The Vue vs 210 Trade

[dubone]

I think the Vue actually has a little bit more detail on their website or at least the same amount as TTT.

I think if anything it is TTT that would be feeling the heat, as Vue has made (reportedly) a significant number of actual sales. But no doubt, Vue will try to keep the attention of that market to finish their sales with such a competitive product now starting their sales push.

[Unifour]

I hope at least one tower gets built that is over 50 stories. That is incredible for Charlotte that two are being put forward. I doubt if they both will get built right away however. One might be reduced in stories or not built just yet. However, as Charlotte continues to grow rapidly, more highrise residential will follow as it has in most other cities. They both may not be built in the near future, but in a few years, more will come I imagine.

[A2]

I hope at least one tower gets built that is over 50 stories. That is incredible for Charlotte that two are being put forward. I doubt if they both will get built right away however. One might be reduced in stories or not built just yet. However, as Charlotte continues to grow rapidly, more highrise residential will follow as it has in most other cities. They both may not be built in the near future, but in a few years, more will come I imagine.

Trust me both are going to be built. No scale downs, no delay's. Both will be on-time by 2008.

Even if there is a severe downturn in the Economy they WILL be built.

TTT is already U/C and Vue starts in just a few short months.

A2

[stateman99]

Both have been announce, and I beleive both announcements are legitimate. I also say both go up without problem or delay.

[Unifour]

Both have been announce, and I beleive both announcements are legitimate. I also say both go up without problem or delay.

I hope they both get built as well. If not, it will only be a matter of time before more are built, and with increasing speed.

[moving uptown]

im a newbie to charlotte and plan on buying in 210 trade whenever they begin sales.

a couple of things . . . we really have no idea of the prices of the condos of 210 trade other than 220-6 million. we can guestimate but does anyone have actual figures? also we cant really speculate as to the demand since there have been no sales yet.

the major thing i have to ask is what would be the likelihood of the vue or ttt dropping prices in a year or two years? suggesting if i bought in june would there be a realistic possibility that by move in the price could have fallen? or is there a greater likelihood that prices will have risen?

[monsoon]

......

the major thing i have to ask is what would be the likelihood of the vue or ttt dropping prices in a year or two years? suggesting if i bought in june would there be a realistic possibility that by move in the price could have fallen? or is there a greater likelihood that prices will have risen?

We have discussed this topic many times on UrbanPlanet and I recommend that you do some searches to get the various opinions on buying a condo in a "signature highrise tower". I think the general consensus here is that while everyone appreciates the towers for what they are, from an individual investment perspective, you are "rolling the dice". This is the first time something like this has been built in Charlotte and because of that, the first ones moving in will be taking the most risk on. If anything, two 50 story towers are going to put a lot of luxury condos in the market in Charlotte and it remains to be seen if there is a market to support it.

BTW, we are not here at UrbanPlanet to give advice on individual real estate investments. While we discuss the merits of a project, questions on if you should buy or not buy in a particular building are outside the scope of this forum. I suggest a real estate agent for that kind of advice.

[monsoon]

I was at a downtown dinner party this weekend where there were some people from the real estate community there. The conversation drifted to the downtown condo market and the prevailing opinion was that the Vue was too expensive for this market and they were not sure it would make it as currently proposed. On the other hand, everyone was 100% certain that 210 Trade would be built. I found it interesting as none of these people knew anything about us here so it as kind of an independent validation of the thinking of some here.

[Durhamite]

Aren't the units priced within range of each other, although 210 Trade currently has a more desirable location. I was under the impression that the Vue's problem was not sales, but the unique bldg structure that continually evolves to meet local specifications. ???????

[ElricSeven]

Aren't the units priced within range of each other, although 210 Trade currently has a more desirable location. I was under the impression that the Vue's problem was not sales, but the unique bldg structure that continually evolves to meet local specifications. ???????

