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A2

Insight that must not be ignored!

45 posts in this topic

Windows Media

http://netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2006-0603-3.asx

Real Player

http://netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2006-0603-3.ram

Mp3

http://netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2006-0603-3.mp3

WinAmp

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2006-0603-3.m3u

Please listen to it all. It is the BEST and MOST INSIGHTFUL information you will find on the web, or news media outlets, PERIOD ! The people on this broadcast have no incentive to lie and most are PHD's and understand the fundementals shifts of what is going on with the deficits, Gold, Housing, The Fed, the Dollar. It covers it all.

Enjoy!

A2

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^^^You can listen to it while you surf^^^ It is quite lengthy, so post away as those speakers are pumping out truth!

A2

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The crash of 1987 will look feel like a kid ride at Carrowinds compared to the drop in the Dow coming within the next few months. EXPECT a sucker rally up to the election time. It might even rally to a high, but even if that happens the day of reckoning is coming and all things point to a serious problem.

For what it is worth the DOW is considered undervalued by most all analysts, and commodities are viewed to be in a bubble. YOU BE THE JUDGE!

DOW

Chart from late 1800's-2000 (BTW, the DOW topped out last month at right below its high from 2000. )

http://www.lowrisk.com/image/djia100year-linear.gif

http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/historic...s2/DJIA1900.gif

It is copyrighted so I am posting the link instead.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=my

Now your dollar and its purchasing power. Talk abot inflation:

usapower.jpg

And the experts who say Commodities (ie Gold Silver and Gold) are in a bubble. :rofl:

Here is a bubble the US deficit

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BOPBCA_Max.png

COME ON !!!!

A2

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The scariest chart of all!

THE NATIONAL DEBT!!!

history.gif

Here is wher the TRUE price of GOLD would need to be to secure our liabilites. NOTE: most think that this precious metal is WAY WAY WAY Overvalued @ 600 bucks. The reason that they mislead you and supress this info is becasue of the dire situation the US is in with its lenders.

Chart%2010%20Gold%20to%20secure%20US%20debt.jpg

A2

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The US Treasury and the FED have agreed to stop using this (Money Supply M3)measurement since it would scare the living hell out of anyone who understands it. It is the inflated money supply that the printing presses in Washington are responsible for. Still believe that green piece of paper in your pocket is worth something! Where is the backing??? Guess what ? THERE IS NONE!

M3 from JUST 1990

m3sl.gif

Hey A2... try National Debt as a percentage of GDP

Your wish is my command

Figure%202.jpg

NASTY STILL !

Now for us the consumer. This will be what exaxerbates the whole issue and brings down the house of cards

consumerdebt.gif

Remember we are RASING INTEREST RATES ALL ALONG!

A2

The consumer is tapping out.

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Ok, now I am going to be diabolical and ask everyone to use simple math in his/her mind to see where we are heading.

TOTAL Credit Card Debt + look at National Savings rate :( WE ARE IN TROUBLE!!!

16022005_ll_3.gif

Savings Rate: (this goes a little past 2000 and paints a picture more optomistic. We are currently at a negative savings rate)

figure5.gif

Oh and just so I don't have anyone wanting to throw pesky GDP crap at me. Here ya go.

hhdebtoGDP2004.gif

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That is a good point about the election. Maybe I will roll the dice with the stock market until about mid-October.

Just for the record I have $0 debt. No credit card balance, no revolving loans, no car payment, no mortgate. (place is paid for)

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Bush is taking a lot of pride in his Robust economy. Well most of those charts are direct from the Governement. He needs to take a little lesson in arithmatic. Ever since he came into office his wonderful polcies have really done nothing but create and illusion of an economy doing great. But is was all that an Illusion.

All along Consumers are maxed out of Credit cards, and theNational Debt has expolded. We have been struck by terrorsits, and have landed ourselved in quiite a poickle in Iraq. Oil has gone up over 200% since he has been in office, and the FED has manged to print more monopoly cash than ever before. The Illusion is already being seen across the globe. China, Russia and India are gobbling up more Gold to back themselves for what looks to be a Financial Fallout of grave proportions. Stay tuned it will get a lot more intereesting as the markets fool people that all is well within the next couple of months.

I VOTED FOR BUSH ! So I can say with a great degree of confidence that this is NOT a political attack, merely and observation that all Hell is about to break loose.

If you want to put your faith in the Gov't with their fuzzy math, and the Greenback with its worth eroding then be my guest.

I for one just sit back ammused at the stupid analyst on TV who tout the economy and were the same fools who led everyone into the abyss back in 2000.

A2

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That is a good point about the election. Maybe I will roll the dice with the stock market until about mid-October.

Just for the record I have $0 debt. No credit card balance, no revolving loans, no car payment, no mortgate. (place is paid for)

You actually might make a few bucks off the Republicans metro , since they will no doubt do all they can to keep this thing propped up until the election, but be careful since with markets anything cold happen. I might jump in just to jump right back out, and stay out for the next few years. Gold, Cash and I-bonds are nice too. And for all of those who want to stay ahead of the game, Get out of debt now.

ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE SHORT TERM, but LONG TERM IS LOOKING BLEAK!

A2

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anything positive in the least?

Yes Charlotte will continue to grow. Housing is much more stable here. There are pockets that will have to adapt to the recession coming. Those will be unfortunately in the high end Real Estate condo's. I still see most of the projects that have been announced as all but done. But any others that are announce I would be suspect.

One thing that is of interest is the potnetial for Rentals. I could easily see developers seeking out apartment towers as an option since ownership might fade in the next few years.

Even in the 70's Atlanta grew. And one great example is Japan, even after the implosion of the Nikkei in 1989 they continued to build.

A2

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That is a good point about the election. Maybe I will roll the dice with the stock market until about mid-October.

Just for the record I have $0 debt. No credit card balance, no revolving loans, no car payment, no mortgate. (place is paid for)

You are a wise man metro ! I am almost totally out of credit card debt, I own my own car, and I sold out of my house one year ago. I am going to wait on the sidelines a bit longer before I commit to a house since I really want to wait till prices stabalize (or even drop) then buy the House outright.

This is the society we used to have.

Our parents and grandparent would turn over in their graves (if already deceased) if they knew the extent of the foolishness going on with Americann's today. My Grandmother was a BIG believer in land and as such, amassed large quanties. She is worth a mint on paper, but still lives in a two bedroom home that she and my grandfather built that housed 8 children!

Our wants in the society have taken precedent over our needs and as such we all could suffer.

Be an Owner of all things, own No man anyhting, and life is much more rewarding. This allure to keep up with the Jones's is going to fade and those cought in the trap to have the next hottest thing will be in serious trouble in the next few years.

A2

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The chartist at work... A2, the girl out of town today???

The percentage of GDP is important. Obviously, you see debt in percentage terms is not increasing at the rate in dollar terms. Factor in (or out) the war spending, and it is not bad at all in a comparative manner. Keep in mind, if you have money in a savings account, you are contributing to the National Debt. It is a whole different ballgame than consumer debt. I do wish the line were trending down though.

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Charlotte has been fortunate not to have been plagued with huge real estate speculation like Florida, Arizona, some North East cities, and Nevada. A lot of foreign money has poured in those areas which has driven prices to nose bleed heights. This foreign cash is purely speculative and is already being pulled out causing lots of popping noises. Charlotte has seen some external speculative money, but it isn't as bad here and as A2 has said its limited to the high dollar places. (once you get above $250 sq ft) The other advantage that Charlotte has is the population continues to rise in real terms.

Be an Owner of all things, own No man anyhting, and life is much more rewarding. This allure to keep up with the Jones's is going to fade and those cought in the trap to have the next hottest thing will be in serious trouble in the next few years.

Indeed. Not having any debt is great. I found out a couple of weeks ago they are sending my job to India, but I really don't care as I didn't really like it anyway. :lol: Not having to worry about paying off notes has given me a don't care attitude about the whole thing. Oddly enough, I haven't been told that I will be laid off but if it happens I will look for something else at my own leisure.

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On Coast to Coast AM, thet have had programs on this for the last year. If people don't know, the national debit is rasing red flags all over the world in the money markets.

Gold and silver are good investments.

I going in to tax free insure bond market. There is a lot less risk than the stock market as of now.

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I'm up to my neck in student loans; no way that's going to be eliminated any time soon, plus I'm still racking up as I am in grad school (and have more schooling to go). I guess I'm screwed.

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You all know where issues come from, why people sell in the stock market all at the same time? Speculation leads to panic which in turn leads to unrest which leads to a recession. Speculation is the source of all that is evil. That's all I have to say about that.

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Oh it gets better than that. You can short stock which means you are betting that it will go down. You can make a lot of money that way. This is probably a good tactic for after the election. Short a bunch of stock and clean up from everyone else losing their shirts.

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Oh it gets better than that. You can short stock which means you are betting that it will go down. You can make a lot of money that way. This is probably a good tactic for after the election. Short a bunch of stock and clean up from everyone else losing their shirts.

Better yet buy the March 07 Puts on the DOW. Specifiacally the 100, and 110 strike price. The ticker is DIAOV.X for the 100 strike price. I have been making recomendations on this little puppy and it is already up over 150% in less than two weeks!

I think there is potential for possibly a 1000-2000% gain. (that is not a typo)

So 1000 bucks could easily become $10000-$20000 if we get a correction of the magnitude that I think will befall us.

I made a lot of money in the markets in 2000. More than I ever did in the Bull. Fear is much more powerful than greed and as such stocks tend to move down fast a violently. It is like a stampede, everone is looking for an exit, it triggers stop loss orders by the thousands.

