Triangle overtaking Metro Charlotte in population?

[monsoon]

I have removed the irrelevant discussion and boosterism posts from this topic. Please get back to discussing the question of the topic if you feel you want to join this topic.

[Nostyle]

Is there reason to believe that the Triangle, in any way, is outgrowing Charlotte in terms of raw numbers? Percentages are one thing but raw population is another. From personal observation I am witnessing Charlotte's outskirts sprawl at an almost uncontrollable pace. Is the Triangle's outskirt sprawl really growing that much faster? I think we all agree that Charlotte is densifying at the core more than the Triangle, so sprawl growth is what we're really talking about here. Is sprawl growth in the Triangle really that much greater than Charlotte's sprawl growth?

[Nostyle]

Just looking at numbers beyond population, it would seem that Raleigh has quite a bit of catching up to do in terms of office space as well. I was looking over these reports from Colliers earlier and comparing these two markets. Here are some notable numbers...

CBD:

Charlotte - 19.84 million sqft (5.4% vacancy rate)

Raleigh - 3.65 million sqft (6.5% vacancy rate)

Outlying Office Space:

RTP - 8.78 million sqft (17.3% vacancy rate)

Airport (Charlotte) - 9.08 million sqft (20.9% vacancy rate)

Metro Total:

Charlotte - 60.50 million sqft (11.5% vacancy rate)

Triangle - 39.07 million sqft (14% vacancy rate)

So Charlotte has over 50% more office space (~20 million square feet) than the Triangle, even though the metro population is only 40% larger (~600,000 people).

I'd be curious to see the industrial sqft comparison...

[Nostyle]

Quick industrial sqft comparison...

Warehouse:

Charlotte - 124.70 million sqft (9.7% vacancy rate)

Triangle - 20.47 million sqft (20.86% vacancy rate)

Flex:

Charlotte - 19.09 million sqft (20.9% vacancy rate)

Triangle - 14.46 million sqft (20.14% vacancy rate)

Total:

Charlotte - 143.80 million sqft (10.5% vacancy rate)

Triangle - 34.93 million sqft (20.56% vacancy rate)

I'm stunned by the difference between the Charlotte metro and the Triangle when it comes to industrial square footage. Charlotte has well over 4 times the industrial space of the Triangle and half the vacancy rate. Wow.

[Nostyle]

To clarify, the reason I think these numbers are worth discussion is because they translate into jobs, and population size/growth is strongly correlated to the size/growth of a city's workforce.

[monsoon]

At least in one of your examples you did not seem to include the space in Durham or Chapel Hill. In addition a lot of the employment in the area is due to the educational and state government offices and those are not usually included in most office space calculations. For example, Raleigh has about 25,000 people employed by the state government, which is roughly equivalent to Wachovia and BofA and I would guess that most of them are in government owned buildings.

[monsoon]

Is there reason to believe that the Triangle, in any way, is outgrowing Charlotte in terms of raw numbers?

Yes there is. Wake county has outpaced Mecklenburg in both percentage an raw numbers for quite some time. I have not done a calculation on metro vs metro, but I suspect the triangle is growing faster.

[Nostyle]

At least in one of your examples you did not seem to include the space in Durham or Chapel Hill. In addition a lot of the employment in the area is due to the educational and state government offices and those are not usually included in most office space calculations. For example, Raleigh has about 25,000 people employed by the state government, which is roughly equivalent to Wachovia and BofA and I would guess that most of them are in government owned buildings.

The Triangle's total metropolitan square footage includes Durham and Chapel Hill for both office and industrial.

As for government office space, is that not included in these figures? I was under the impression that this includes government space.

[Nostyle]

Yes there is. Wake county has outpaced Mecklenburg in both percentage an raw numbers for quite some time. I have not done a calculation on metro vs metro, but I suspect the triangle is growing faster.

Reducing the comparison to only the core county isn't a good indicator of how these metros are growing as a whole. We all know that Wake County is significantly larger than Mecklenburg in terms of land area, so it's not comparing apples to oranges. You say you 'suspect' the triangle is growing faster, but again, aside from gut feelings and assumptions, do we have any true data that says this is true?

