South Carolina to become Key Political Battleground State

[SimCity]

That's great to hear. Can you put a link to the article?

Sorry about the typos. Here is a site links concerning Columbia's ranking in knowledge capita. Both of these are small pdf files. And here is the Expansion Management website explaining their grading criteria.

[monsoon]

This is a amateurish map I made of the 2004 election that shows Bush vs Kerry. It's interesting that with just a few exceptions, the candidate won their county's by a pretty wide margin. I am especially interested in why Kerry won by such a wide margin in Columbia, but was trounced by Bush in Greenville and Charleston. It's like the 3 urban areas of SC are very different from each other in terms of what they look for in a candidate.

[Spartan]

It probably goes back to Columbia having a high percentage of college graduates living there, since they tend to be more left leaning. What surprises me is that when it comes to local politics, they aren't that different from the rest of the state.

[whitehourseview]

It probably goes back to Columbia having a high percentage of college graduates living there, since they tend to be more left leaning. What surprises me is that when it comes to local politics, they aren't that different from the rest of the state.

I would think that the map's blue regions show more than college graduates. Richland, among other blue counties like Orangeburg and Bamberg and Sumter, have larger black populations and other rural counties like McCormick or Lee have enough of the traditional Southern Democratic base, they still vote for the party of Jackson.

The blue counties are essentially Jim Clyburn's sixth Congressonial district. http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/...st/sc06_109.gif

Even during the Reagan landslide of '84, most of those blue counties still voted Democrat. Even Richland in '84, for instance, was barely a Reagan/Bush county, when say Greenville and Lexington had over 75% vote for Reagan/Bush.

In Richland county's case, I would bet that there are similar numbers of college graduates as next door Lexington County, but Lexington remains one of the three of four essential GOP solid counties.

[The_sandlapper]

As far back as I know Richland County has always had left lean to it. It's not real hard to see. Columbia has been the crossroads of the state with state govt., USC, Fort Jackson, 3 major interstates, etc.. it's not quite as isolated in there respective corners of the state such as Charleston or Greenville. It has a large middle income minority population, and is one of the most educated counties in the nation (45th) per census. The latter of the two doesn't gaurentee a left lean but it is definatly a unique demographic to SC, and the southeast. USC has alot to do with it but Columbia's "vibe" is just different.

[waccamatt]

It probably goes back to Columbia having a high percentage of college graduates living there, since they tend to be more left leaning. What surprises me is that when it comes to local politics, they aren't that different from the rest of the state.

I'm not quite sure why you say that, Spartan. Most Columbia and Richland council members would be self-identified democrats, even though the elections are non-partisan and most senators and representatives with majority Richland County districts are Democrats, also. Richland County's Sheriff, Leon Lott, is one of the most progressive in the country.

[waccamatt]

This is a amateurish map I made of the 2004 election that shows Bush vs Kerry. It's interesting that with just a few exceptions, the candidate won their county's by a pretty wide margin. I am especially interested in why Kerry won by such a wide margin in Columbia, but was trounced by Bush in Greenville and Charleston. It's like the 3 urban areas of SC are very different from each other in terms of what they look for in a candidate.

The types of people that move to Columbia from outside South Carolina tend to be much different than those that move to the other major cities in South Carolina. Metro Columbia has no less than 8 colleges and universities and even the Lutheran Seminary here is known to one of the most liberal seminaries in the South. With thousands of educators based here, many from other parts of the country, there is a great breadth of opinion not seen in most parts of South Carolina. Even Fort Jackson, albeit a military base, brings a great diversity of people to the area and helps to support a large number of ethnic stores. Columbia also has a much larger Gay and Lesbian community than any other city in the state; there are more Gay and Lesbian organizations based here than the entire remainder of the state put together.

[Spartan]

I'm not quite sure why you say that, Spartan. Most Columbia and Richland council members would be self-identified democrats, even though the elections are non-partisan and most senators and representatives with majority Richland County districts are Democrats, also. Richland County's Sheriff, Leon Lott, is one of the most progressive in the country.

Is that not what I said?

[Pillsbury]

Columbia is a liberal city, but I don't think that catagorizing a city as liberal simply because it voted for Kerry is really the best idea. A good example is Augusta. Over here we went 60-65% for Kerry and you have to be a Democrat to do anything in this city, but Augusta is not really a liberal place.... or at least it doesn't feel liberal.

[vicupstate]

I'm not quite sure why you say that, Spartan. Most Columbia and Richland council members would be self-identified democrats, even though the elections are non-partisan and most senators and representatives with majority Richland County districts are Democrats, also. Richland County's Sheriff, Leon Lott, is one of the most progressive in the country.

