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voyager12

Could NC become a swing state?

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Regardless of personal political affiliation, I think North Carolina has the biggest potential of any southern state to move from from bright red to swing state similar to Ohio or FL in the future. Mainly due to the influx of northerners that is slowly changing the state's political climate. NC will never be blue but I think it will continue to evolve from ultraconservative to moderate.

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Regardless of personal political affiliation, I think North Carolina has the biggest potential of any southern state to move from from bright red to swing state similar to Ohio or FL in the future. Mainly due to the influx of northerners that is slowly changing the state's political climate. NC will never be blue but I think it will continue to evolve from ultraconservative to moderate.

In the near-past, NC was a pretty progressive state politically (compared to her neighbors - very progressive) which make me wonder, and I wish I had solid data, but I wonder if NC's shift to the Right isn't -due to the influx of conservative Northerners?

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There was a recent article in the NYT talking about that same subject Phillydog. I may be stereotyping a bit when I say that Northerners would be more Democratic but that has been the overall trend. I still think NC has potential to move moderate although its a nascent process you just have to look at the state's Senate representation to see that. I think quicker progress will and is being made on the local and state levels which can eventually lead to federal changes.

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I think the real question is can the Democrats come up with a platform that will appeal to the voters here. Let's keep in mind the state didn't even get a chance to have a Presidential Primary for the Democrats in the last election as Kerry had already been "annointed" the choice, and the democrats here had little choice in the matter. Nobody wants to participate in a party like that. Democrats have generally ignored NC for a long time. This despite the fact that we have a Governer who is a Democrat and the Democrats control the NC Legislature.

I think NC could be considered a swing state considering the makeup of our local offices, but as long as national democrats remain spineless, with no platform except "we hate bush" then they stand little chance of winning office here. When Kerry stood up and said right at the beginning of the election "I don't need the South to win" that did not sit too well with anyone in this state.

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Democrats do have a history writing off NC and the entire South. Although we have been getting a little bit more love from the national party as of late. Howard Dean has made several trips to NC this year and was recently in Charlotte. Markos Moulitzas founder of the Dailykos blog did a book tour through Asheville and the Triangle for his book "Crashing the Gate". I think conservative North Carolinians would be willing to consider voting for a centrist Dem like former gov Mark Warner in VA. Its all a moot discussion prezwise though because Hillary has a lock on the nomination.

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When Kerry stood up and said right at the beginning of the election "I don't need the South to win" that did not sit too well with anyone in this state.

What an idiot! Im sure that pissed off John Edwards

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NC's state legislature may be in for serious change post the 2010 census and its effects on redistricting. In the past, most NC residents lived in rural areas. Now the lion's share of the population lives in the urban areas, but the General Assembly continues to over-represent the rural population on a per capita basis. The next Census will increasingly shift representation of the population to districts with urban and suburban issues rather than rural ones. This will tend to push the state in a more moderate than conservative direction.

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I'd think the bigger impact would be from the Hispanic influx recently. There are at least some very right-wing Northeasterners, who would at least somewhat moderate the impact of left-wing Northeasterners, but I'd think that Hispanics would tend to vote strongly Democratic overall.

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NC will be blue in the next election...well it would be if the election systems weren't under republican control...

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I often wonder what type of political affiliation North Carolina attracts from other regions.

I think having the largest concentration of military personnel on the east coast is the main cause for the state's red shift. Consider the type of individual that's more comfortable living near a military base, or who has previously served and later becomes a resident here while looking for a career.

We get a skewed view of the incoming demographic, because most of us live in a major city. Those tend to attract a certain subset of incomers. A big chunk of our new citizens are soldiers. Or better yet, students from military colleges, looking for jobs.

North Carolina has some of the worst voter turnout, so it's hard to really know what people think from elections. A quick look on surveys suggests we're demographically a swing state right now. Registered democrats and republicans are about 50-50, and the percentage of both has been declining in favor of independants.

If I were to guess, I think we would be slightly more socially liberal than the other southern states, and slightly more economically liberal, but more conservative when it comes to foreign policy.

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I'd think the bigger impact would be from the Hispanic influx recently. There are at least some very right-wing Northeasterners, who would at least somewhat moderate the impact of left-wing Northeasterners, but I'd think that Hispanics would tend to vote strongly Democratic overall.

That depends. Most Hispanics tend to be of the conservative Catholic breed. With "immigration reform" being such a hot topic now, both parties want to use this issue to garner favor with Hispanics, more or less.

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I have also wondered about this. I'm not an ultra conservative, but I am conservative. I think the future of the nation as a whole is Democratic. The native born American population is aging and dying and will decline. If birth rates don't rise, people of European ancestry will all but vanish within a few hundred years. The hispanics are going to be the majority in the US just as Muslims are going to be the majority in Europe someday (because of the low birth rate among white Europeans). Hispanics still vote solidly Democrat, but Bush did get a larger share. If the Hispanics don't assimilate, and hold onto thier values and keep the cultural identity of the nations they came from, they may never adopt the conservative mainstream opinions. Mexico has strong socialist undercurrents in it's society, and since they are the future of the United States, I wonder if the voice of conservative reason won't vanish altogether.

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Regardless of personal political affiliation, I think North Carolina has the biggest potential of any southern state to move from from bright red to swing state similar to Ohio or FL in the future. Mainly due to the influx of northerners that is slowly changing the state's political climate. NC will never be blue but I think it will continue to evolve from ultraconservative to moderate.

Watch NC. As far as registered voters, the state is half half.

However, the state tends to vote Democratic in Gov races and split in Senator.

