montgomery--all three of which are in Middle Tennessee and are part of Nashville's MSA.

[sleepy]

The U.S Census Bureau recently released its 2005 figures for the 100 fastest growing counties in the U.S. Three Tennessee counties were on the list: Williamson, Rutherford, and Montgomery--all three of which are in Middle Tennessee and are part of Nashville's MSA.

No, only Williamson made the list.

http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php

Most of Memphis' metro growth is in Mississippi which accounts for DeSoto being no. 32 nationally, although from 2000-2004, Fayette Co. was the fastest growing in TN.

[jmduke]

I think Memphis proper will remain TN's largest city for quite some time. The city of Nashville is growing very slowly if at all (depending on which Census estimate you read) so don't expect any changes there.

As for metro area, don't expect Memphis to overtake the Nashville MSA anytime soon. It's interesting, Nashville had a major head start in the 1980s getting counties lumped into its MSA. Correct me on my timing, but I think Fayette Co. was not added to Memphis' MSA until the mid-90s, and Marshall, Tate, and Tunica counties weren't added until the 2000 Census or even shortly thereafter. I can't think of any other counties that could be realistically added to the Memphis MSA as Panola and Coahoma, MS and Mississippi Co., AR are not sufficiently economically integrated into the area.

Memphis MSA's growth is fueled more by births exceeding deaths, and to a lesser extent immigration, rather than migration which is driving Nashville. That's unfortunate as that trend makes it harder to relocate companies and people to the Memphis area as they see it as a lack of fresh ideas. However, maybe a few more IP and Harrah's-style relocations and Medtronic-style expansions can help us in the long run.

[SoundScan]

No, only Williamson made the list.

http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php

Most of Memphis' metro growth is in Mississippi which accounts for DeSoto being no. 32 nationally, although from 2000-2004, Fayette Co. was the fastest growing in TN.

Different list. I'm quoting this recently released list that shows growth from 2004-2005:

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/20...op05-table1.pdf

I also cite:

http://blogs.knoxnews.com/knx/silence/arch...tn_counti.shtml

While Fayette may have headed the list from 2000-2004 as a matter of percentage, it's interesting to note that both Williamson and Rutherford gained nearly and more than, respectively, the entire population of Fayette county in the same period. While an increase of perhaps 6,000 residents over a 5 year period is certainly worth noting for a county of Fayette's size, it doesn't really have the same effect on an MSA as a combined increase of nearly 90,000 residents between Williamson, Rutherford, and Montgomery counties.

[sleepy]

Different list. I'm quoting this recently released list that shows growth from 2004-2005:

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/20...op05-table1.pdf

I also cite:

http://blogs.knoxnews.com/knx/silence/arch...tn_counti.shtml

While Fayette may have headed the list from 2000-2004 as a matter of percentage, it's interesting to note that both Williamson and Rutherford gained nearly and more than, respectively, the entire population of Fayette county in the same period. While an increase of perhaps 6,000 residents over a 5 year period is certainly worth noting for a county of Fayette's size, it doesn't really have the same effect on an MSA as a combined increase of nearly 90,000 residents between Williamson, Rutherford, and Montgomery counties.

It's interesting that the census has two different lists.

And no one said that Fayette's population growth was the same as the other counties, just that its rate was higher. Of course, the real story in the Memphis msa is the growth of northern MS, which is included in nothing concerning fast growing TN counties.

[Bears]

I think the only way we'll grow is if Memphis starting getting higher paying jobs. True, Memphis has a low cost of living but people don't really pay attention to that and mostly pay attention to the numbers on the paycheck. But if we start getting higher paying jobs, cost of life might also start going up.

[cdarr]

I agree with jmduke that Memphis will remain the largest city in the state, and Nashville will remain the largest metro area.

Nashville's MSA continues to benefit greatly from the inclusion of Murfreesboro. Murfreesboro is not really a Nashville suburb. In many ways, it is a autonomous community with its own employment centers. I would imagine that most of the people who live in Murfreesboro actually work there rather than getting on I-24 and rolling into Nashville. I think that what's happening in Murfreesboro is very similar to what you see in Jackson - a micropolitan area that is its own self-contained market. If you were to subtract Murfreesboro from the Nashville MSA, or add Jackson to the Memphis MSA, the two metro areas would be much more evenly matched in population.

