3344!

[SmellyCat]

Like someone returning from a job in Boston?

Precisely. Hey atlrvr, how's the weather up there in Boston? Must be great to have some cooler summer weather for a change, huh?

[atlrvr]

Hahaha....nah, if I move back, I'm moving back into my house there......or The Vue is prices do fall.

I'm loving they heat wave....the hard part is trying to convince the wife that Boston is as warm as Charlotte year round.....we'll see how long I can keep that illusion going.

It is odd though, for all the people I met in Charlotte from the northeast, I haven't met anyone here that has any interest of visiting, let alone moving, to anywhere in the south except for one lady who wants to retire to Florida.

[Charlotte_native]

And 25% of it is already on the market? That does not sound healty to me.

I put the same stats on the Vue vs. 210 thread a few days ago -- from my own research -- Doug seemed to have the exact same #'s but with a positive spin. He thinks this is OK while most of the rest of us think this is not healthy. I stil don't think it is.

The developer has 5, I think, actively listed (David Furman always holds some units back to sell at "current" prices when his projects are complete). That is 5 of 21 for sale.

Of the 6 that are on the MLS as "pending" or under contract, 4 are developer units. That shows how much better his units are moving that those marked up by flippers.

The more important perspective on this goes with traditional #'s for healthy markets whether it is a neighborhood or a condo complex. You want to have about half as many properties under contract as the number that are listed. Courtside, to be healthy by that model, should have 10 or 11 under contract, not 25%. And all units have not been closed on yet by their purchasers.

It is going to be a buyers market soon if many of these don't 'move' quickly as investors paying mortgage payments they can't afford have to lower their prices to get units sold -- they are competing with each other. Whoever thought these would make good "flip" investments must be making that measure by some other means than I am aware of.

Flippers, to make money, must take their purchase price, their closing costs, their commissions to be paid on the resale, PLUS their desired profit to equal their sales price. Determining that profit that is acceptable is variable for each person, but consider they already held your earnest money for 1 year +. For a $400,000 purchase this would essentially come out to (approximately)

$400,000

$3000 closing costs

$27,000 commission at 6% if you sell at $450,000

--------

$430,000 -- at a $450,000 sales price you profit $20,000 -- after capital gains taxes...

if you try and sell much higher you are really pricing far above what other similar units might be selling for, especially if the developer is still selling theirs...

Again, not really an alarming figure when you consider that investors/flippers typically make up 20% of any project. I would also surmise that because Courtside was one of the first condo projects announced and people got in at a fairly low basis (less than $250/sf??), many of those people who originally were planning on living there are compelled to capitalize in this frothy market which now seems to average $350/sf or more. You would think the higher priced projects announced since Courtside (Vue, Metropolitan, 210 Trade, etc.) would be more owner-occupied oriented in nature and not as attractive to flippers and investors.

But that $350/foot price was with the developer anticipating a future value -- condos downtown that are currently selling are not selling for $350/foot -- they are selling for $200 - -$300/foot <-- the higher number only for the highest end of condos. You can still buy in all the wards for $200/foot.

[Charlotte_native]

I think the condo market downtown is GREAT. It will remain great for homeowners and those moving into the units they are buying. It is going to be real tough for those hoping to flip like folks in Miami or LV did. This is not the same market with the same foreign money coming in.

[monsoon]

Flippers, to make money, must take their purchase price, their closing costs, their commissions to be paid on the resale, PLUS their desired profit to equal their sales price. Determining that profit that is acceptable is variable for each person, but consider they already held your earnest money for 1 year +. For a $400,000 purchase this would essentially come out to (approximately)

$400,000

$3000 closing costs

$27,000 commission at 6% if you sell at $450,000

--------

$430,000 -- at a $450,000 sales price you profit $20,000 -- after capital gains taxes...

You left off property taxes which would be approximately $2800, condo fees of $3000-$6000 and the interest (or lost interest) on $400K for one year which is around $21K @ 5.5%. Of course there is a tax deduction for the interest and taxes, but your profit after the first year may be naught or very little when you add in these items.

[graydog]

Flippers, to make money, must take their purchase price, their closing costs, their commissions to be paid on the resale, PLUS their desired profit to equal their sales price. Determining that profit that is acceptable is variable for each person, but consider they already held your earnest money for 1 year +. For a $400,000 purchase this would essentially come out to (approximately)

$400,000

$3000 closing costs

$27,000 commission at 6% if you sell at $450,000

--------

$430,000 -- at a $450,000 sales price you profit $20,000 -- after capital gains taxes...

if you try and sell much higher you are really pricing far above what other similar units might be selling for, especially if the developer is still selling theirs...

