Transit Updates for Greater Grand Rapids

[GRDadof3]

6) Insurance

7) Oil Changes

8) Repairs over the life of the car

Licensing/Secretary of State

MDOT

Traffic signals

Parking costs (we all pay for a sea of parking)

Health costs from emissions (I'm going to guess a $3K car does not have the best emissions)

Federal Highway Safety Administration

[crinzema]

I was giving a very generous estimate. But if you did your estimation with the real cost of this project, it would cost more than a used Ferrari or a brand new BMW per rider. Thats not fair to me who riders around the city with my rust bucket that I pay for with my money. I don't mind more buses, but when this kind of luxury is lavished on a few at the expense of the whole region, this is anything but progressive.

Edited April 29, 2009 by crinzema

[Explorer55]

Licensing/Secretary of State

MDOT

Traffic signals

Parking costs (we all pay for a sea of parking)

Health costs from emissions (I'm going to guess a $3K car does not have the best emissions)

Federal Highway Safety Administration

Just to clarify, there is no "Federal Highway Safety Administration". There is the Federal Highway Administration (operating costs, including salaries paid through the federal gas tax revenues and a few other federal transportation fees until probably this past year when funds from general revenues were used to supplement federal highway revenues) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. And don't forget the Michigan DOT and all other state transportation/highway agencies (often paid from various sources, including state gas taxes and general funds).

[Veloise]

...Where are those hard numbers? How many are "lots"?

Wikipedia: Olive Township is a civil township of Ottawa County in the U.S. state of Michigan. The population was 4,691 at the 2000 census.

A transit line that runs 30 miles into the country, through sparsely-populated areas, seems like a good way to increase bad planning and urban sprawl.

Answering my own question here.

Cencus Bureau fact sheet for Ottawa County:

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ACSSA...&_industry=

Mean travel time to work in minutes: 19.8

What this means: half of Ottawa residents arrive at their workplace in less than 20 minutes, and half take longer than that.

Coopersville is about 17 miles from GR City Hall, but it's doubtful that one could get there inside of 20 minutes.

Still looking for distance to work data. I am still not seeing the cited "lots."

ETA: Found this data sheet

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTab...S_2007_3YR_G00_

with break-outs of commute times and method. (.3% commute by bicycle, hooray.) No details on distance.

37.8% work outside county of residence, which means that someone could live in Grand Haven and work in Muskegon, in Zeeland and work in Holland, or in Georgetown Twp and work in Grandville.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Veloise

[GRDadof3]

I was giving a very generous estimate. But if you did your estimation with the real cost of this project, it would cost more than a used Ferrari or a brand new BMW per rider. Thats not fair to me who riders around the city with my rust bucket that I pay for with my money. I don't mind more buses, but when this kind of luxury is lavished on a few at the expense of the whole region, this is anything but progressive.

I assume you're getting your math from taking the total cost of the project and dividing it by 1600 riders. But keep in mind, that's 1600 riders per day, not 1600 total people in the metro area using the system. And the 1600 is first year. EVERY system similar to this has seen doubling if not tripling in ridership in about 5 years. Even The Rapid's normal routes have seen almost doubling in about the last 5 years. So you're Ferrari example is a red herring.

[jbr12]

** Editted to remove any misinformation... See the Following Posts **

Edited April 30, 2009 by jbr12

[Yankee Fan]

I think you estimates are WAAAAAAAAAAY off...

From http://mlui.org/transportation/fullarticle.asp?fileid=17244 :

With an estimate of 1,600 riders PER DAY...

365 days * 1,600 riders / day = 584,000 riders per year...

Initial cost of $40,000,000 / 584,000 riders = $68 per rider...

WHOA! If these numbers are correct, what you are telling me is that we are going to pay 68 bucks per rider per day for this thing!

Yeah, that does not seem like such a wise thing when I look at it from that perspective. 68 bucks?! Maybe a carpool lane would be a better idea. I understand that this is a great idea in theory and I agree with the theory. But the demand does not seem to be there. How much do we charge per ride? That is just crazy. I may have to vote No now, unless someone has a good reason why 68 bucks per rider per day is a great idea.

