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monsoon

25,000 to Mecklenburg County in just one Year

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I was inspired look at the official population estimates for Mecklenburg county, by A2, and noticed that almost 25,000 people moved into the county in a 1 year period between mid 2004 & 2005. That is pretty significant when you consider the 2 urban counties that comprise the Atlanta urban area, and which is significantly larger geographically, only added about 10,000 people during the same period.

This is pretty significant when you consider that the ATL metro is 3X the size of CLT, but the Charlotte urban core is growing at a faster rate and if this continues, will have more people than Fulton county. One could conclude that efforts to contain sprawl are meeting with some success.

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But is that because more are moving inside Charlotte city limits or because Meck. has so much unused space to fill in. I know we are doing wonderful things with our core, but the sprawl continues to spread. There's really no way to completely stop it, maybe gas prices and other factors will continue to change peoples minds.

I really hope it does. I took this picture a couple weeks ago when I was working down in the Palisades. This developement if friggin huge, and seems to go on forever with cookie cutter mansions. Its depressing, and I took this shot because this scene was even more depressing. This machine was knocking down these trees like a kid stepping on a dandelion. In the 15 minutes I watched he probably took down 5 trees. I cant imagine how many acres of forest we're loosing just from this one development...

4-18-06002.jpg

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I don't know where the Palisades is located, but the city of Charlotte needs better zoning controls.

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Assuming last year's growth rate held then the metro will look like this in July.

2006 Charlotte Metro Population Estimate

  • Cabarrus - 154K

  • Gaston - 198K

  • Mecklenburg - 822K

  • Anson - 25K (it is losing people)

  • Union - 173K

  • York - 206K (using A2's TV estimate)

  • Total - 1.578 million

It's interesting the largest county in the Charlotte MSA outside of Meck is in South Carolina.

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It would be interesting to know where most newcomers are coming from. I do know more and more Buffalo'ites are calling Charlotte home.

In regards to Anson County losing population, it is in all part with Richmond & Scotland counties in the stagnent economy category. Wadesboro is just too far enough away for most people to commute all the way to Charlotte. I think once the Monroe bypass is completed, Anson County/Wadesboro may see a turn around.

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The Palisades is a discouraging thing to see. I drove out there, curious to see how the developer made use of the relatively high land there -- but the houses are crowded so close together, you don't really get any feeling of space looking out from one hill to another. You're just looking at the next wall of another house. Sad.

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The Palisades is the new development in SW Meck near Lake Wylie. It is supposed to be very environmentally friendly and good use of space with lots of open areas, but I suppose we will see how it turns out. I think of Iredell County as being more in the CLT metro than Anson. I would include that instead.

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The Palisades is the new development in SW Meck near Lake Wylie. It is supposed to be very environmentally friendly and good use of space with lots of open areas, but I suppose we will see how it turns out. I think of Iredell County as being more in the CLT metro than Anson. I would include that instead.

or even Lasncaster for that matter. Both border Meck, but are not even included ;) Anson is in the middle of nowhere and does not even border us. I know MSA's are based on commuting patterns, but that is why I just go with CSA numbers + MSA divide by two and wolla ~2.05M. I think in 2010 we definately pick up Lancaster, I think Iredell still is not going to be included since Stateville and W/S have a large influence on the county.

A2

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Good call A2, I definitely agree Lancaster should be included too. Especially seeing how it's so close to the fast-growing Ballantyne area.

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According to all of my number crunching the MSA for 2010 (w/Lancaster, which we should pick up) should be right at 2M, maybe a tad higher.

The 2010 Metro region (CSA, 13 county region) should be roughly 2.6M.

I could be a touch off, but I doubt it. If anything I am probably being conservative. If metro's numbers hold true (25K in 12 months) ,we would add another 100K in the next four years, just in Meck. This would bring us (Meck County) knocking on the door of 1,000,000. FWIW, the county site has Meck at 1M by 2010/2011. I know they are a bit more optomistic, but even so, I think it could easily happen.

http://www.charlottechamber.com/content.cf...186#Projections

A2

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I was inspired look at the official population estimates for Mecklenburg county, by A2, and noticed that almost 25,000 people moved into the county in a 1 year period between mid 2004 & 2005. That is pretty significant when you consider the 2 urban counties that comprise the Atlanta urban area, and which is significantly larger geographically, only added about 10,000 people during the same period.

This is pretty significant when you consider that the ATL metro is 3X the size of CLT, but the Charlotte urban core is growing at a faster rate and if this continues, will have more people than Fulton county. One could conclude that efforts to contain sprawl are meeting with some success.