Waccamatt is correct that Richland is pretty solid for Democrats at the local level. If I remember correctly there are five county-wide courthouse offices of which four are Democrats. The COUNTY council is NOT non-partisan, but is elected by party. Democrats hold a majority there as well. There are four residents state senators, three are Democrats. A majority of the State representatives are Democrats also.

Richland County is the one bright spot for the SC Democratic party. Richland County was transitioning from Dem to GOP along with the rest of SC from the 1960's through the early 1990's. Since then the Democrats have completely reversed there course, in direct contrast to the remainder of SC. Richland was very evenly matched between the two parties from 1984-1994.

[waccamatt]

Is that not what I said?

I was referring to this part: What surprises me is that when it comes to local politics, they aren't that different from the rest of the state.

Columbia is a liberal city, but I don't think that catagorizing a city as liberal simply because it voted for Kerry is really the best idea. A good example is Augusta. Over here we went 60-65% for Kerry and you have to be a Democrat to do anything in this city, but Augusta is not really a liberal place.... or at least it doesn't feel liberal.

You're absolutely right; that's why I tried to mention some other factors. More than anything it's just a feeling. I'll use Nashville, for example, I've been there a couple of times and I feel downright uncomfortable there for the most part, while I feel totally comfortable in Durham and Atlanta.

[Spartan]

oh. Well it doesn't matter. Local politicians all want the same things. Does it really matter what party your sherrif represents? The Sewer Commissioner? Thats all I meant.

[waccamatt]

oh. Well it doesn't matter. Local politicians all want the same things. Does it really matter what party your sherrif represents? The Sewer Commissioner? Thats all I meant.

Gotcha, Spartan. I do think there are huge differences in the services provided by different counties. I have a friend that lives in Lexington County and they don't even have trash pickup. I've always lived in the city and I had never heard of anyone not having trash pickup before.

[whitehourseview]

Gotcha, Spartan. I do think there are huge differences in the services provided by different counties. I have a friend that lives in Lexington County and they don't even have trash pickup. I've always lived in the city and I had never heard of anyone not having trash pickup before.

What part of Lexington County? There are some real rural parts of the county towards the west. Its not unusual at all for rural areas to not have trash pick up.

[waccamatt]

What part of Lexington County? There are some real rural parts of the county towards the west. Its not unusual at all for rural areas to not have trash pick up.

Gardendale off Bush River Road...decidedly not rural.

[monsoon]

At least when I lived in SC the unincoprorated parts of the state did not offer garbage pickup. A homeowner had to contract with a garbage service to get the trash picked up.

[breed]

In unincorporated Greenville County, you have to hire one of the private garbage companies.

[Spartan]

At least when I lived in SC the unincoprorated parts of the state did not offer garbage pickup. A homeowner had to contract with a garbage service to get the trash picked up.

Thats how it is everywhere so far as I know.

[mallguy]

I can see the Democratic Party having an early primary in SC to help a Southern (and thus perhaps centrist) candidate win, instead of the John Kerrys and Howard Deans of the world.

Even if this succeeds, given that John Edwards and Bill Clinton didn't help carry the Carolinas, I have doubts that it will help Democrats pick candidates who will win Southern electoral votes in the general election. This strategy could backfire, as I assume that the core Democratic base in South Carolina is very liberal, comprised of groups that have been historically disenfranchised, and who would be more likely to pick a liberal activist than a centrist type as a candidate. Based on election results, I'd figure that pretty much all conservatives are Republican, as is a considerable amount of centrists.

[vicupstate]

I can see the Democratic Party having an early primary in SC to help a Southern (and thus perhaps centrist) candidate win, instead of the John Kerrys and Howard Deans of the world.

Even if this succeeds, given that John Edwards and Bill Clinton didn't help carry the Carolinas, I have doubts that it will help Democrats pick candidates who will win Southern electoral votes in the general election. This strategy could backfire, as I assume that the core Democratic base in South Carolina is very liberal, comprised of groups that have been historically disenfranchised, and who would be more likely to pick a liberal activist than a centrist type as a candidate. Based on election results, I'd figure that pretty much all conservatives are Republican, as is a considerable amount of centrists.

By national standards, SC Democrats are very conservative, and would pull the nominee towards the center, not to the left. SC Democrats will vote for a moderate-conservative and most certainly a southerner. That candidate won't win SC or NC in the general election, but by helping a moderate get the nomination, that moderate nominee will win states like Arkansas and Louisiana, in the south and Midwest states like Ohio and Illinois. The only Democrats to win the White House in modern times have been Southerners. Putting a Southern state in the early voting increases the chances of a Southerner (ie potential winner) getting the nomination.