No, although 210 trade is loathe to let you know the prices on everything at once, my sense is that they're significantly cheaper (perhaps 20%) than the Vue. Also, 210 Trade does not have the huge three-bedroom and more units that are really expensive not only on a per-square-foot basis, but overall. 210 Trade has only one and two-bedroom units. I think it was a good move for them.

[atlrvr]

Also, 210 Trade does not have the huge three-bedroom and more units that are really expensive not only on a per-square-foot basis, but overall. 210 Trade has only one and two-bedroom units. I think it was a good move for them.

I tend to agree, though I went in there before leaving town to check it out. I briefly toyed with the idea of selling my house and buying a unit in 210. I inquired about buying an adjoining 1 and 2 bedroom unit and having them combined. The answer was that the developer was not going to allow that, and I would have to seek permission from the HOA upon completion to combine them myself.....obviously the risk in being denied, and additional expense involved killed that notion.

Interestingly though, the sales agent I talked to said request to combine units was one of the most common questions that they were getting.

[Charlotte_native]

I was at a downtown dinner party this weekend where there were some people from the real estate community there. The conversation drifted to the downtown condo market and the prevailing opinion was that the Vue was too expensive for this market and they were not sure it would make it as currently proposed. On the other hand, everyone was 100% certain that 210 Trade would be built. I found it interesting as none of these people knew anything about us here so it as kind of an independent validation of the thinking of some here.

I've spoken with a couple of people in the Real Estate business in Charlotte, all support the center city developments that are taking place, and all worked in the center city market. One was a sales staffer for Helen Adams and their conversions downtown. One was a buyers agent for condos from Allen Tate. They all feel certain about 210 (dirt has moved afterall) and they felt certain about The Vue also.

They also did not read this site, I asked and brought it up, so I asked opinions about the "scare the buyer" theory proposed by The Vue. Literally they all laughed. I was told, and agree, that buyers are more apt to run to a project that is swiftly moving product because people want to be part of success. People also will move faster if they think they might miss out because of swift sales, not in spite of them. Is someone really going to tell their agent, "don't even look at 210, I hear all the best deals are gone...". Doubtful. They will tell their agent, "please tell me what is available at ______ and make their decision from that. None were aware of any project that stalled in sales because buyers thought the "best deals" were gone. For one, you can just look at a list for other projects and see if they have what you want or if they don't.

Furthermore, what is the "best deal" anyway? The cheapest? Someone with a lot of money that wants a penthouse doesn't care. The most expensive? Somenone on a budget can't buy that anyway. The reason there is product mix and unit mix in these is there are all kinds of buyers. Which buyers will be "scared off" when the units they don't want are sold?

Part of what these agents told me is they don't take many buyers to The Vue unless they specifically ask. The reason was that it was difficult to work with a buyer blind -- no lists of units, no lists of pricing, no website to go through preliminarily with their clients to begin the deicision making process. They also said the sales process, in the first week, at 210 was a nightmare and that the agents on staff were used to selling single family new construction (the staff is from BSI -- a division of Allen Tate) and didn't expect the onslaught that came after the announcement!

[ElricSeven]

Yeah, but 210's got a buyer blind also. It is infuriating. You have to point out specific ones. I'm a numbers person and want it all in the table in a big list so I can optimize.

[Charlotte_native]

Yeah, but 210's got a buyer blind also. It is infuriating. You have to point out specific ones. I'm a numbers person and want it all in the table in a big list so I can optimize.

The Avenue was similar, but a little more open, at least when you get into the sales office you can "see" the list of available units. Overall these are all selling well from an outsiders perspective -- I only think it is some on here and some in the business that feel any skeptism, ask Joe Blow on the street and they don't think about it.

I think they will all be built~!

[monsoon]

... ask Joe Blow on the street and they don't think about it.

If Joe Blow is a euphemism for the average person, then ...

it's my guess that Joe Blow does not think about it because he simply isn't in the market for something as expensive as the Vue.

