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Aporkalypse

Little Rock Population Estimates

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I just thought it would be interesting to post some of the figures.

LR-NLR MSA 666,687 (2006) 610,518 (2000) 9.4% growth

Pulaski 361,474 375,087 3.8% growth

Faulkner 101,524 86,014 18.0% growth

Saline 98,902 83,529 18.4% growth

Lonoke 63,196 52,828 19.6% growth

Grant 17,486 16,464 6.2% growth

Perry 10,492 10,209 2.8% growth

It's not worth listing all of the cities but here are some core city figures:

Little Rock 189,133 183,133 3.3% growth

NLR 59,777 60,433 1.1% decline

Conway 53,079 43,167 23% growth

Maumelle grew by 46.2% to 15,542 and Cabot by 41% to 21,575. 5 cities in Saline county including Benton and Bryant (36.6%) grew by more than 25%.

Five of the top ten fastest growing cities in Arkansas were in the LR MSA, the other 5 were all in NWA.

If you look at the core city of Little Rock, there are a couple of very important things to note -

1) The number of single family housing permits is higher than it has been in the last 20 years while there is a major decline in multifamily construction, though this is erratic from year to year. This is a very solid finding for a core city.

2) The core city of LR is growing by roughly 1000/year. While this isn't much by NWA or suburban Central Ark standards it bucks the trend we're seeing in cities like Tulsa, Jackson, Shreveport, Birmingham, Springfield, etc which are all losing population. I consider it a healthy sign.

3) Pulaski Co as a whole seems to be growing again, fueled largely by Maumelle but also by Sherwood and Little Rock

I think these are all signs that despite vibrant suburban growth healthy core metro growth is occurring as well.

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I just thought it would be interesting to post some of the figures.

LR-NLR MSA 666,687 (2006) 610,518 (2000) 9.4% growth

Pulaski 361,474 375,087 3.8% growth

Faulkner 101,524 86,014 18.0% growth

Saline 98,902 83,529 18.4% growth

Lonoke 63,196 52,828 19.6% growth

Grant 17,486 16,464 6.2% growth

Perry 10,492 10,209 2.8% growth

It's not worth listing all of the cities but here are some core city figures:

Little Rock 189,133 183,133 3.3% growth

NLR 59,777 60,433 1.1% decline

Conway 53,079 43,167 23% growth

Maumelle grew by 46.2% to 15,542 and Cabot by 41% to 21,575. 5 cities in Saline county including Benton and Bryant (36.6%) grew by more than 25%.

Five of the top ten fastest growing cities in Arkansas were in the LR MSA, the other 5 were all in NWA.

If you look at the core city of Little Rock, there are a couple of very important things to note -

1) The number of single family housing permits is higher than it has been in the last 20 years while there is a major decline in multifamily construction, though this is erratic from year to year. This is a very solid finding for a core city.

2) The core city of LR is growing by roughly 1000/year. While this isn't much by NWA or suburban Central Ark standards it bucks the trend we're seeing in cities like Tulsa, Jackson, Shreveport, Birmingham, Springfield, etc which are all losing population. I consider it a healthy sign.

3) Pulaski Co as a whole seems to be growing again, fueled largely by Maumelle but also by Sherwood and Little Rock

I think these are all signs that despite vibrant suburban growth healthy core metro growth is occurring as well.

If you look at the figures for NLR you will see over the past year or so it is gaining population.

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If you look at the figures for NLR you will see over the past year or so it is gaining population.

NLR has been really hemmed in by other cities. Camp Robinson, and the River and most residents that like the area can find new homes in Sherwood or Maumelle. I would wager the new north belt addition and area west of Scott will grow and this will let NLR have a slight population gain.

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NLR has been really hemmed in by other cities. Camp Robinson, and the River and most residents that like the area can find new homes in Sherwood or Maumelle. I would wager the new north belt addition and area west of Scott will grow and this will let NLR have a slight population gain.

I have friends that just built a new house in the Scott area. That's where NLR major population growth, if any will occur, along with possible growth downtown and in the area near Maumelle where multi-unit housing is being built.

