Little Rock Population Estimates

[LIT uPP]

Metroplan just released its "Metrotrends 2014 Demographic Review and Outlook," and the picture it paints for the Little Rock area is uninspiring, if not disheartening. The MSA's rate of population growth has slowed to a level not seen since the 1980s. All counties in the MSA are slowing. Metroplan estimates that 728,175 people now live in the LR/NLR/Conway MSA, an increase of only about 7,000 from last year. There is little chance we reach 800,000 by 2020. 750,000 would be a more reasonable target.

While Little Rock and North Little Rock actually grew faster between 2010-2014 than they did between 2000-2010, they still lagged far behind several suburban cities in overall growth rate. Bryant is by far the fastest growing city in the MSA with a 3.7% annual growth rate between 2010 and 2014. In fact, Saline County was the fastest growing county at a 2.1% annual rate, while Faulkner County was second with 1.7% - a far cry from its 2.8% annual rate between 2000 and 2010.

The report notes that one of the reasons for slowing growth is the lack of jobs in the area. Recently, Arkansas was ranked in the bottom five for job growth between 2010 and 2014. Unfortunately, there don't appear to be any prospects for reversing the trend in the near future.

The full report can be found at the following link:

http://www.metroplan.org/files/53/2014Demo.pdf

[Architect]

I saw that as well...a bit disheartening.  I had assumed we would continue the momentum...perhaps this is just a bit of hangover from the recession.

 

In essence, the report noted that the annual growth rate has slowed from an average of 1.4%/year in 2000-2010 to 1.1% for 2010-2014.  Not terrible, but not going in the right direction.

 

I'll admit that I'm of the opinion that our fractured, multiple municipalities is a detriment to growth, and always favored a combined city/county government for Pulaski County (much like Louisville and Nashville have done).  This would raise the profile by a much larger population, create a more efficient government/municipal services, and align and focus marketing/promotions of one entity rather than competing municipalities.  It's too bad that Warren Stephens didn't get any traction with his public proposals for this about ten years ago.

[LIT uPP]

I tend to agree with the idea of countywide consolidation.  That would boost our population to a more attention-grabbing level for site selection companies, and it would hopefully streamline services and finances.  However, we also need to consider steps to make the Little Rock metro a much more attractive business environment for companies looking to relocate or expand.  Several years ago, Fidelity Information Services considered moving its corporate headquarters to Little Rock from California, given its existing employee base here.  Ultimately, they chose Jacksonville, Florida, in large part because it has no state income tax.  This is just one example that comes to mind, but it illustrates the need to be more attractive to out-of-state business.  Of course, we should also focus on improving the environment  for local start-ups to encourage entrepreneurial ventures.

 

I believe we simply don’t compare well with the nation’s fast-growing cities.  In fact, these days we are competing with the world.  You mention Nashville, which is currently experiencing explosive growth.  Music and tourism are major drivers in their economy, but those industries are far from the only ones.  Nashville is today a major hub for the health care industry.  Several companies (like Nissan) have relocated their headquarters to the region to take advantage of lower taxes and financial incentives.  Construction cranes are everywhere.  People move there from all parts of the country and even the world to fill jobs.  Toss in scenic beauty, a temperate climate, and friendly people, and one can understand why the region is attracting so many newcomers.  I highlight Nashville, because I’ve been there several times and am amazed at all the activity.

 

I was born in Little Rock and have lived here most of my life.  It frustrates me to see an area with such potential struggle to grow, while metros in surrounding states surge in economic and population growth.  I don’t take for granted the positives that have occurred here over the last 10-15 years, but we really could be doing so much better.  If we don’t improve our competitiveness, we will fall further behind our fast-growing neighbors.

[Architect]

I tend to agree with the idea of countywide consolidation.  That would boost our population to a more attention-grabbing level for site selection companies, and it would hopefully streamline services and finances.  However, we also need to consider steps to make the Little Rock metro a much more attractive business environment for companies looking to relocate or expand.  Several years ago, Fidelity Information Services considered moving its corporate headquarters to Little Rock from California, given its existing employee base here.  Ultimately, they chose Jacksonville, Florida, in large part because it has no state income tax.  This is just one example that comes to mind, but it illustrates the need to be more attractive to out-of-state business.  Of course, we should also focus on improving the environment  for local start-ups to encourage entrepreneurial ventures.

