The Vue vs 210 Trade

[monsoon]

Until they stick a shovel into the ground and/or the release of information that would dispel the skepticism, then there is reason for it. If a development is actually not doing well, it's not likely the developer is going to release information that would make that point known. We got silence out of the Park for almost 5 years instead of hearing all of the failings of that project that caused it to be delayed for so long.

[orulz]

Very well then. I will simply leave you with this bit of evidence: by all accounts, the Charlotte team seems to be conducting its business in the same way the Orlando team conducted its business. And VUE Orlando is on the fifteenth floor as we speak.

This may be turn out to be a good thing in the long run. While the tower may not get built for a year or so yet, it also means that the real estate market in downtown Charlotte is more sane than the feverish, bubble atmosphere you find in Orlando.

[Dale]

Until they stick a shovel into the ground and/or the release of information that would dispel the skepticism, then there is reason for it. If a development is actually not doing well, it's not likely the developer is going to release information that would make that point known. We got silence out of the Park for almost 5 years instead of hearing all of the failings of that project that caused it to be delayed for so long.

But again, the Orlando team, as memory serves, was probably not as forthcoming as you would have liked, and yet they're on the fifteenth floor.

So again, all I'm really suggesting (or should be suggesting), is that, if Orlando is any indication, VUE Charlotte is doing fine.

This may be turn out to be a good thing in the long run. While the tower may not get built for a year or so yet, it also means that the real estate market in downtown Charlotte is more sane than the feverish, bubble atmosphere you find in Orlando.

I don't know that there is a 'feverish, bubble atmosphere' in Orlando. Certainly not downtown.

[monsoon]

So again, all I'm really suggesting (or should be suggesting), is that, if Orlando is any indication, VUE Charlotte is doing fine.

Fair enough however I am not convinced that Orlando is an indication of what will happen here.

[sleightofhand]

It's mostly their failure to disclose any sales numbers. This is unlike all of the other projects that have done well. They trumpet their numbers if they've done well. What possible motive would they have to withhold good information? Bad numbers, on the other hand, are best left undisclosed for fear of scaring other buyers off.

I called the sales office and they will tell you the reason they don't disclose numbers is to not scare off buyers. Apparently in Orlando they let the public know how many they had sold. Once Vue Orlando got around 60% sold people assumed they missed all the good deals.

I'm tellin ya, these people know what they're doing.

[stateman99]

I called the sales office and they will tell you the reason they don't disclose numbers is to not scare off buyers. Apparently in Orlando they let the public know how many they had sold. Once Vue Orlando got around 60% sold people assumed they missed all the good deals.

I'm tellin ya, these people know what they're doing.

I'll add to that too. I know someone who is fairly well connected with this project. They told me that the sales people are not allowed to tell the numbers whether it is good or bad. This makes total sense of why that is.

[monsoon]

Well one could make the argument that lack of sales will scare off buyers as well. As I said earlier, there is no practical reason for a residential tower of this height to be built in downtown, let alone two towers of this height. Forgetting there are hundreds of square acres in the downtown area with low density or no density development, the fact is that most people in the world, even in dense cities don't like living in high rises.

The vast majority of the people in the world in cities live in towers that are less than 25 stories mainly because day to day living in a high tower is a bi**h when you consider the pain of getting in and out of the building from the high floors. And while I am sure the Vue is very luxurious there is something claustrophobic to many people that have to remain sealed up inside because the air pressure and weather make opening the windows difficult if not impossible.

So beyond the few true luxury buyer that might decide to actually live in the building, I would say that most of the people that are going to buy into these towers and are willing to pay the exhorbant cost to do so, are people mainly interested in the property investment. And the more the Vue, and for that matter others, can continue to put forth the illusion this is a high demand one of a kind property, then the more they can get away with charging prices for something that really shouldn't exist.

Imagine if word got out on one of these places they were not selling as well as they liked. Price Cut. and then maybe no building. It's no surprise they are being very coy about the sales. I do indeed believe they understand the game as stated above. They understand it better than most people would guess.

[sleightofhand]

^Wow! I would definately classify you as a conspiracy theorist.

Didn't the Vue issue a press release saying they had reached their pre-sales requirements?

I think more people want to live in high rises than you think.

Besides, the Vue doesn't have to sale condos to the "vast majority of people in the world".

[ElricSeven]

I called the sales office and they will tell you the reason they don't disclose numbers is to not scare off buyers. Apparently in Orlando they let the public know how many they had sold. Once Vue Orlando got around 60% sold people assumed they missed all the good deals.

I'm tellin ya, these people know what they're doing.

You asked the sales people? Of course they'll spin it as positively as possible. Ask someone without some skin in the game. All the good deals aren't gone at the Arlington, I don't see anyone rushing in to buy more now after five years. Urgency comes from a sense that they're missing out, that's fundamental behavior. Man, now I'm getting even more skeptical if they're that full of BS.