I agree with Aporkalypse that it is a healthy sign that the city of LR is still seeing population gain while its suburbs are growing as well. I just saw a report that said that Shreveport's pop. has gone under 200,000.

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I have friends that just built a new house in the Scott area. That's where NLR major population growth, if any will occur, along with possible growth downtown and in the area near Maumelle where multi-unit housing is being built.

I agree with Aporkalypse that it is a healthy sign that the city of LR is still seeing population gain while its suburbs are growing as well. I just saw a report that said that Shreveport's pop. has gone under 200,000.

That's too bad about Shreveport retracting. Their MSA is already significantly smaller the Little Rock's (200,000 plus less than...).

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I just thought it would be interesting to post some of the figures.

LR-NLR MSA 666,687 (2006) 610,518 (2000) 9.4% growth

Pulaski 361,474 375,087 3.8% growth

Faulkner 101,524 86,014 18.0% growth

Saline 98,902 83,529 18.4% growth

Lonoke 63,196 52,828 19.6% growth

Grant 17,486 16,464 6.2% growth

Perry 10,492 10,209 2.8% growth

It's not worth listing all of the cities but here are some core city figures:

Little Rock 189,133 183,133 3.3% growth

NLR 59,777 60,433 1.1% decline

Conway 53,079 43,167 23% growth

Maumelle grew by 46.2% to 15,542 and Cabot by 41% to 21,575. 5 cities in Saline county including Benton and Bryant (36.6%) grew by more than 25%.

Five of the top ten fastest growing cities in Arkansas were in the LR MSA, the other 5 were all in NWA.

If you look at the core city of Little Rock, there are a couple of very important things to note -

1) The number of single family housing permits is higher than it has been in the last 20 years while there is a major decline in multifamily construction, though this is erratic from year to year. This is a very solid finding for a core city.

2) The core city of LR is growing by roughly 1000/year. While this isn't much by NWA or suburban Central Ark standards it bucks the trend we're seeing in cities like Tulsa, Jackson, Shreveport, Birmingham, Springfield, etc which are all losing population. I consider it a healthy sign.

3) Pulaski Co as a whole seems to be growing again, fueled largely by Maumelle but also by Sherwood and Little Rock

I think these are all signs that despite vibrant suburban growth healthy core metro growth is occurring as well.

Great news. This repsresents solid growth for a mature market. There is the opportunity for this to accelerate as Little Rock is really coming into its own as a respectable urban center; I just hope the spike in violent crime (due to jail overcrowding principally), doesn't take the wind out of the sails.

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Great news. This repsresents solid growth for a mature market. There is the opportunity for this to accelerate as Little Rock is really coming into its own as a respectable urban center; I just hope the spike in violent crime (due to jail overcrowding principally), doesn't take the wind out of the sails.

Anyone want to post the population growth rate between 1995 to 2005 for 18 -35 year old males in the Greater Little Rock Metro?

The spike in the LR murder rate is undeniable. Before anyone attempts to suggest that i think otherwise, you're nuts.

Those of you who know Jim Lynch, know that when there is controversy in local government, he is usually there to help stir the pot. He recently showed me a graph comparing the project tax revenue growth to the number of new jail beds that would be added, should Buddy Villines get his 1/4 cent sales tax increase passed, Sept 12, . While I will attempt to validate what he showed me from other sources, there are existing beds (i think 200+) that are not being used. According to Jim, the County (Buddy) removed these beds in 2004 because there wasn't enough revenue to house the inmates and pay for security. Jim supports an 1/8 cent sales tax increase that would raise an additional 9 million dollars per year for the County Jails budget. He believes this will fund all the existing beds and allow for some additional beds. He also argues for more money for prevention. The proposed 1/4 cent sales tax amounts to a 100 percent increase in the current budget.

Here's Max's recent editorial.

http://arktimes.com/Articles/ArticleViewer...c8-52de5b5c804d

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Anyone want to post the population growth rate between 1995 to 2005 for 18 -35 year old males in the Greater Little Rock Metro?

The spike in the LR murder rate is undeniable. Before anyone attempts to suggest that i think otherwise, you're nuts.

