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Inconvenient Truth


intcvlcphlga

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That's an interesting perspective by Crichton. I hadn't thought of it that way.

One thing in common that both Mars and Earth share is the same Sun. Could there be changes happening to the Sun that are so imperceptible as to go unmeasured by Man, but affecting both atmospheres?

crichton is correct in everything he said. think of it this way... if everyone followed the consensus, what is the point of science? if everyone believed the earth was flat, would anyone have ever decided figure it out otherwise? if everyone believed the universe was centered around earth, would anyone have looked deeper into that? if everyone believed that we were the only living things out there, woudl anyone have explored space? sciences answers those questions that go against the general consensus.

and to answer your question, yes, it is very likely that this might be the case. it is still known that humans are affecting earth, it is simply not known how much we are affecting earth and how much of this is natural change...

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Who are Michael Crichton and James Hansen, first of all. :dontknow::lol:

Michael Crichton wrote Jurassic Park. He has medical training from Harvard and he's written multiple books, screenplays, tv shows, etc. He's also been invited to the White House to brief W on how he thinks human-caused global warming is a hoax.

James Hansen is a climate science professor at Columbia University. He also is the director of the Goddard Space Institute of NASA and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. He believes that we are in the midst of global warming and that it is due in large part to the actions of humans.

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We seem to have a lot of armchair climatologists in this thread that say things like "I believe that" and "I heard" and "I read"

It's obvious that the planet is warming. There's no hoax in this. There are a number of websites that you can go to to check the temperature records for the past 100 years.

The warming has increased dramatically in the last 30 years at the same time that emissions of CO2 have increased dramatically.

It is most likely true that our planet is warming at an unprecidented rate due to several factors, including, but not limited to:

Fluctuations in solar activity. Solar activity has been stronger in the last 70 years than at any time in the last 1000 years according to a recent study. But even the strength of our sun right now can not explain all of the warming, and this has been proven by science.

Fluctuations in natural oscillation cycles like the North Atlantic or Artic Oscillations (which fluctuate regularly from winter to winter) and decadal oscillations like the Pacific Decadal oscillation, which effects Pacific ocean temperatures creating stronger or weaker El-Nino/La-Nina cycles. This is largely seen as the culprit for a brief stoppage in warming from 1945-1975.

Other things also contribute to warming in a large scale, but short term effect. When all air traffic stopped in the U.S after the 9/11 terror attacks, the average U.S temperature fell by a few 10ths of one degree.

Other things also affect. A warming trend that has melted more ice and snow earlier allows the sun to penetrate the darker surface (decreasing albedo).. this in turn keeps the area even warmer and melts more ice, making it even warmer in a positive feedback cycle.

Also, warming up peat bogs allows many peat bogs to release larger amounts of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, speeding up warming. Dangerous spikes in earths temperature have been linked to these events in the past when large swaths of swampland suddenly released unprecidented amounts of methane into the atmosphere (a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2).

You need to look at all facets of the debate. No, it's not just Co2.. and no, it's not just the sun.. and YES, IT IS HAPPENING. THERE'S NO DENYING IT.

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We seem to have a lot of armchair climatologists in this thread that say things like "I believe that" and "I heard" and "I read"

It's obvious that the planet is warming. There's no hoax in this. There are a number of websites that you can go to to check the temperature records for the past 100 years.

The warming has increased dramatically in the last 30 years at the same time that emissions of CO2 have increased dramatically.

It is most likely true that our planet is warming at an unprecidented rate due to several factors, including, but not limited to:

Fluctuations in solar activity. Solar activity has been stronger in the last 70 years than at any time in the last 1000 years according to a recent study. But even the strength of our sun right now can not explain all of the warming, and this has been proven by science.

Fluctuations in natural oscillation cycles like the North Atlantic or Artic Oscillations (which fluctuate regularly from winter to winter) and decadal oscillations like the Pacific Decadal oscillation, which effects Pacific ocean temperatures creating stronger or weaker El-Nino/La-Nina cycles. This is largely seen as the culprit for a brief stoppage in warming from 1945-1975.

Other things also contribute to warming in a large scale, but short term effect. When all air traffic stopped in the U.S after the 9/11 terror attacks, the average U.S temperature fell by a few 10ths of one degree.

Other things also affect. A warming trend that has melted more ice and snow earlier allows the sun to penetrate the darker surface (decreasing albedo).. this in turn keeps the area even warmer and melts more ice, making it even warmer in a positive feedback cycle.

Also, warming up peat bogs allows many peat bogs to release larger amounts of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, speeding up warming. Dangerous spikes in earths temperature have been linked to these events in the past when large swaths of swampland suddenly released unprecidented amounts of methane into the atmosphere (a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2).

You need to look at all facets of the debate. No, it's not just Co2.. and no, it's not just the sun.. and YES, IT IS HAPPENING. THERE'S NO DENYING IT.

I totally agree with you and thanks intcvlcphlga for telling me who those guys were.

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We seem to have a lot of armchair climatologists in this thread that say things like "I believe that" and "I heard" and "I read"

It's obvious that the planet is warming. There's no hoax in this. There are a number of websites that you can go to to check the temperature records for the past 100 years.

The warming has increased dramatically in the last 30 years at the same time that emissions of CO2 have increased dramatically.

It is most likely true that our planet is warming at an unprecidented rate due to several factors, including, but not limited to:

Fluctuations in solar activity. Solar activity has been stronger in the last 70 years than at any time in the last 1000 years according to a recent study. But even the strength of our sun right now can not explain all of the warming, and this has been proven by science.