How about 68 bucks per student per day for our public schools? But for a bus line?!! I am not so sure about this.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Yankee Fan

[jbr12]

** Editted to remove any misinformation... See the Following Posts **

Edited April 30, 2009 by jbr12

[Yankee Fan]

I think you're mis-understanding... That is the INITIAL ONE TIME COST to build the BRT line, using only the first year's riders as the per rider figure... If what GRDad says is true and ridership doubles in the next 5 years (notice me using double instead of triple):

Year 1 = 1,600 Riders per day = 584,000

Year 2 = 2,000 Riders per day = 730,000.

Year 3 = 2,400 Riders per day = 876,000.

Year 4 = 2,800 Riders per day = 1,022,000.

Year 5 = 3,200 Riders per day = 1,168,000.

--------------------------

5 Year Ridership = 4,380,000 rides

$40,000,000 / 4,380,000 riders = $9.13 Initial Investment per rider

Remember current bus rides cost $1.50 and I would guess the BRT will be slightly more expensive

Okay, and that is great IF it doubles, but $9.13 is still an expensive ride.

I am not a math major, but at $9.13 isn't that a 600% increase in cost over the $1.50 you said it currently costs?!

So then:

1. If ridership increases, will they need more vehicles (which will be additional an additional cost)

2. Will they need to increase the number of stops at each "station" which would add additional costs

3. Are we really convinced that this will double ridership in 5 years?

4. In five years, if this is still at 1,600 riders per day, do they shut it down?

Again, I like the theory of this, but this really seem expensive for what it actually provides. Seems like there is a lot of speculation and hope involved at a very high cost.

[jbr12]

I think you're missing out on the point... While this is 'just a bus upgrade' it provides a permanent transit system for one of the most traveled corridors in the Grand Rapids metro area. If you look at any other city nationwide that as implemented a similar BRT system, you will see DRASTIC amounts of development and investment in the areas. Ridership doubling in 5 years is being pessimistic. Tripling or more is being optimistic.

But hey, what do I know... I'm just a young professional that rides transit everyday and saves $100s / month vs buying a car and exponentially increasing the environmental problems worldwide.

[Yankee Fan]

I think you're missing out on the point... While this is 'just a bus upgrade' it provides a permanent transit system for one of the most traveled corridors in the Grand Rapids metro area. If you look at any other city nationwide that as implemented a similar BRT system, you will see DRASTIC amounts of development and investment in the areas. Ridership doubling in 5 years is being pessimistic. Tripling or more is being optimistic.

But hey, what do I know... I'm just a young professional that rides transit everyday and saves $100s / month vs buying a car and exponentially increasing the environmental problems worldwide.

Dude, I get the point of the idea. Just seems a little expensive to me.

Whatever, though. It is obvious that my opinion is a dumb opinion to the "young professionals" as you seem to have it all figured out and I am just a dumb, uneducated guy who is apparently killing the environment because I drive to work in a car and I am asking questions. My bad.

[John E]

JBR12,

Fares for Silver Line will be the same as fixed route rates-all passes will work interchangeably.

http://www.rapidsilverline.org/how-will-it-work/how-to-ride

~John

[Khorasaurus]

WHOA! If these numbers are correct, what you are telling me is that we are going to pay 68 bucks per rider per day for this thing!

It's pretty clearly 68 dollars per year if you read that post again. It's also 68 dollars per rider, not 68 dollars per taxpayer.

The $1.50 being quoted is what it costs a passenger to ride the bus. It costs more than that per passenger to operate the bus (although the per passenger costs go down the more people ride and at a certain point the bus system concievably could make money, although no systems do because, as you say, at that point they have to add buses).

Anyway, what we're talking about here is a millage to pay for the gap between what it costs the user and the operation costs. The increase in property taxes in less than a dollar per month for the average West Michigan homeowner.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Khorasaurus

[Rizzo]

Everyone is basing on wrong numbers. I'll get you the numbers in sometime.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Rizzo

[Allison Slater]

Actually, the costs mentioned above are based on the INITIAL fees. The amount quoted is to -purchase- the buses and build the stations. The operational costs will be much lower I imagine, and that is what the millage is for.

So, to ACQUIRE personal transportation for oneself, there's at least $800+ and car registration, followed by some portion of the roads (because those have to be built for the user to use their vehicle.) A cost of at least $900 plus a little bit of road construction for an automobile per person as opposed to $68 per person for a BRT after it has operated for 5 years.

