Granby Tower

[Sky06]

This is like someone running a taco stand for ten years, then deciding to open a Michelin rated restaurant. I'm surprised he has gotten this far with the project, but hopefully he has learned some valuable lessons along the way. Even if this thing does get off the ground I worry that the construction phase won't go smoothly or efficiently. How many cost overruns will this project have? I really wish Mr. Gaddams could find a partner to help build Granby, other wise this project could be a disaster.

[scm]

to think how close I came to putting money down on one of these. What a great concept, and the models will blow you away. They almost got some of my money. (actual sticking point was that our dog, and a high rise, are incompatable -- who wants to get dressed when he wants to pee at 10:30? I don't think we can train him to go in a litter box. )

If I had my money tied up in this deal, would I feel like an idiot! One of my college classmates does -- I will have to ask JB how he's feeling now.

The points bout Gaddams being in over his head are dead on. That's what makes the P'Town waterfront deal much more believable. LPC will get their deal funded, because they have such a track record, lenders come to them. Maybe Gaddams can get some of his funding from Tony Soprano's boys......

[Chesapeake Pirate]

This is better than second guessing the football coach calling the plays while watching from home in the comfort of one's living room.

The fact is that the GSA courthouse expansion delay was a major blow to the timing, marketing and financial viability of this project.

I think it is pretty obvious that there must not be enough units under contract to get the lenders to open the flow of money.

The unknown is just how short are they, and how much time do they have to hit the number.

Obviously, that type of information will never be made public prior to any final decisions.

I still admire Gaddams for his vision and for sticking with this, and hope it works out.

[Telmnstr]

You have to step back and take a look at the market. Real estate has been a mania, like the playstation 3 selling for $2000 at Christmas even though there was no good games. When the project was first announced, it was on the heals of the start of the ponzi scheme. It was right after all the stories of "investors" sleeping in tents to get their spot in the hot new condo tower in Miami. Google it, it was all over the news in major cities. People camped in tents, and got to put down a deposit on a condo. If they were good, they could sell their spot for $50-$100K the same day. Seriously. Now there is something like 100,000 condo units coming online in Miami, with no one to really occupy them.

Granby Tower is just our version of that. Some people really want to live there, perhaps they cashed out selling their existing home for a lot of money. But the problem is, the courthouse and other delays pushed it back, and Hampton Roads isn't Miami.

Right now, it's after Christmas. People are still trying to sell their playstation 3's, but aren't able to get that $2000 that they went for right before Christmas.

It's way more complex, and gets into Wall Street and fraud, and mortgages being made to people who will never be able to pay them. They would have been okay if things would keep appreciating, but that is impossible as salaries aren't.

Pilot had interviews with people who were moving into Granby Tower, and I remember the people they interviewed were mortgage brokers. These people are now struggling... not so bad yet, because they are making new loans to people they sold bad loans to a year or two ago and earning tons of money on the re-fis, but the credit market is going to tighten like something fierce.

While it's fun to look at these cool tall buildings, it's really not been good for our economy in the long run. Short term everything looked great but I fear there is going to be hell to pay.

If you didn't see it, Bear Sterns hit a huge bump... it's kind of showing up now that all of these loans made to people aren't good, and it's blowing up now. Once there is no one to buy the garbage mortgage backed securities, there is no easy loans and buyers will have to come up with 10-20% down payment and have a real credit and job history... this will kill, and probably why the sales are absolutely dead for Granby Tower.

Banks are taking it already pretty hardcore on failing construction loans. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the reason why they are having problems with the loan, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's denied.

Oh by the way everyone... I no longer work at the particle accelerator in Newport News... now working in downtown Norfolk again for a startup, so if any urbanites work downtown and want to get together for a lunch lets get it going. I walk to work, which is good. Price of commuting was too high, and new job is much better as far as the work goes.

[Chesapeake Pirate]

Markets go through hot, medium and cold cycles all the time. The funny thing is no one ever knows the duration. The long term trend with real estate is up. My parents bought a home in NY for $21,000 in 1957 and sold it for $330,000 in 1990. They then bought a new home for $200,000 in Chesapeake in 1990. I sold it for $305,000 after my widowed Mom passed away in 2000. I bought my first home in VB for $50,000 in 1979 and sold it for $65,000 in 1982. I then bought a home in Chesapeake for $95,000 in 1982 and sold it for $352,000 in 2006. I bought a condo in downtown Norfolk in 2004 which has appreciated at least 50%, even when considering the current soft market. I don't know anyone who has ever lost money on real estate unless they had to sell very quickly after buying. My only financial regret is my life is not becoming a real estate investor when I was younger. So, while it may not be Christmas in 2007 or 2008 for the real estate market, history tells us that the market will survive and ultimately rebound. Focusing on the short terms negatives can cause people to miss out on the long term benefits of real estate ownership.

[Padman]

In the long run, there's probably nothing safer than an investment in real property. Norfolk doesn't have much competition in the residential tower department either. I sure hope this project gets built. It's a very good investment and any firm with experience in urban development should see that. Shoot..buy a block of condos in the tower and rent them out for a few years until it's a good time to sell.

[Telmnstr]

Markets go through hot, medium and cold cycles all the time. So, while it may not be Christmas in 2007 or 2008 for the real estate market, history tells us that the market will survive and ultimately rebound. Focusing on the short terms negatives can cause people to miss out on the long term benefits of real estate ownership.

[Telmnstr]

In the long run, there's probably nothing safer than an investment in real property. Norfolk doesn't have much competition in the residential tower department either. I sure hope this project gets built. It's a very good investment and any firm with experience in urban development should see that. Shoot..buy a block of condos in the tower and rent them out for a few years until it's a good time to sell.

[Chesapeake Pirate]

I work at a young, startup company ... I mean, straight out of .com silicon valley style stuff. From what I can tell almost everyone there already has a house, has a family, wouldn't live in a Condo. It's more like a field fo dreams. Condos were hot with investors looking to flip, and young people who aren't aware of what is going on and are afraid of "being rpiced out forever." The American dream marketed to the people is a house with a picket fence, not an apartment with whatever is hot on the market (granite + fake wood floors + stainless steel appliances) coated in the overused word Luxury. I did some back of the envelope numbers on Ghent on the Square, and it looked like if they sold the apartments (as condos) for the numbers they were asking, it should give the owners profits well over 10 million (based on the real property appraisal and how much extra they were charging to buy em).

Seriously, 40% cut in prices will be good for the country and economy.

[Padman]

I believe that the retirement and the downsizer market will grow a good deal in the next ten years or so. I think that Granby Tower may have been marketed a bit too strongly towards the yuppie element, which just isn't a very large group here. I still think that if they emphasized soundproofing and some common areas (with that astounding view) they would do very well. I'm in the generation of boomers that doesn't want to live right at the hospital, but would enjoy the other amenities of downtown life. Trouble is, I play saxophone and keyboards for fun, and I love dogs. I would drive my neighbors nuts in a condo.