2006 Louisiana Hurricane Season

[NCB]

Well, hurricane season officially started today, and hopefully, this thread won't have to be used very much this year. I'd like to keep all talk of things like levee's, hurricane evacuation plans, etc. out of this thread, and stick to talk about weather patterns affecting hurricane zones, storms developing in hurricane zones, and of course, individual tropical storms themselves.

[richyb83]

Yeah Nate, me too. I hope this tread will have a limited amount of post on it . Right now high-pressure is in control of the Gulf of Mexico causing sinking air, which means beautiful weather for the Gulf Coast region. An active zone in June is the NW Carribbean. Right now there is a weak-low with a trough there that extends through Cuba and the Bahamas. Rainy weather has been reported for a couple of days in Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and as far east as Haiti. Good news ! Conditions are NOT favorable for development. Upper-level winds are too strong in that region. Shearing the cloud tops off. Just a rain maker.

[richyb83]

That same area of disturbed weather along a (old frontal boundry) mentioned in the post above has remained persistent over the NW Carribbean. Conditions are becoming more favorable bec. the upper-level winds are decreasing. The disturbance is near the Yucatan and could move into the southern Gulf later this weekend. This area is being closely monitored. An Air Force Recon plane could fly into the area Saturday if nessesary.

http://batonrouge.cox.net/cci/newslocal/lo...ticleId=1538745

[NCB]

^Yea it looks like the system will enter the gulf sometime early this weekend. At this point, most models have the storms headed north and then slightly northeast towards Florida, around Apalachicola. But we definately need to keep an eye on this one.

[SlidellWX]

Right now...I'm not very worried about this system. 2 scenarios could play out...but in the long run we will be protected by either a ridge...or a front swiging through on Monday. At most...I'm expecting a weak tropical storm...due to the amount of shear expected in the region. Although the system will have about a 48 hour window of opportunity for development...it will be a very slow process. It also appears to me that the center of the low is becoming more focused toward the Cayman Islands and southwest Cuba. Any eastern change will point toward a FL landfall in the next 72 to 96 hours.

At this time...most models are pointing toward a strong trough diving into the Mid-Atlantic states...while a ridge remains parked over the TX and the western Gulf. The system should follow a gap...or weakness caused by the deepening East Coast trough and merge with the frontal boundary that will move into our region somewhere between Appalachicola and Tampa. In fact...I would be surprised to see cloud cover from this system in SE LA if it holds to current thinking.

Since I work for the NWS...I'll keep y'all posted if anything changes.

[dimebag1980]

Right now...I'm not very worried about this system. 2 scenarios could play out...but in the long run we will be protected by either a ridge...or a front swiging through on Monday. At most...I'm expecting a weak tropical storm...due to the amount of shear expected in the region. Although the system will have about a 48 hour window of opportunity for development...it will be a very slow process. It also appears to me that the center of the low is becoming more focused toward the Cayman Islands and southwest Cuba. Any eastern change will point toward a FL landfall in the next 72 to 96 hours.

At this time...most models are pointing toward a strong trough diving into the Mid-Atlantic states...while a ridge remains parked over the TX and the western Gulf. The system should follow a gap...or weakness caused by the deepening East Coast trough and merge with the frontal boundary that will move into our region somewhere between Appalachicola and Tampa. In fact...I would be surprised to see cloud cover from this system in SE LA if it holds to current thinking.

Since I work for the NWS...I'll keep y'all posted if anything changes.

It's good to have an official NWS person (I'm assuming you're a Meteorologist) in the house.

[NCB]

It's good to have an official NWS person (I'm assuming you're a Meteorologist) in the house.

Definately. Thanks a lot for the updates and info, Slidell.

[NCB]

Here are some recent satellite views of Tropical Despression One:

And here is the projected storm path:

[richyb83]

Thanks for the info. Unfortunately the tropical system lessens the rain chances around here . We are scorched/bone dry. But Florida could really use the rain to put-out those fires. A weak T.S. may be what the doctor ordered for them.

[NCB]

Thanks for the info. Unfortunately the tropical system lessens the rain chances around here . We are scorched/bone dry. But Florida could really use the rain to put-out those fires. A weak T.S. may be what the doctor ordered for them.

Yea we are extremely dry over here, but Florida is in an even worse situation. The projected path can obviously shift quite a bit, but if this storm does go that way, hopefully the rain helps them with all of their brush and forest fires.