Those of you who know Jim Lynch, know that when there is controversy in local government, he is usually there to help stir the pot. He recently showed me a graph comparing the project tax revenue growth to the number of new jail beds that would be added, should Buddy Villines get his 1/4 cent sales tax increase passed, Sept 12, . While I will attempt to validate what he showed me from other sources, there are existing beds (i think 200+) that are not being used. According to Jim, the County (Buddy) removed these beds in 2004 because there wasn't enough revenue to house the inmates and pay for security. Jim supports an 1/8 cent sales tax increase that would raise an additional 9 million dollars per year for the County Jails budget. He believes this will fund all the existing beds and allow for some additional beds. He also argues for more money for prevention. The proposed 1/4 cent sales tax amounts to a 100 percent increase in the current budget.

Here's Max's recent editorial.

http://arktimes.com/Articles/ArticleViewer...c8-52de5b5c804d

Regardless of the intricacies of that, the long and short of it is that Little Rock's recent spike is due to problems accommodating people who should be in jail, not some shift in the general makeup or demographic of a more violent populace.

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That's too bad about Shreveport retracting. Their MSA is already significantly smaller the Little Rock's (200,000 plus less than...).

The metro area of Shreveport is smaller than Little Rock's but metro area. But Shreveport city is bigger than Little Rock, I don't believe the Little Rock has ever had a population greater than 200,000. Little Rock is a small city, smaller than Shreveport and Jackson.

2000 population for cities:

Shreveport: 200,145

Jackson: 184,133

Little Rock: 183,133

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The metro area of Shreveport is smaller than Little Rock's but metro area. But Shreveport city is bigger than Little Rock, I don't believe the Little Rock has ever had a population greater than 200,000. Little Rock is a small city, smaller than Shreveport and Jackson.

2000 population for cities:

Shreveport: 200,145

Jackson: 184,133

Little Rock: 183,133

MSA is a MUCH better barometer of a city's effective size. If you want to compare city boundary population numbers, then you'd have to say that Atlanta is smaller than Memphis and Oklahoma City. But we all know that is not in fact representative of reality. In this regard, Little Rock is measurably larger than both Shreveport and Jackson - much more significant than the city population numbers you list above - which are, ironically, inverted in order of MSA.

2004 estimates:

Little Rock: 636,636

Jackson: 517,275

Shreveport: 381,817

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True, there are a number of cities that don't look very big if you look just at the city proper numbers in comparison to the mtero. Isn't St Louis another example of this as well?

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MSA is a MUCH better barometer of a city's effective size. If you want to compare city boundary population numbers, then you'd have to say that Atlanta is smaller than Memphis and Oklahoma City. But we all know that is not in fact representative of reality. In this regard, Little Rock is measurably larger than both Shreveport and Jackson - much more significant than the city population numbers you list above - which are, ironically, inverted in order of MSA.

2004 estimates:

Little Rock: 636,636

Jackson: 517,275

Shreveport: 381,817

I agree with what you said except your shreveport numbers I think are off. In 2000 Shreveport had a metro area of 397,000 and in 2005 they are just over 400,000. But some metro areas can be misleading. Atlanta includes 85 miles outside of their city limit as part of their metro area. There is 50 miles between Dallas and Fort Worth for that metro area. Just some examples, in that case New Orelans could include the Baton Rouge and Houma Metro areas to have a combined metro population of 2.3 million b/c both of these metro areas are less than a hour away but New Orelans doesn't do this. Some metro areas can be misleading is all i'm saying.

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I agree with what you said except your shreveport numbers I think are off. In 2000 Shreveport had a metro area of 397,000 and in 2005 they are just over 400,000. But some metro areas can be misleading. Atlanta includes 85 miles outside of their city limit as part of their metro area. There is 50 miles between Dallas and Fort Worth for that metro area. Just some examples, in that case New Orelans could include the Baton Rouge and Houma Metro areas to have a combined metro population of 2.3 million b/c both of these metro areas are less than a hour away but New Orelans doesn't do this. Some metro areas can be misleading is all i'm saying.

