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monsoon

First SC County to hit 1,000,000 population

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Assuming the current growth rates for the past 5 years hold and starting with the July 1, 2005 population estimates, the first county to hit 1,000,000 in SC won't exist until the 2060 census.

In 2060 the ranking is as follows.

  1. Horry - 1,017,774

  2. York - 860,102

  3. Greenville - 848,337

  4. Charleston - 648,277

  5. Richland - 632,984

  6. Lexington - 575,686

  7. Spartanburg - 449,900

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I don't think you can assume that current growth rates will continue through 2060.

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Wow, that's certainly interesting. I would expect Greenville to get there first because the city is centrally located to the county. Horry's advantage is that it is so darn spacious, so it has the room to pack in 1,000,000 people. Between Richland and Lexington there will be 1,000,000, since Columbia is located in both counties.

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Even at 1 million, there will be parts of Horry County that will still be rural since its such a large county.

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Unless something changes DRASTICALLY, the other counties will not catch up to Greenville cty, let alone pass it. Horry county is all it's incredible growth has only outpaced greenville county by a mere 3000 over the past 5 years, and gville already has more than a 150,000 lead. Remember that as Horry's population contunues to increase, the RATE will most likely drop. This explaines why Greenville CTY growht has just about led for the past several decades in sheer numbers, but has slipped in rate growth.

I had posed a question about when people think Gville cty will reach 500,000 in the Gville off topic thread, but so far I haven't had any takers.

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It is absurd to extend a current growth rate that far into the future. Hopefully, at some point, South Carolina will end its status as a poor stepchild and will have a high growth cycle like the rest of the Southeast. When that happens, it is anybody's guess as to which metro will see the highest growth.

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It is absurd to extend a current growth rate that far into the future. Hopefully, at some point, South Carolina will end its status as a poor stepchild and will have a high growth cycle like the rest of the Southeast. When that happens, it is anybody's guess as to which metro will see the highest growth.

I agree. There are so many variables that will be put into play within the next 50 years. Along with that, each separate county will experience booms or slowdowns due to many economic factors. In addition, you have to consider quality of life in each city, etc., etc. We really cannot honestly predict which county will reach the 1,000,000 mark first.

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Even at 1 million, there will be parts of Horry County that will still be rural since its such a large county.

I don't know about that. With the way suburbia keeps supersizing everything, by 2060 the average suburban house will be 1,000,000 square feet on 60 acre lots!! Talk about "bonus rooms"!!!

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Assuming the current growth rates for the past 5 years hold and starting with the July 1, 2005 population estimates, the first county to hit 1,000,000 in SC won't exist until the 2060 census.

In 2060 the ranking is as follows.

  1. Horry - 1,017,774

  2. York - 860,102

  3. Greenville - 848,337

  4. Charleston - 648,277

  5. Richland - 632,984

  6. Lexington - 575,686

  7. Spartanburg - 449,900

I wonder what the growth rates were from 1945-1950? It would be interesting to see what populations would have been projected to be in 2005 using those old rates. I bet they would be way off.

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Good way to look at it Greenville. But monsoon's projections are highly speculatory by nature, as things do change--in other words, these figures aren't to be taken as gospel. They're just what the stats would be IF current trends hold, and we know that over the long run, they simply do not.

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If you maintain a certain percentage growth consistently then you will get an exponential increase.

Greenville County had the highest real populaiton increase, but Horry had the highest percentage. Greenville has about 250,000 or so more than Horry.

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The thought of 1,000,000 residents (and then throw in several hundred thousand tourists in the summer) in the Grand Strand is something I do not even want to think about. That said, I do see Myrtle Beach emerging as a region on par with the big three eventually (a number of decades from now)--that is unless one of the big three really breaks out and become a real boomtown like the Triangle in NC or Austin in TX. I do not know what the ultimate potential of the Myrtle Beach region is. I doubt has the potential that south Florida does since it does have a real winter. But still, it seems to me that it has a lot more growth potential in its future. With the popularity of coastal locations (perhaps not the best thing when you consider nasty hurricane cycles like the one we are currently in) and the coming retiree explosion, who knows.

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