I'm curious Metro.m....what source did you use? If one looks at wikipedia, Fulton and Mecklenburg are almost identical in land area. Also, if we use the census' own numbers, Fulton grew by more than 10,000 people. It's 2004 to 2005 population went from 814,438 to 915,623. Did Fulton's population grow by 101,185? I'm not quite sure but the census was proven that it's initial numbers 2005 were incorrect and they changed them. I say all that to say that one cannot say for sure that both Fulton and Dekalb's numbers grew for a combined 10,000 people. You are correct though in saying that Mecklenburg did grow by almost 25,000. It's 2004 to 2005 numbers went from 771,617 to 796,372. Quite impressive.

Source for Mecklenburg's 2004 numbers.

Source for Fulton's 2004 numbers.

2005 numbers can of course be obtained from Census' website.

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I live in Tega Cay which is right near all of the areas you guys are talking about. Lancaster Co. is exploding going down 521 I think it is, where it backs up to Ballentyne. As for the Palisades, I think they are technically located in York Co., S.C. I could be wrong though, when I drive down 160 and 49 going to Lake Wylie (where the Palisades is) the road goes in and out of York and Meck. several times.

Also, there is a tennis tournament that is coming to the Palisades in September with John McEnroe and Jim Courier among others.

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Assuming last year's growth rate held then the metro will look like this in July.

2006 Charlotte Metro Population Estimate

  • Cabarrus - 154K

  • Gaston - 198K

  • Mecklenburg - 822K

  • Anson - 25K (it is losing people)

  • Union - 173K

  • York - 206K (using A2's TV estimate)

  • Total - 1.578 million

It's interesting the largest county in the Charlotte MSA outside of Meck is in South Carolina.

With the rate that York County and Rock Hill have been growing lately, it won't be long until the MSA designation becomes the "Charlotte-Rock Hill-Gastonia (or Concord) NC-SC" MSA--maybe even before the next census.

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I was just wondering, will Rowan County ever be apart of the Charlotte MSA? If so, how long will it take Rowan to be considered in the MSA?

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It's 2004 to 2005 population went from 814,438 to 915,623. Did Fulton's population grow by 101,185? I'm not quite sure but the census was proven that it's initial numbers 2005 were incorrect and they changed them. I say all that to say that one cannot say for sure that both Fulton and Dekalb's numbers grew for a combined 10,000 people.

according the Census website you refered to, Dekalb and Fulton combined grew by roughly 13,000. The 814,438 is from the 2000 census so your 101, 185 is actually over a span of 5 years. Definetly still alot of growth though.

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I'm curious Metro.m....what source did you use? .......

I used the 2005 Census Estimates found on their estimates pagehere. I have been told many times the Atlanta urban area includes both Fulton and Dekalb so I included both in my comparison.

That shows the following Population Change from 2004 - 2005

  • Fulton +9,821

  • Dekalb +3,624

  • Total = 13.5K Sorry, I left off the Dekalb #s above.

Land Area

  • Fulton - 529 sq Miles

  • Dekalb - 268 sq miles

  • Atlanta Urban Area - 797 sq miles

  • Mecklenburg County - 526 sq miles

Hence my claims above. Mecklenburg is in a much smaller metro but added almost 2x as many people to its urban core than Atlanta, despite the fact that its urban core is significantly smaller geographically. Of course different people will interpret these results differently, but this is my interpretation.

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WOW, I can only do a fast reply....

Anyway, I see where you got your numbers. Very good. 25,000 in one year is impressive as I said above.

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I feel fortunate to live in an area with job and population growth. The economy is weakening in other regions of the country. It's not showing up in the offical government reports, (yet) but just give it some more months. :unsure:

Part of the reason I sold my home in California and moved, was that I could sense the real estate market there was becoming a speculative bubble. I had no idea it could last for 3 more years... but that just provided more fuel for the BUST that's going to happen, and I don't regret getting out early.

At least here, we've just had rational, single digit appreciation and it's still a normal market. This is a fairly stable and investment-worthy place to live. (I just wish the taxes I have to pay were buying better public schools.)

Check out articles like this one

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...andon-ship.html

How can that kind of overbuilding and speculation be called healthy? Surf around ... Follow the other blogs... and you can read about people looking for "safe" places to sell and move to. I see Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta and some cities in Texas and the Midwest commonly mentioned. They are the destinations for people seeking normalcy, fair claimates, and afforable standards of living again.

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I live in suburban DC and haven't bought yet because I sense the bubble is about to burst. They are still building condos everywhere, but they are staying on the market longer and longer. It is a tense time to be a seller, exciting time to be a buyer.

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Well, in DC the economy is so good pretty much all the time because of the large federal government presence. I don't know how much of a bubble will burst with that economy, but you probably know it better than I do, so yeah.

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Also, when bubbles burst, it is when people are trying to sell as fast as they can. Does that really happen with housing? Will there be a lot of people moving to hotels and apartments just to get out of owning a house?