[monsoon]

^Wow! I would definately classify you as a conspiracy theorist.

I recommend that you go read the rules about calling people names. If you disagree with what I wrote then at least offer up something that might actually address what I wrote.

[AuLukey]

I called the sales office and they will tell you the reason they don't disclose numbers is to not scare off buyers. Apparently in Orlando they let the public know how many they had sold. Once Vue Orlando got around 60% sold people assumed they missed all the good deals.

I agree with this policy. If buyers think that there is plenty of space left, they are more likely to contact the sales office to look for one of the floor plans they are hoping for rather than thinking the floor plan they want is already sold out.

What I wonder is, how good will the view at the Vue be in ten years if they build more high rises uptown. Will the side facing uptown become the cheaper side when a building the size of the Vue is built right next door?

[ElricSeven]

I agree with this policy. If buyers think that there is plenty of space left, they are more likely to contact the sales office to look for one of the floor plans they are hoping for rather than thinking the floor plan they want is already sold out.

What I wonder is, how good will the view at the Vue be in ten years if they build more high rises uptown. Will the side facing uptown become the cheaper side when a building the size of the Vue is built right next door?

There's got to be a three dozen real estate brokers reading this. Someone weigh in and tell us whether people are more interested in a project selling well, or won't consider even looking at the sales list if 60% of them are sold. This latter point seems strange to me because nothing would ever sell out. Even if you didn't know it going in, you'd figure it out when you requested and were turned down for a particular unit several times.

[monsoon]

What I wonder is, how good will the view at the Vue be in ten years if they build more high rises uptown. Will the side facing uptown become the cheaper side when a building the size of the Vue is built right next door?

Honestly I don't think you will see a 3rd 50+ story residential tower in downtown Charlotte by 2016 so its probably not much of a concern. As I said above, there is a lot of undeveloped land in downtown that is going to eventually be developed. If the objective is to get more people into the downtown area, it can't be by continuing to build very high priced high rise condos that most can't afford. There isn't enough of a market for that. Instead I predict you are going to see a lot more moderatly priced development below 20 stories or otherwise, a lot of developers are going to be sitting on unsold property. The Park comes to mind.

The reality of the situation is that high rise condos, only make sense in the long run when the land runs out, and we are a long way off from that. Beyond the few luxury buyers there isn't a market for something like this here, except for people looking to make a buck off investment buying. Once they figure out this doesn't exist here I think you will see this money run off to the "next big thing".

You know, the 2nd highest residential tower in SC, and currently the 4th highest in the Charlotte metro sits completely empty, because the market disappeared out from under its feet. The frenzy of people who just had to have one, did not save that building either and I remember the similar advertizements for it on all the local TV channels. If it happened once before, it can happen again. Maybe not for the same reasons but until they put the shovels into the ground I would not count on anything happening

This is located just south of the Charlotte city limits and can easily be seen when flying into Charlotte. For those of you not familiar with it, this is the abandoned PTL highrise condo built by Jim Bakker which closed down in 1987. I am not implying the people building the towers in Charlotte are dishonest, but marketing is marketing and my point is that despite the marketing, this tower went under.

[ngp]

Even if you didn't know it going in, you'd figure it out when you requested and were turned down for a particular unit several times.

You guys know that feeling you get when you crave a specific dish all week long, only to have some jackass server wait until after he brings you your drinks and gives you some time with the menu before telling you that whatever it is you

[Lady Celeste]

Okay, with all the people moving into Mecklenburg county, why won't some deeloper buy that PTL highrise for pennies on the dollar as sell the units for like $120's to the low $300's. I cannot believe this building is sitting vacant. It's relatively new...well at least it appears to be....and I'm sure it will not take much to bring it up to code. Is this building tied in in some type of litigation?

[stateman99]

I for one would not want to live in a highrise unless it was downtown. I would want to live somewhere with a view.

[Lady Celeste]

Would this building not have a skyline view of Charlotte but from a distance? I'm not quite sure of it's location but if the price is right and amenities are plentiful, someone will live there.

[ElricSeven]

You guys know that feeling you get when you crave a specific dish all week long, only to have some jackass server wait until after he brings you your drinks and gives you some time with the menu before telling you that whatever it is you

[monsoon]

Okay, with all the people moving into Mecklenburg county, why won't some deeloper buy that PTL highrise for pennies on the dollar as sell the units for like $120's to the low $300's. I cannot believe this building is sitting vacant. It's relatively new...well at least it appears to be....and I'm sure it will not take much to bring it up to code. Is this building tied in in some type of litigation?