The number could be wrong, but I got it from the U.S. Census Bureau regarding 2004 MSA estimates. It is table 1 from the following link:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/estim...ages_final.html

There is a set method by which MSA boundaries are set, and it has to do with the interconnectivity of the peripheral areas with the core city. In Atlanta's case, it extends out 85 miles because a significant number of people who live within that range work in Atlanta. In New Orleans case, Baton Rouge is its own destination and even though it is closer than the extent of Atlanta's MSA, New Orleans doesn't have the gravity to draw a significant amount of Baton Rouge's population on a daily basis to consider them interrelated on a signficant level. How this was derived in the case of DFW, I'm unsure. A reciprocal example is Raleigh-Durham, which used to be one MSA but was split because they became less dependent on each other on a statistical basis.

Anyway, I wasn't trying to belittle Shreveport in any way. I like Shreveport/Bossier and have extended family that lives there. As such, per my original comment, I was disappointed to see that the city population numbers may be retracting.

Also, Shreveport seems to have much more going on than Jackson - though admittedly I'm not as informed on Jackson as Shreveport. Shreveport also gives a great impression with its masculine skyline. Jackson really has no skyline, at least not one that is representative of its size. Des Moines has us all beat in that regard!

Edited by Architect

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I agree with what you said except your shreveport numbers I think are off. In 2000 Shreveport had a metro area of 397,000 and in 2005 they are just over 400,000. But some metro areas can be misleading. Atlanta includes 85 miles outside of their city limit as part of their metro area. There is 50 miles between Dallas and Fort Worth for that metro area. Just some examples, in that case New Orelans could include the Baton Rouge and Houma Metro areas to have a combined metro population of 2.3 million b/c both of these metro areas are less than a hour away but New Orelans doesn't do this. Some metro areas can be misleading is all i'm saying.

The counties that get included in an MSA don't rely on distances; they rely on commuter rates. For a county to get included in an MSA, at least 25% of its population must commute into the core county for employment, OR a more outlying county must have at least 25% of its population commute into one of the counties already having 25% of its population commuting into the core county. It can get a little confusing for the "secondary" MSA counties as I like to call them. So many people residing in those counties that are 80 miles outside of Atlanta are traveling not into Fulton County to work, but into an adjoining county that already has an economic connection with Fulton County. So this isn't something that "Atlanta does" to bolster its numbers; the Census Bureau makes the rules and applies them the same way to every metro area.

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The number could be wrong, but I got it from the U.S. Census Bureau regarding 2004 MSA estimates. It is table 1 from the following link:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/estim...ages_final.html

There is a set method by which MSA boundaries are set, and it has to do with the interconnectivity of the peripheral areas with the core city. In Atlanta's case, it extends out 85 miles because a significant number of people who live within that range work in Atlanta. In New Orleans case, Baton Rouge is its own destination and even though it is closer than the extent of Atlanta's MSA, New Orleans doesn't have the gravity to draw a significant amount of Baton Rouge's population on a daily basis to consider them interrelated on a signficant level. How this was derived in the case of DFW, I'm unsure. A reciprocal example is Raleigh-Durham, which used to be one MSA but was split because they became less dependent on each other on a statistical basis.

Anyway, I wasn't trying to belittle Shreveport in any way. I like Shreveport/Bossier and have extended family that lives there. As such, per my original comment, I was disappointed to see that the city population numbers may be retracting.

Also, Shreveport seems to have much more going on than Jackson - though admittedly I'm not as informed on Jackson as Shreveport. Shreveport also gives a great impression with its masculine skyline. Jackson really has no skyline, at least not one that is representative of its size. Des Moines has us all beat in that regard!

You're right about Jackson having no skyline to speak of. I was suprised when I drove through Jackson for the first time and stopped to get gas and I was downtown. No skyscrapers to let you know that you were in downtown. For its size, Little Rock has an impressive skyline, but like you said Des Moines has us beat. Another city that's about the size of Little Rock with a less than impressive skyline is Huntsville, AL even though it is better than Jackson's.

Edited by theman

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You're right about Jackson having no skyline to speak of. I was suprised when I drove through Jackson for the first time and stopped to get gas and I was downtown. No skyscrapers to let you know that you were in downtown. For its size, Little Rock has an impressive skyline, but like you said Des Moines has us beat. Another city that's about the size of Little Rock with a less than impressive skyline is Huntsville, AL even though it is better than Jackson's.

