Does anybody feel that Wilmington, NC metro will soon merge with Myrtle Beach?

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Wow, I did not know Horry County was that huge. Brunswick is a pretty large county too.

[NcSc74]

The only way would for one of the cities/counties to be the dominate economic power in the region. As it stands New Hanover/Brunswick have their own industrial based economy and Myrtle has the resort/seasonal economy. There isn't any middle ground. The two would have to take up more of the others economic base and that way the growth would creep together. However as RDU has shown just because two cities are close does not mean they will be lumped in to one MSA. Maybe in some years down the line the CSA will become recognized but as of right now the two are apart in terms of economics and growth.

[TLT]

The only way would for one of the cities/counties to be the dominate economic power in the region. As it stands New Hanover/Brunswick have their own industrial based economy and Myrtle has the resort/seasonal economy. There isn't any middle ground. The two would have to take up more of the others economic base and that way the growth would creep together. However as RDU has shown just because two cities are close does not mean they will be lumped in to one MSA. Maybe in some years down the line the CSA will become recognized but as of right now the two are apart in terms of economics and growth.

Wilmington would more likely be lumped together with Jacksonville than Myrtle Beach in a CSA. Actually Wilmington and Jacksonville were in the same metro area until 2000. There is more of a chance of the two of them growing together since the completion of the Northern Outer Loop (interstate 140). There are plans for a lot of development near the loop in the northern part of New Hanover and Southern Pender County, but then again as you have pointed out look at the RDU.

[NcSc74]

Wilmington would more likely be lumped together with Jacksonville than Myrtle Beach in a CSA. Actually Wilmington and Jacksonville were in the same metro area until 2000. There is more of a chance of the two of them growing together since the completion of the Northern Outer Loop (interstate 140). There are plans for a lot of development near the loop in the northern part of New Hanover and Southern Pender County, but then again as you have pointed out look at the RDU.

I remeber reading an article a while ago that the southeast shore of NC would soon grow together if the promise of natural gas deposits off shore were realized.

[TLT]

I remeber reading an article a while ago that the southeast shore of NC would soon grow together if the promise of natural gas deposits off shore were realized.

Has anyone heard anything new about the search for narural gas of the shore of North Carolina?

[lma1973]

I for one, hope this will never happen. It would be one long god-awful strip mall between Wilmington and Myrtle and would destroy tons of wetlands, salt marshes, marine estuaries and wildlife that make this region so unique.

[PlazaMidwoodGuy]

In answer to the original question of this thread: I certainly hope not - for many many reasons!

[pack-man]

It will be difficult due to the US 17 corridor veering away from the beach at the NC/SC border. Connectivity from roads will always keep the brunswick county beaches somewhat isolated. US17 will never explode commercially like in SC due to its corridor location. With I-74 soon to be built(not really soon) this will improve the areas connectivity, but will also route a lot of people driving through brunswick on their way to Myrtle around US17 helping to maintain it from blossoming beyond control like in N. Myrtle.

[TLT]

The two metro areas will probably never merge, but the distance between the two urban areas should shrink considerable over the next decade or so. There was an article in the Wilmington Star News a few months back that said if all the houses that are planned in subdivisions for the Leland area were built and sold in the next 10 years, the population of Leland could possible come close to 100,000 people. If you have not traveled between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach on hwy 17 in the last year or so, you will be amazed at the amount of residential and commercial development that has taken place in Northern Brunswick county. This fact plus the planned interstate and the extension of the Carolina Bays Parkway from Myrtle Beach could spur a lot of development around the state line up through Oak Island, Sunset Beach, Shalotte etc. If the international port is built that could also be a catalyst for even more development. The two urban areas may not merge but the miles of rural country roads between the two will shrink to maybe 10 or 15 miles?

[ChiefJoJo]

THere is a ton of development in Brunswick--a friend of mine moved to a neighborhood near NC 133 recently... the issue may be with the amount of wetlands and sensitive watersheds in that area--the development will never extend all the way to SC. It's just not possible--to wet and low.

Also that interstate (I-74) will never happen--not at least in our lifetimes. It's a nonsensical boondoggle project dreamed up by politicians and developers. Even studying it is a waste of time. Carolina Bays and US 17 improvements have been made and will likely continue until eventually the length in Brunswick Co may become an expressway or freeway (no signals). That is a legitimate project that will evenutally be needed.

[TLT]

THere is a ton of development in Brunswick--a friend of mine moved to a neighborhood near NC 133 recently... the issue may be with the amount of wetlands and sensitive watersheds in that area--the development will never extend all the way to SC. It's just not possible--to wet and low.