Nashville has two other advantages that will continue to drive higher growth rates relative to Memphis - its status as the state capital, and the presence of more colleges and universities. Other disadvantages that Memphis has - poorly trained/motivated workforce, racial divisions, image - can be overcome with time. And one perceived disadvantage - higher crime rate - is overstated because Nashville's crime rates are starting to rival those of Memphis.

While Memphis may have to be content with being the state's #2 metro area for the rest of our lifetimes, its no big deal really. You can still be #2 in your state and be considered a "major city" - just ask Kansas City, Tampa, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Houston and San Francisco.

[Bears]

more colleges and universities.

While Memphis may have to be content with being the state's #2 metro area for the rest of our lifetimes, its no big deal really. You can still be #2 in your state and be considered a "major city" - just ask Kansas City, Tampa, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Houston and San Francisco.

I think that colleges and univeristies in Nashville could help Memphis as well. Memphis has alot of advantages w/ amazingly short shipping times, three diffrent pro business state tax structures, and lots of cheap, developable land. As I said, if we get good paying jobs, people will go to school in Nashville and move here for employment like students in Philly or Boston might move to NYC to work. How many people from Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Mississippi State end up in Memphis?

And I wouldn't worry about being the #2 metro in TN. We are still #1 in MS and AR

[satalac]

Nashville's MSA continues to benefit greatly from the inclusion of Murfreesboro. Murfreesboro is not really a Nashville suburb. In many ways, it is a autonomous community with its own employment centers. I would imagine that most of the people who live in Murfreesboro actually work there rather than getting on I-24 and rolling into Nashville. I think that what's happening in Murfreesboro is very similar to what you see in Jackson - a micropolitan area that is its own self-contained market. If you were to subtract Murfreesboro from the Nashville MSA, or add Jackson to the Memphis MSA, the two metro areas would be much more evenly matched in population.

murfreesboro has one key difference than jackson. it's only 30 miles away from nashville while jackson is 90 miles away from memphis. it's well within the msa of nashville. you are right about it being very similar to jackson though.

[sleepy]

There was an article somewhere--CA? Business Journal?--about a year ago that stated that wages per job in Memphis were the highest in the state. The problem, though, was that Memphis has a relatively high unemployment rate, plus many who aren't even in the labor force.

So, it might not be so much a factor of attracting high paying jobs, but of workforce improvement.

[sleepy]

murfreesboro has one key difference than jackson. it's only 30 miles away from nashville while jackson is 90 miles away from memphis. it's well within the msa of nashville. you are right about it being very similar to jackson though.

Well, considering that one little finger of the city limits of Memphis has now snaked a good 25 miles from the MS River to Fayette County, the two are getting closer!

[Bears]

There was an article somewhere--CA? Business Journal?--about a year ago that stated that wages per job in Memphis were the highest in the state. The problem, though, was that Memphis has a relatively high unemployment rate, plus many who aren't even in the labor force.

So, it might not be so much a factor of attracting high paying jobs, but of workforce improvement.

Really? I didn't know that. I lived in both Memphis and Nashville and Nashville was more expensive to live in so I thought wages had to be higher. There are only 649 homes that cost a million dollars or more in Memphis but when I searched for that article, I found a CNBC article that said Memphis' housing market is undervalued.

Nashville has 1,250 million dollar + homes.

http://www.tennessean.com/government/archi...ent_ID=67793031

The terrain probably has something to do with it.

[satalac]

Well, considering that one little finger of the city limits of Memphis has now snaked a good 25 miles from the MS River to Fayette County, the two are getting closer!

good point. haha. how long do you think it will be until jackson merges into memphis's msa? is memphis growing pretty rapidly to the east?

[Bears]

good point. haha. how long do you think it will be until jackson merges into memphis's msa? is memphis growing pretty rapidly to the east?

Between Belz outlet mall (where Memphis sprawl ends) and Jacksons Airport exit (where Jacksons sprawl ends) is about 60 miles down I-40. So its about an hours drive. Memphis is growing east but I think Jackson is growing north right?

[Lexy]

Nashville's MSA continues to benefit greatly from the inclusion of Murfreesboro. Murfreesboro is not really a Nashville suburb. In many ways, it is a autonomous community with its own employment centers. I would imagine that most of the people who live in Murfreesboro actually work there rather than getting on I-24 and rolling into Nashville.