Again, back to MSA, Huntsville is just more than half the size of Little Rock, so to me its no surprise that its skyline is not impressive. Huntsville is more the size of Springfield, MO (which also has no skyline). Mobile is a better comparison, and there is - ironically - a sizeable high-rise currently under construction there that brings it more on par.

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Anyone want to post the population growth rate between 1995 to 2005 for 18 -35 year old males in the Greater Little Rock Metro?

The spike in the LR murder rate is undeniable. Before anyone attempts to suggest that i think otherwise, you're nuts.

Those of you who know Jim Lynch, know that when there is controversy in local government, he is usually there to help stir the pot. He recently showed me a graph comparing the project tax revenue growth to the number of new jail beds that would be added, should Buddy Villines get his 1/4 cent sales tax increase passed, Sept 12, . While I will attempt to validate what he showed me from other sources, there are existing beds (i think 200+) that are not being used. According to Jim, the County (Buddy) removed these beds in 2004 because there wasn't enough revenue to house the inmates and pay for security. Jim supports an 1/8 cent sales tax increase that would raise an additional 9 million dollars per year for the County Jails budget. He believes this will fund all the existing beds and allow for some additional beds. He also argues for more money for prevention. The proposed 1/4 cent sales tax amounts to a 100 percent increase in the current budget.

Here's Max's recent editorial.

http://arktimes.com/Articles/ArticleViewer...c8-52de5b5c804d

Jim Lynch is an intelligent man, no doubt, but he has made a career of criticizing virtually every move the city makes and never offering any real solutions. I listen to what he has to say but I frequently find much wisdom in it.

The crime upsurge is a very serious issue and I think it needs to be addressed in a very serious way. Furthermore, I think that the mayoral candidate who makes crime THE most important issue in the race will run away with it. Right now that seems to be Mark Stodola but we'll see how things work out.

I will still be a Dallas resident and unable to vote but I will have to pay the taxes when I return if the jail tax passes. I think Villines did a poor job of prioritizing the budget and the fact that we closed jail beds for other less essential projects make me angry. I have friends in the Ark State Police that insist that the jail bed problem is serious enough that even reopening the closed beds is inadequate, that the same thing was occurring before the budget cuts but that the closures just worsened the situation. The jail was still closed quite often when the additional beds were open.

Almost all of LR's actual growth is in far west LR, far southwest LR/Otter Creek, and to a lesser degree downtown. All of these areas are relatively insulated from crime but growth there can be offset by rapid flight out of the inner city and abandonment of dwellings if crime becomes serious enough.

The LR crime equation is very simple to solve, crack = crime. Virtually every murder in LR and NLR this year was drug-related. Drug-related criminals are the most common beneficiaries of the current "catch and release" policy at the county jail. I, for one, do think more jail beds will help. I also think we need more cops on the streets, more stations, and we need to pay better. Dallas PD officers make $10,000 more a year despite equivalent cost of living. We need to offer salaries sufficient to attract good officers from adjacent metros and to help us fill all of our open positions.

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True, there are a number of cities that don't look very big if you look just at the city proper numbers in comparison to the mtero. Isn't St Louis another example of this as well?

A few years ago Little Rock was bigger than Orlando and Salt Lake City, for example. I think both are now larger but not markedly so.

St Louis, Atlanta, and Miami all have small city populations relative to the significance of their metros, smaller than Austin or even El Paso.

I agree MSAs are the best way to look at metros but they can be misleading. I still think LR's MSA underestimates its significance as counties like Jefferson, Garland, White, and Conway probably integrate as much or more with the metro than Perry and Grant, which are included. There are a million people within 50 miles of downtown LR and this is a number potential employers and retail are probably more interested in.

Shreveport's MSA obviously underrepresents it.

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Has any annexation occured in Little Rock since the 2000 census?