But that $350/foot price was with the developer anticipating a future value -- condos downtown that are currently selling are not selling for $350/foot -- they are selling for $200 - -$300/foot <-- the higher number only for the highest end of condos. You can still buy in all the wards for $200/foot.

The 6% commission is really 3% for the buyer's agent and $1500 for a discount seller's agent. In this market all you need is an MLS # and lockbox.

[graydog]

Maybe it's because I spend too much time on UrbanPlanet, but I have not heard from anyone that I know, or anyone they know who are lining up to sell their houses to move to a small condo downtown. I am sure they exist, but I am not convinced there is that much demand for $400,000+ condos in this city. It's one thing to want a condo, its quite another to be able to afford it, and most, I presume, who have made it to the income levels to afford something like this, want a house with a yard. If not, there would not be such pressure on places in this county like Huntersville to keep building such development.

Metro I'm crushed. How could you forget me? I'm one of the empty nesters (soon) in the suburbs who bought a condo in Uptown.

[dubone]

I also think there is a large uptown market for new divorcees now wanting an opposite life to their suburban family life. Not that charming, but certainly part of the local market for uptown.

[graydog]

Hahaha....nah, if I move back, I'm moving back into my house there......or The Vue is prices do fall.

I'm loving they heat wave....the hard part is trying to convince the wife that Boston is as warm as Charlotte year round.....we'll see how long I can keep that illusion going.

It is odd though, for all the people I met in Charlotte from the northeast, I haven't met anyone here that has any interest of visiting, let alone moving, to anywhere in the south except for one lady who wants to retire to Florida.

I lived in Maine and Massachusetts for 40 years and it's always been that way. When we made the move, people thought we were strange and my wife's ex was flipping out about the kid's education. The northeast has for the most part a condescending attitude about the South. They think we talk and walk slow because we're stupid. They don't realize it's because it's so hot most of the time. I say fine, more room and less traffic for us.

[ElricSeven]

I put the same stats on the Vue vs. 210 thread a few days ago -- from my own research -- Doug seemed to have the exact same #'s but with a positive spin. He thinks this is OK while most of the rest of us think this is not healthy. I stil don't think it is.

The developer has 5, I think, actively listed (David Furman always holds some units back to sell at "current" prices when his projects are complete). That is 5 of 21 for sale.

Of the 6 that are on the MLS as "pending" or under contract, 4 are developer units. That shows how much better his units are moving that those marked up by flippers.

The more important perspective on this goes with traditional #'s for healthy markets whether it is a neighborhood or a condo complex. You want to have about half as many properties under contract as the number that are listed. Courtside, to be healthy by that model, should have 10 or 11 under contract, not 25%. And all units have not been closed on yet by their purchasers.

It is going to be a buyers market soon if many of these don't 'move' quickly as investors paying mortgage payments they can't afford have to lower their prices to get units sold -- they are competing with each other. Whoever thought these would make good "flip" investments must be making that measure by some other means than I am aware of.

Flippers, to make money, must take their purchase price, their closing costs, their commissions to be paid on the resale, PLUS their desired profit to equal their sales price. Determining that profit that is acceptable is variable for each person, but consider they already held your earnest money for 1 year +. For a $400,000 purchase this would essentially come out to (approximately)

$400,000

$3000 closing costs

$27,000 commission at 6% if you sell at $450,000

--------

$430,000 -- at a $450,000 sales price you profit $20,000 -- after capital gains taxes...

if you try and sell much higher you are really pricing far above what other similar units might be selling for, especially if the developer is still selling theirs...

But that $350/foot price was with the developer anticipating a future value -- condos downtown that are currently selling are not selling for $350/foot -- they are selling for $200 - -$300/foot <-- the higher number only for the highest end of condos. You can still buy in all the wards for $200/foot.

Most of those flipping at Courtside made a tidy profit, though, things are up about $100 per square foot (or more) over the initial contract price. Even those holdback units that BlvdCentro have put on the market are up about $80 per square foot. Also, some 2BR units at 1000 square foot have gone up about $100,000 to the low $300K range. They're selling well. Most people in Courtside seem to have done very well for themselves.

