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Little Rock Population Estimates

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Well, the person arguing in favor of Shreveport on here has since been banned due to his own idiocies, so you can all breathe easier knowing you won't have to pummel him to death. :D

Anyway, Shreveport is losing population, and much faster than previously thought. The way it now looks, by the 2010 or 2020 Census, Little Rock's city population very well could surpass Shreveport's. Of course being the homer that I am, I hate to see that happen. Not because I hate to see Little Rock grow (I really like that area,) but because I hate to see my city LOSE population.

I believe the one glimmer of hope that metro SBC has is that Bossier Parish and DeSoto Parish have both grown considerably, in particular Bossier City which is now up over 60,000 in population. My metro certainly can't rely on big brother Shreveport anymore... Bossier City is taking over, unless Shreveport can reverse the current trend.

Great topic, guys, and it's great to see the city of Little Rock growing rather than just the metro or the suburbs alone.

Edited by SBCmetroguy

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Well, the person arguing in favor of Shreveport on here has since been banned due to his own idiocies, so you can all breathe easier knowing you won't have to pummel him to death. :D

Anyway, Shreveport is losing population, and much faster than previously thought. The way it now looks, by the 2010 or 2020 Census, Little Rock's city population very well could surpass Shreveport's. Of course being the homer that I am, I hate to see that happen. Not because I hate to see Little Rock grow (I really like that area,) but because I hate to see my city LOSE population.

I believe the one glimmer of hope that metro SBC has is that Bossier Parish and DeSoto Parish have both grown considerably, in particular Bossier City which is now up over 60,000 in population. My metro certainly can't rely on big brother Shreveport anymore... Bossier City is taking over, unless Shreveport can reverse the current trend.

Great topic, guys, and it's great to see the city of Little Rock growing rather than just the metro or the suburbs alone.

I think its totally cool that you're here in support of your home city! Hey...that's who this board is for right? Anyway, I sure hope Shreveport sorts it out. The dynamics there are different than here in that Little Rock is and has always been seen as the dominant, preferential, more upscale city to live in (not to dog NLR, which is quite nice in its own right) - though they are both considered the core cities.

Bossier City has clearly become THE place to live in the metro area, but I would love to hear you elaborate on the dynamics in the area leading to that trend. It might give us some insight here. My take on it is this: In S-B, it seems that Bossier is seen as a "reprieve" from Shreveport - a different place, a destination for those wanting to "move out" further - the burbs to some extent. I may not have the take on S-B spot on, but regarldess, in LR-NLR's case, I think the general populace sees these two cities as more-or-less one in the same basket (though they are different), and to "move out" here means Maumelle, Benton, Bryant, Cabot, Conway, etc. In this market, Little Rock is growing slightly, NLR is actually declining, and the suburban communities are growing rapidly.

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It seems to me Faulkner and Pulaski Co are too interdependent to be considerered separately and are only growing closer. Faulkner doesn't want to be separate because its association with LR helps pull jobs into the area.

Just for the hell of it, here are the 2005 population estimates for satellite counties outside the MSA that are reasonable candidates to join it:

Conway 20,739

Jefferson 81,700

Garland 93,550

White 71,332

Total: 267,321

Garland and White Counties are growing significantly and are moving towards Little Rock. Conway Co is growing very slowly without much movement and Jefferson County is dropping population.

I definitely can see Conway and White counties added. I'm not so sure about Jefferson, especially since two counties were added to its MSA. There are many people though that live in Pulaski County and drive to Pine Bluff to work.

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I definitely can see Conway and White counties added. I'm not so sure about Jefferson, especially since two counties were added to its MSA. There are many people though that live in Pulaski County and drive to Pine Bluff to work.

I was under the impression that PB is struggling to keep its population adequate to keep its own MSA and that the temporary fixes of annexing the jails and counting the inmates, etc wouldn't be enough to sustain it. There is a lot of commuting both ways between Jefferson and Pulaski, mostly as you said from people living in Pulaski who work in Pine Bluff. Still, I-530 traffic in the mornings is pretty modest compared to that on I-40 between Conway and Little Rock.

I don't see Garland being added anytime soon. It has so many jobs and is self-sufficient though it is significantly interconnected with Little Rock itself. There is no job base in Saline County that its residents are commuting to and few Saline Co residents commute to Hot Springs.