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Again, back to MSA, Huntsville is just more than half the size of Little Rock, so to me its no surprise that its skyline is not impressive. Huntsville is more the size of Springfield, MO (which also has no skyline). Mobile is a better comparison, and there is - ironically - a sizeable high-rise currently under construction there that brings it more on par.

I think a lot more goes into whether a city has a skyline or not than MSA. Business climate, willing developers, tax incentives and other things are just as important or more important. Maybe Huntsville hasn't had visionaries like Doyle Rodgers who built the Stephens Building, Peabody Hotel and the convention center like Little Rock has. Little Rock is the financial center of Arkansas, so the banks built skyscrapers here where the financial center in Alabama is in Birmingham.

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A few years ago Little Rock was bigger than Orlando and Salt Lake City, for example. I think both are now larger but not markedly so.

St Louis, Atlanta, and Miami all have small city populations relative to the significance of their metros, smaller than Austin or even El Paso.

I agree MSAs are the best way to look at metros but they can be misleading. I still think LR's MSA underestimates its significance as counties like Jefferson, Garland, White, and Conway probably integrate as much or more with the metro than Perry and Grant, which are included. There are a million people within 50 miles of downtown LR and this is a number potential employers and retail are probably more interested in.

Shreveport's MSA obviously underrepresents it.

The Little Rock Metro Alliance uses an 11 county area with about 1 million people to promote to business prospects. I think that some of the counties you mentioned, Jefferson, Garland and White, are part of the alliance.

I actually was suprised that While county wasn't included in Little Rock's MSA during the last census. I guess 25% of workers are not commuting to Pulaski or any of the other counties in the MSA.

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The Little Rock Metro Alliance uses an 11 county area with about 1 million people to promote to business prospects. I think that some of the counties you mentioned, Jefferson, Garland and White, are part of the alliance.

I actually was suprised that While county wasn't included in Little Rock's MSA during the last census. I guess 25% of workers are not commuting to Pulaski or any of the other counties in the MSA.

I guess White Co is more self-sufficient but with growth along 67/167 stringing out it's a matter of time before Beebe and Searcy are connected with Cabot and the NE LR suburbs.

I was more surprised about Conway Co. Morrilton lost a lot of jobs and Conway is so close, I thought for sure they'd be included.

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I guess White Co is more self-sufficient but with growth along 67/167 stringing out it's a matter of time before Beebe and Searcy are connected with Cabot and the NE LR suburbs.

I was more surprised about Conway Co. Morrilton lost a lot of jobs and Conway is so close, I thought for sure they'd be included.

It was originally anticipated by Metroplan that Conway county would be added to Little Rock's MSA when Perry and Grant were added (so that it would have been 7 counties instead of 6). Apparently, the data just barely missed. There was some discussion that it was held back in anticpation of Conway getting its own MSA, but I find that highly unlikely.

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I think a lot more goes into whether a city has a skyline or not than MSA. Business climate, willing developers, tax incentives and other things are just as important or more important. Maybe Huntsville hasn't had visionaries like Doyle Rodgers who built the Stephens Building, Peabody Hotel and the convention center like Little Rock has. Little Rock is the financial center of Arkansas, so the banks built skyscrapers here where the financial center in Alabama is in Birmingham.

the man - You make a valid point about other issues being significant factors, and certainly those come into play. Again however, Mobile is not the financial center of Alabama, but its size (population) and skyline are much more commensurate with Little Rock.

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It was originally anticipated by Metroplan that Conway county would be added to Little Rock's MSA when Perry and Grant were added (so that it would have been 7 counties instead of 6). Apparently, the data just barely missed. There was some discussion that it was held back in anticpation of Conway getting its own MSA, but I find that highly unlikely.

It seems to me Faulkner and Pulaski Co are too interdependent to be considerered separately and are only growing closer. Faulkner doesn't want to be separate because its association with LR helps pull jobs into the area.

Just for the hell of it, here are the 2005 population estimates for satellite counties outside the MSA that are reasonable candidates to join it:

Conway 20,739

Jefferson 81,700

Garland 93,550

White 71,332

Total: 267,321

Garland and White Counties are growing significantly and are moving towards Little Rock. Conway Co is growing very slowly without much movement and Jefferson County is dropping population.

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