[monsoon]

Metro I'm crushed. How could you forget me? I'm one of the empty nesters (soon) in the suburbs who bought a condo in Uptown.

Was it in a 13+ story highrise?

[graydog]

Was it in a 13+ story highrise?

Townhome.

[metropolitan]

Didn't quite know where to put this, but here goes......anyone have thoughts on Nashville's Signature Tower that was featured in the Obsv today? (I think it's fair game for discussion because of this). Do you think this project will fly? (not hating, but I personally have severe doubts). Do you think this has any relevance for Charlotte...anything we should learn from this or try to emulate? Do you think the media has been Atlanta/Charlotte-baiting with their write-ups on this project?

[Charlotte_native]

Most of those flipping at Courtside made a tidy profit, though, things are up about $100 per square foot (or more) over the initial contract price. Even those holdback units that BlvdCentro have put on the market are up about $80 per square foot. Also, some 2BR units at 1000 square foot have gone up about $100,000 to the low $300K range. They're selling well. Most people in Courtside seem to have done very well for themselves.

When the first properties came on the market as resales they went fairly quickly, average time on the market one month +/-. Of the 21 on the market now, the range is 37 to 113 days. This actually isn't that bad, but it will be interesting to watch how quickly these 21 units take to get sold. Perhaps quickly -- maybe it'll take a while. This really is one of the first 'tests' of the condo flip market for center city. Also of note for future projects, though, is developers are pricing new product MUCH higher than current projects. We must have pretty heavy appreciation over the next two years for investors or flippers to make any cash for the more expensive projects.

M Street: 10 are back on the market -- none by the developer. Time on the market: 20 - 113 days with most being on for 70 - 100 days. Three others are pending.

[monsoon]

Didn't quite know where to put this, but here goes......anyone have thoughts on Nashville's Signature Tower that was featured in the Obsv today? (I think it's fair game for discussion because of this). Do you think this project will fly? (not hating, but I personally have severe doubts). Do you think this has any relevance for Charlotte...anything we should learn from this or try to emulate? Do you think the media has been Atlanta/Charlotte-baiting with their write-ups on this project?

There is a rather extensive thread in the Nashville section on the Signature tower so this is mostly off topic for this section. However here are some answers to your questions.

• Will a developer propose a 65 story, 1000+ ft. residential tower for Charlotte? - I don't think so in the near future.

• Will the signature tower be built? - Unknown, their sales of condos seem to have stalled, but like the projects here in Charlotte, the developers play their cards close to their chests so I would not count on anything until the shovels hit the ground. Not only does that go for the Signature Tower, but all of the unbuilt proposals here in Charlotte. Since we have started this forum, I can name at least a 1/2 dozens proposals that simply disappeared. (who here remembers the proposal to build a condo tower on top of the Westin parking deck)

• Does the signature tower have any relevance to Charlotte? - Beyond the odd skyscraper booster, no.

• Does the media bait people? - Why yes. This is how they sell their rags.

Oddly enough, I saw this big writeup in the printed Observer, but I does not appear to be online.

Edit: The article is now online here.

[crispin]

Townhome.

I know several older couples that have moved from the suburbs to downtown townhomes or low-rise condos. I see no reason the trend won't continue with the high-rises, as they reach completion. The only demographic group I don't see often in fourth ward are couples with children living at home.

[Charlotte_native]

I'm moving to 230 South Tryon. From what I've been told by my rep for custom work to our unit, two of the units being bought on our floor are by "older" buyers (I think she said later 40's and 50's) with no kids. One is a single lady, the other an older couple. These are larger top floor units....

[SmellyCat]

I could be wrong here, but 230 S. Tryon seems to me to be geared toward a more "mature" crowd, based on its rather upscale amenity package and just its overall look. I'm guessing average age of 40-50 might be the sweet spot.

[Charlotte_native]

I could be wrong here, but 230 S. Tryon seems to me to be geared toward a more "mature" crowd, based on its rather upscale amenity package and just its overall look. I'm guessing average age of 40-50 might be the sweet spot.

The prices aren't really any higher than other projects, but the finishes and amenities might have a different flavor. I was just pointing out the demographic of who is buying the higher-end expensive units. Someone earlier has mentioned "who was buying these expensive condos" or something like that!

The folks I've met buying the smaller units are the same demographic I've seen for the other downtown projects. mid-20's to 40's.