Also that interstate (I-74) will never happen--not at least in our lifetimes. It's a nonsensical boondoggle project dreamed up by politicians and developers. Even studying it is a waste of time. Carolina Bays and US 17 improvements have been made and will likely continue until eventually the length in Brunswick Co may become an expressway or freeway (no signals). That is a legitimate project that will eventually be needed.

Where do you see interstate 74 ending? I know parts of the interstate are complete as far as Rockingham and a section is under construction as far east as Maxton to just south of Lumberton. I know a lot of interstates have a way of getting complete to a certain point and just seem to stop no matter how much planning goes into it. I know interstate 140 around Wilmington next phase of construction is to begin in the next couple of years which will bring it to hwy 74-76 in Brunswick county.

There are unfunded plans on NC DOT's TIP books to bring 74 to "interestate standards" between Whiteville to Wilmington to end at the Wilmington bypass or interstate 140. I think that may be a more realistic ending to interstate 74 considering all the wetlands along the current planned corridor in Brunswick County. What do you see as the future of interstate 74?

[ChiefJoJo]

The only viable route IMO would be to run it along existing US 74 into Wilmington (upgrade to interstate stds). That could be a long term scenario that might actually be implementable, but probably not for 30 years.

[TLT]

The only viable route IMO would be to run it along existing US 74 into Wilmington (upgrade to interstate stds). That could be a long term scenario that might actually be implementable, but probably not for 30 years.

You seem very knowledge about road projects in this area. I have seen some of your past posts on the subject. Let me ask your opinion on two things;

Do you think the international state port will happen in South Port, and what effect might that have on road projects in Brunswick/New Hanover counties?

What are the chances of the Cape Fear Skyway toll bridge/highway being built?

I think both of these would have a big impact on growth and development in Brunswick county between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach.

[ChiefJoJo]

You seem very knowledge about road projects in this area. I have seen some of your past posts on the subject. Let me ask your opinion on two things;

Do you think the international state port will happen in South Port, and what effect might that have on road projects in Brunswick/New Hanover counties?

What are the chances of the Cape Fear Skyway toll bridge/highway being built?

I think both of these would have a big impact on growth and development in Brunswick county between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach.

The new port? Probably a good chance, given that the Wilmington port has a weakness in that it's ~40 miles upstream from the ocean--that has to be dredged regularly to keep things clear for shipping. Also, the Gov is from that area and supports it, and that's always a good thing. Then you have the growing demand for cargo to the east coast. The project seems to have a lot of support, but...

The major hurdle would be the environmental study on the impacts of the new port to the river and ecosystem. It may be hard to justify to the various agencies who permit these projects (Army Corp of Engineers, EPA, DENR, etc) that the state can't get the same shipping capacity by upgrading the existing Wilmington port, *and* that if built, the new port wouldn't hurt the plants, animals, and water quality of the river. That's going to be a tough sell.

The Cape Fear Skyway is probably many years away. I don't think there is much demand for it right now, as the traffic on the Mem Bridge still isn't too bad. Keep in mind, the skyway could cost as much as $900M, and that number will only rise going forward. The project must be financed with tolls that would need to cover most of the cost, and right now the numbers don't look favorable. There is also a potential problem with lots of environmental issues with this freeway as well... human impacts (homes), wetlands, streams, etc. If it's ever built, it will probably be 20+ years... that's just one man's (semi-educated) opinion.

[CapeFearRiver10]

http://www.ncturnpike.org/pdf/Cape_Fear_Map_Large.pdf

Heres an link of where the Cape Fear Skyway will be located.

[TLT]

The new port? Probably a good chance, given that the Wilmington port has a weakness in that it's ~40 miles upstream from the ocean--that has to be dredged regularly to keep things clear for shipping. Also, the Gov is from that area and supports it, and that's always a good thing. Then you have the growing demand for cargo to the east coast. The project seems to have a lot of support, but...

The major hurdle would be the environmental study on the impacts of the new port to the river and ecosystem. It may be hard to justify to the various agencies who permit these projects (Army Corp of Engineers, EPA, DENR, etc) that the state can't get the same shipping capacity by upgrading the existing Wilmington port, *and* that if built, the new port wouldn't hurt the plants, animals, and water quality of the river. That's going to be a tough sell.