[waccamatt]

By national standards, SC Democrats are very conservative, and would pull the nominee towards the center, not to the left. SC Democrats will vote for a moderate-conservative and most certainly a southerner. That candidate won't win SC or NC in the general election, but by helping a moderate get the nomination, that moderate nominee will win states like Arkansas and Louisiana, in the south and Midwest states like Ohio and Illinois. The only Democrats to win the White House in modern times have been Southerners. Putting a Southern state in the early voting increases the chances of a Southerner (ie potential winner) getting the nomination.

I agree for the most part. Yes, the average South Carolina Democrat is more conservative than one from other parts of the country, but I know an awful lot of good, liberal Democrats in my circles. Likewise I know some fairly conservative Democrats, too. I totally agree that for a Democrat to win the White House they must win at least 1 southern state. I don't know which potential candidate that might be, but John Edwards is a possible candidate.

[flotown]

I think former Virginia governer Mark Warner would do well in SC and the south overall. Plus, it would likely give the Dems a key southern state (Virginia). The Democrats would be wise in nominating him, but he might be too moderate for liberal, big money donors from the northeast and west coast. On the other hand, Edwards, though a Carolina boy, is viewed by many potential swing voters as an ambulance chasing trial lawyer. Plus he's already 0 for 1 in presidential elections.

On a different note, I'd be interested in seeing a the racial breakdown of the 2004 presidential vote in SC, especially in Richland county, as well as breakdowns by sex, income etc. I'm facinated by stereotypes given voters of both parties, and the apparent contradictions within, and seeing if the demographics back them up. For example:

-If SC is one of the poorest states, and Democrats are supposedly for the downtrodden, why is SC a Republican stronghold, since they are viewed as the party of the rich?

-If the view of Democrats (esp. in Richland Co.) is of young, diverse, educated (and by association affluent and upwardly mobile), why is Williamsburg county, poor and poorly educated, one of the most solid Democratic strongholds?

This is why i'd love to see a demographic voting breakdown. Does anybody have a link to such info?

[whitehourseview]

I think former Virginia governer Mark Warner would do well in SC and the south overall. Plus, it would likely give the Dems a key southern state (Virginia). The Democrats would be wise in nominating him, but he might be too moderate for liberal, big money donors from the northeast and west coast. On the other hand, Edwards, though a Carolina boy, is viewed by many potential swing voters as an ambulance chasing trial lawyer. Plus he's already 0 for 1 in presidential elections.

On a different note, I'd be interested in seeing a the racial breakdown of the 2004 presidential vote in SC, especially in Richland county, as well as breakdowns by sex, income etc. I'm facinated by stereotypes given voters of both parties, and the apparent contradictions within, and seeing if the demographics back them up. For example:

-If SC is one of the poorest states, and Democrats are supposedly for the downtrodden, why is SC a Republican stronghold, since they are viewed as the party of the rich?

-If the view of Democrats (esp. in Richland Co.) is of young, diverse, educated (and by association affluent and upwardly mobile), why is Williamsburg county, poor and poorly educated, one of the most solid Democratic strongholds?

This is why i'd love to see a demographic voting breakdown. Does anybody have a link to such info?

I would like to see that breakdown as well. I'm still extremely doubtful that Richland votes Democratic and next door Lexington Republican because there are more college educated folks in Richland than in Lexington. I can't see the differences in education in the two making that consistent a difference. There are larger minority populations in Richland, and poorer populations as well in comparison to Lexington.

My understanding is that historically, based on campaign donations and voting patterns, is that Republican strongholds tend to be middle class enclaves and Democratic areas tend to be either wealthy or poorer areas. Which is why I believe Republicans tend to do better in the suburbs and the Dems better in urban regions.

[waccamatt]

While Richland County is more heavily minority (45%) than Lexington County (around 16%, I think), Democratic candidates do well in Richland amongst white voters as well. A while back I did some in depth research into Richland County voting in the 2004 Presidential election and found that Kerry even carried a slight majority in Richland County amongst white voters. Can you find anywhere else in South Carolina (or much of the South outside Florida) where this would be true? I think there are several reasons: the higher percentage of college graduates, the high % of residents born out of state (esp. from the Northeast), the large gay and lesbian population in Richland and the fact that more progressive people from other parts of SC look for a like-minded community and they find that in Columbia. These are not necessarily facts, but they are theories of mine.

[mallguy]

-If SC is one of the poorest states, and Democrats are supposedly for the downtrodden, why is SC a Republican stronghold, since they are viewed as the party of the rich?

-If the view of Democrats (esp. in Richland Co.) is of young, diverse, educated (and by association affluent and upwardly mobile), why is Williamsburg county, poor and poorly educated, one of the most solid Democratic strongholds?

This is in line with my view that the Democratic base is liberal- it consists of a historically disenfranchised group that is less affluent than other South Carolinians and is thus in favor of liberal policies to help improve its lot (understandably so, I think- I have sympathy for this group). The overwhelming majority of everyone else in the state votes Republican.