Nashville-Tokyo Air Service

[northernbizzkit1]

Over 8.6 million passengers served in FYR 2004 at the airport. With the recent addition of Jetblue, two destinations for Southwest, and an added NYC flight for Delta.....the passenger traffic is only going to get bigger. Southwest currently operates a "mini hub" out of Nashville with it being their 11th biggest airport operation in 2005. I think getting people here isn't the issue. The issue is finding butts to put in the seats of a 747, Airbus 330, or a 777. We are talking about 200-400 persons per flight on these birds. Do I think it will happen? Yes. Why? Cause Nashville is already underserved as an international destination. At some point the "dam" will break and it will happen...you can take that to the bank. LOL!!! Atlanta is a hard sell for people on a budget and on time restraints. Nashville is in the position to take on added business. It's just finding the right airline that wants to make that commitment to this market. Southwest is making it every month with new flights. NWA pressence in Memphis is minimal when compared to MSP. That hub in Memphis is a small (circa AA in Nashville mid 1990's) hub to begin with. Talks of closing it have risen and fell for the past few years.

Yay, but you have to look at the difference between domestic and international carriers...no offense, but the people flying through BNA are most likely penny-pinching via Southwest. Southwest can't get you to Tokyo. The only thing that can is going to be an overpriced legacy. Unless you see more of a passenger presence at BNA going via the legacy carriers, there's going to be a tough sell to get a Tokyo flight simply because the person who plunks down $150 on a BNA-LAX run on Southwest isn't going to be so quick on $1500 on BNA-NRT. The O/D is going to be an extremely large hurdle to go across when you figure that you would have to have nearly every Nissan employee going on that flight to make it profitable, and the airlines aren't just throwing out international flights anymore due to the gas crisis.

[northernbizzkit1]

Of course, I know next to nothing about the airline industry, but I do know that as economies in Asia grow, there will be greater air traffic to and from... and not just to the big 10 cities in America. So just as NWA goes to Amsterdam from Memphis (hub), and American goes to London from RDU (not a hub), this is possible with the right schedule and feeder lines. Also, Portland, OR serves as a gateway to several Int'l destinations, and I think Kansas CIty does too. Just because an airport is not a hub, doesn't mean it can't receive feeder flights. Southwest has proved that in several markets.

The difference is Memphis is starting to grow again as a NW hub...and that's just it...it's a hub airport, thus it gets the international flight. RDU is a subsidied flight by numerous drug companies in the area, so that's why the RDU-LGW flight remains intact after AA has basically left RDU in the same place as BNA. Portland has the geographical advantage, so it is a gateway. I don't think Kansas City is; however, it does have a flight to Portland and one to Cancun. The point is, the only way you can get a hefty international flight like this would be to have the hub status or simply get all 40,000 of those employees to get the Japanese owners to band together and subsidize a Nashville-Tokyo flight.

[memphian]

AA is the premiere choice if the carrier is domestic and if not then JAL would for sure be a welcomed addition to BNA. Nashville Intl. If neither of those pan out then maybe Aero Mexicana or Air Canada will step up - LOL.

[frankliner]

Just wanted to add in that there is a possible demand for Japanese coming to SOME city in TN (either straight from Nashville or a one-stop in Memphis) as many Japanese love country music and also are infatuated with THE KING. I might add that the Japanese Prime Minister is one of those who love Elvis and is planning to have President Bush personally escort him to Memphis at the end of June to see Graceland. You should look it up, Koizumi has some pretty funny habits (i.e. he released an Elvis CD in Japan...). I am sure he would love a non-stop option, lol

[cheeriokid61]

That's funny. Wouldn't that be great if Japan's Prime Minister himself asked for a flight from Tokyo to Nashville, so he could listen to some live music? That would be an easy way to get the flight.

[Lukin]

That's funny. Wouldn't that be great if Japan's Prime Minister himself asked for a flight from Tokyo to Nashville, so he could listen to some live music? That would be an easy way to get the flight.

Well I'm gonna guess that Japan has it's own version of air force one...so I'm doubting he's going to be taking any commercial one stops to Nashville...but the idea of the japanese prime minister walking around graceland (or even nashville) is kinda funny

[monsoon]

Well I'm gonna guess that Japan has it's own version of air force one...so I'm doubting he's going to be taking any commercial one stops to Nashville...but the idea of the japanese prime minister walking around graceland (or even nashville) is kinda funny

Sounds like the movey "Mystery Train".

