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Mikejesmike

New York City's spiraling crime rate

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New York City 1990-2005

Murder

2,262=1 in 3,237---------540=1 in 15,080

Rape

3,126=1 in 2,342------1,636=1 in 4,997

Robbery

100,280=1 in 73-------24,421=1 in 333

Fel. Assault

44,122=1 in 166-------17,341=1 in 470

Burglary

122,055=1 in 60-------23,994=1 in 339

Gr. Larceny

108,487=1 in 67-------47,671=1 in 171

G.L.A

146,925=1 in 50-------17,860=1 in 456

Staten Island

Murder

29=1 in 13,068-----------15=1 in 30,971

Rape

80=1 in 4,737-------------54=1 in 8,603

Robbery

1,035=1 in 366----------445=1 in 1,045

Fel. Assault

1,225=1 in 309----------493=1 in 942

Burglary

3,641=1 in 104----------802=1 in 579

Gr. Larceny

2,075=1 in 183--------1,153=1 in 403

G.L.A

7,224=1 in 52------------534=1 in 870

Bronx

Murder

653=1 in 1,843-----------129=1 in 10,522

Rape

644=1 in 1,869-----------356=1 in 3,813

Robbery

17,862=1 in 67---------4,966=1 in 273

Fel. Assault

9,538=1 in 126---------4,215=1 in 322

Burglary

19,326=1 in 62---------4,150=1 in 327

Gr. Larceny

8,856=1 in 136---------5,337=1 in 254

G.L.A.

22,946=1 in 52---------4,015=1 in 338

Manhattan

Murder

503=1 in 2,957------------91=1 in 17,508

Rape

689=1 in 2,159-----------363=1 in 4,389

Robbery

26,907=1 in 55---------5,462=1 in 292

Fel. Assault

10,089=1 in 147--------3,384=1 in 471

Burglary

30,357=1 in 49---------5,065=1 in 315

Gr. Larceny

58,610=1 in 25--------20,112=1 in 79

G.L.A.

21,474=1 in 69----------1,965=1 in 811

Brooklyn

Murder

765=1 in 3,007-----------211=1 in 11,783

Rape

1,154=1 in 1,993---------466=1 in 5,335

Robbery

35,891=1 in 64---------8,631=1 in 288

Fel. Assault

16,337=1 in 141--------6,255=1 in 397

Burglary

39,301=1 in 59---------8,964=1 in 277

Gr. Larceny

28,440=1 in 81--------11,702=1 in 212

G.L.A.

45,014=1 in 51----------5,846=1 in 425

Queens

Murder

312=1 in 6,255-------------94=1 in 23,847

Rape

559=1 in 3,491------------397=1 in 5,646

Robbery

18,134=1 in 108---------4,917=1 in 456

Fel. Assault

6,863=1 in 284-----------2,994=1 in 749

Burglary

29,430=1 in 66-----------5,889=1 in 380

Gr. Larceny

19,470=1 in 100----------9,367=1 in 239

G.L.A.

50,267=1 in 39-----------5,500=1 in 408

Murder

Best-Staten Island-------Worst-Bronx

Rape

Best-Staten Island-------Worst-Bronx

Robbery

Best-Staten Island-------Worst-Bronx

Fel. Assault

Best-Staten Island-------Worst-Bronx

Burglary

Best-Staten Island-------Worst-Brooklyn

Gr. Larceny

Best-Staten Island-------Worst-Manhattan

G.L.A.

Best-Staten Island-------Worst-Bronx

So there's been talk of the numbers being fixed

by some of the people (who are raising the doubt)

working for the city, however let's ask the average

person living there-To any New Yorker- Aside from

what you read in the papers, does it feel the same

as the past 35 years or is it noticeably better?

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From visiting there and talking to those who live there, I can say that the crime rate in NYC has definitely declined sharply over the past 10+ years.

Of course there will be those with political agendas who will say that the numbers have been fixed. (Hell, there are many in NYC who think that Bush and the government were the masterminds of 9/11). But the reason the crime rate went down is not because there was a white or Republican mayor in office. It's because the city finally took a tough, proactive approach to crime. Basically, they said "enough". Dinkins certainly didn't give a damn about the crime rate. If he did, he would have taken at least some get-tough measures. But he didn't; he was too concerned with his "constituents" (i.e. special interests).

For the Charles Barrons or those with social services interests, yea, they're going to say the numbers are fixed. But who cares what they think?