[peaceloveunderstanding]

Yes there is. Wake county has outpaced Mecklenburg in both percentage an raw numbers for quite some time. I have not done a calculation on metro vs metro, but I suspect the triangle is growing faster.

Metro growth between 2000 and 2005 (Yes, Cary and Durham are included)

Domestic Migration

Charlotte 111,607

Triangle 82,459

International Migration

Charlotte 40,494

Triangle 46,067

Total New Growth outside of Natural Growth

Charlotte 152,101

Triangle 128,526

Unless the people in the Triangle are having many times more babies than the people of Charlotte, Charlotte's population has been growing faster in raw numbers in recent times.

[monsoon]

You asked "is there a reason to believe in any way the triangle is outgrowing Charlotte in terms of raw numbers?" The fact that Wake is growing faster than Meck. is an answer to that. However I will go and look of the numbers for you.

Edit: Moonshield, you left out the death rate.

[monsoon]

Population Estimates 2000 - 2005

Source US Census

Charlotte Mecklenburg MSA

• Anson +244, 25,499

• Cabarrus +19,181, 150,244

• Gaston +5,821, 196,137

• Mecklenburg +101,002, 769,372,

• Union 162, +39,157, 162,929

• York (SC) +25,474, 190,097

• Total Change = +190,879

• Population = 1,494,278

Durham MSA

• Chatham +8,673, 58,002

• Durham +19,268, 242,582

• Orange +2,849, 118,386

• Person +1,594, 37,217

• Total Change = +32,384

• Population = 456,187

Raleigh MSA

• Franklin +7,169, 54,429

• Johnson +24,537, 146,437

• Wake +120,949, 748,815

• Total Change = +152,655

• Population = 949,681

Totals

Charlotte MSA Population - 1,494,278

Triangle MSA Population - 1,405,868

Population Change 2000-2005

Charlotte - 190,879

Triangle - 185,039

Difference = 5,840 in 5 years in Charlotte.

This would say that Charlotte MSA has averaged about 1,200 new residents/year more than the Triangle over the last 5 years. Clearly Wake is the hands down winner in all of these counties listed as a lot of growth in the Charlotte area is occuring in York and Union counties. I believe that one of the things that is happening is that growth is occuring in Union and York at the expense of Mecklenburg. (Especially in York, since SC has been offering tax breaks for companies to relocate on the other side of the line)

[Nostyle]

You asked "is there a reason to believe in any way the triangle is outgrowing Charlotte in terms of raw numbers?" The fact that Wake is growing faster than Meck. is an answer to that. However I will go and look of the numbers for you.

Edit: Moonshield, you left out the death rate.

I think you read in to "in any way" a bit too much and completely missed the overall question I was raising. Only a matter of sentences later I also asked "Is the Triangle's outskirt sprawl really growing that much faster?", and then finished my post by yet again asking "Is sprawl growth in the Triangle really that much greater than Charlotte's sprawl growth?". I'm aiming to compare metro versus metro, not county versus county, or city versus city. We're trying to look at the big picture.

I think moonshield's numbers are most indicative of the real difference between the sprawling Charlotte and Raleigh markets because his numbers appear to be taking into consideration the full combined statistical area, whereas your numbers, monsoon, are only metropolitan statistical area numbers.

That being said, even the MSA numbers show that Charlotte's metro is outgrowing the Triangle metro. You're also right that Union and York counties are 'stealing' a lot of Mecklenburg's growth. This is an in-metro fight that happens in pretty much every metropolitan area, as people and companies are attracted the the more affordable outskirts. However, if you were to look at a map of all this growth in Union and York counties, you would see that it is in such close proximity to Mecklenburg County that you could actually overlay the boundaries of Wake county and it would cover all of Mecklenburg county as well as a significant portion of the new growth happening in adjacent counties. So it's really apples and oranges, because Wake and Mecklenburg Counties aren't the same size.

but in terms of metro growth, not just core county growth, you and moonshield have now both provided numbers that would indicate that Charlotte is still outgrowing Raleigh.

[Nostyle]

At least in one of your examples you did not seem to include the space in Durham or Chapel Hill.

At your request, here are some more numbers...