[richyb83]

Your are exactly right Nate. BTW thanks for the cool infared satellite pics you posted. Some of that tropical moisture was supposed to drift in our direction, increasing our rain chances Tues. and Wed before this low started developing.

What a treat and a blessing to have SlidellWX from the NWS on board here with us. I am just a "weather-man-wanna- be".

Weather just fascinates me !

[NCB]

Hey Slidell, I was hoping you could answer a question of mine. Alon504, who I'm sure you know from many forums, this one included, posted this over at SSP, and I was wondering what your opinion was:

Certainly have a ridge over us (New Orleans) now, which is keeping us hot and dry. And the ridge is getting pretty solid..it's been in place, now, for several weeks. Carl Arredondo, on WWL-TV, in New Orleans, says that if this ridge remains peristent, we could see a return to many East coast storms for this season, as has been discussed by quite a few mets and specialists. As Carl says, "Not to say that we won't have any storms in the Gulf, but, the ridge, as it is now, will be a good thing for the Northern Central Gulf. It's still early, but, we are heading into a Summer pattern, as June approaches, and these Summer ridges that develop are quite persistent and stubborn...it usually takes fronts or a major change in patterns to move these Summer ridges. We'll see...we've got some time, for sure, but, obviously, Summer is setting itself up, right now, as it does every year in early June. With the pattern as it is now, I'd be a helluva lot more worried if I lived in NYC, or the Outer banks, than living in Mobile or New Orleans. With the ridge, storms that make it into the GOM, will be pushed West to Texas, or will move up the East Coast.

I still havent learned enough about weather to gather all of that info and come up with a logical opinion, or at least I think so. I do remember hearing Carl Arredondo talk about something like this, but I also remember having a similar situation at the beginning of hurricane season last year. What do you think?

[richyb83]

As of 10:00 AM T.D. # 1 is now ALBERTO

ALBERTO is located at 23.9 N ; 88.1 W

335 miles west of Key West; 445 miles SSW of Apalachicola

Winds 45 MPH, with higher gust. 1004 millibars/ 29.65

Some slight strenghtening is possible.

Moving NW at 9 mph ; expected to turn North, then Northeast later tonight. Alberto is looking ragged with the area of T-Storms well to the NE of the center of circulation.

[NCB]

Tropical Storm Alberto seems to look even less organized than it did yesterday, and is expected to continue to weaken before making landfall in Florida. It may actually be great for florida, as it seems like Alberto is really just going to be a big thunderstorm, with moderate winds and could drop around 4.5 inches of rain over parts of Florida, which desperately need it.

[richyb83]

Alberto got alot better organized this morning becoming a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 70 mph. There was the possibility of it becoming a Cat.# 1 Hurricane(74 mph); however this aftrernoon the center is exposed on the southern side, so it may actually be weaking a little. Alberto is forecast to weaken to a depression in Georgia and the Carolinas before emerging out into the Atlantic near Cape Hatteras and becoming a T.S. again.

[NCB]

Parts of Florida are already getting hammered with rain:

[SlidellWX]

Sorry about the delay. Been a busy weekend...even with the storm not approaching us. Worked 12 hour shifts...so sleep was necessary when off. Lots of conference calls with the governor and state EOC in BTR.

Anyway...looks like the storm is doing exactly as expected as far as track is concerned. That damn loop current really fired up the storm overnight though.

As far as the ridge...he is basically correct. Right now...we have a very strong ridge centered over TX. This ridge is not going anywhere for the forseeable future since we're now into Summer...and rarely get strong fronts through this area. At the same time...there has been a fairly persistent trough over the Eastern United States. As a result...we have been in a northerly flow on the eastern edge of the ridge axis for the past 2 months. The result has been hot and dry conditions as northerly flow cuts off the deeper gulf moisture that we really need for afternoon thunderstorms. The only rain we tend to get with this pattern is from a Mesoscale Convective Complex. These are huge thunderstorm complexes that form in the Plains and dive south...following a moisture axis...until they fizzle out down here in the Gulf South. Western LA and Arkansas have seen quite a few of these this year...and we have just missed out on them here in SE LA.

What this means for us this tropical season...is that we are pretty protected from any tropical disturbances. They will either go west under the ridge and hit Mexico or south TX...or head east as they get picked up by the trough and go along the East Coast or into FL. This is what happened to Alberto.