There is a lot of influx into the state all over and it is bringing in more liberal to middle road people.

Given the state of things for the past few years, it wouldn't take much for a few states to tip into democratic blue.

One can only hope - think blue.

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In order for NC to be a swing state the Dems need the right candidate. Edwards, the one-term candidate who used his Senate seat as a stepping stone, was not it. If the Democrats nominate the right person (someone like Evan Bayh, for instance) NC could easily be a swing state.

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... but more conservative when it comes to foreign policy.

Yeah, but when you break it down, "conservative when it comes to foreign policy" really just means bombing the pants off any countries President Bush can't pronounce the names of.

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Think Red. :thumbsup:

Yes. Red Socialism. Hispanics (mixed Mestizos) from south of the border tend to have more socialist views because they feel "oppressed" by the pure white Europeans of Spanish ancestry in those countries. Many still openly subscribe to the "we are oppressed by the evil whites" mentality wherever they go, and blame thier failures as people and nations on "gringos." This is why so many hate the United States with such a passion. Since there will soon be more of them than any other group the future is very red indeed. :sick:

Come to think of it, most first world nations are far more socialistic than the US. :sick::sick:

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:blink: I'll be heading back to the Triangle subforum then... catch ya.

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Yes. Red Socialism. Hispanics (mixed Mestizos) from south of the border tend to have more socialist views because they feel "oppressed" by the pure white Europeans of Spanish ancestry in those countries. Many still openly subscribe to the "we are oppressed by the evil whites" mentality wherever they go, and blame thier failures as people and nations on "gringos." This is why so many hate the United States with such a passion. Since there will soon be more of them than any other group the future is very red indeed. :sick:

Come to think of it, most first world nations are far more socialistic than the US. :sick::sick:

I think we should avoid stereotyping an entire continent and sub-continent, but if you look at it from their point of view, White Europeans have raped, pillaged, and subjugated these people for more than 500 years. There is a basis for the resentment. And even in modern times, the USA's actions in Central and South America have been anything but humane. US Policy there has been based on a mixture of fighting communists, supporting a broken drug policy and protecting US corporate interests that exploit the resources and labor. It's not something that good relations are based on.

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Think Red. :thumbsup:

I am convinced by the past 6 years of President Bush, that those two words are oxymorons.

No offense intended to anyone because I do like McCain at times.

NC and a few other states are probably fed up with the way things are going. Don't be surprised if NC, FL, OH, IN, NM, NV, AZ and maybe VA turn Blue. More telling signs will be available this November.

I'm looking at Mark Warner from Virginia for 2008 president nominee. (check out his record)

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I am convinced by the past 6 years of President Bush, that those two words are oxymorons.

No offense intended to anyone because I do like McCain at times.

NC and a few other states are probably fed up with the way things are going. Don't be surprised if NC, FL, OH, IN, NM, NV, AZ and maybe VA turn Blue. More telling signs will be available this November.

I'm looking at Mark Warner from Virginia for 2008 president nominee. (check out his record)

Mark Warner lacks the necessary experience to be President. He's only a one-term Governor with ZERO foreign policy experience. In my opinion, he's jumping the gun and cutting in line. He should run for Senate. He stands a good chance of beating John Warner, who may be retiring anyway, and George Allen. In fact, in a poll taken a few months back he was shown as beating Allen for his Senate seat.

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Red > Blue.

I should hope we don't switch.

I am convinced by the past 6 years of President Bush, that those two words are oxymorons.

Yeah, I agree Bush hasn't been the best. But Kerry would of been a whole lot worse.

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It really boils down to if the Democrats can nominate someone that appeals and address the needs of people in more than just 17 states. I simply don't understand why the NE liberal branch of this party is in control when most of the electoral votes are in the South and West now. A president from the NE has not been elected since 1960 (close to 50 years by the time the 2008 election occurs) and has been the reason for several losses by the Democratic party. John Kerry is but the latest example of this. For the Democrats to have lost the 2004 election as soundly as they did with a President as bad as Bush sitting in office speaks volumes as to how unappealing Democrats have become in the USA. They were once the party of the common people.

If Democrats want to win in places like NC they need to get rid of Howard Dean, shut down Hillary, and move their initial primaries to the South if they want to win back voters. This won't happen of course and if they nominate Hillary for President in 2008, the Republicans can simply run a department store dummy as their candidate be Hillary will surely lose the election.

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I am convinced by the past 6 years of President Bush, that those two words are oxymorons.

No offense intended to anyone because I do like McCain at times.

NC and a few other states are probably fed up with the way things are going. Don't be surprised if NC, FL, OH, IN, NM, NV, AZ and maybe VA turn Blue. More telling signs will be available this November.

I'm looking at Mark Warner from Virginia for 2008 president nominee. (check out his record)

Warner is a bad direction for the Democratic Party. He's too conservative. They're mistaking unsuccessful public image on their part for unpopular policies.

Republicans appeal more to their core constituents. Democrats certainly could, but they haven't for quite a long time, and the result is that these people are leaving the party and giving up on politics in many cases.

We need someone who is willing to make government more accountible, and roll back the measures taken by this current administration to bypass civil liberties. An environmentalist. Someone fiscally responsible. Someone who at least knows a decent amount of economic and governmental theory, instead of writing his own as he goes along.

They ran with a pair of moderates in the last election; they played the safest hand they possibly could, and it failed in the face of one of the most unsuccessful presidents ever. It doesn't matter what the policies on the card are, the media will portray him as the darkest shade of dark blue, and the most wretched type of traitor to the 'american way of life', whatever he is, whomever he is.

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