The Cape Fear Skyway is probably many years away. I don't think there is much demand for it right now, as the traffic on the Mem Bridge still isn't too bad. Keep in mind, the skyway could cost as much as $900M, and that number will only rise going forward. The project must be financed with tolls that would need to cover most of the cost, and right now the numbers don't look favorable. There is also a potential problem with lots of environmental issues with this freeway as well... human impacts (homes), wetlands, streams, etc. If it's ever built, it will probably be 20+ years... that's just one man's (semi-educated) opinion.

Thank you, very interesting analysis from a person who I think is more than semi-educated on the subject . There is one thing that might make a difference on the Cape Fear Skyway Bridge, IMO, the expansion of the Wilmington Port which has just completed the first phase in April. It seems the folks at the port authority expect the containers units at the port to go from the present rate of 149,000 20 ft container units a year to 560,000 container units a year by 2012, when the last phase of expansion is completed. That would put a real strain on the Memorial Bridge which currently handles nearly 65,000 trips a day. The new bridge would take the port traffic around Wilmington to either 74 on the way to Charlotte's inland terminal or I-40 and I-95 in the other direction.

It would be wonderful if the schedule for the Skyway Bridge the NC Turnpike Authority actual happens, I know that would be a rare thing for NC DOT. The schedule calls for the Skyway Bridge to have construction contract awarded in fall of 2009 and open to traffic in 2015. The environmental studies are to be completed by summer 2008 (draft study) and the final report spring of 2009. Having the governor from your area does sometimes help things along.

[pack-man]

this bridge will be a monster. i would imagine something equivalent to the new bridge in Charleston, SC. It will have elevate to the same height as that bridge. I would imagine a suspension bridge would be in order with multiple lanes. the cost will continue to skyrocket on this project. however, if this gets built, it will be very impressive for NC.

[Creasy336]

After reviewing the growth between both the Wilmington and Myrtle Beach areas, I am convinced that area WILL be connected along the coastal areas of Brunswick county, although most of this development will not be visible from US 17 for quite sometime. Anyone who doesn't agree look at the area of Brunswick county east of US 17 near the coast and tell me that Myrtle Beach development will not merge with Wilmington's if it already hasn't....Now as far as the area becoming one, then the answer is no, it will not happen anytime soon. IMHO now is a good time for Horry, Brunswick, and New Hanover counties to start getting on the same page as far as rail & bus transit, dense smart growth, conservation of the area's natural beauty, and a highway system that benefits the area as a whole, not just Myrtle Beach.

[NcSc74]

After reviewing the growth between both the Wilmington and Myrtle Beach areas, I am convinced that area WILL be connected along the coastal areas of Brunswick county, although most of this development will not be visible from US 17 for quite sometime. Anyone who doesn't agree look at the area of Brunswick county east of US 17 near the coast and tell me that Myrtle Beach development will not merge with Wilmington's if it already hasn't....Now as far as the area becoming one, then the answer is no, it will not happen anytime soon. IMHO now is a good time for Horry, Brunswick, and New Hanover counties to start getting on the same page as far as rail & bus transit, dense smart growth, conservation of the area's natural beauty, and a highway system that benefits the area as a whole, not just Myrtle Beach.

I can see a CSA spring up in the future. However there would have to be a focus city. Myrtle has major econmic power in season while Wilmington takes care of the industrial side of things. I think it would be cool to see a Ft. Lauderdale/Daytona region on that part of the coast. Like I said thought that is waaaay off in the future. Lets wait and see how the International terminal and its related industry performs. After that I see big things for the area. Now what would the name be? Anyone want to take a stab at a name. Just for you reality freaks the name thing is just for fun.

[CapeFearRiver10]

I can see a CSA spring up in the future. However there would have to be a focus city. Myrtle has major econmic power in season while Wilmington takes care of the industrial side of things. I think it would be cool to see a Ft. Lauderdale/Daytona region on that part of the coast. Like I said thought that is waaaay off in the future. Lets wait and see how the International terminal and its related industry performs. After that I see big things for the area. Now what would the name be? Anyone want to take a stab at a name. Just for you reality freaks the name thing is just for fun.

I have a list:

1. Coastal Carolina Connection (CCC)

2. Mid-South Power House MSPH

3. Mid-South Mouth

I would love to see Wilmington Area & Myrtle Beach merge into one, both NC & SC would benefit. Also both cities would benefit as well with the business relocating in Wilmington they can take a short travel to Myrtle Beach & enjoy all the tourist attractions like Hard Rock theme park & Myrtle Beach would have a chance in gain more tourist attractions in the location because of being so close to Wilmington booming population (basically local tourist).