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I was under the impression that PB is struggling to keep its population adequate to keep its own MSA and that the temporary fixes of annexing the jails and counting the inmates, etc wouldn't be enough to sustain it. There is a lot of commuting both ways between Jefferson and Pulaski, mostly as you said from people living in Pulaski who work in Pine Bluff. Still, I-530 traffic in the mornings is pretty modest compared to that on I-40 between Conway and Little Rock.

I don't see Garland being added anytime soon. It has so many jobs and is self-sufficient though it is significantly interconnected with Little Rock itself. There is no job base in Saline County that its residents are commuting to and few Saline Co residents commute to Hot Springs.

You're right about Jefferson County. That's why I don't understand why those two counties were added to its MSA. What happens when PB's population dips below 50,000. I guess it will get that new distinction that Garland County has. I believe it is a micropolitan statistical area.

And you're right, Garland County won't be added anytime soon. It is self sufficient. A lot more so than Garland county as you stated and Lonoke, Perry and Grant counties as well.

Edited by theman

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You're right about Jefferson County. That's why I don't understand why those two counties were added to its MSA. What happens when PB's population dips below 50,000. I guess it will get that new distinction that Garland County has. I believe it is a micropolitan statistical area.

And you're right, Garland County won't be added anytime soon. It is self sufficient. A lot more so than Garland county as you stated and Lonoke, Perry and Grant counties as well.

Any chance that Jefferson County might one day be enveloped into the LR MSA? The year isn't far off where Conway exceeds Pine Bluff in size, and Faulkner County is already notably larger than Jefferson, yet its part of LR's MSA. Conway is physically larger. A more extreme situation could be where Conway gets its own MSA and Pine Bluff is absorbed into LR's MSA. Oh who knows....its late and I don't really know what I'm talking about at this hour!!! :blink:

Oh, and I agree, no way Garland would ever be added. Too remote and independent. It doesn't owe its growth to Little Rock in any significant way such that Conway, Benton, Cabot, etc. have.

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Any chance that Jefferson County might one day be enveloped into the LR MSA? The year isn't far off where Conway exceeds Pine Bluff in size, and Faulkner County is already notably larger than Jefferson, yet its part of LR's MSA. Conway is physically larger. A more extreme situation could be where Conway gets its own MSA and Pine Bluff is absorbed into LR's MSA. Oh who knows....its late and I don't really know what I'm talking about at this hour!!! :blink:

Oh, and I agree, no way Garland would ever be added. Too remote and independent. It doesn't owe its growth to Little Rock in any significant way such that Conway, Benton, Cabot, etc. have.

Conway (Faulkner) won't spin off because it doesn't want to. It is really doing well with high-end professional jobs that are tied to it being a suburb of a city with some name recognition. I think Conway's identity is so well-integrated with LR now because of this that there is no question the MSAs will stay merged.

The issue with Jefferson is rather different as Pine Bluff has more of a sense of distinct identity separate from Little Rock and it has a deep sense of pride that is damaged enough by its decline. Culturally it is more like the rest of the delta than like Little Rock. In addition the high unemployment and poverty are bringing in government assistance and consideration for new federal facilities that PB would lose were it considered a LR suburb.

Jefferson joining the MSA would also hurt in terms of dropping income and educational statistics and raising unemployment and crime rates for the metro which would hurt the whole market's attractiveness.

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First time poster here. I've lived in central Ark. all my life, grew up in Hot Springs, then moved to the Little Rock area about 7 years ago.

I just thought I'd add to this thread by noting that Metroplan has put out their latest demographics estimates, I got my newsletter in the mail yesterday, and you can view it online at the following link.

http://www.metroplan.org/datacenter/2006DemR&O.pdf

Some population numbers from these estimates:

Little Rock - 189,133

North Little Rock - 59,777

Maumelle - 15,432

Sherwood - 23,873

Jacksonville - 30,430

Benton - 27,510

Bryant - 13,335

Cabot - 21,575

Conway - 53,079

Pulaski County - 375,087

Faulkner County - 101,524

Saline County - 98,902

Lonoke County - 63,196

Grant County - 17,486

Perry County - 10,492

LR-NLR Metro Area - 666,687

If these estimates are accurate, and current growth rates do not slow, the current LR-NLR 6-county metro should exceed 700,000 in the 2010 census, and Little Rock proper will be very close to 200,000. I'd guess we'll see a 2010 LR city population of around 193,000 or so unless the city adds additional population through annexation.

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Nice info. Something that i found interesting was that more people move to Saline county than Faulkner, Pulaski, Grant, and Perry combined.

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First time poster here. I've lived in central Ark. all my life, grew up in Hot Springs, then moved to the Little Rock area about 7 years ago.

