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The Vue vs 210 Trade

monsoon

By monsoon
in Charlotte

The Vue vs 210 Trade  

155 members have voted

  1. 1. What does competition mean for these two 50+ story residential towers.

    • One will be built the other will be canceled
      14
    • One of the projects will be much less than 50 stories
      16
    • Both projects will be smaller
      4
    • Both 50+ story towers will be built
      121
    • Something else (explain)
      0

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Charlotte_native City

Charlotte_native

Posted
Posted

I do think the same thing could happen Uptown though. I've learned that there are people who bought three and four units in Courtside. I was a bit taken aback by this when I heard it. I thought that there was an effort to control investors, but seeing the 25 or so lockboxes that are on the garage entrance, I'm starting to wonder if there's a house of cards being built here.

Precisely. Opinion, but I don't think it will drop prices below what homeowners bought them for, but I do think these investors are about to learn a tough lesson. I also know one person that bought 4 -- they got around the investor rule by having different names on each purchase (himself, family and friends). Honestly I just think the investors will eventually drop their prices to get them sold, the market will bouy and balance eventually, then real market prices and sales will begin to occur. One of the things these investors are not paying attention to, David Furman always holds back a handful of units to sell at market prices (rather than the pre-construction) and puts them on the market when the project is done. Actually quite a few developers do this...so the investors are also competing with the developer for sales -- at courtside Centro put a handful on when it was done, all lower priced than the investor flips.

For many towers we will have to wait and see how this pans out, for this one we can watch now...

Courtside:

21 units on the market right now

5 pending/under contract (not included above)

5 listed are by the developer, the rest (16) by various agents and more importantly of the 5 pending, 3 are being sold by the developer.

A strong market in a neighborhood or complex, should have about half as many homes or units under contract as there are units available -- there should be 10 or more pending units in here for a healthy market.

Or better, 715 N. Church, which had some sales problems for a while but has since stablized, has 5 on the market and 4 under contract. Healthy.

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MZT Burg

MZT

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How is Courtside coming along as far as occupants moving in? I have read accounts of condos in San Diego and Miami where a few people take residence, and they wonder why the rest of the building is quiet with no neighbors around... the cause being the remaining empty units were bought by speculators, who continued flipping them to each other.

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ElricSeven Hamlet

ElricSeven

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How is Courtside coming along as far as occupants moving in? I have read accounts of condos in San Diego and Miami where a few people take residence, and they wonder why the rest of the building is quiet with no neighbors around... the cause being the remaining empty units were bought by speculators, who continued flipping them to each other.

I think at this point it is about 40% full. It looks less so, perhaps, because the garage is shared with Court6 and therefore appears much more than half-empty most of the time. Seems like we add maybe two a week. I would expect it to be mostly full (85% or so) in about 6 months at this rate. I was surprised too, I expected some huge traffice jam-style move-in day once closings started. Not that at all. Kind of a good thing I guess.

What does make me wonder, though, is that there is every indication that Courtside was less investor oriented. It has a lot that have been up for sale. So what is it going to be like when the Avenue opens? Mostly empty for a while, I bet. We'll need to be prepared for the inventory to sit on the market.

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monsoon Gigalopolis

monsoon

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..... Mostly empty for a while, I bet. We'll need to be prepared for the inventory to sit on the market.

When 3 50+ story towers open, that will seem like nothing. Assuming 210 Trade, The Vue and the Rennasiance all get built. Then their is the 30 story place that Wachovia is alleged to be building.

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atlrvr Metropolitan Area

atlrvr

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How is Courtside coming along as far as occupants moving in? I have read accounts of condos in San Diego and Miami where a few people take residence, and they wonder why the rest of the building is quiet with no neighbors around... the cause being the remaining empty units were bought by speculators, who continued flipping them to each other.

That's how it is here in Boston in my building. There are 35 units in my building, and there are about 12-13 units occupied, even though all but 1 have sold. I've met a number of my "ghost neighbors" who come buy to check up their unit that they are now begrudgingly having to rent because they couldn't fliip for a profit and aren't willing to eat the loss......it works out for me, because I'm renting while the unit owner is bleeding about $1,000 in cash a month.....I'll buy in a year or two when the ARMS start kicking in and the investors want the pain to end.

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A2 Town

A2

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Indeed. If they build all of the projects it will become a buyers market here in Charlotte. That is when it will be a good time to pick up a condo.

Precicely. Buy Low, Sell High. That is the name of the game. :)

A2

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A2 Town

A2

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This is a must read.....

http://www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot...ing-market.html

It deals with Miami, but I'd heed the message in regards to anyone thinking about flipping condos here.

This is directly from the above listed article and the direct reason that more "wealth" will be lost between now and 2010 than there ever was in the market meltdown of 2000

ARMS - Ouch. What more can you say. With a trillion dollars in debt a year coming due for refinancing, what

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ElricSeven Hamlet

ElricSeven

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I don't think there's cause for this much alarm, but a handful of speculators will lose some cash in the overheated markets. I think Charlotte, as a whole, will be fine. People need to live somewhere and have more budget flexibility than one might think to swallow increases in housing costs.