[krazeeboi]

I just find the growth happening in both areas pretty impressive. From 2000-2006, the Myrtle Beach MSA had a growth rate of 21.3%, adding ~42K people for a population of 238,500. The Wilmington MSA, during that same time period, grew 18.8% (~52K), bringing its population to 326,200. That's a lot of growth for metros that size, and is actually closer to the raw growth that metros in the next tier in the Carolinas (Charleston: 54K, Columbia: 56K, Greensboro: 42K, Greenville: 42K, Winston-Salem: 34K) experienced in that time frame.

[NcSc74]

I just find the growth happening in both areas pretty impressive. From 2000-2006, the Myrtle Beach MSA had a growth rate of 21.3%, adding ~42K people for a population of 238,500. The Wilmington MSA, during that same time period, grew 18.8% (~52K), bringing its population to 326,200. That's a lot of growth for metros that size, and is actually closer to the raw growth that metros in the next tier in the Carolinas (Charleston: 54K, Columbia: 56K, Greensboro: 42K, Greenville: 42K, Winston-Salem: 34K) experienced in that time frame.

I agree krazee I think most large Carolina cities are going to see more domestic migration pop increases. Especially in these two cities as more and more industries leave the states. More and more jobs are being created in urban areas now and the quest for jobs will lead more people to cities. With the expectation of the international port and the related jobs the Wilmington area is poised to gain quite a few residents. So I see the counties of Pender,Bladen,Duplin and Sampson to lose more of their rural population to New Hanover and Brunswick counties. I am sure that same thing is happeing in the counties around Myrtle but I do see more service related jobs luring folks. So this region does have a chance of becoming the mutual bi-state CSA that many people forsee. What do you think krazee...

[krazeeboi]

I already see that Wilimington has a much more diverse economy than Myrtle Beach, which definitely bodes well for it. However, the potential is also there for Myrtle Beach to diversify its economy as well. In the not too distant future, we may well see an emerging coastal Carolina mini-megalopolis, stretching from Wilmington to Charleston (possibly even on down to Savannah).

[davidals]

I agree krazee I think most large Carolina cities are going to see more domestic migration pop increases. Especially in these two cities as more and more industries leave the states. More and more jobs are being created in urban areas now and the quest for jobs will lead more people to cities. With the expectation of the international port and the related jobs the Wilmington area is poised to gain quite a few residents. So I see the counties of Pender,Bladen,Duplin and Sampson to lose more of their rural population to New Hanover and Brunswick counties. I am sure that same thing is happeing in the counties around Myrtle but I do see more service related jobs luring folks. So this region does have a chance of becoming the mutual bi-state CSA that many people forsee. What do you think krazee...

I don't thing you'll see SE NC take the kind of population hit you're going to see farther north (that Rocky Mount-to-Elizabeth City swath of coastal plain that's projected to really empty out). I'd bet Wilmington and Myrtle are the reason - New Hanover is tiny geographically, with a 14.8% growth rate 2000-2006 in the county, so you'll be seeing the numbers curve up in Pender and Brunswick starting now (in Brunswick) and within the decade (in Pender). Proximity to I-40 or 95 will help other counties to at least stay at a break-even point. At some point I recall seeing an ad in the News And Observer pitching the idea of Mount Olive as an attractive would-be exurb for Raleigh and Fayetteville commuters, which at first seems extreme, until you consider the commute and housing prices on the west side of the Triangle. Such thinking might be the salvation of several imperiled SE NC towns, at least the ones in close proximity to a limited access highway.

The downside: you'll be seeing I-40 from Wilmington up to around Burgaw start to ugly up (and clog up) real fast if the folks in Pender don't watch out. Ditto along 74 across N Brunswick.

[ChiefJoJo]

In the not too distant future, we may well see an emerging coastal Carolina mini-megalopolis, stretching from Wilmington to Charleston (possibly even on down to Savannah).

The question is, do we want this to happen? I've always viewed the NC coast as a nice getaway, with nicer beaches and less development than our neighbors to the south. IMO Myrtle Beach can have all of the strip malls and such that line 17 for miles on end... I'd rather have some nice dense development in Wilmington that respects the history of the city and in the beach towns and such... unfortunately, the leaders in Brunswick are addicted to sprawl at the moment. Eventually, it's going to catch up with them to the detriment of water quality, open space, affordability, traffic congestion, and liveability.

Growth in the SE coast is inevitable, but it can be managed significanty better than it is currently being done.