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On 3/19/2020 at 9:22 AM, nashvylle said:

Something has to be worked out with the banks, because the developers on the hook to complete the projects on the loan term. If banks give extensions, developers will work with GCs and subs to alternate work schedules. 

The banks and the banking system are quite strong.  I would hope they will cooperate with borrowers, with some encouragement from the Fed.

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10 minutes ago, Mr_Bond said:

The banks and the banking system are quite strong.  I would hope they will cooperate with borrowers, with some encouragement from the Fed.

Banks are not in the  loan to own business, but mezz lenders or predatory lenders are. So with the construction projects that are financed by traditional banks, I agree @Mr_Bond that it's more likely that extensions will be made, but if you have financing from funds that can own and develop any projects on their own, that's a different story. 

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15 minutes ago, nashvylle said:

Banks are not in the  loan to own business, but mezz lenders or predatory lenders are. So with the construction projects that are financed by traditional banks, I agree @Mr_Bond that it's more likely that extensions will be made, but if you have financing from funds that can own and develop any projects on their own, that's a different story. 

It would be interesting to learn more from someone with deep knowledge of real estate lending and development.  To fully understand this aspect, we would need to split the industry by type of developer and lender, like you've started to do here.  There would be a small group that build for their own book, like Buckingham (I think).  To what extent do they rely on bank financing?  They may make that decision on a project-by-project basis.  Other developers may gather funding from a variety of sources so if one backer pulls out they have to find another to replace them, or another backer(s) have to take the available percentage of the project.  Finding replacements for those dropping out may be hard to do right now.

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1 hour ago, Mr_Bond said:

It would be interesting to learn more from someone with deep knowledge of real estate lending and development.  To fully understand this aspect, we would need to split the industry by type of developer and lender, like you've started to do here.  There would be a small group that build for their own book, like Buckingham (I think).  To what extent do they rely on bank financing?  They may make that decision on a project-by-project basis.  Other developers may gather funding from a variety of sources so if one backer pulls out they have to find another to replace them, or another backer(s) have to take the available percentage of the project.  Finding replacements for those dropping out may be hard to do right now.

my background is real estate lending, then acquisitions, now development. While I am not an expert, the easiest way I think about it is this-

The more leverage (ie financing) you have, the greater the returns.
The more leverage you have, usually the more lenders you have (Senior Debt (banks) / Mezz Debt (funds). 
The more lenders you have, the greater the complexity and the greater the risk in uncertain times.
While the foreclosure process for banks is lengthy and litigious (bc they are foreclosing on the asset itself), mezz debt foreclosure is much much faster (bc they are foreclosing on just the equity of the borrower)
 

If the construction industry stops, and you have a mezz lender, I hope you have a force majeure clause, as this virus certainly is out of the ordinary. 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, nashvylle said:

my background is real estate lending, then acquisitions, now development. While I am not an expert, the easiest way I think about it is this-

The more leverage (ie financing) you have, the greater the returns.
The more leverage you have, usually the more lenders you have (Senior Debt (banks) / Mezz Debt (funds). 
The more lenders you have, the greater the complexity and the greater the risk in uncertain times.
While the foreclosure process for banks is lengthy and litigious (bc they are foreclosing on the asset itself), mezz debt foreclosure is much much faster (bc they are foreclosing on just the equity of the borrower)
 

If the construction industry stops, and you have a mezz lender, I hope you have a force majeure clause, as this virus certainly is out of the ordinary. 

I've heard of force majeure in commodity-related businesses but am not familiar with its use in other industries.

In addition to personal financial planning and portfolio management, I did M&A for three years and started a company that raised VC funding several times.

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