[dubone]

And remember that the Vue is marketing to women, so it might be Jane Blow. Pluralize at your own risk.

[swh1972]

And remember that the Vue is marketing to women, so it might be Jane Blow. Pluralize at your own risk.

Now that is funny.

[turbocraig]

I wonder if this "announcement" will have any affect on what we see constructed/scrapped/altered/etc. Someone like C_n is probably aware of this turning of the tide.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/25/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

Should we think that Charlotte is somewhat more isolated vs. national trends? I've heard that mentioned before, but wonder how true it really is. For those 'scraper enthusiasts among us (right here), I hope this isn't quite as ominous as it might sound.

[browngeo]

Enough said..

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/hous...charlotte_x.htm

Healthy...maybe not for 50 story towers like Vue but everything else looks pretty solid

[A2]

I wonder if this "announcement" will have any affect on what we see constructed/scrapped/altered/etc. Someone like C_n is probably aware of this turning of the tide.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/25/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

Should we think that Charlotte is somewhat more isolated vs. national trends? I've heard that mentioned before, but wonder how true it really is. For those 'scraper enthusiasts among us (right here), I hope this isn't quite as ominous as it might sound.

Charlotte is insulated, but not immune for the wrath of the markets that will be upon us 1stQuarter of 2007.

(FWIW, I believe ALL projects announced thus far will be built, including VUE even in the midst of the NASTY downturn that awaits us all. Peace)

Here is a chart of one of the larger Homebuilders Beazer. From 85 to 40 baby. More room to "short" IMO. This stock aint worth 10 bucks!!!!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/...time=&freq=

this is just over the last 6 months. The Home sector of the market has cratered over 50% !

Hmmmm..... Arn't these guys suppose to be building a 20 acre site near Uptown.

A2

[MZT]

Right now, it seems like only the poorly thought-out projects in Charlotte are suffering or being withdrawn. A bigger concern I think should be how many flippers from out of state bought units here, because their own markets were overheating. I've bought a few SFR's here as rentals, but plan to wait until there's a firm series of resales before I'd venture into uptown condos.

A2, watch out next year, as Sarbanes-Oxley hits the homebuilders having to revalue unsold inventory. Hooboy. Ya know how many of the top 10 builders that were in business in 1990, survived THAT bust? (You don't need any fingers to count them).

[Charlotte_native]

Right now, it seems like only the poorly thought-out projects in Charlotte are suffering or being withdrawn. A bigger concern I think should be how many flippers from out of state bought units here, because their own markets were overheating. I've bought a few SFR's here as rentals, but plan to wait until there's a firm series of resales before I'd venture into uptown condos.

A2, watch out next year, as Sarbanes-Oxley hits the homebuilders having to revalue unsold inventory. Hooboy. Ya know how many of the top 10 builders that were in business in 1990, survived THAT bust? (You don't need any fingers to count them).

I personally feel that the "flippers" of center city condos are the only ones really risking much. There are quite a few condos that are either going to hit the market for sale when these are done or for rent. When this happens who knows what the market will bear in 1 - 2 years. I have definitely seen Courtside units overpriced or with astronomical rental rates -- same with Fifth & Poplar for rentals. Myself and friends have rentals and some investment property, I would never buy a new or luxury condo for an investment. You CAN make good money, but you can lose it also. Way too risky when neighborhoods abound with great investment potential with no where near the risk. I think everyone just heard about people in Las Vegas, Miami, Cali, etc., making good money flipping condos and they assume it will work here. It might, but I will be surprised.

On the other hand I don't think anyone buying (myself included) a condo to live in downtown will risk much at all -- I have no assumptions or need for my condo to appreciate, though I would appreciate it, it is not why I am buying. I don't feel condo prices will drop, but even if they go flat after towers are done investors will be nailed. If they go flat after I move in I don't care, I'll be there for years.