The costs to MAINTAIN will be different. Certainly lower than the above costs. I'm not sure what that gap would be, but I'm quite sure it's much less than $66.50 per person.

Edited April 29, 2009 by tSlater

[GRDadof3]

Actually, the costs mentioned above are based on the INITIAL fees. The amount quoted is to -purchase- the buses and build the stations. The operational costs will be much lower I imagine, and that is what the millage is for.

So, to ACQUIRE personal transportation for oneself, there's at least $800+ and car registration, followed by some portion of the roads (because those have to be built for the user to use their vehicle.) A cost of at least $900 plus a little bit of road construction for an automobile per person as opposed to $68 per person for a BRT after it has operated for 5 years.

The costs to MAINTAIN will be different. Certainly lower than the above costs. I'm not sure what that gap would be, but I'm quite sure it's much less than $66.50 per person.

The total millage The Rapid is asking for is 1.28 Mills, of which .16 is for the BRT. The total millage package brings in revenue of $13,967,446 for all operations. So if someone wants to do the math, they can probably figure out what the operating cost of the BRT will be (about 12% of $13 Million).

[jbr12]

Everyone is basing on wrong numbers. Details forth coming, it's getting really hard to be a one man operation.

I'll edit all of my posts that contain any monetary numbers if you provide some insight I'll just point the posts right to your post

[Rizzo]

My preliminary math shows that on a per rider basis, you can expect to see between $.94 cents to $5.14 without including capital costs. Which is a good assumption, because the capital costs will be paid for between 2009-2012 before the service is made available. Also, you can't say for sure that all the federal and state money being spent is 100% paid for by local tax dollars to derive a real figure of cost. But mostly the cost per rider in a fiscal year is greatly dependent on converting boardings into fare paying riders. The Feds estimate that the route will have 7,200 weekday boardings. I'm trying to do conversions.

Dad knows what's up. I'm down the same path. Just still doing the numbers.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Rizzo

[fotoman311]

My preliminary math shows that on a per rider basis, you can expect to see between $.94 cents to $5.14 without including capital costs. Which is a good assumption, because the capital costs will be paid for between 2009-2012 before the service is made available. Also, you can't say for sure that all the federal and state money being spent is 100% paid for by local tax dollars to derive a real figure of cost. But mostly the cost per rider in a fiscal year is greatly dependent on converting boardings into fare paying riders. The Feds estimate that the route will have 7,200 weekday boardings. I'm trying to do conversions.

Dad knows what's up. I'm down the same path. Just still doing the numbers.

Why aren't these numbers already crunched and available on a nice website (maybe they are?) showing in a straightforward, relatively easy to understand way, how they were derived? Seems like this information should already be available and easy to find for anyone interested in knowing more (including the press). All the confusion and misinformation (some of it spread purposely by those for and especially against) makes it very difficult for the average person to become educated and make a decision.

[Rizzo]

Why aren't these numbers already crunched and available on a nice website (maybe they are?) showing in a straightforward, relatively easy to understand way, how they were derived? Seems like this information should already be available and easy to find for anyone interested in knowing more (including the press). All the confusion and misinformation (some of it spread purposely by those for and especially against) makes it very difficult for the average person to become educated and make a decision.

Because breaking down numbers into 'per rider' is only for political purposes. People do it to prove a point. For instance, the folks above either do it to rile opposition or support. The only reason to break it down like that is to say that rider's don't subsidize their own ticket. That only non-riders pay all the rider's fares. This is false, because it is perfectly rational to assume that riders in most cases pay property taxes directly or indirectly. About the only people I can think of that don't pay proper property taxes directly that should are people who reside in mobile home parks. Again, I'll get back to this later today.

Edited April 29, 2009 by Rizzo

[Yankee Fan]

Because breaking down numbers into 'per rider' is only for political purposes. People do it to prove a point. For instance, the folks above either do it to rile opposition or support.

Or, in my case, because I truly do not understand how this is adding up to a good investment. I have no vested interest in this either way as I will not be riding it and I do not live in that area. But I get to vote on it, so I want to know why it makes sense to say yes.

I like the idea, the theory. Just not ready to say that this is as great of an idea as some are.