[monsoon]

One purpose of the 777 is to allow smaller cities direct international airservice. That's what Boeing is betting on. Airbus with its A380 is betting on the hub system. So I would look to see if the airlines that serve Nashville order the 777. I know that NWA has placed some orders.

The only 777 with the range to make this trip is the 777ER which is a $200M plane. This plane also holds 300-350 people. A smaller city that isn't a hub just isn't going to generate the the traffic needed to make this plane an economic reality.

The 787-8 is a smaller capacity plane that can make it to Tokyo without refueling which might work for Nashville, but I find it hard to believe there is enough O/D traffic in Nashville to fill a 210 person plane to Tokyo, 2 times/day. (Because it takes longer than 12 hours to get to Tokyo, a route has to have two jets.) It is my guess that if the airlines open more gateways to the far east using the 787-8 it will be limited to airports where they have a hub so they can maximize the number of potential passengers.

[cheeriokid61]

Could you explain the sentence where you said that there would need to be two planes because the flight is more than 12 hours. I've never heard that, and I don't understand why there should be more planes than there is demand for.

[atlrvr]

There would need to be two planes because on a 13 hour flight, you can't fly 13 hours, refeul, maintenance check and then fly 13 hour back in a 24 hour day.

This will only happen is Nissan and/or Nashville/Davidson is willing to subsidize the flight. It certainly could happen, but you have to wonder how much that eats into their cost savings of moving to TN from LA in the first place.

[cheeriokid61]

Why do they have to fly back in a 24 hour day? Who ever said that there has to be daily flights to Tokyo? That's what I'm trying to get at. Can we not just have twice a week flights?

[northernbizzkit1]

Why do they have to fly back in a 24 hour day? Who ever said that there has to be daily flights to Tokyo? That's what I'm trying to get at. Can we not just have twice a week flights?

With the equipment required for this flight, it's simply to expensive to do twice a week run from a city with poor O/D for the flight and more so b/c it lacks the hub.

[cheeriokid61]

Okay. Well there goes my brilliant idea.

[northernbizzkit1]

Okay. Well there goes my brilliant idea.

It's a shame b/c MEM-AMS began as a thrice-weekly flight and then when NW saw the popularity of the flight, it moved to daily and is now a contender for twice-daily service; however, it is garbage that the airlines aren't ballsy enough to do it in non-hub markets...well, I guess Boston is a non-hub market, but still...

[satalac]

i say we build a monorail!!!

[sleepy]

The only 777 with the range to make this trip is the 777ER which is a $200M plane. This plane also holds 300-350 people. A smaller city that isn't a hub just isn't going to generate the the traffic needed to make this plane an economic reality.

The 787-8 is a smaller capacity plane that can make it to Tokyo without refueling which might work for Nashville, but I find it hard to believe there is enough O/D traffic in Nashville to fill a 210 person plane to Tokyo, 2 times/day. (Because it takes longer than 12 hours to get to Tokyo, a route has to have two jets.) It is my guess that if the airlines open more gateways to the far east using the 787-8 it will be limited to airports where they have a hub so they can maximize the number of potential passengers.

When I said the 777 in this thread, I meant to say the 787--the Boeing Dreamliner.

[monsoon]

It's a shame b/c MEM-AMS began as a thrice-weekly flight and then when NW saw the popularity of the flight, it moved to daily and is now a contender for twice-daily service; however, it is garbage that the airlines aren't ballsy enough to do it in non-hub markets...well, I guess Boston is a non-hub market, but still...

As I said earlier, a flight to Europe as compared to Asia from Nashville is apples and oranges. There are plenty of planes that can make the Mem-Ams trip. Amsterdam is a 8-9 hour flight. Nashville to Tokyo is a 16-17 hour flight and is at the upper range of a few very expensive jet planes. There are no corporate jets that can make this run without refueling a number of times.

In addition to the expensive planes, it takes a highly trained crew to make this trip as it is a complex trip and the duration means that you have to have several crews on hand to maintain the route. It doesn't help that Narita is an extremely busy airport that is inadequate for the amount of traffic that it gets. And it is a very competitive market as I mentioned earlier, trips to Asia are priced nationally and not locally like domestic flights.