For what it is worth I am putting my money where my mouth is, I have allocated 15% of my hedge into options (specifically Puts)

This is not anti-American, as many would suggest, but rather adds liquidity to our markets.

I am plugging all of my other assets into Hard assets, (ie Silver and Gold).

Cash is earning some nice gains too. I can get almost 5% in a stable Money market account, with no risk and total liquidity.

I-Bonds are also on the menu since they are Government Backed obligations that pay rates based on the stated rate of inflation. If rates go high, so is the payment on that bond to you :) .

Remember, markets move in cycles. The Bull of late (1982-2000) has run out of steam, and the new bull is gaining strength in commodities.

For all wanting to know how to get out of debt, might I suggest one simple thing:

Change your lifestyle.

It is really not that hard. Lately I have been brown bagging my lunch, I have been making coffee at home instead of spending 5 bucks on a latte at Starbucks, I have stopped dining out.

On the weekends I ride my bike, rent movies, and cook at home. For the most part my food is a heck of a lot better than what I can even get in the nicest of restraunts.

One biggie that really helped me was totally paying off my car. When you buy a car think of paying cash, or if you do not have cash buy a used car with a fixed loan. AVOID LEASING AT ALL COSTS!

Once you start to change your lifestyle you start to notice that you can afford to put a lot more cash on debt (ie Credit Cards, Student Loans, and even Real Estate)

My younger sister is 26 years old and is making her last payment on her home in just a few short months !!!

The reason she was able to do this is becasue instead of taking out a 30 yr Mortgage she took out a 15 yr Mortgage on a relatively inexpensive home (it was NOT PRETENTIOUS). She paid rooughly 65K for it, She doubled up on her payments since the mortgage was manageable for her budget, and that little fixer upper is now worth close to 100,000 in on a half acre of land outside of Birmingham!

That is TOTAL EQUITY folks for my sister who is 26 and makes under $40,000 annually!

The point I am trying to make is that living a lifestyle within your means can be rewarding, and those that find it worth while to impress will land themselves in a world of hurt.

Once you have changed your spending patterns you must take advantage of employee 401K plans. That is FREE MONEY!

Then make it a point to open up a svings account. But instead of you physically putting money up in that account, have it directly depositied into your account from your paycheck! This is extremely important since if it is out of sight it will be out of mind.

Eventually you will look back in five to ten years and pat yourself on the back for getting out of debt and possibly being able to have total equity in your home, or possibly sitting on quite a nest egg in savings in & retirement accounts.

To get you really excited just know that my total expenditures on entertainment (ie Movies,Going out a few times a week, and Bar hopping) was running me about 500-600 bucks Easy per month!

Now if I would just cut back on half of that activity which I explained above into a savings account and put 300 dollars into a typical svaings account or Gov't back bond every month (earning around 5%) for 35 years, I would be worth nearly $600,000 after taxes !

That is just for stopping with my desire to eat out at lunch and buy a starbucks coffe every day.

Lunch X Coffee= 12 bucks per dayX 22 business days per year. That's almost 250 extra dollars on just lunch and coffee.

Throw in a few bar visits and nights out and that could easily be over 600-800 dollars a month.

Again I am not talking about forgoing all social life, but rather scaling back and being reasonable. That is all.

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The next recession is the one that should have happened in 2001. We delayed the reckoning with cheap credit, but all we really did was borrow from the future.

Even ignoring all economic data, it's quite reasonable to think we'll face a recession next year. Business cycles will continue, and we've had an expansion (cough, cough) since 2001. The bull is about to get tired.

I think we'll be seeing some fantastic deals on used "stuff" soon. All the big toys we bought with HELOCs over the last 5 years... RV's, big screen TV's, Jetskis, etc. At least the people who bought toys can get some of it back... Those that blew their low interest HELOCs on vacations won't be able to hock their memories.

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I guess what's really scary is that all of the above assumes no changes in political stability on a global scale. If something goes awry in the Middle East, the picture becomes even more dark.

On another front, war spending isn't going away any time soon, so when do our fearless leaders plan to start having us pay for their military maneouvers? Just like credit card debt, you don't pay the minimum payment, they start calling and tacking on late charges. Wouldn't you love to be the one in the call center who has to telephone Congress and the White House.

Well A2, you've depressed the hell out of me. I'm going to crawl under a rock. Someone come get me when its safe.

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I did a Google news search on home sales and building and found some interesting tidbits. For example, the story below from a Florida newspaper reports home builders have started laying off workers in hot markets like Phoenix, south Florida, California and Nevada. Banks are downgrading homebuilders' stocks. The hint of rising interet rates is very concerning to investors and they are pushing down home builders' stocks.

I don't know anything about A2's comments, except that when I finally notice it, it's too late. I'm too darn optimistic.

A2 - Try switching over from Coast to Coast to 90.7 and the BBC World News. It's a different perspective.

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/business/article...4763635,00.html

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