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MZT Burg

MZT

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But does Charlotte really have room in it's market for two (maybe 3) 50+ story residential towers? There does seem to be some chin scratching about this, with the possibility that 210 Trade is capturing much of the mindshare of people in a buying mood.

Also, if a condo glut is coming, The Park really better get those permitting issues resolved. Otherwise it could receive the distinction of being a project delayed TWO times because of economic shifts.

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A2 Town

A2

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I don't think there's cause for this much alarm, but a handful of speculators will lose some cash in the overheated markets. I think Charlotte, as a whole, will be fine. People need to live somewhere and have more budget flexibility than one might think to swallow increases in housing costs.

I sure hope so. But there is more to it than just a few speculators that are going to get burned. This country is 8.4Trillion dollars in debt, that means we have to come up wth roughtl 3.5 BILLION A DAY just to pay our Interest.

One thing that I rarely speak to is the fact that the Baby Boomers are getting to go into retirement in droves. This does TWO major things.

1)It sucks money out of Stock and Equities

2) It puts a strain on unfunded liabilites such as Social Security and Medicade/Medicare that is right now a figure of OVER 70,000,000,000,000 (That is 70 Trillion dollars)

My questions is where in the HELL does this county come up with that kind of money. Simple, they either raise taxes or simply let go of the system all together.

WE CAN'T AFFORD IT!

The system and the country are Bankrupt. The only thing keeping the wheels from falling off is the misleading financial media and large infusions of cash that have no backing except for possibly B-52 bombers and troops scatter round the globe.

One great exapmle was the market today. The DOW went up 120 points becasue the GDP is trending down ! So what is Bad for Main Street is Good for Wall Street ?! ;)

The media pumps up the idea that a slowing economy will force the FED to stop raising rates and thus "irrational exhubrence" continues.

There are also many who suggest the the fall of the dollar is a good thing, since our exports become cheaper to other countries.

One problem, we hardly export anthing except for jobs and debt!

We are the smug, arrogant, pompous, consumers on the world stage. We don't care about much except our foreign aoutos, gas-guzzling SUV's, Lattes, and home on the lake. (no offense to my friends onthe lake of course. :rolleyes: )

We have a negative savings rate, bloated credit card debt, and act as though all is well. Unfortunately, all is not well. Our Grandparents and their parents were much wiser. They would roll over in their graves if they know the sad state of our country. We used to be a country of manufactoring and savers. Now we are a country of spenders, and squanders.

FWIW real wages are falling and the cost of everything is rising. Bad Problem.

For all those who really want to know what is going on follow the price of GOLD (ie Real Money). It is the barometer that lets us know there is economic, inflationary, and geo-political unrest. It is CHEAP right now at 630! It will triple from this level in the next two to three years. I sure hope I am wrong, but don't see a way out of our fture demise.

A2

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A2 Town

A2

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Back to topic 210 Trade and VUE WILL be built housing glut or not. 210 is already well underway. I feel that VUE will start in the next few months. After these towers are erected and the selected others that we all know about are started, then I think we will see a MAJOR slow down.

I think there might be a shift to Apartment towers going forward. So Charlotte, albeit insulated, is not immune to a National Problem.

A2

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monsoon Gigalopolis

monsoon

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Maybe, but if the Israel/Lebanon situation sprials into a larger conflict that shuts off the oil supply then that would most certainly push things over the edge. The house of cards that our currently economy resembles will come crashing down and as E7 has mentioned earlier, a lot of people will need to change their shorts.

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A2 Town

A2

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Maybe, but if the Israel/Lebanon situation sprials into a larger conflict that shuts off the oil supply then that would most certainly push things over the edge. The house of cards that our currently economy resembles will come crashing down and as E7 has mentioned earlier, a lot of people will need to change their shorts.

True. Of the charts and estimates I have seen, Oil could spike to 160-220 dollars per barrel, that is , if Iran and a few others were to jump in the mix. I am still looking for oil to consolidate here, and continue upward come the second half of the year. I think 80-100 dollars a barrel is entirely plauseable by this time next year (if not much sooner).

This also has to come into play since the cost of building towers are constantly going higher. Higher energy costs and the higher costs for materials eventually stope any justification of a project, if its profitabilty is questioned. This could shake out a lot of weak hands that might have has a shot at a project here in CLT.

Pete Verna is definately one of those weak hands that I would be referring to. He could not even get the tower erected in the midst of 1% Fed Fund Rates. This seems to be a HUGE problem for the smaller developer since their market is being swallowed up by bigger developers, who can, for all intents and purposes, build without secureing contracts. This would be developers like Novare, who eat people like Verna for Breakfast.

These guys do what they want when they want, due to size. They are like the Wal-mart or McDonalds of towers, so they can out price the small guy.

A2

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monsoon Gigalopolis

monsoon

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The last time the Israelies got into a major war with the Arabs was in 1973, and the Arabs cut off the oil to hurt the USA for their support of Israel. This effectively ended much economic activity for the rest of the 70s. (look at a stock market graph of that decade) It's happened before, it can happen again.

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