If these estimates are accurate, and current growth rates do not slow, the current LR-NLR 6-county metro should exceed 700,000 in the 2010 census, and Little Rock proper will be very close to 200,000. I'd guess we'll see a 2010 LR city population of around 193,000 or so unless the city adds additional population through annexation.

Glad to have you here. I grew up in Little Rock, went to Conway for college and am in Dallas for two years but will return in a year.

There is a substantial amount of population that could be acquired via even modest annexation at the Chenal/Hwy 10 corridor and in far Southwest LR. The city's population could hit 200,000 even now if that were to occur. I have no idea what the city's annexation plans are in Western Pulaski, though.

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Glad to have you here. I grew up in Little Rock, went to Conway for college and am in Dallas for two years but will return in a year.

There is a substantial amount of population that could be acquired via even modest annexation at the Chenal/Hwy 10 corridor and in far Southwest LR. The city's population could hit 200,000 even now if that were to occur. I have no idea what the city's annexation plans are in Western Pulaski, though.

You know what will happen. When that gets brought up, all those people that potentially will be annexed will be all up in arms, but they will have no arguement as in essence, they use the city like everyone else, and as such, are just as responsible - in fact more responsible if you ask me - for supporting all of the city services, infrastructure and amenities that they benefit from just as everyone else does. This is why we should have a consolidated county government, so that this argument is mute and that the cities are supported by the tax base that actually use them.

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You know what will happen. When that gets brought up, all those people that potentially will be annexed will be all up in arms, but they will have no arguement as in essence, they use the city like everyone else, and as such, are just as responsible - in fact more responsible if you ask me - for supporting all of the city services, infrastructure and amenities that they benefit from just as everyone else does. This is why we should have a consolidated county government, so that this argument is mute and that the cities are supported by the tax base that actually use them.

I agree with the entire statement. I also think a consolidated government offers numerical advantages not only in economy of scale but also in obtaining new employers and developments.

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If these estimates are accurate, and current growth rates do not slow, the current LR-NLR 6-county metro should exceed 700,000 in the 2010 census, and Little Rock proper will be very close to 200,000. I'd guess we'll see a 2010 LR city population of around 193,000 or so unless the city adds additional population through annexation.

700,000 plus would be a nice barrier to break in 4 years - psychological if nothing else.

Another item to note from the report, we think of the "significant" growth of the outlying counties, at least percentage wise, but Pulaski County added about the same total amount of people as did Faulkner and Saline Counties. Pulaski is so large, it is represented merely as a 3.8% increase compared to their 18%. Total number of people are about the same.

Hey - did anyone realize that Pulaski County witnessed 33,000 births in six years? I guess it makes sense when you think about it. I guess I just hadn't thought about it!

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Again, back to MSA, Huntsville is just more than half the size of Little Rock, so to me its no surprise that its skyline is not impressive. Huntsville is more the size of Springfield, MO (which also has no skyline). Mobile is a better comparison, and there is - ironically - a sizeable high-rise currently under construction there that brings it more on par.

Huntsville does not have the metro population that Little Rock does and its is virtually midway between Nashville and Birmingham, two considerably larger metros than Huntsville and both are close enough that a lot of business and finance occurs in those two rather than Huntsville. Also, consider that Hunstville was a boomtown during the 50's and 60's thanks to the "Space Race" and NASA. It was surrounded by cotton mill villages in unincorporated Madison Co. that also bolstered the population when the boundaries were extended during the boom years. Much of Huntsville growth was horizontal and campus-like business parks are located near UA-Huntsville. Also, anyone stationed at Redstone Arsenal is included in the population of Huntsville.

A later post mentions the downtown of Mobile being impressive and the city is the most important between Tampa Bay and New Orleans and downtown reflects that. Baldwin Co, AL was classified as part of the Mobile MSA until 2003 and is the second fastest growing county in Alabama. Also Pensacola, Ft Walton Bch and Panama City, FL are regionally attached to Mobile as is Pascagoula,MS and to a lesser extent Biloxi-Gulfport, MS, which have slightly stronger ties to New Orleans.

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Huntsville does not have the metro population that Little Rock does and its is virtually midway between Nashville and Birmingham, two considerably larger metros than Huntsville and both are close enough that a lot of business and finance occurs in those two rather than Huntsville. Also, consider that Hunstville was a boomtown during the 50's and 60's thanks to the "Space Race" and NASA. It was surrounded by cotton mill villages in unincorporated Madison Co. that also bolstered the population when the boundaries were extended during the boom years. Much of Huntsville growth was horizontal and campus-like business parks are located near UA-Huntsville. Also, anyone stationed at Redstone Arsenal is included in the population of Huntsville.