Oh, I live in Murfreesboro and the traffic on I-24 westbound in the morning and eastbound in the afternoon is rediculous. Most of Murfreesboro works in Nashville. Take a look at commuting patterns and you will see that. Rutherford County wouldn't have been included in the Nashville MSA had the patterns not shown that Murfreesboro and Rutherford County are dependant on Nashville for the sum of its jobs. Murfreesboro is hardly an employment center when compared to places like downtown Nashville and Williamson County. Most of the economical growth here is in the service industry.

[Hankster]

And I wouldn't worry about being the #2 metro in TN. We are still #1 in MS and AR

Very true. And, of course, it was the largest metro in 3 states until Nashville passed it recently. I would imagine that only one other Metro area in the country could say that...New York City.

[MidTenn1]

Very true. And, of course, it was the largest metro in 3 states until Nashville passed it recently. I would imagine that only one other Metro area in the country could say that...New York City.

Cincinatti!

Edited: On the other hand, Chicago-Gary is the largest CSA/MSA in Indiana.

My bad.

[satalac]

Oh, I live in Murfreesboro and the traffic on I-24 westbound in the morning and eastbound in the afternoon is rediculous. Most of Murfreesboro works in Nashville. Take a look at commuting patterns and you will see that. Rutherford County wouldn't have been included in the Nashville MSA had the patterns not shown that Murfreesboro and Rutherford County are dependant on Nashville for the sum of its jobs. Murfreesboro is hardly an employment center when compared to places like downtown Nashville and Williamson County. Most of the economical growth here is in the service industry.

i feel your pain lexy. if you ever see a black saturn coupe fly by you at 95 mph, make sure and wave.

[Lexy]

i feel your pain lexy. if you ever see a black saturn coupe fly by you at 95 mph, make sure and wave.

LOL! Was that you??? J/K

[Rural King]

Between Belz outlet mall (where Memphis sprawl ends) and Jacksons Airport exit (where Jacksons sprawl ends) is about 60 miles down I-40. So its about an hours drive. Memphis is growing east but I think Jackson is growing north right?

Yes, Jackson is heading north towards the Gibson County line at a pretty good rate, and might start heading east some if the area around Pringles Park were to be developed as I have heard speculated (new mall, commercial ventures, more residential, etc, -mostly non-substantiated as of now-).

I think it will be a good while before Memphis and Jackson become a single shared metro.

[Bears]

Cincinatti!

Edited: On the other hand, Chicago-Gary is the largest CSA/MSA in Indiana.

My bad.

Chicagoland now reaches into WI too.

[Hankster]

Cincinatti!

Edited: On the other hand, Chicago-Gary is the largest CSA/MSA in Indiana.

My bad.

I was refering to being the largest in 3 states, which Memphis used to be. Cincinnati isn't the largest Metro area in Ohio. By this definition, Chicago is the largest Metro area in Indiana. So Cincinnati is only the largest Metro area in one state, Kentucky.

As far as I know, the Metro area of Chicago is only in 2 states, but it might extend into Wisconsin. If it does, the Chicago is the largest Metro area in 3 states. New York is definitely the largest Metro area in New York New Jersey, and Connecticutt.

[cdarr]

Oh, I live in Murfreesboro and the traffic on I-24 westbound in the morning and eastbound in the afternoon is rediculous. Most of Murfreesboro works in Nashville. Take a look at commuting patterns and you will see that. Rutherford County wouldn't have been included in the Nashville MSA had the patterns not shown that Murfreesboro and Rutherford County are dependant on Nashville for the sum of its jobs. Murfreesboro is hardly an employment center when compared to places like downtown Nashville and Williamson County. Most of the economical growth here is in the service industry.

Well, I was speculating, but Murfreesboro does seem to have some industry of its own - State Farm, International Paper, Heatcraft, Pillsbury, etc. Plus it has it's own major university, with at least a decent number of students and faculty residing in Murfreesboro, rather than commuting.

My opinion may be rooted in the fact that I remember Murfreesboro as a fast-growing city 20 years ago, when there was much more of a gap between it and then-emerging suburbs in Smyrna and LaVergne. Murfreesboro was thought of as a distant city, more like Clarksville or Cookeville rather than Brentwood or Hendersonville.