2006 Louisiana Hurricane Season

[dan326]

Hopefully Chris doesn't turn into anything big, or any other storm for that matter. All they do is halt progress.

[NCB]

According to WWL the storm is strengthening, and could continue to head toward us, but I'm well aware of the fact that they want to make it as dramatic as possible to keep people watching. Slidell, please keep us updated with news if you can.

[NCB]

Here is the current projected path, which again, could change drastically over the next few days:

It's interesting that the majority of the projected path maps I've seen have it going anywhere from south of Cuba to south Florida, but WWL's map has the northern boundry extended all the way up past Orlando.

[SlidellWX]

The official error map extends from Orlando to Jamaica...but it's really starting to look like this system will be visiting Haiti and Cuba later this week. The low over the Bahamas is holding put...which has allowed for the weak ridging over Chris and thus his development into a TS. However...there is still about 20 knots of shear from the low on the north side of the system...and some dry air getting entrained in. This has kept the storm rather small...and hindered any further development. We may see this storm become a minimal hurricane in the next 48 hours...but I do not forsee much strengthening beyond that. All of the data I've seen would lead me to believe that we will continue to see a strong ridge over the central US through next week. This will steer the system over Hispanola and Cuba and into the western Carribean toward Mexico over the next week and half. The official NHC track is to the right of most of the guidance out there...but they have begun to nudge it closer to the islands today. I would expect to see the track shift over the islands tomorrow as the guidance has been very consistent in that solution the last 24 hours.

I am still not concerned about this system affecting our area.

[NCB]

^Thanks for that info, Slidell, much appreciated. So if the current conditions continue, we could expect to see this system continue over Haiti and Cuba, and then on through the lower portion of the Gulf towards Mexico?

Keep us posted!

[richyb83]

Thanks for the latest update SlidellWX. Hopefully when/if Chris enters the Gulf it will stay well to our South and go into Mexico. It looks like the NHC was a little suprised that Chris strengthened as much as it has. At this point it was still only supposed to be a depression.

[NCB]

If you look at this storm track, you see that they predict a more westerly turn after Sunday:

[dimebag1980]

If you look at this storm track, you see that they predict a more westerly turn after Sunday:

Taking it off toward Mexico, I assume is what you're saying. That's the best scenario for New Orleans.

[NCB]

Taking it off toward Mexico, I assume is what you're saying. That's the best scenario for New Orleans.

Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying. If you notice TWC's track has also shifted further South as well.

[dimebag1980]

Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying. If you notice TWC's track has also shifted further South as well.

I hadn't really been following it, to be honest. I've just been hearing bits and pieces about it. If I lived down there I'd likely be glued to it, but I just feel so diconnected from it all the way up here. That is, until the next influx of people seeking refuge. That's when it really hits home and you realize what people are going through.

Weather used to keep my interest, but these days it bores me. I watch the 10:00 news until they start discussing the weather and then I find something else to watch, or something else to do in general. I wish it could keep my attention like it used to, though, because I never know what's going on anymore.

[SlidellWX]

Still looking like the blocking ridge will remain in place next week and steer this thing into Mexico or far south TX. In fact...the system has begun to trend more westward in the last few hours on satellite.

[NCB]

Still looking like the blocking ridge will remain in place next week and steer this thing into Mexico or far south TX. In fact...the system has begun to trend more westward in the last few hours on satellite.

Thats great. It looks like most of the forecast tracks continue to shift further South, away from Louisiana completely, so I hope it pans out that way. As much as I don't want to see a hurricane hit SE Louisiana, SW Louisiana really doesn't need anything again either. The news around Katrina is still so big that most people across the nation seem to have completely forgotten about Rita.

[NCB]

And here is the official latest NHC track for Chris:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT0.../030344W_sm.gif

[richyb83]

SW Louisiana really doesn't need anything again either. The news around Katrina is still so big that most people across the nation seem to have completely forgotten about Rita.

Yeah Rita was the step-child in this one. I feel bad the folks in SW La. have been forgotten. Where was Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton when you need them ?

Still looking like the blocking ridge will remain in place next week and steer this thing into Mexico or far south TX

That's one STRONG High-Pressure that's gonna hopefully keep Chris South; causing 102 degree temps in NYC today.

[dan326]

^Yep it's only a matter of time until the next catastrophy comes along. First the World Trade Centers, then then tsunami, then Katrina, and whatever else that had people breaking out the donation buckets.

[NCB]

Where was Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton when you need them ?

Where else? New Orleans of course. Most of the time "fighting" for pointless causes, all while accomplishing their goals of drawing attention to themselves.

[richyb83]

Great to see that Chris has weakened considerably today with max.substained winds of only 40 mph.

[NCB]

This is very good news!

Researchers revise down hurricane report

Article

[richyb83]

Tropical Depression Chris with winds of only 30mph is getting ripped-apart by an upper-level low to the northeast.

Actually Chris is sandwiched between two-upper level lows.

[richyb83]

*Tropical Storm Debby*

45 MPH max.substained winds; moving WNW at 18

Way-out in the tropical Atlantic 730 miles WSW of Cape Verde Islands. Expected to stay well away from land.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ml/025759.shtml?

5day

Also a strong tropical wave is 230 mile ESE of the Leeward Islands; moving WNW. It could become a Tropical Depression soon. The future Ernesto is not out of the question as it enters the Carribbean Sea over the next few days with no wind sheer to stop development.

Been a quiet season so far, this is about the time of year things start to pick-up. Hopefully the sheer in the tropics will continue?

[dimebag1980]

*Tropical Storm Debby*

45 MPH max.substained winds; moving WNW at 18

Way-out in the tropical Atlantic 730 miles WSW of Cape Verde Islands. Expected to stay well away from land.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...ml/025759.shtml?

5day

Also a strong tropical wave is 230 mile ESE of the Leeward Islands; moving WNW. It could become a Tropical Depression soon. The future Ernesto is not out of the question as it enters the Carribbean Sea over the next few days with no wind sheer to stop development.

Been a quiet season so far, this is about the time of year things start to pick-up. Hopefully the sheer in the tropics will continue?

Yeah I saw something about this. I hope things don't start to pick up in the tropics.

[SlidellWX]

I've been watching the wave approaching the Carribean...but am not concerned yet. It is very far south around 10 degrees latitude. Many storms do not form that far south...as they begin to feel the effects of S. America.

Will just have to keep watching...but even if something forms...would expect it to stay well south of us due to a strong upper level ridge developing over the area next week. This would tend to steer anything toward Central America.

[NCB]

Thanks for the info, Slidell, I hope you're right and that this depression doesn't end up affecting us. As always, keep us posted if you can.

5 day projected path for "Tropical Depression Five"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...html?5day?large

5 day projected path for "Tropical Storm Debby"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...html?5day?large

[SlidellWX]

I'm still not worried about this system yet. There is a very persistent upper level trough in the western and central Carribean that is producing a ton of shear in that region. This is not conducive to rapid development. I would tend to lean toward the NOGAPS and GFS solutions on this one...and basically kill off the system in the western Carribean and then send into Mexico as a tropical wave.

Of course...if the shear weakens...things could change. However...the blocking ridge should remain in place over our region through next week. Even if the system managed to survive the shear and enter the GOMEX...if would most likely be steered toward north MX or south TX. Just my 2 cents on an evolving situation.

[NCB]

Tropical Depression Five has now become Tropical Storm Ernesto, and is expected to become this season's first hurricane by monday. It's still way down there, but I'm not feeling very comforatable with this one. The 5 day track places it in the middle of the Gulf on wednesday, and has it heading towards the TX/LA border.