A later post mentions the downtown of Mobile being impressive and the city is the most important between Tampa Bay and New Orleans and downtown reflects that. Baldwin Co, AL was classified as part of the Mobile MSA until 2003 and is the second fastest growing county in Alabama. Also Pensacola, Ft Walton Bch and Panama City, FL are regionally attached to Mobile as is Pascagoula,MS and to a lesser extent Biloxi-Gulfport, MS, which have slightly stronger ties to New Orleans.

I had read some comments about the removal of Baldwin County from Mobile's MSA on Skyscraper Page. Can you elaborate on why this occurred? I know people there thought it was odd. Did it get shifted to Pensacola or something? I'm not overly familiar with the area.

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If you look at the growth between 2005 and 2006 and carry that out the next four years you will see the following. NLR will have a population of 61,309 and LR will be 198,405. With an annexation LR could top the 200,000 mark. Maybe the citizens of NLR will rise up due to their electric bills and the revenue short fall in the city and vote to become part of LR. Mayor Hayes of NLR will then become a citizen of LR and will be voted in as the new LR Mayor.

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You know what will happen. When that gets brought up, all those people that potentially will be annexed will be all up in arms, but they will have no arguement as in essence, they use the city like everyone else, and as such, are just as responsible - in fact more responsible if you ask me - for supporting all of the city services, infrastructure and amenities that they benefit from just as everyone else does. This is why we should have a consolidated county government, so that this argument is mute and that the cities are supported by the tax base that actually use them.

The only thing that I can think of as to why Little Rock may not annex anymore land and people is because they would have to upgrade the infrastructure and the city doesn't have the money to do much with the infrastructure it is responsible for now. Also police and fire coverage would have to be expanded to cover these areas. The fire department already says it needs a few for stations in its current coverage area, and we all know the the police department is stretched too thin now. And with not much money to be added to these departments, annexation may not be on the minds of the mayor and board right now.

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Isn't North Little Rocks population on the decline, if so it would be more like 58k.

NLR went into decline in the first few years of the decade but since then has been regaining population.

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NLR went into decline in the first few years of the decade but since then has been regaining population.

NLR's population actually did get down to around 58k around 2003, but it should be back to 60k by next year and like was mentioned earlier, it will likely be 61k or 62k in the 2010 census. It appears that NLR found a couple of "holes" to grow through and the city is growing both east and northwest along I-40.

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NLR's population actually did get down to around 58k around 2003, but it should be back to 60k by next year and like was mentioned earlier, it will likely be 61k or 62k in the 2010 census. It appears that NLR found a couple of "holes" to grow through and the city is growing both east and northwest along I-40.

It also seems like the Crystal Hill/Maumelle Blvd area east of Maumelle has a lot of potential and though there's more commercial growth than residential I think some apt complexes are set to go up over there.

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It also seems like the Crystal Hill/Maumelle Blvd area east of Maumelle has a lot of potential and though there's more commercial growth than residential I think some apt complexes are set to go up over there.

This is true. They have expanded an apartment complex, I believe it is named River Pointe and another development called Frenchmen's Woods is going up near the Country Club of Arkansas not too far from the baseball/softball complex.

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Metroplan has released its population estimates for 2009.

Little Rock 193,482

NLR 61,788

Wow. Nice increases both. Additional comments and updates:

MSA - 696,746

If this is accurate, the MSA will most certainly break the 700K barrier for the '10 census, reflecting an increase of 86,000 over 2,000 - a 12.4% increase (over 9 years).

Pulaski County - 388,487

A new record, and solid growth of 27,000 above the 2000 Census...very nice trend. Doubt this will break 400K before the census. For the record, this is a larger increase than Faulkner County...just to put this in perspective.

Little Rock - 193,482

This is a new record for Little Rock, and frankly, the growth bucks the trend of peer cities in our region...doubt we'll break 200K before the '10 Census, but who knows. It's a 10,000 increase since 2000.

North Little Rock - 61,788

I believe this is also a reversal in trends for NLR, no? I'm pretty sure that at some point in the last 5-6 years, it had dipped below 60K.

Conway - 58,927

Will most certainly break 60K by 2010, and may likely pass NLR officially for the first time.

***Note: both Saline and Faulkner counties will exceed 100,000

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