Office:

Durham - 2.42 million sqft (14.5% vacancy rate)

Remainder of Triangle (excluding Raleigh/Durham/RTP) - 24.21 million sqft (13.9% vacancy rate)

South Park (Charlotte) - 5.22 million sqft (13.4% vacancy rate)

South End (Charlotte) - 3.85 million sqft (10.2% vacancy rate)

I failed to mention that all these numbers throughout my posts include all classes of space.

[peaceloveunderstanding]

Yea, death rate... hehe. Those numbers I listed were net domestic migration and net international migration for the two CSAs. Certainly, some people do die and that's factored in the natural growth rate, not the two other types of growth.

I am very impressed (a bit suprised) with Raleigh-Durham-Cary's growth though. North Carolina is certainly becoming a very impressive state with three impressive metros.

I will say it again. They (Charlotte, Triangle) are growing at about an equal pace but Charlotte still has the edge in population and baring some sort of economic collapse in Charlotte - Charlotte will still be the leading metro.

[Nostyle]

^with a 600,000-person cushion.

[monsoon]

I'm aiming to compare metro versus metro, not county versus county, or city versus city. We're trying to look at the big picture.

And I think I did that above. I avoided getting bogged down in CSAs because in Charlotte that includes Salisbury and Shelby. Both easily an hour or more drive from the center of Charlotte and are only important from an employment and commuting standpoint.

The bottom line is that the Triangle and Charlotte are growing at virtually the same rate from a raw numbers perspective. From a percentage percentage the Triangle is in fact growing faster and if that trend holds then it will surpass Charlotte in a raw numbers perspective as well. We are only talking 1,000 people/year which is in range of the Census sampling error.

The Charlotte metro currently has 89,000 more people than that of what was called the Raleigh-Durham metro. Could the triangle pull ahead of Charlotte in a decade? It's possible. The biggest reason is that about 30% of the jobs in the Charlotte metro are manufacturing based and many are in the textile, furniture and auto parts supply business. Unfortunately a lot of these jobs are headed overseas. It's hard to say if these people would move from the area once their textile mill closes.

[Nostyle]

And I think I did that above. I avoided getting bogged down in CSAs because in Charlotte that includes Salisbury and Shelby. Both easily an hour or more drive from the center of Charlotte and are only important from an employment and commuting standpoint.

The bottom line is that the Triangle and Charlotte are growing at virtually the same rate from a raw numbers perspective. From a percentage percentage the Triangle is in fact growing faster and if that trend holds then it will surpass Charlotte in a raw numbers perspective as well. We are only talking 1,000 people/year which is in range of the Census sampling error.

The Charlotte metro currently has 89,000 more people than that of what was called the Raleigh-Durham metro. Could the triangle pull ahead of Charlotte in a decade? It's possible. The biggest reason is that about 30% of the jobs in the Charlotte metro are manufacturing based and many are in the textile, furniture and auto parts supply business. Unfortunately a lot of these jobs are headed overseas. It's hard to say if these people would move from the area once their textile mill closes.

I guess we're not on the same page in terms of what the boundaries of the metro are. By the next census, Charlotte will be a CSA of over 2 million. Raleigh will be an MSA of over 1.5 million. If Charlotte were to remain an MSA then the numbers would be much tighter, but as you pointed out, Charlotte is still growing faster in terms of raw numbers.

I see it this way. Charlotte is outgrowing Raleigh in two ways. First, it is developing at the core in a way that Raleigh can't compete with. Second, it is sprawling much further out than Raleigh, which is why it's on the verge of being a CSA instead of an MSA. I don't condone sprawl, but in this discussion, it's relevant because I feel the CSA number is more indicative of what is the true Charlotte metropolitan area (and in discussing where Charlotte's metro is headed), whereas you still base your argument on MSA statistics.

[monsoon]

I don't understand the rationale of comparing Charlotte's CSA to the MSA numbers in the Triangle. It's apples and oranges.

Keep in mind the Charlotte CSA is almost 7,000 square miles and contain's vast rural areas. Have you ever been to rural Lancaster, Lincoln, Cleveland and northern Iredell counties? There is noting metropolitan about that at all. I don't think adding the population of Heath Springs, SC says much about the Charlotte metro.

Charlotte is a 1.4M metro, the Triangle is a 1.4M metro. Not much difference.