We were not in the same situation last year. We had alot more rainfall last year...and were in a more typical summertime regime. With a strong Bermuda High in place...bringing deep southerly flow into the region. This Bermuda high stayed in place through October...thus we had a ton of storms in the Gulf.

Also...yes I'm a meteorologist. Attended the University of Oklahoma and have worked in the NWS for 5 years. Transferred to New Orleans in 2004 from Atlanta.

Not too happy about the OU/Rice game today. Boomer Sooner!

[NCB]

As far as the ridge...he is basically correct. Right now...we have a very strong ridge centered over TX. This ridge is not going anywhere for the forseeable future since we're now into Summer...and rarely get strong fronts through this area. At the same time...there has been a fairly persistent trough over the Eastern United States. As a result...we have been in a northerly flow on the eastern edge of the ridge axis for the past 2 months. The result has been hot and dry conditions as northerly flow cuts off the deeper gulf moisture that we really need for afternoon thunderstorms. The only rain we tend to get with this pattern is from a Mesoscale Convective Complex. These are huge thunderstorm complexes that form in the Plains and dive south...following a moisture axis...until they fizzle out down here in the Gulf South. Western LA and Arkansas have seen quite a few of these this year...and we have just missed out on them here in SE LA.

What this means for us this tropical season...is that we are pretty protected from any tropical disturbances. They will either go west under the ridge and hit Mexico or south TX...or head east as they get picked up by the trough and go along the East Coast or into FL. This is what happened to Alberto.

We were not in the same situation last year. We had alot more rainfall last year...and were in a more typical summertime regime. With a strong Bermuda High in place...bringing deep southerly flow into the region. This Bermuda high stayed in place through October...thus we had a ton of storms in the Gulf.

That is great to hear, thank you very much for the info! Just to make sure I've got everything strait, is this ridge likely to stick around for the rest/majority of hurricane season? And I guess I was wrong about having the same situation last year, I must be mixing things up. To be honest all of hurricane season last year before Katrina is just a giant blur.

Not too happy about the OU/Rice game today. Boomer Sooner!

Ah, you must've loved the '03 NCAA football National Championship Game, huh?

[richyb83]

Nate, It looks like those satelitte pics are updating simultaneously. The satelitte/radar pics (#16) are labeled "yesterday"4:43 , shouldn't that be today ? And look at your other post #14, it says June 11,which was Sunday;but the storm is off the map in Georgia; that's supposed to be today look at the bottom where the day is June 13(today); wondering if it's a problem with the webite or has the TWC satelitte/radar been updating ?

Wow what happened to your post where the storm was way down in the gulf ? They have disappeared.

[SlidellWX]

I would expect the blocking ridge to remain in place through at least August. After that...we start seeing the pattern change as we get stronger fronts diving down from the Canadian Provinces.

Yeah...that 2003 game was not a fun experience for me.

[NCB]

I would expect the blocking ridge to remain in place through at least August. After that...we start seeing the pattern change as we get stronger fronts diving down from the Canadian Provinces.

Yeah...that 2003 game was not a fun experience for me.

Good to know, thanks for the additional info.

And as an LSU fan, I really enjoyed the 2003 game.

[richyb83]

Just something to keep an eye on; nothing to be concerned with. The upper-level low in the NE Bahamas that has been hanging around for a couple of days. Wind shear has been tearing the system apart; however the shear is expected to weaken the low could drop to the surface as the system begins drifting West and WNW. Pressures are begining to fall.

[richyb83]

Good news. That weak system in the northern Bahamas moving toward Florida still has not developed. It will increase rain chances for the Southeast for a couple of days, and cause dangerous rip currents from Miami to Cape Hatteras.

[richyb83]

The tropical disturbance(mentioned on the two post above) moved back into the Atlantic in the Gulf Stream and has gotten better organized. It is nearing Cape Fear NC moving north. It's nearly a depression now and will cause additional flood watches from NC to NY. Aircraft will fly into the system later today.

[richyb83]

Sorry guys I wanted to keep this thread at the bottom of the list; but their is a Tropical Depression # 2 now 220 SSE of Cape Hatteras NC. No threat for the Gulf Region, but still worth a mention. The winds are only 35mph, and the circulation is small. It could become Tropical Storm Beryl ? soon, but should remain weak with dry-air to the west of the system. It is developming in the Gulf Stream(warmer water in Atlantic). The low is expected side swipe the Outer Banks, but remain over water, and head out to sea. A T.S. Watch in now in effect for Hatteras to Cape Lookout.