New 44 Story Tower Rumor

[PBJ]

"Fry" was after he started saying Bueller.

Hmmm.. ok..

Back to the building at hand. From what i've seen over the past.. few years here, it's entirely possible that we may never see something like this get built. I've seen plenty of "Concept" renderings and drawings posted by various Architects/Developers/Designers/Planners around here that always start with "Here's what they wanted to do at XYZ intersection".

Don't get me wrong 44 stories would be pretty dang impressive, but as all rumors, I would think we've learned around here not to hold our breath.

[AlexPKeaton]

How frequently do proposed projects get built vs. never get off the ground? Remember the Press's view of Grand Rapids if all the proposals over the years were actually built? I also remember one for Detroit a long time ago in the Free Press. This building hasn't even gotten to the proposal stage yet. Rumors like this get me a little excited, sure, but until we see some other verification of this or an official press release it's still wishful thinking.

Now if your friend showed you a rendering I would hope that they're far along enough to announce something soon. But weren't they close to announcing something a number of months ago?

BTW, I really liked the rendering somebody else posted of their dream for this site. Nicely done. Your Sketchup model of Grand Rapids is quite impressive and accurate as well.

-nb

[tamias6]

How frequently do proposed projects get built vs. never get off the ground? Remember the Press's view of Grand Rapids if all the proposals over the years were actually built? I also remember one for Detroit a long time ago in the Free Press. This building hasn't even gotten to the proposal stage yet. Rumors like this get me a little excited, sure, but until we see some other verification of this or an official press release it's still wishful thinking.

Now if your friend showed you a rendering I would hope that they're far along enough to announce something soon. But weren't they close to announcing something a number of months ago?

BTW, I really liked the rendering somebody else posted of their dream for this site. Nicely done. Your Sketchup model of Grand Rapids is quite impressive and accurate as well.

-nb

I'd say it would have to be about half of proposals presented make it to construction with the odds getting less the bigger the proposal gets.

[GRDadof3]

I would say it depends on the project. A new hospital, hotel, convention center or a civic use building probably has a 95% chance of being built. If it's a project that requires luring tenants or residents AFTER it is announced, it drops dramatically to probably 50% or less. This project hasn't even been announced yet, so it's chances right now are .....maybe 5%. I'll bump it up to 7 to 1 after announcement (varying depending on what its use will be). And you're right tamias, the bigger the project, the worse the odds.

[suydam]

I would say it depends on the project. A new hospital, hotel, convention center or a civic use building probably has a 95% chance of being built. If it's a project that requires luring tenants or residents AFTER it is announced, it drops dramatically to probably 50% or less. This project hasn't even been announced yet, so it's chances right now are .....maybe 5%. I'll bump it up to 7 to 1 after announcement (varying depending on what its use will be). And you're right tamias, the bigger the project, the worse the odds.

What about the odds on things like Tall House condos or "The Derby" in Gaslight Village? Those have murals up, are taking "reservations" but haven't really closed any deals yet (that I know of).

Do projects at that stage usually get built?

What about phase 2 of that type of project (Icon on Bond comes to mind)?

[DwntwnGeo]

What about phase 2 of that type of project (Icon on Bond comes to mind)?

I don't know answers to your other questions, but it has been 15 years or so since the phase I of Bridgewater Place was started. Phase II was orginally going to be office space like tower I but now it will be residental.

[GRDadof3]

What about the odds on things like Tall House condos or "The Derby" in Gaslight Village? Those have murals up, are taking "reservations" but haven't really closed any deals yet (that I know of).

Do projects at that stage usually get built?

What about phase 2 of that type of project (Icon on Bond comes to mind)?

That all depends wholly on the housing market. I would say it's still 50/50, because the hotter the housing market, the more proposals you see put forth. Places like San Diego had literally over a hundred mid and high-rise condo projects proposed over the last couple of years. The way their housing market is starting to severely pull back right now, they may see 20 or fewer of those built. A similar situation in Vegas right now. The "flippers" are the first to get skittish, and if there are a great deal of them in a market, the slowdown is even more severe. I have no idea how many flippers/investors there are in the GR condo market right now, and I have no idea how those projects will go.

At some point, the carrying and marketing costs for a project drive the numbers into the dirt if you take too long to kick off. Either features get severely cut to bring the numbers down, the project gets sold, or the project quietly evaporates.

[AlexPKeaton]

Well, that may be one point in our favor here, we don't have anywhere near the level of housing speculation as other parts of the country. The speculators can destabilize a market, as when they're buying they're not necessarily also selling a corresponding piece of property like a typical homeowner. And when they're selling, they're not necessarily buying a corresponding piece of property either.

Grand Rapids should be pretty stable. Our huge drop in new home sales probably has more do to with our slow growth and increased interest rates than the end of housing speculation. So many people bought houses when interest rates were low that I think a lot of sales were pulled forward and now we're sort of in the vacuum.

-nb

[CK1]

I have no idea how many flippers/investors there are in the GR condo market right now, and I have no idea how those projects will go.

I've heard from individuals that have gone through the "intro" process for the new Bridgewater Place condos that the marketers have stated that many people have placed deposits for two units - one for themselves and another they plan on putting on the market as soon as the keys are handed over. Not sure how prevelant this is in GR's current developments, but unfortuntely does exist...

[DwntwnGeo]

I've heard from individuals that have gone through the "intro" process for the new Bridgewater Place condos that the marketers have stated that many people have placed deposits for two units - one for themselves and another they plan on putting on the market as soon as the keys are handed over. Not sure how prevelant this is in GR's current developments, but unfortuntely does exist...