I am sorry Rizzo, but please don't lump me in with people trying to "prove a point." You shouldn't chastize those who are trying to get their arms around this. If it ends up making sense, I will vote yes.

[rachelliz]

I think the other positive piece (in addition to being more environmentally friendly, being more convenient, etc) is that the money is coming from the federal and state government. It isn't like Grand Rapids can say, yes we want the money, but we want to do something else with it. We either get it for the silver line, or we don't get it at all. So voting yes means $40 million for GR plus a slight increase in millage. Voting no means no $40 million. Is that right?

[fotoman311]

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/grandrap_19648_7.pdf

Here are the 2007 Average Daily Traffic counts on MDOT roads in the Grand Rapids area.

I was going to try and look at how much money was going to be spent to redo the section of I-196 that will be redone in 2010 from the river to Fuller, and compare that to the investment in infrastructure for the BRT, but I cannot find a cost for that project anywhere on MDOT's website, or in the articles that were written in the GRPress.

Obviously 55-65000 passengers per day is a much higher capacity, but I would bet the cost is quite a bit higher as well, and obviously it's not the same distance.

I did find a citation to a paper on USC's website that in California, Interstate highways in more urbanized areas often cost $20-44 million/mile and that was in 1997 dollars.

There are also other intangible benefits to the BRT system. The raised platforms will make it easier for handicapped people, especially those in wheelchairs, to board the buses, although the possible downside is that they may need to travel farther to get to a stop. They won't have to feel like they are holding up the entire bus for an unreasonable time while the floor folds out and they are lifted onto the bus.

It will also make it easier to provide adequate bicycle parking at each station, making multi-modal commuting a simpler option.

Edited April 29, 2009 by fotoman311

[aowwt]

The reason to vote for this is the fact that it will take the area south of 44th develop it better. Most of that area is vacant commerical buildings or newer suburb buildings that dont mesh. As a result it looks horrid and that depresses property values. The BRT line will create 1/4 mile diameter hubs that has been shown to create a walkable livable neighboorhood. By doing this it increases property values that at present are pretty low. If you want I can go through AccessKent and get you all of the property values along division but it will take some time. In anycase the increase of property values will help the cities of Grand Rapids, Kentwood, and Wyoming in keeping services they are currently providing kept. As for Grandville, Walker, and East Grand Rapids. EGR may get a line to Blodgett running on Lake Drive then linking to the Michigan St section. As for Walker I can see a line running on Alpine Ave that links to the Monroe Ave section. As for Grandville they will get served by a 28th St line that would link the Airport to Metro health. Those 3 new lines can ONLY happen if we support this millage request. All told you are looking at 4 lines that would link a large population of the city with each other as well as all of the major hospitals, airport, and commerical districts except for Plainfeild since that township has not voted to become part of the Rapid.

As for going to small eletric vehicles, I can see people using them to get from parts farther than the stations to the stations and parking in park and ride lots. You have to remember that most people will not walk more than 1/8th of a mile when they will just hop into a vehicle. As for why I am saying vote to increase property values. The City of Wyoming is seeing an increase of costs that unless they get a large amount of property value increase every year until the state starts providing the revenue sharing that they have cut and kept at the same amount. By not increasing the cities are finding it harder to keep making budgets.

Now I can get more involved into revenue sharing but needless to say its a major issue why the cities are trying to spur development. Since their only means of increasing revenue is by having a larger tax base.

[crinzema]

Please debunk my concerns

1. Economy

2. I'm concerned with our national debt And don't tell me it's going to be spend somewhere else if it's not going to be spent here. That's like saying, i'm going to chop off one of my limbs, which one? how about none? Just because your children's tax money is available to spend somewhere does not make it morally right to spend it.

3. Initial Cost barrier

4. Hard numbers on examples of increased ridership rate in other cities

5. Operating rate vs. Bus's operating rate

6. Why does this increases development and not buses. Are we paying 40,000,000 for a time improvement with which a 10 minute improvement will never be seen by an average rider unless they get on at the beginning of the route, and just so happens to hop off at the very very end of the route.

7. What does Division look like with a dedicated BRT lane? 1 lane for cars each way?

8. How long will this system last before another upgrade is needed?

Edited April 29, 2009 by crinzema