I can see a plateau or slip dip in values as people can no longer afford the real estate, but otherwise it doesn't seem like things can be so bad without a catestrophic change.

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Well, in DC the economy is so good pretty much all the time because of the large federal government presence. I don't know how much of a bubble will burst with that economy, but you probably know it better than I do, so yeah.

Well actually these are the only kind of places were you hear about property seculation, house flippers and real estate bubbles.

Also, when bubbles burst, it is when people are trying to sell as fast as they can. Does that really happen with housing? Will there be a lot of people moving to hotels and apartments just to get out of owning a house?

Yes this is exactly what happens. People made irrational decisions that caused the bubble in the first place, they will do it again to get out before they lose their money.

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DId anyone see Nightline last night? They had a story on the condo market cooling in San Diego. They said condos were staying on the market much longer than just a few month ago and sellers don't want to come down on their prices and buyers are not buying.

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I know MSA's are based on commuting patterns

US metropolitan areas are based on commuters and economic and social ties to the central communities. People in Gastonia are socially and economically tied to Charlotte, and people farther west are socially and economically tied to both Gastonia and Charlotte, which is why metro areas spread. Thier definition is altogether proper, I think.

Mecklenburg continues to surprise with this high growth rate for a large county, but it's still not fully developed. There is still plenty of room to add in the extreme western and southern portions, and some still vacant land in the eastern edge. However, in other metros, as the core county "matures" the growth must spread further for the metro to continue growing rapidly. Those counties grow rapidly until they reach maturity, and then slow. The counties further from those then follow suit. This process often takes decades. Marxist eco-prophets have distorted the data to suggest that spreading cities is bad, but in fact is natural and facilitates a healthier environment than smaller, compacted, congested, polluted cities. Contrary to what is often reported, the more social engineering that is forced onto a city, the more expensive and polluted they become. The more a city spreads, the less the congestion and pollution. However, they can spread better than they are today, and this new trend of cookie cutter homes and everything barren and looks the same is an abomination.

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I feel fortunate to live in an area with job and population growth. The economy is weakening in other regions of the country. It's not showing up in the offical government reports, (yet) but just give it some more months. :unsure:

Part of the reason I sold my home in California and moved, was that I could sense the real estate market there was becoming a speculative bubble. I had no idea it could last for 3 more years... but that just provided more fuel for the BUST that's going to happen, and I don't regret getting out early.

At least here, we've just had rational, single digit appreciation and it's still a normal market. This is a fairly stable and investment-worthy place to live. (I just wish the taxes I have to pay were buying better public schools.)

Check out articles like this one

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...andon-ship.html

How can that kind of overbuilding and speculation be called healthy? Surf around ... Follow the other blogs... and you can read about people looking for "safe" places to sell and move to. I see Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta and some cities in Texas and the Midwest commonly mentioned. They are the destinations for people seeking normalcy, fair claimates, and afforable standards of living again.

MZT you are a VERY smart person from what I gather. I appreciate your honesty and personal touch to the thread. I am in the same camp you are in. I think the US is in for a RUDE awakening. The Real Estate Bubble will pop. The people most impacted are already seeking safer investments. You are right CLT,ATL, RAL, and other cties in the SE and even TX are viewed as safe havens due to their lack of participation in appreciation.

One thing that I noted as VERY impressive is that CLT (according to FOX news) now ranks as the 13th largest housing market in the US. This is Very impressive when you realize that we are only the 20th largest city. This bodes well for our continued strength going forward.

As for the high rise boom, my prediction is a continuation until 2008. Then the market will be tight. There are still price points the middle class just can't afford. Once we hit hard times the condo craze will cool and the symbol of success will be LAND. This will impact those who might have been interested in living Uptown.

I feel very strongly in a serious market correction and have made my sentiment known to most here. I have been in precious metals as a hedge against what I think is going to be the fall out of the US economy.

Please note, I am not trying to scare people, but have to be realistic when every day the dollar weakens, oil goes higher, and the National Debt is knocking on the door of 10,000,000,000,000 (That would be Ten Trillion). We as a nation are in trouble. Forclsoures are starting to come in at a fast & furious rate. The typical American now carries the most debt they have in a generation and for the first time in US history we have a NEGATIVE savings rate.

Inflation is brathing down the back of our necks so bad that my hair is standing on end.

Not to get polictical, but the current administration is cuttng taxes and spending more money than ANY can imagine. Most of the debt belongs to foreign contries that are getting a bit nervous of the American way of life. The writing is on the wall. Sorry to be a party pooper, but Economics are a reality and now it is time to pay the piper.

Once again I want to reiterate, things are not as great as people would leave you to believe (including the gov't), but Charlotte can weather the storm much better than say, Boston, Miami, or Southern Cal.

BUT IT WILL BE IMPACTED !

A2

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