[Nostyle]

I don't understand the rationale of comparing Charlotte's CSA to the MSA numbers in the Triangle. It's apples and oranges.

Keep in mind the Charlotte CSA is almost 7,000 square miles and contain's vast rural areas. Have you ever been to rural Lancaster, Lincoln, Cleveland and northern Iredell counties? There is noting metropolitan about that at all. I don't think adding the population of Heath Springs, SC says much about the Charlotte metro.

Charlotte is a 1.4M metro, the Triangle is a 1.4M metro. Not much difference.

I disagree. but I'll simplify my point for you. Charlotte has enough population on the outskirts that it will be considered a CSA by the next census. This population does not exist around the Triangle. But instead of looking to the future (which is what I thought this thread was all about), let's look at the current MSAs for you. Yes, when comparing MSA to MSA, Raleigh isn't that much smaller than Charlotte. At the same time, you've given data that still shows that the Charlotte MSA is growing faster.

To me, this is like looking at a 19-year old and a 13-year old and calling them both teenagers. The one is on the verge of adulthood. The other is just starting to get a deep voice. When Charlotte is ready to settle down and have some kids, Raleigh will just be graduating highschool. You can call them both teenagers, but one is definitely more mature than the other.

Just my opinion. I guess only time will tell.

[peaceloveunderstanding]

The Triangle is not a MSA, its the combination of two MSAs. When comparing the Charlotte metro to the Triangle you're comparing a MSA to a CSA.

The entire discussion of what constitutes the Charlotte MSA has been done many a time since I've been here. It may very well change in the next census, or not.

What is the area of the Raleigh-Durham-Cary CSA? Since that's what we talk about when we talk about the Triangle.

[monsoon]

The Triangle is not a MSA, its the combination of two MSAs. When comparing the Charlotte metro to the Triangle your comparing a MSA to a CSA.

Thats not true.

I compared the Charlotte MSA to the combined Raleigh MSA and Durham MSA.

If you were going to compare CSA's then you have add the Dunn micro area to RDU, and you have to add Albemarle, Chester, Lancaster, Lincolnton, Salisbury, Shelby and Statesville to Charlotte. As I just said for Charlotte this is over 6000 sq/miles. CSAs are not defined by urbanized areas, they are defined by commuting patterns, and they tend to be larger in areas that have large rural, economically depressed areas as in the case of Charlotte.

You can of course compare Charlotte's CSA to the RDU CSA, but I really don't see the point of adding almost 3000 sq/miles of mostly rural area to the discussion.

[Damien]

The bottom line is that nobody knows what is going to happen in the future. People can speculate all they want, but nobody knows for sure.

[peaceloveunderstanding]

Yea that sounds right. The very best thing to do is to wait to the next census. As of the current designations of MSAs and estimates, the two metro areas are pretty close - almost equals.

[Nostyle]

You can of course compare Charlotte's CSA to the RDU CSA, but I really don't see the point of adding almost 3000 sq/miles of mostly rural area to the discussion.

That's where I disagree with you. We're talking about predicting the future, and I think we can all agree that both Raleigh and Charlotte will continue to expand outward more than anything else. That being said, the 'almost 3000 sq/miles of mostly rural area' you refer to is right in line to become the next suburban and exurban rings of these two metros. By looking at Charlotte as a CSA, we're simply taking the existing exurban/rural population already in place and adding it to the Charlotte metro. As Charlotte continues to expand outward, these areas will turn from exurban/rural into suburban/exurban, and over a long period of time will become outright suburban. It's not pretty, but it's what's happening, which is why I think it's relevant to include these outlying areas in a discussion about where these metros are headed.

That being said, in order to give us the best apples-to-apples comparison, I think we do need to include an equal amount of land when looking at the Raleigh metropolitan area. Metro.m, you referred to the Dunn micro area as being part of Raleigh's would-be CSA. Fair enough. Add it in. What does that bring the population to? Keep going. Whatever would be a part of Raleigh's long-term CSA, add it in. Then let's compare CSA to CSA.

Because that's where these metros are headed. Their MSAs are in the present/past. It's like a quarterback throwing to a receiver. You gotta throw the ball to where he's going, not where he's been.