Fluctuations in natural oscillation cycles like the North Atlantic or Artic Oscillations (which fluctuate regularly from winter to winter) and decadal oscillations like the Pacific Decadal oscillation, which effects Pacific ocean temperatures creating stronger or weaker El-Nino/La-Nina cycles. This is largely seen as the culprit for a brief stoppage in warming from 1945-1975.

Other things also contribute to warming in a large scale, but short term effect. When all air traffic stopped in the U.S after the 9/11 terror attacks, the average U.S temperature fell by a few 10ths of one degree.

Other things also affect. A warming trend that has melted more ice and snow earlier allows the sun to penetrate the darker surface (decreasing albedo).. this in turn keeps the area even warmer and melts more ice, making it even warmer in a positive feedback cycle.

Also, warming up peat bogs allows many peat bogs to release larger amounts of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, speeding up warming. Dangerous spikes in earths temperature have been linked to these events in the past when large swaths of swampland suddenly released unprecidented amounts of methane into the atmosphere (a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2).

You need to look at all facets of the debate. No, it's not just Co2.. and no, it's not just the sun.. and YES, IT IS HAPPENING. THERE'S NO DENYING IT.

Even though it may be happening, those first three things are something we can't do anything about. Since when did humans become so arrogant as to believe we can counterract the power of the Sun and ocean currents? We can't even stop a simple levee from breaking. I say, if the Earth has a cycle every million years or so of extinguishing all (or most of) its life forms and then starting over again, so be it. We should be concentrating on eliminating pollutants and emissions that affect our (and our neighbors') quality of life. The things we can control. I'm not going to be laying on my death bed saying "Well, I helped add .000000465 seconds to the Earth's life" :lol:

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I don't think anyone here has said the planet isn't warming. As an expert armchair climatologist, I can't help but wonder how much the USA's average temperatures can fluctuate in a single day so I have a frame of reference. Sept. 11th happened when the days were already getting shorter, so that also contributed to the cooling period.

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I don't think anyone here has said the planet isn't warming. As an expert armchair climatologist, I can't help but wonder how much the USA's average temperatures can fluctuate in a single day so I have a frame of reference. Sept. 11th happened when the days were already getting shorter, so that also contributed to the cooling period.

GRDadof3 is referencing a real study done by a real scientist (a professor at the University of Minnesota - I believe - who may or may not sit in an armchair on his time off), who made the observation about temperature drops throughout the continental US when all airplane traffic was halted. This was the first time any such observation could be made as traffic had never been stopped like that and when he compared it to other years, he noted that the lack of jet trails had a short term affect on surface temperature.

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GRDadof3 is referencing a real study done by a real scientist (a professor at the University of Minnesota - I believe - who may or may not sit in an armchair on his time off), who made the observation about temperature drops throughout the continental US when all airplane traffic was halted. This was the first time any such observation could be made as traffic had never been stopped like that and when he compared it to other years, he noted that the lack of jet trails had a short term affect on surface temperature.

http://www.psu.edu/ur/2002/jetcontrails.html

this actually says that it looks like the temperature went up after 9/11 in the days without jet contrails. Apparantly, they did a good enough job blocking out the sun to reduce global warming.

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It says nothing about temperatures going up. It says that contrails reduced the fluctuation in temperatures. Days got warmer and nights got colder. This usually leads to a cooler average temperature.

An extreme example is here at home in the winter. A clear night in a cold high pressure airmass can see temperatures plummet from 20*F to -40*F.. and back up to 20*F again the next day.. whereas a cloudy 15*F might see nighttime temps around 5-10*F.. a full 40*F warmer than the clearer night.

It's rare that less clouds leads to a higher average because clouds usually bring more moisture and moisture retains more heat... especially in September when there's pretty much 12 hours of night to cool things off.

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And no, you are right, there's nothing we can do about changes to the sun. But all of the other things besides greenhouse gases are not causes but rather effects that affect our climate.

The oscillation cycles are driven into positive or negative phases largely because of heat in our atmosphere. In the last 30 years, these cycles have become more positive compared to before when they were negative.

The Arctic Oscillation has the largest affect on winters in the U.S. During its negative (normal phase), high pressure dominates over the high arctic keeping a cold current spinning around the north pole. This allows ice to form further south. It also keeps pressure at hte mid-latitudes lower allowing for more storms to pass further south and it allows cold airmasses to dive into the U.S

During hte positive phase, low pressure hangs out at the north pole, pulling warmer Atlantic water into the Arctic ocean, melting the ice faster. This also keeps the storm track further north and faster, sending storms and cold air pummelling straight across Canada into Greenland.. thus the cooling of Greenland from 1950-2000 while the rest of the world warmed. (This is also why portions of the NE cooled a bit). This phase allows Pacific westerly airmasses to invade the U.S keeping us drier than average and much warmer than normal.. think winters 1999/2000, 2001/2002 as good examples.

El-Nino/La-Nina are also effects and not causes. Since 1975, there have been more El-Ninos which tend to spell higher global temperatures and less La-Ninas, which typically mean cooler temps.

And as much as I'd like to say that the sun is responsible for all the warming.. it's not.. because while the sun has been stronger in the 20th century than many centuries before.. it hasn't been gaining intensity.. it's been intense, but equally so since about 1920 for hte most part. So this can't explain the unprecidented warming since 1970. This warming can really ONLY be attributed to greenhouse gases, and this is when most of the warming occured.

Of course natural climate change can also be very devastating.. just look at the 1930s. But the 1990s were no walk in the park.. and it just seems to be getting worse.

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