[ElricSeven]

I personally feel that the "flippers" of center city condos are the only ones really risking much. There are quite a few condos that are either going to hit the market for sale when these are done or for rent. When this happens who knows what the market will bear in 1 - 2 years. I have definitely seen Courtside units overpriced or with astronomical rental rates -- same with Fifth & Poplar for rentals. Myself and friends have rentals and some investment property, I would never buy a new or luxury condo for an investment. You CAN make good money, but you can lose it also. Way too risky when neighborhoods abound with great investment potential with no where near the risk. I think everyone just heard about people in Las Vegas, Miami, Cali, etc., making good money flipping condos and they assume it will work here. It might, but I will be surprised.

On the other hand I don't think anyone buying (myself included) a condo to live in downtown will risk much at all -- I have no assumptions or need for my condo to appreciate, though I would appreciate it, it is not why I am buying. I don't feel condo prices will drop, but even if they go flat after towers are done investors will be nailed. If they go flat after I move in I don't care, I'll be there for years.

Enough flippers, though, and someone buckles, files b-ruptcy and then there might be a fire sale on a few places. That puts downward pressure on the values and a chain reaction occurs. It can happen. I've seen it out at the Yachtsman condos on lake wylie. Appraised values went from $180K plus to $120K in less than a week after one investor with 7 units went bankrupt. Imagine if you bough at $180K, you'd need to change your shorts after receiving the news.

[Charlotte_native]

Enough flippers, though, and someone buckles, files b-ruptcy and then there might be a fire sale on a few places. That puts downward pressure on the values and a chain reaction occurs. It can happen. I've seen it out at the Yachtsman condos on lake wylie. Appraised values went from $180K plus to $120K in less than a week after one investor with 7 units went bankrupt. Imagine if you bough at $180K, you'd need to change your shorts after receiving the news.

Interesting you bring up The Yachtsman -- I have a condo there -- bought it out of foreclosure. You are absolutely right in this, but I don't think this same scenario would happen in center city and bring prices below what things are selling for, but could flat-line for sometime. Again, if you are a homeowner who does not need to sell, it won't really affect you. I do think, still, that closing on high-end, expensive condos and expecting to put them right back on the market based on:

Your purchase price + your closing costs + commissions to resell + profit that makes the venture worthwhile = price that might not make sense in a market with many other condos listed.

As for The Yachtsman -- special circumstances -- the "investor" that went bankrupt was the developer himself who had flipped and flipped his properties to himself, various LLC's of his, and back again. Check polaris records, you will see "sales" between the same groups. This was done before the banks were really watching for mortgage fraud and checking LLC's and title closely. He tanked the complex for two years, but prices now are back where they were, some a bit higher.

[ElricSeven]

Interesting you bring up The Yachtsman -- I have a condo there -- bought it out of foreclosure. You are absolutely right in this, but I don't think this same scenario would happen in center city and bring prices below what things are selling for, but could flat-line for sometime. Again, if you are a homeowner who does not need to sell, it won't really affect you. I do think, still, that closing on high-end, expensive condos and expecting to put them right back on the market based on:

Your purchase price + your closing costs + commissions to resell + profit that makes the venture worthwhile = price that might not make sense in a market with many other condos listed.

As for The Yachtsman -- special circumstances -- the "investor" that went bankrupt was the developer himself who had flipped and flipped his properties to himself, various LLC's of his, and back again. Check polaris records, you will see "sales" between the same groups. This was done before the banks were really watching for mortgage fraud and checking LLC's and title closely. He tanked the complex for two years, but prices now are back where they were, some a bit higher.

I do think the same thing could happen Uptown though. I've learned that there are people who bought three and four units in Courtside. I was a bit taken aback by this when I heard it. I thought that there was an effort to control investors, but seeing the 25 or so lockboxes that are on the garage entrance, I'm starting to wonder if there's a house of cards being built here.