 

I believe we simply don’t compare well with the nation’s fast-growing cities.  In fact, these days we are competing with the world.  You mention Nashville, which is currently experiencing explosive growth.  Music and tourism are major drivers in their economy, but those industries are far from the only ones.  Nashville is today a major hub for the health care industry.  Several companies (like Nissan) have relocated their headquarters to the region to take advantage of lower taxes and financial incentives.  Construction cranes are everywhere.  People move there from all parts of the country and even the world to fill jobs.  Toss in scenic beauty, a temperate climate, and friendly people, and one can understand why the region is attracting so many newcomers.  I highlight Nashville, because I’ve been there several times and am amazed at all the activity.

 

I was born in Little Rock and have lived here most of my life.  It frustrates me to see an area with such potential struggle to grow, while metros in surrounding states surge in economic and population growth.  I don’t take for granted the positives that have occurred here over the last 10-15 years, but we really could be doing so much better.  If we don’t improve our competitiveness, we will fall further behind our fast-growing neighbors.

 

I completely agree with your assessment.  My only comment is that Nashville wasn't originally a growth spot either...it was a sleepy metro about the size of LR in the early 1980's.  The challenge, or perhaps question is, why can't Little Rock duplicate a similar pro-growth strategy in planning for the future?

[skirby]

The Urban Institute shows a population  for the LR area to be right at 915,000 by 2030.

[Architect]

The Urban Institute shows a population  for the LR area to be right at 915,000 by 2030.

 

Sounds about right.  The BizJournal link further up in this thread projected One Million by ±2034.

[bigbank10x]

Has the city proper of Little Rock reached 200K yet?

[ArkansasTraveler]

Has the city proper of Little Rock reached 200K yet?

 

Most recent Census Bureau estimate — from 2013 — has the population at 197,357.

[Architect]

The Census Bureau has released official MSA population estimates for 2014, per this City Wire article:

 

http://www.thecitywire.com/node/36954#.VRVYBCmesji

 

Summary of Arkansas MSA's (in order):

 

Little Rock - North Little Rock - Conway
April 2010: 699,757
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 729,135
+29,378
up 4.19%

 

Northwest Arkansas

April 2010: 463,204
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 501,653
+38,449
up 8.3%

 

Fort Smith metro

April 2010: 280,467
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 279,592
-875
down 0.31%

 

Texarkana metro

April 2010: 149,198
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 149,235
+37
up 0.02%

 

Jonesboro
April 2010: 121,026
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 126,764
+5,738
up 4.74%

 

Hot Springs metro
April 2010: 96,024
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 97,322
+1,298
up 1.35%

 

Memphis-West Memphis
April 2010: 1,324,829
July 1, 2014 (estimate): 1,343,230
+18,401
up 1.38%

[LR_Nomad]

That is solid growth for NWA and not too bad for Little Rock.  I was just looking at the numbers this morning, noticed the LR-NLR CSA is above 900k, I put the link below to all the data.

 

https://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2014/index.html

[Architect]

That is solid growth for NWA and not too bad for Little Rock.  I was just looking at the numbers this morning, noticed the LR-NLR CSA is above 900k, I put the link below to all the data.

 

https://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2014/index.html

 

People talk about the growth of NWA all the time in terms of percentage, which is impressive.  But the reality of the numbers is that they've only added 9,000 more people than Little Rock the past four years.  I think oftentimes people forget that the LR MSA is also growing.

 

p.s.  Anything could change, but Memphis has been so nearly stagnant the past 2 decades that I could see both LR and NWA passing it by 2050.

