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The Velocity


NewTowner

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Gawking was probably a poor word choice on my part, no personal slight was intended. I only meant to point out that the weight of Bristol's dozens of completed projects deserved far greater consideration in assessing their capabilities than that of a rendering of a yet to be completed project. As to the BonB rendering, I had not seen that particular version. So, I guess I stand corrected on that point as well: Bristol appears completely capable of building a project as ugly as it's rendering.

For the sake of the Gulch let's hope that they can do the Icon rendering justice and not return to their historical pattern with respect to the Velocity project.

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Gawking was probably a poor word choice on my part, no personal slight was intended. I only meant to point out that the weight of Bristol's dozens of completed projects deserved far greater consideration in assessing their capabilities than that of a rendering of a yet to be completed project. As to the BonB rendering, I had not seen that particular version. So, I guess I stand corrected on that point as well: Bristol appears completely capable of building a project as ugly as it's rendering.

For the sake of the Gulch let's hope that they can do the Icon rendering justice and not return to their historical pattern with respect to the Velocity project.

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Hey Velocity, do the Art Deco look and not the rendering in SouthsideJ's post. That look of the Art D is fits in if done in moderation IMO, but the other is something that I would expect from a project that doesn't have a focus market. Kind of like a shotgun blast... You will hit something, but not always the target.

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Lots of not so great tech and internet stocks were bought up quickly in 1999 and early 2000 too. Whether it was intentionally planned or dumb luck Bristol's timing of delivery for BonB couldn't have been more perfect. Residential demand for midtown has always been insatiable and when they begin selling they were the only game in town on the front side of the condo boom in Nashville.

The true test for Bristol's product will be how well their units resell in a less frenzied buyer market. And judging from the length of time that for sale signs have been hanging off of balconies (so much for HOA restrictions) it would seem BonB doesn't seem to be the hot commodity that it was just a year or so ago. But again, I think the true test for BonB and, frankly, all the new condo buildings in Nashville will be how well resales hold up over a longer period of time, particularly when the market eventually softens a bit.

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It seems your theory would assume that all condos, etc. have the same cost basis. I would contend that sales are always based upon the buyers ability to afford the unit. Encore, Viridian, and Adalicia are probably better built (or at least have more ammenities) than say BonB or ICON, etc. That is not to say that these are of totally poor quality, just a differnt price point. Signature (your favorite) would be even more desirable based upon quality of build and ammenities. And finally when exactly do you expect this downturn to happen? We may be in a slight slowdown but I have not seen anyone predict a downturn in this market anytime in the near future.

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It seems your theory would assume that all condos, etc. have the same cost basis. I would contend that sales are always based upon the buyers ability to afford the unit. Encore, Viridian, and Adalicia are probably better built (or at least have more ammenities) than say BonB or ICON, etc. That is not to say that these are of totally poor quality, just a differnt price point. Signature (your favorite) would be even more desirable based upon quality of build and ammenities.
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As I am sure you are aware investing in real estate is a long term rather than short term committment. Sure there will be cycles of flipping, etc. but just like buying stocks, you are buying into the potential of that investment. True "specualtors" are the ones that have the means to wait out any downturn in the market. Nashville and the downtown areas are changing rapidly, meaning huge growth in the next 10 years not the next 10 minutes. If you are one of those who are now paying $400 per s.f. at Viridian, etc. then you are not a wise buyer. The price will get there it will just take some time.

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I think there is going to be some risk to the people who bought in at $400/sft. I have a buddy that is already nervous about his resale potential of the icon. However, there was a great statistic that there are less than 3,000 residents in downtown nashville compared to 10,000 plus in charlotte. That is an amazing gap and granted this did come from Tony G's people, but the guy is not an idiot . I own some condos in green hills and they are appreciating very nicely almost up to $200/sft which is reasonable if you ask me and has good fundamentals. Cool Springs is also another area I like if I were a buyer as we get a little pause in buying and because fundamentals there are so good. Eventually, wages can't support high cost condos and I still do not understand who is going to live in signature at those prices. I am sure it will be the best but this is nashville, not atlanta.

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I think there is going to be some risk to the people who bought in at $400/sft. I have a buddy that is already nervous about his resale potential of the icon. However, there was a great statistic that there are less than 3,000 residents in downtown nashville compared to 10,000 plus in charlotte. That is an amazing gap and granted this did come from Tony G's people, but the guy is not an idiot . I own some condos in green hills and they are appreciating very nicely almost up to $200/sft which is reasonable if you ask me and has good fundamentals. Cool Springs is also another area I like if I were a buyer as we get a little pause in buying and because fundamentals there are so good. Eventually, wages can't support high cost condos and I still do not understand who is going to live in signature at those prices. I am sure it will be the best but this is nashville, not atlanta.
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(Pasted from ST post) There may be a cast of thousands dying for an urban Nashville lifestyle but they apparently aren't willing (or able ?) to make a purchase at any price; see earlier Viridian re-sale comments. Interestingly, most of the "downtown dwellers" in cities quoted in the Downtown Partnership's study came to own their units long before the condo stagflation reared its head. As you wisely noted, nearly all the new buyers here are going to have to make sense of these new prices with wages that haven't come close to keeping pace with the rising cost of condos. That may not help developers of new projects, like Rythm, ST, WES and several others that need to see the market firmly absorb lots of new units well above $350/sf and beyond to be confident in the continued strength of the Nashville condo market.
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And... you cannot resell that many that quickly. Why would a buyer pay the prices on the flip at Viridian when they can get much more reasonable pricing at Encore? You have to hold it for a little while until the demand is there when buildings are not going up all over town. Some say that there is not enough demand, I disagree and say that the buyers are smarter and more patient and it takes time.

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And... you cannot resell that many that quickly. Why would a buyer pay the prices on the flip at Viridian when they can get much more reasonable pricing at Encore? You have to hold it for a little while until the demand is there when buildings are not going up all over town. Some say that there is not enough demand, I disagree and say that the buyers are smarter and more patient and it takes time.
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It depends on how badly someone wants to move downtown. If they want to move now, then there is limited product, pretty much Viridian. If they can way a year or so, then Encore or maybe Rolling Mill Hill or the project on the north side of downtown -- Harrison Lofts
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And... you cannot resell that many that quickly. Why would a buyer pay the prices on the flip at Viridian when they can get much more reasonable pricing at Encore? You have to hold it for a little while until the demand is there when buildings are not going up all over town. Some say that there is not enough demand, I disagree and say that the buyers are smarter and more patient and it takes time.
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