I think there are some for every developement. Didn't some investor buy an entire floor for Icon on Bond?

[CK1]

I think there are some for every developement. Didn't some investor buy an entire floor for Icon on Bond?

When I went through the sales office early this past summer, I was told that a physicians group had purchased an entire floor for various uses (personal, visiting doc's, etc.). I think it was either the second or third floor from the top, so they must have paid a pretty penny...

[GRDadof3]

It's probably my fault for taking this off-topic. Commercial is much different than residential, and I would imagine this is a commercial project if it gets announced.

[gvsusean]

It's probably my fault for taking this off-topic. Commercial is much different than residential, and I would imagine this is a commercial project if it gets announced.

what makes you think it will be commercial?? inside info??

[numstead]

what makes you think it will be commercial?? inside info??

probably just a hunch based on the fact that the downtown/near-downtown housing market is pretty well saturated with prospective projects already.

[tamias6]

probably just a hunch based on the fact that the downtown/near-downtown housing market is pretty well saturated with prospective projects already.

....which makes me view this 44 story tower rumor as just that. The Housing market in DT is becoming saturated. That means no room for a tower full of condos. The demand for office space is simply not there which rules out a tower full of offices. Retail is not going to need 44 stories of shopping unless Wal-Mart's got a hair brained idea of plopping a vertical super Wally-World smack dap in the middle of the city. Thus that leaves only one chance for this tower making it to construction with in 10 to 15 years. A fortune 500 company or an entity at least the size of Meijer is moving its corporate headquarters to DT Grand Rapids. Otherwise its just here say.

[AlexPKeaton]

Well wasn't that the original rumor, that a particular bank was going to build a "signature" tower downtown? Perhaps they wouldn't fill all the space but are planning to lease some out in order to build a taller building. It's only a rumor, but at least that scenario is plausible.

-nb

[tamias6]

Well wasn't that the original rumor, that a particular bank was going to build a "signature" tower downtown? Perhaps they wouldn't fill all the space but are planning to lease some out in order to build a taller building. It's only a rumor, but at least that scenario is plausible.

-nb

That was a tower that was suppose to go in on Elias Lot at Lyon and Ottowa. I remember seeing renderings of it on the news a couple of years ago. But for some reason I'm not too clear on anymore the project fell though.

As for plausablility of this rumor of becoming reality, a 44 story tower would loosely translate into a half a million square feet of floor space to sell or lease out.. That in mind I think DT would need to see demand for office space to come back in a strong way and enough time for the area to absorb all of the incoming housing being built or proposed and in turn for housing demand to pick up again. Once these requirments are meet, then the climate would be right to justify a large building like the one being rumored about. But these requirments could be circumvented if a very large company decided to move its corporate HQ to DT GR. However because of the saturated hosuing market and anemic demand for office space, the company would have to fill all but a very few floors of their new home and lease the remaining space to retail. That seems to be an expensive proposition as many high rise HQ's have only about a third to half of there spaces used by their owners while the rest is leased out to help pay back the building cost and maintance.

[GRDadof3]

I think it's pretty obvious that no one is going to come forward on this. Topic closed.

[localtalent]

Here's a little update:

This project seems to be on its' last legs. Apparently was pretty well put together (with at least two major tenants), 44 stories at 50 Monroe.

However, the city apparently isn't interested in providing the incentives necessary to make it happen, so it appears extremely unlikely.

I guess we don't actually want to put together projects that would attract business back to the core, eh?

[snoogit]

Here's a little update:

This project seems to be on its' last legs. Apparently was pretty well put together (with at least two major tenants), 44 stories at 50 Monroe.

However, the city apparently isn't interested in providing the incentives necessary to make it happen, so it appears extremely unlikely.

I guess we don't actually want to put together projects that would attract business back to the core, eh?

Any idea what were the incentives the developer was looking for? Its hard to blame the city if the incentives weren't in their best interest.

[localtalent]

Any idea what were the incentives the developer was looking for? Its hard to blame the city if the incentives weren't in their best interest.

One would think there isn't much the city wouldn't do to get a new, landmark, class A tower in the center of the skyline.

But to answer your question directly: I don't know what the developer requested or even if it would be considered typical for such a project.

[egrguy]

RiverGrand fallout? It appeared that the city did everything they could for that project and then made an about face on its agenda.

However, whatever the inventives, especially if the tenants were suburban would make a great deal of sense to me.

[localtalent]

RiverGrand fallout?

It appeared that the city did everything they could for that project and then made an about face on its agenda.

I don't think it ever appeared that the city did everything they could for that project.

And I also think it's way too early in the RiverGrand timeline to talk about fallout. There's a chance it still gets done.

[DwntwnGeo]

Would the City be concerned that if both developements (New Tower at 50 Monroe & RiverGrand) were to be approved and built that there maybe too much Class A building space in town? If there are two tenants willing to relocate to downtown, and the City approves RiverGrand (or other developement) maybe the City would like them to relocat at the new developement site to help create a more stable area? On the other hand, having two more tenants in the downtown core area, should bring more interest into the whatever project is build/developed along the Grand River.

[GRDadof3]

Hmm, I was just informed by someone who works DIRECTLY with the building owners of 50 Monroe, that they have not approached the city on any kind of incentives. I think we should limit the attacks on the city staff and commissioners to first-hand accounts and their reported actions, not hearsay. That's why entire threads dedicated to unsubstantiated rumors are questionable at best.