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2006 Louisiana Hurricane Season


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Sorry for the delay...been a busy weekend. Well...the ridge is actually breaking down quite a bit today as a strong upper level trough develops in the Plains. Since the ridge is basically disappearing this morning...Ernesto will be headed for the FL Peninsula in response to the digging trough in the Eastern US by midweek. We should actually see a front move through on Tuesday...which is very unusual this time of year.

Right now...Tampa and Key West are in the bullseye for Ernesto on Wednesday and Thursday. However...the track is over Cuba for a while...so the intensity is pretty uncertain. It could be a Cat 2 or Cat 3 in Tampa.

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Thanks for the updates, we appreciate it. I can imagine you were busy with the tropics.

That's some good news for Louisiana! Last night I saw the track change further east to Gulf Shores/Pensacola; then today even further east to Florida. Ernesto has definitely caught our attention; even though the trough digs thru by mid-week and we get the unusual cool front people should still have their guards up ?

Also glad to see Ernesto weaken back-down to Tropical Storm status today on the tip of Hispanola.

SlidellWX, looks like drier air later in the week ? Perfect weather for some LSU/ULL football on Labor Day Weekend.

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No changes in thinking...keeping the track over FL and then up along the East Coast. I honestly don't think the central Gulf Coast has anything to worry about. Hurricane Watches are up for S. FL now with landfall 36 to 48 hours out.

Should definitely be a dry end of the week...with a nice high pressure ridge building over the area. It looks like another front may visit again next Monday.

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Yea, it's still way to early to be very sure about this one. No matter where it goes, it looks like we'll have at least 8 or 9 days to watch this before it even makes landfall. The NHC track and many of the other computer models have shifted a bit further north, so hopefully that trend continues and this one doesn't end up finding its way into the Gulf. I really hate to wish hurricanes on anyone, but we just can't handle one along most of the Gulf Coast.

at200606_model.gif

Historical tracks:

at200606_climo.gif

Also, from looking at pressure maps in the Atlantic, there seems to be a tropical wave following TD 6 off of Cape Verde.

qscat_sept3.png

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All of the long range information I've been looking at...leads me to believe this will turn northward over the western Atlantic and remain out at sea before ever getting close to land. Maybe Bermuda will have to worry about it...but not the US.

That's what seems to happen to most of the storms in this position in the Atlantic, just from looking at a few different historic storm track graphics. I hope that TD 6, or what will eventually be Florence, will take that path as well.

Slidell, the senior meteorologist over at weatherunderground. com posted this in his blog, and I was just curious as to what you thought:

Tropical Depression Six is having trouble making up its mind where its center should be. The center it organized around is getting competition from another center of circulation about 400 miles to the southwest, as seen in the latest QuikSCAT image posted at 8:30pm EDT tonight (Figure 1). The large area of thunderstorms about 400 miles southwest of TD 6, formerly designated "Invest 98L", is still there, and is causing major difficulties for TD 6, which can't make up its mind which center to consolidate around. Until the depression resolves this conflict, you can throw all the model runs out the window--they will not be able to resolve the double circulation centers. TD 6 may well decide to organize around the old Invest 98L center to the southwest, which would pull the forecast tracks further south towards the Lesser Antilles Islands.
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  • 2 weeks later...

? Question for SlidellWX if you are here? Do you know when was the latest a tropical storm or hurricane ever hit Louisiana's coast ?? Lili hit the La. coast a few years ago in early October. The Cat #4 hurricane weakened dramatically to a Cat# 2 at the last minute with cooler water temps. and drier air wrapping into the system.

I was wondering bec. the Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends on the last day of November(30th). But along the Louisiana gulf coast things tend to shut-down by mid-October with water temps dropping below 80 degree threshold. So far so good ! Day by day til we reach around the 15th of October.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Me too.....Yes we were spared/blessed this year; what a difference a year makes. The official end of hurricane season is November 30th; but for Louisiana things shut-down by mid-October. The stronger cold fronts really help drop the water temps in the northern gulf.

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Sorry for the delay. I haven't been on the forum for a couple of weeks. The latest hurricane was Hurricane Juan back in 1985. It made landfall October 29 then looped back out into the Gulf and made another landfall in nearly the same location a couple of days later. It finally dissipated in MS on November 1st. It was a Cat 1 at landfall near Morgan City.

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  • 7 months later...

It nearly that time of year again....2007 Hurricane Season begins June 1st

Hope these guys are wrong again?? It only takes one to be a bad season. Last year they(experts) were way off, thank goodness, it was a calm season.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070522/sc_nm/...ricanes_noaa_dc

NOAA forsees 13 to 17 tropical storms; 7 to 10 developing into Hurricanes; 3 to 5 could be major(110 mph+)

Accuweather said La Ninia could make 6 or 7 hit the U.S.?

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