[Walls99]

The Census Bureau has released official MSA population estimates for 2014, per this City Wire article:

 

http://www.thecitywire.com/node/36954#.VRVYBCmesji

 

Summary of Arkansas MSA's (in order):

 

Little Rock - North Little Rock - ConwayApril 2010: 699,757July 1, 2014 (estimate): 729,135+29,378up 4.19%

 

Northwest Arkansas

April 2010: 463,204

July 1, 2014 (estimate): 501,653

+38,449

up 8.3%

 

Fort Smith metro

April 2010: 280,467July 1, 2014 (estimate): 279,592-875down 0.31%

 

Texarkana metro

April 2010: 149,198July 1, 2014 (estimate): 149,235+37up 0.02%

 

Jonesboro

April 2010: 121,026

July 1, 2014 (estimate): 126,764

+5,738

up 4.74%

 

Hot Springs metroApril 2010: 96,024July 1, 2014 (estimate): 97,322+1,298up 1.35%

 

Memphis-West Memphis

April 2010: 1,324,829

July 1, 2014 (estimate): 1,343,230

+18,401

up 1.38%

Have they released the individual city estimates yet? I would be interested to see whether or not Little Rock proper has reached the 200,000+ mark yet.

[Architect]

Have they released the individual city estimates yet? I would be interested to see whether or not Little Rock proper has reached the 200,000+ mark yet.

 

The city population estimate for 2013 was 197,357 (it was 193,524 in 2010).  For 2014, it looks like the Census Bureau has only gotten down to the County level.  It lists Pulaski as 392,702 for 2014, an increase of ±1,200 over 2013.  Whether or not that all went to Little Rock, who knows until those estimates are released.  I think the big question is, by the 2020 census, will Little Rock reach 200,000 (most certainly), will Pulaski exceed 400,000 (most certainly), and will the entire MSA exceed 800,000 (seems less likely).

[skirby]

Last week there was an article on the population growth in the LR area. I believe it was using Metroplan estimates and it was saying certain cities might consider new counts to receive increase state turn back funds. It didn't list all the cities in the area but it did say the population of LR being 199,546(?). I not for sure of the 46 but the other numbers are correct. When I was reading the article I thought there would be a list on the Metroplan website but nothing has turned up yet.   Anyway the 200,000 mark should be passed sometime this year.

[skirby]

Last week there was an article on the population growth in the LR area. I believe it was using Metroplan estimates and it was saying certain cities might consider new counts to receive increase state turn back funds. It didn't list all the cities in the area but it did say the population of LR being 199,546(?). I not for sure of the 46 but the other numbers are correct. When I was reading the article I thought there would be a list on the Metroplan website but nothing has turned up yet.   Anyway the 200,000 mark should be passed sometime this year.

The Census Bureau has release estimates for 2014. As of July 1, 2014:

 

Little Rock  197,706

North Little Rock  66,810

Conway  64,490

[LRU1967]

Richard Mason's article, in today's (Sunday) Democrat-Gazette should be read by all proponents of growth at any cost.

[adman0468]

2015 estimates for central Arkansas: 

A few points:

Little Rock is just a few people away from 200,000.

Conway will soon surpass NLR.

We are doing much better than Shreveport and Jackson, which are declining in population (in fact, I think our population has now surpassed Shreveport's)

 

http://metroplan.org/files/53/DemographicReview2015.pdf

[LR_Nomad]

Based on that it seems that LR will easily surpass 200,000 by the end of 2015, I would think.

[skirby]

2015 estimates for central Arkansas: 

A few points:

Little Rock is just a few people away from 200,000.

Conway will soon surpass NLR.

We are doing much better than Shreveport and Jackson, which are declining in population (in fact, I think our population has now surpassed Shreveport's)

 

http://metroplan.org/files/53/DemographicReview2015.pdf

If growth continues as it has in the past few years then I see NLR passing the 70k mark before Conway.  NLR has finally passed its 1980 population of 64K+ before going down below 60K in the early 2000s.

[Architect]

Based on that it seems that LR will easily surpass 200,000 by the end of 2015, I would think.

Surprisingly robust growth in the core city...it is clearly accelerating from the past decade, opposite in fact from a slight slowdown in growth of the aggregate metro between this decade and the last.

[Arkanzin]

That was a great read.  Thanks for the link!