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Here are some numbers through the years

NYC murders

1871------42=1 in 23,055 (Manhattan)

1928----402=1 in 16,588

1929----425=1 in 15,999

1930----494=1 in 14,029

1931----562=1 in 12,425

1943----225=1 in 33,716

1951----243=1 in 32,432

1960----390=1 in 19,954

1962----508=1 in 15,363

1963----548=1 in 14,262

1970--1,117=1 in 7,068

1980--1,814=1 in 3,898

1990--2,262=1 in 3,237

2000----673=1 in 11,899

2005----540=1 in 15,080

Average murders per year

70's average-1,626.6

80's average-1,726.7

90's average-1,249.2

00's average-591 (so far)

From 1990-2005

1990 - 2,262 (highest ever)

1991 - 2,154

1992 - 1,995

1993 - 1,946

1994 - 1,561

1995 - 1,117 lowest since 1970-25 years

1996 - 983 lowest since 1968-28 years

1997 - 770 lowest since 1967-30 years

1998 - 629

1999 - 664

2000 - 673

2001 - 660

2002 - 587

2003 - 596

2004 - 572

2005 - 540-(equivilant to the early 60's, before things started going quickly downhill)

Some Manhattan numbers

1871---42 murders 1 in 23,055

1937--217 murders 1 in 8,678

1950--159 murders 1 in 12,328

1972--661 murders 1 in 2,295 (highest ever)

1990--503 murders 1 in 2,957

2005---91 murders 1 in 17,508

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From those stats, NYC is safer than my childhood home town of Norwich, CT (pop. 38k). We had close to 10 murders a few years ago... Haven't had one in a little bit though..

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It's possible for the number to dip below 300 murders. NYC as a whole was safer in 1943 and 1951 than Staten Island was last year.

In 2005 there were 540 murders, but it's a bit misleading because they count people as murder victims if they die from injuries in 2005 from acts of violence that happened years before. For instance one person was injured in the 1970's and died in 2005 so that was included. The total number of people physically killed in 2005 is 519.

Also I read somewhere that something like 90% of those killed had drugs in their body, so if you stay away from the illegal drug business your chances of not being murdered shoot up dramatically.

Another shocking stat, and I don't want to turn this into a gun debate but just food for thought, of the 540 murders 329 were from being shot. It makes you think how it would be if they got all the guns out. Of course if someone is determined to kill someone they'll try, but I think my odds are better defending myself against someone with a knife than someone with a gun.

There is progress though-except for Manhattan and Staten Island the number of shootings is down from 2003.

2003--380

2004--352

2005--329

The number of murders will go down, but not as fast as in the 90's. The more criminals you lock up the harder it is to come across one if you stay on top of it. Think of this in 1990 NYC averaged about 6 murders a day. In 2005 about 1.5.

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It's possible for the number to dip below 300 murders. NYC as a whole was safer in 1943 and 1951 than Staten Island was last year.

In 2005 there were 540 murders, but it's a bit misleading because they count people as murder victims if they die from injuries in 2005 from acts of violence that happened years before. For instance one person was injured in the 1970's and died in 2005 so that was included. The total number of people physically killed in 2005 is 519.

Also I read somewhere that something like 90% of those killed had drugs in their body, so if you stay away from the illegal drug business your chances of not being murdered shoot up dramatically.

Another shocking stat, and I don't want to turn this into a gun debate but just food for thought, of the 540 murders 329 were from being shot. It makes you think how it would be if they got all the guns out. Of course if someone is determined to kill someone they'll try, but I think my odds are better defending myself against someone with a knife than someone with a gun.

There is progress though-except for Manhattan and Staten Island the number of shootings is down from 2003.

2003--380

2004--352

2005--329

The number of murders will go down, but not as fast as in the 90's. The more criminals you lock up the harder it is to come across one if you stay on top of it. Think of this in 1990 NYC averaged about 6 murders a day. In 2005 about 1.5.

I can't believe NYC has such a low murder number in 2005, Baltimore had 269 murders in 2005 with about 1/16 of NYC population.

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Has anyone read the book Freakonomics?

In it, the author makes a pretty compelling case that the nationwide drop in crime we have seen over the last few years is at least indirectly linked to the passage of Roe v Wade. His argument is (and I'm paraphrasing) that aborted pregnancies tend to be from mothers that can't or don't want to support their newborns, usually the poor and single mothers. These babies are the ones that, statistically, have the highest chance of becoming involved in crime when they reach their "prime" criminal years of 18 to 24. Abortion was legalized in '73 and the rapid drop in crime started about 20 years after that.

I'm not saying it was the biggest factor, or even a minor factor, but his arguement is definately worth reading.

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