Just because you create a Nashville to Tokyo route, doesn't mean someone from Nashville will actually take it. They may very well choose to fly through Atlanta, Houston, DFW, etc, because the flight is cheaper and/or they have FF miles on one of those airlines. When you are talking about tickets that can cost $1000s, most tourists will fly this route based on price and not departure city. Having a connecting flight does not add that much time to a trip that takes 16-18 hours and crosses 13 time zones. Keep in mind what this means. If you depart 9am Monday on a direct flight to Japan, it won't arrive until 2-3 pm on Tuesday afternoon in Japan. If I board a plane at 8am and fly to ORD and get on the Japan plane it will arrive at close to the same time as the direct flight. And in any case it doesn't make that much difference because you are totally screwed up and exhausted when you arrive anyway and don't tend to notice. The only advantage I could see to arriving in a smaller airport like Nashville, is the hell of getting through customs and immigration will be a lot easier.

As mentioned above, I just don't see this happening in Nashville, especially where there are several hubs within an hour's flight time of Nashville.

[cheeriokid61]

Well, you have successfully ruined my hopes of getting a flight to Tokyo.

But you have made some points about the flights to Europe being much easier. Do you think it would be possible to get flights to Europe? It could happen to France, because I know Nissan has that partnership with Renault over there.

[monsoon]

I was thinking that people working for Nissan would want to go to France since Renault basically runs Nissan now. Flights to Europe are much easier from a economical or technical standpoint, but the problem I believe politics between the EU and the USA limit the number of gates that each airline is given to fly to Europe.

[cheeriokid61]

politics...

[frankliner]

I honestly think that NW has more of a chance of going with memphis for a Tokyo flight. Would still be pretty easy for the Nissan folks to do that...

[franktown]

I was thinking that people working for Nissan would want to go to France since Renault basically runs Nissan now. Flights to Europe are much easier from a economical or technical standpoint, but the problem I believe politics between the EU and the USA limit the number of gates that each airline is given to fly to Europe.

The only person who would really commute to Renault in Paris would be CEO Carlos Ghosn (he spends 50% of his time in Paris running Renault, 40% in Japan running Nissan, and 10% in the US running its opperations), but he has a private jet. Nissan has its own HQ in Yokohama and Renault its own, there isn't a large amount of going between.

[nashscan]

Has anyone addressed the failed Nashville to London flight? If I remember correctly, BNA built an entire international wing to the airport, but months after service began in a 767, it stopped because not enough passengers were flying first class.

[Richard Lawson]

Indeed. This is why you won't see a direct to Japan flight to anywhere but a major city (NYC, San Francisco, Los Angeles) or a major airline hub. Going to Japan is much different than going to Europe. The flights are twice as long and only the most expensive planes can make the journey. And there really isn't that much traffic going to Asia from the east coast compared to Europe. They simply will not fill a 300 passenger plane twice a day to fly to Tokyo to Nashville and back.

On the earlier comment about pricing, international flights to Tokyo are not priced locally but nationally because there are only a few places where the jump from the USA to Tokyo takes place. If I am flying from Charlotte to Japan, I have to go though a gateway city. The price from here is the same regardless if the flight goes through Atlanta, Houston, DFW, Ohare, etc. It's mainly a matter of time of day and the particulars of airline that make the choice with this.

I agree with this assessment. I was at the announcement and the comment Morton made seemed more of a combo of jest and seriousness than straight seriousness. It was a small part of his speech. I was surprised The Tennessean ran with that. Nonetheless, there indeed has to be demand both ways for a Tokyo flight. I suspect there isn't enough to justify filling a big plane.

[sleepy]

The only person who would really commute to Renault in Paris would be CEO Carlos Ghosn (he spends 50% of his time in Paris running Renault, 40% in Japan running Nissan, and 10% in the US running its opperations), but he has a private jet. Nissan has its own HQ in Yokohama and Renault its own, there isn't a large amount of going between.

Even with the Chrysler-Daimler company, Detroit has no direct commercial service to Stuttgart. Instead, the company has I believe some private arrangements with a charter company.

Edit: Raleigh's AA flight to London is subsidized by a pharmaceutical, I believe Smith-Glaxco-Kline, which is a London based company. If Nissan wants to subsidize a Tokyo flight it could be a possibility.