It's been sitting like that for close to two decades. I suspect the primary reason it has not been re-developed is there simply is no market for a 22 story condo in Fort Mill, SC. Its cheaper to build a house to live there. One can argue this is the same reason there really isn't a need for 2 50 story residential towers in Charlotte especially when downtown is still mostly covered by parking lots. Like PTL, once the illusion disappears, the market might go with it as well.

The PTL building should be a lesson for anyone wishing to go the condo speculation route. And its a very real concrete one (pun intended ) that one does not have to go too far to see.

Would this building not have a skyline view of Charlotte but from a distance? I'm not quite sure of it's location but if the price is right and amenities are plentiful, someone will live there.

Yes it would have a direct view of downtown Charlotte. It is located due south and slightly east of the city.

[ElricSeven]

It's been sitting like that for close to two decades. I suspect the primary reason it has not been re-developed is there simply is no market for a 22 story condo in Fort Mill, SC. Its cheaper to build a house to live there. One can argue this is the same reason there really isn't a need for 2 50 story residential towers in Charlotte especially when downtown is still mostly covered by parking lots. Like PTL, once the illusion disappears, the market might go with it as well.

The PTL building should be a lesson for anyone wishing to go the condo speculation route. And its a very real concrete one (pun intended ) that one does not have to go too far to see.

Yeah, but there was some pretty wacky stuff going on at that location. Many of my co-workers view my hi-rise location as a sign of exclusivity and are a bit envious of the low-maintenance and high style living. Suburbs are boring, especially if you're an extrovert and if you want to live Uptown, a high-rise has the views, amenities, etc. that are very attractive to many people. Not all, but more than most would surmise. It is such a small fraction of all the homes in CLT, I think that it will be hard to tell how many the market can handle. Also, condos these days are much more well-suited to real life. They've got fine finishes and open floor plans. Not like the glorified apartments of the 80's. About the only thing that's sucky is the parking and storage situation.

Time will tell, though. We'll see.

[monsoon]

Many of my co-workers view my hi-rise location as a sign of exclusivity and are a bit envious of the low-maintenance and high style living.

My argument does not extend to your building as I don't really consider it a highrise given that it is less than 20 stories. I said above that I think the downtown will see a good bit more development in the 15 - 20 story range which is why the market for 50+ story condos is really iffy given the abundance of land to develop these on.

[stateman99]

My argument does not extend to your building as I don't really consider it a highrise given that it is less than 20 stories. I said above that I think the downtown will see a good bit more development in the 15 - 20 story range which is why the market for 50+ story condos is really iffy given the abundance of land to develop these on.

So Metro, am I correct in assuming that you think that the Vue will definately (barring anything unforeseen) get built at least 25-30 stories, if not the full height?

[ElricSeven]

So Metro, am I correct in assuming that you think that the Vue will definately (barring anything unforeseen) get built at least 25-30 stories, if not the full height?

Man, how would you revise the height downward on a project? You'd have to scrap the whole thing. If I was under contract on something high up and they wanted to shorten the building, I'd tell them to kiss my arse.

[monsoon]

So Metro, am I correct in assuming that you think that the Vue will definately (barring anything unforeseen) get built at least 25-30 stories, if not the full height?

You would not be correct in that assumption as I saw the millions that flowed into PTL. People like to forget the past and when that happens, they are bound to repeat the mistakes from those days. The Vue may or may not be built, but what I am saying is there is no practical reason for a building like that in Charlotte beyond the few people who will pay millions for a view and property investors. It's not being built, where you ususally find something like this, because there is a shortage of land.

[Lady Celeste]

Fort Mill, SC?

Okay, I had to go look that one up. Wow...well ummm....hummmm....what a pickle. What in the world was he thinking when this building was commissioned. It's saving grace is the fact that it has interstate access. Okay, maybe drop the prices to the high $70's to low $160's. At this point anything would be better than having it sit there empty. I can't believe that even the state has not jumped on this and made it an assisted living complex. Given the date it was built, it's not an ugly building....

Oh heck, I try to stay positive but I don't know how to make this building sell.

Okay, okay, I got it...it's near fashionable Rock Hill (I hear such great things about this city). There could be a Harris Teeter retrofited into the lobby level, along with a dry cleaners, post office and daycare center. You get to live near some of the south's most fashionable shopping (SouthPark) and you are "minutes" away from Charlotte and all of it's cultural amenities. From the Plaza Mill South condominiums you can be to Charlotte-Douglas International Airport on your way to the world.

At the Plaza Mill South, we give you all the big city amenties without the big city prices.

Okay....am I selling this building or not? If that won't sell a unit then it may have to be imploded.

To the actual topic...I don't know the city like you all do so my thoughts are purely speculation. If both are built as planned and sales are less than spectacular, do you all think that this could hurt future plans and financing for less grandiose towers in the future?